The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Author: Ian Welsh Page 9 of 422

Don’t Make Buddies With The Christian Right

This piece from Amfang is worth highlighting.

The Iranian Revolution was supposed to be a victory for the people. In 1979, millions rose up and toppled the Shah, a U.S.-backed monarch who ruled through secret police, torture, and oil profits. It was a mass revolt. Workers shut down industries. Students marched in the streets. Religious leaders called for resistance. Marxist guerrillas fought in the hills. For a brief moment, everyone stood on the same side. But not everyone had the same goal. The revolution was real, but it was not finished. And what came next should haunt us.

The left was there. It helped lead the struggle. The Tudeh Party, the Fedayeen, secular radicals and Marxists all believed that Khomeini was an ally. He hated the Shah. He spoke against imperialism. He had the people behind him. The left told itself it could ride the wave of religious rage and steer it toward socialism. But Khomeini had his own plans. The clerics moved quickly. They created militias. They took control of the narrative. They positioned themselves as the true voice of the people. And when the dust settled, they turned their guns inward. The revolution devoured the very people who sparked it.

Political parties were banned. Leftist organizers were hunted, jailed, and killed. The Tudeh Party, which had cheered Khomeini just months before, was declared treasonous. Its leaders were executed. Its rank and file disappeared.

Remember that the Christian right thinks that everyone who ever participated in an abortion is a murderer. Remember that eliminationist rhetoric is dirt common. Remember that the Nazis didn’t kill Jews or Roma first, they mass murdered the left first, then liquidated ethnicities they didn’t approve of.

The Social Gospel was fundamental to both FDR and Theodore Roosevelt’s power, but that movement is dead. There is no powerful Christian movement in America that the left can cut a deal with. Even the Roman Catholic Church, while it has substantial overlaps on anti-war and social justice issues, must be considered dangerous. Remember that the Supreme Court Justices who are validating Trump’s over-reach and dismantling the Constitution are almost all Catholic. In American Catholicism social justice is important, but it is secondary to social warfare concerns.

The left and the right (the real left, Democrats are not left wing in any meaningful way) are fundamentally in opposition. The Christian right and the left overlap in “we hate the current system” and practically nothing else. And religious fanatics are “fundamentally” OK with mass murder of those they see as against their religion’s principles.

Don’t play patty cake or make alliance with the religious right. They want you dead.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

Oddly, Canada Has More Leverage In A Trade Deal Than Anyone Except Maybe China

Trump:

Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!

The current plan is 35% tariffs on everything not covered by the USMCA trade deal.

But here’s the thing: Canada buys more US exports than any other country in the world. In fact, ex-oil, we have a trade deficit with the US.

Canada is the only country other than China that has significantly counter-tariffed the US. One reason why is that Carney wants to build back Canadian industry and to reduce Canadian vulnerability to the American political fits. Since the US is where Canada get its goods, counter-tariffs act as subsidies for manufacturing.

While I tend to think Canada should be making up with China, it’s possible that Prime Minister Carney is keeping the trade relationship sour there to help Canadian manufacturing. After all, Chinese goods are even cheaper than American ones and Canada definitely can’t compete. (No one actually can, more on that later.)

I do find it funny, that Canada, which Americans think of as a “wimp” nation is one of only two countries counter-attacking Trump hard. I mentioned in the past that the idea that Canadian politeness meant weakness was wrong. It’s also very American to think that someone being polite or apologizing when it’s appropriate means they’re a wimp. Very American.

Meanwhile Canadian tourist visits to the US are way down, and US state Governors are squealing, as is Las Vegas.

You tell Canadians you have contempt for them and that you want to take over their country, and strangely enough, they don’t like it.

Maybe China and Canada can bond over their shared enemy. America.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

 

Yes, Human Population Needs To Be Lower, Not All Ways Of Doing That Aren’t Good

You wouldn’t believe some of the stupidity that I don’t let thru into comments. (Well, perhaps you would.) A recent bit suggested that I shouldn’t object to Gaza genocide because after all, I think human population should be lower, and this is lowering it!

After a bout of derisive laughter, I thought about it a bit and figured we need a bit of exploration of the overall issue. The original moron won’t understand, but others will.

Let’s lay it out simply. In population overshoot, a species winds up at numbers higher than what the environment can support long term. It’s not hard to understand this. If you need a breeding population of 1,000 deer to sustainably feed one wolf pack, and there are two packs, the wolves can eat into the 1,000 deer. They breed less, and enter a population death spiral and when there aren’t enough left to feed two packs, the wolves die in droves, or leave.

We, Musk’s fantasies aside, cannot leave, not in any time span that will be useful in the current crisis. Space might have helped a lot, not for colonization, but for resources, but after the moon landing America decided to starve the space program and the Soviets were entering their decline. Serious space exploration and any chance of space exploitation entered an over forty year hiatus and has only recovered in the last decade. Jingoism aside if space is truly exploited, it will be done by the Chinese, not by America or Europe.

If we were not in overshoot, the environment would not be degrading so severely: massive loss of insects, mammals, acidifying oceans, climate change, rain water that isn’t safe to drink, etc, etc… We’re eating into the carrying capacity of the Earth, producing more than the Earth can sustainably produce, and damaging the Earth in ways which will take ages to fix. Some of them, like loss of biodiversity, are not fixable on any human lifespan.

So, since we can’t leave, and since we can’t get enough resources from space to matter, and since we’re destroying environment that makes our survival possible along with drawing down resources at a ferocious rate, we’re in overshoot.

So, our population is going to go down one way or the other. Now if you read the media or spend time reading political or economic social media you’ve heard a ton about the replacement rate crisis. Virtually every country’s birth rate is lower than is required to keep up the population.

This graphic from Pew makes the point:

 

This is good. China having a population over 1.4 billion people is TOO MANY PEOPLE.

The transition will be difficult, because a smaller number of young people will have to support a larger number of old people. This is the actual use case for robots and “AI”, to care for people as they get older and make up the age gap. In a sane society, there would be no worry about “losing jobs” to AI because we wouldn’t distribute resources to people based on jobs. We would be happy to work less, to let people who want to not work at all to do other things, and to reduce hours and share jobs that still need to be done by humans. And if a human wanted to do a job that is mostly roboticized, unless they completely sucked, that’d be fine because the economy exists to serve humans, if you’re sane, not the other way around.

Both China and Japan have been moving hard to “gerontorobotics” (not sure if that’s a word yet.) They know there won’t be enough care workers, so they’re moving to robots which can help people live who are still mostly OK but just old, and they’re also working on robots that can help invalids and semi-invalids, including getting them into and out of bed, helping them bathe and use the washroom and so on.

Now, to go back to the original moron, all efforts to reverse the birth rate decrease are stupid at this point. The BEST way to lose population is to simply have people age out. Among major countries the only one which might reasonably make a case that it isn’t overpopulated is Russia. Among middle countries, perhaps Canada, though as a Canadian I don’t want more people. I like wilderness, this is fine.

Population needs to be decreased, yes, that does not mean we need to start mass murdering. Further, if we did want to eliminate any group of people it would be the top .1%, because they produce vastly more pollution and use up vastly more resources than others. (Not saying we should, but if eliminationism is your goal, radically reducing elites is where you would start if your motivation was actually to help the world.)

Get out of the way, and let reproduction rates keep falling. If we fall to two billion or so and they’re still too low, then feel free to panic. Right now, it’s a good thing.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

Real Time Iraq War Death Estimates Were Wildly Off

During the Iraq War, we were fed very low death estimates:

  • The Iraq War Death count had an upper estimate of 43,000 by the end of 2006.
  • The Iraqi Ministry of health and the US armed forces (really the same thing) said about 20,000 by the end of 2005.

But when the Lancet did a population study in 2006 they came up with about 655,000, and in 2013 PLOS revised that number down to 461,000.

Either way the Iraq War Death count was about ten times too small. The official count was at least twenty times too small.

The Gaza Health Ministry’s death count is simply not credible, especially as it has risen more slowly over time, which is the opposite of what one would expect as water and food, medical services and supplies and shelter have all become radically rarer as the genocide has continued. It is surely an undercount. The indirect to direct-deaths ratio is also likely to be higher than in previous wars. The US deliberately hit a lot civilian infrastructure in Iraq and dismantled the economic supply networks which had kept Iraqis fed, but it wasn’t going all out to kill civilians or trying to demolish every building in Iraq.

We are also now into the early stages of a famine, and the amount of aid that Israel is letting in is pathetically small, plus in most cases to get it Palestinians have to risk being shot, and all accounts are that a few hundred Gazans do indeed get shot every day trying to get a few scraps food.

The last official death toll number from the Gaza Ministry of Health was 59,866. Multiply that by ten, and you have a death toll of 600K, and that’s a conservative estimate, and is before the worst of the famine hit.

This is genocide. It is entirely deliberate and being done with the aid of most of the Western world. We now know that our leaders, had they been Germans in the 30s and 40s, would have gone along with the Holocaust and in many cases, enthusiastically participated. We also know that most of our journalists would have provided cover, along with most of our pundits. (Yglesias is a good example as is almost everyone at the New York Times, BBC, Washington Post and so on.) Britain, Germany and America in particular have gone after anti-genocide activists hard.

Out entire elite class is not just OK with genocide, they’re onside and actively helping it.

If you think they wouldn’t do it to you, you’re in lalaland. They’ve proved they are OK with mass murder, and even if you’re white, don’t think it would save you. Look at Trump’s massive health care and food cuts, or Labour’s Starmer taking away aid from disabled people and cutting off heating for old folks, not to mention both being completely callous towards the exploding number of homeless people. In America far more homes are empty than there are homeless people, yet all the vast majority of politicians do is criminalize homelessness more and more.

You aren’t even the dirt beneath your elites’ fingertips. The only reason you aren’t Soylent Green yet is they haven’t been able to figure out how to make it pay. But your deaths mean nothing to them if they have any reason to kill you, no matter how slight. Your suffering isn’t a consideration either. They’ve spent 50 years systematically reducing pensions, health care and increasing poverty so they could make themselves richer.

You’re just sheep. They’ll sheer you as long as they can, and when they have any reason to, they’ll slaughter you.

And not only won’t they lose any sleep over hurting and eventually killing you, they’ll feel good about doing so.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

JOIN OUR NEWSLETTER
And get new posts emailed to you once a day.

Europe Affirms Its Vassalage In Trade Deal With the US

This is a complete capitulation:

  • 15% tariffs on EU goods, 0% on US goods
  • EU to buy 750 billion dollars in LNG over the next 3 years (US LNG is more expensive than alternatives)
  • 600 billion EU investment in the US
  • 50% tariff on steel and aluminum to the US stays in place
  • A commitment to purchase huge amounts of US armaments

Japan has similarly capitulated, after previously standing firm.

Pathetic.

Ironically this leaves Canada as one of the only holdouts among America’s vassals. China, of course, has told the US to take a long flying leap off a short pier.

As I have noted before, the US has been cannibalizing its allies as it declines. This was true under Biden. Trump is only super-charging it. This cannibalization won’t change the trajectory, the US is DONE, but other countries accepting it means they will go down with the US

The EU was always in a hard place: it does export much more to the US than vice-versa. But it did have options, it just refused to take them. Cheaper energy from Russia is available, even during the war, Putin has been clear about that and it would mean much slower de-industrialization. Germany’s loss of industry has been, in particular, driven by high energy prices since the Ukraine war and the destruction of Nord Stream. German businesses which shut down in Germany have often moved to the US for the cheaper oil prices.

The way to strike back against the US was to hit America services: internet companies and break various copyright and patent laws. Hit the tax havens and take the money. (Ireland will squeal, but so what). This is where America really makes its money and it’s completely vulnerable. Meanwhile cut a deal with China, they’re the rising power.

The same is true for Japan, as it happens.

As Trump has shown, no deal is final. When politics change in Europe (and they will) this deal can be repudiated as the garbage it is. If that doesn’t happen soon, Europe’s decline will be much faster than it has to be.

What’s particularly interesting to me is the psychology of this. European elites are just so used to being vassals, and so completely without any pride (though they have plenty of vanity) that they are unable to stand up to America no matter what the humiliation. Russia was able to withstand far worse than what the US was doing, and even flourish, but Europeans can think of no way out but to capitulate. (To be sure, Russia had certain advantages the EU doesn’t have, but the reverse is true as well. The real issue is a lack of imagination and guts.)

Europe needs to get rid of its elite class, entirely, and find new leadership. Unfortunately it seems likely that they’re going to choose the idiot right, who will simply overcharge decline. After those morons fail, they may finally turn to decent leaders, but by then it will be too late to “save the garden” in most nations.

This capitulation has closed off one option: the third bloc. What could have happened is Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan and other affected nations forming a unified trade bloc of their own, and taking unified steps against America. Such a coalition would have won the ensuing trade war and could have cannibalized the US rather than the other way around.

It is a pity, but unlike many historical vassals who resent their status, our current leadership seems to enjoy being house slaves. So all of this will be done the hard and ugly way.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

 

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Uber’s Finally Profitable & Workers and Customers Will Pay Back Its Losses Fast

Uber started in 2009. It incurred losses every year until 2023 except for a profit in 2019 which was due to selling subsidiaries in various countries. Numbers before the IPO are difficult to obtain, but it lost 31.5 billion from 2016 to 2022. Let’s assume a loss of equal to funding during the pre-IPO period, so 24.7 billion. This seems reasonable, since Uber never made a profit during the period.

So we’ll estimate Uber’s total losses at 86.2 billion from 2009-2022.

In 2023 Uber made a profit of 1.9 billion and in 2024 it made a profit of a little under ten billion. Prices for rides on Uber are between ten to twenty percent higher than taxi rides, rising to as much as 50% higher during surge pricing periods (when there’s the most demand.) Driver’s on average, get paid less than taxi drivers used to.

So–the workers get less, the customers pay more.

The strategy, as many people noted, including myself, was for Uber and Lyft to drive taxis out of business by undercutting their prices. Uber and Lyft didn’t need to make a profit, while taxi companies did. Once they had gained dominant market share, they raised prices and took oligopoly profits.

Everyone knew this was the play, and that people were getting subsidized rides now (Uber was much cheaper than taxis in the early years) in exchange for getting fucked over later. Well we’re now in the sandpaper condom period of “ride sharing”, where investors earn back their investment by hurting everyone else.

This should never have been allowed. Uber and Lyft violated massive numbers of laws and were just allowed to do so thru non-enforcement. The end result was obvious and it’s here now: worse wages, higher prices and less ability to regulate the industry.

This sort of stupid is why everything keeps getting worse. Every part of the “sharing economy” (which is no such thing) has made the lives of ordinary people worse. AirBnB in particular helped drive the rise in rental prices in hundreds of cities.

All that most tech-bro firms do is find a place where there isn’t market power, and try to add it. Same with Private Equity, which buys up entire industries in order to form oligopolies and monopolies, as it’s doing in the housing market now.

Market power always means more money for a few rich people and higher prices and worse income for everyone else involved in any given industry.

Welcome to the tech-bro future and remember, Soylent Green is people and so are high profits, always.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

Ending Resource Separatism in Alberta and Canada

Alberta is a province in Canada with a lot of oil and a moderate but not yet dangerous separatism problem that polls a little below 30%. That’s far less than needed to win a referendum, but enough to support an insurrection or a large campaign of civil disobedience. It’s also a sufficient level of support for America to take advantage of in one of their patented color revolutions.

Though the level is higher than in the past, it’s nowhere near new. Growing up in the 70s and 80s in British Columbia I remember the anger.

Because there’s a lot of resentment in Alberta and out West in general it also gums up the works politically: the Premier of Alberta has been truculent and unwilling to join in on national efforts to resist Trump’s trade war, for example.

Alberta has oil. Lots of it. Most of it is crap, tar sands oil. It is because of Alberta oil that Canada has a trade surplus with America, in fact, we have a goods and services deficit.

Like all resource rich areas Alberta lives from boom to boom, and the good jobs are in the resource sector. At one time that resource sector was heavily taxed, but that’s far in the past and it is now heavily subsidized. So anything that seems to hurt the resource sector which the Federal government does, like environmental regulations or even renewable energy initiatives is resented. A lot of Albertans identify with oil company interests.

So, this issue needs to be dealt with. Its legs need to be cut out from under it.

The approach which will work is simple enough.

The federal government should either nationalize the oil industry or tax it at high levels when oil prices are high and take the money and just give checks to people in resource rich areas. (Not just Alberta, but also Saskatchewan in particular.)

Put 50% of profits or taxes into a sovereign development fund which invests in new non-resource businesses in resource areas in proportion to the income it receives from them (because resources always run out and one doesn’t want the West to turn into the Maritimes economically), and simply cut checks for the other 50% directly to people who live in the areas.

Make it so that the people of Alberta, Saskatchewan and other resource rich areas see the federal government as the one responsible for their prosperity and personal income, not oil barons.

Of course there are more steps which should be taken, but this is the first and fundamental one: reverse the underlying issue.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of this site’s articles, you might wish to Subscribe or donate. The site has over over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

JOIN OUR NEWSLETTER
And get new posts emailed to you once a day.

Page 9 of 422

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén