Ian Welsh

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It’s Difficult To Overstate How Concentrated Wealth Is In The US

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On November 10, 2025

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These two charts tell a story. First, the top .1%.

Next, the top 1%. This chart is only to 2023.

Now what you’ll notice is that the top .1% holds about half the wealth of the top 1%.

It’s like this all thru the economy. Everything is flowing to the top, because that’s how the economy is set up. This is sheer insanity, among other things, especially when combined with AI sucking up jobs, its likely to lead to a demand depression. Most rich people don’t get, but a few are waking up.

Meanwhile Trump just went to the Supreme Court to not pay for SNAP food aid. “Starve, peons!” History tells us that food riots are the greatest danger to rulers and it doesn’t take long for them to happen.

As I said before, there is only ONE issue now. Cost of living. People keep telling me Zohran style policies can’t win outside of NYC. Well…

And the Republicans have a shutdown going to make health care even more unaffordable.

Crazed.

Things are going to start changing politically now, and over the next few years. This is the change, which I said decades ago would start in the mid 2020s. Again, it’s here now, though there’s a lot of slogging to go. It’s not a sure win, of course. Neoliberals or fascists may win (more likely fascists), but really the two main options are left wing populism or right (fake) wing populism. The generational pivot is here, and the “we can’t take it any more, you’ve destroyed the middle and working class” is here.

Oh, and one more pretty chart: the effect of our AI overlords on electricity bills:

What can’t go on, doesn’t. There’s not enough middle class wealth left to steal. The US either un-develops or there is a radical change in politics. Either way, politics is going to get a lot more turbulent. There’s a reason why most Trump’s cabinet lives (hides) on military bases now. They know how much they’re hated.

Open Thread

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On November 8, 2025

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Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Mamdani Represents A New Era Of Political Conflict

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On November 5, 2025

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As everyone’s probably aware, Mamdani, a brown muslim social-democrat who has promised, among other things, to open city grocery stories, make transit free, a rent freeze on stabilized units (about 40% of New York’s apartments), universal free child care and to build 200K new apartments. He’ll pay for it with tax hikes on rich New Yorkers and corporations.

(Read Mamdani’s Victory Speech. Powerful stuff.)

Mamdani’s extraordinarily charismatic, with an upbeat optimistic style and rarely shies from fights (though he has backed down on Palestine.) He’s a good candidate.

But he won because he was laser focused on the affordability crisis: food, housing, transit and child care. For many years now I have said that voters in most Western countries want real change, and they will vote for anyone who seems to not be like a status quo politician and for any promise to overturn the status quo. Like a wolf in a leg trap, they’re so desperate to escape from a future of eternally lowering expectations, one in which they can’t afford a home, can’t afford kids, can’t afford holidays, and are even told not to buy expensive coffees.

Trump doesn’t come across as an establishment politician, so many people voted for him. Corbyn’s wave was based on this. Brexit was based on “ever since we’ve been in the EU things have gotten worse for ordinary people in Britain.” Yes, the EU wasn’t the reason (though it is a pile of garbage, it’s a less rancid pile than British pols who wanted out of it), but that didn’t matter. “Get ground into the dirt slower, peons” doesn’t sell any more.

So people will vote for Britain’s Reform, or Canada’s Conservatives, or LaPen, or Germany’s AfD. Nasty piece of shit fascists, all of them. But they act differently from establishment politicians, and people will vote for that, even if their likely policy are vile and stupid and cruel.

It isn’t just Mamdani who won yesterday, ever major race outside Texas when Democrat, and all the Democrats ran on affordability issues.

Now one of the tropes is that young men have gone right wing in most countries. There’s some truth to it, but less than it appears:

NBCNews exit polling on young men (18-29) in VA, NJ and NYC VA: Spanberger +14 NJ: Sherrill: +10 NYC: Mamdani +40

If young men were solidly right wing, this wouldn’t have happened. What they want is change. They’ll take right wing change if that’s all that’s on offer, but just as Bernie was projected to beat Trump in a direct competition, they’ll take left wing change preferentially, because left wingers offer hope (free stuff) that right wingers just refuse to match. The right wing offer is “we’ll kneecap your peer competitors: women and immigrants, so you do better.” The left wing offer is “we’ll help everyone and we’ll actually give you shit and actually stop prices from increasing.”

The left wing offer is better just on straight up self-interest. And a lot of people hate the rich far more than they hate immigrants, so the “and we’ll soak the rich” left-wing offer goes over well. It’s also more realistic because it is the rich who actually destroyed America’s prosperity, and to the extent immigrants contributed, it’s because the rich used them force wages lower: the classic strategy of “pit one half of the working class against the other half.”

Alright, so that’s why Mamdani won. But what now?

New York city is a “creature of the state”. Kathy Hochui, the governor, and the NY State legislature have veto power over essentially everything Mamdani wants to do. Hochui endorsed Mamdani, BUT while she agrees with his policies, there’s one big exception: she doesn’t want to increase taxes on the rich and corporations, and she effectively has a veto.

So what’s likely to happen is that she kneecaps Mamdani by making it so he can’t get the money to do all that he wants to. (Saying you agree with Mamdani while making sure he can’t deliver isn’t actually agreement. It’s an attempt to pander to the left while still getting rich by actually protecting the oligarchy.)

Trump has said that he will cut funding to New York and we can expect the standard ICE and border patrol invasion.

Mamdani’s going to face to tidal wave of elite opposition to what he wants to do. If he’s to be successful, and the first exemplar of a new wave of left wing politicians in America (America’s only chance of a decent future) he has to figure out a way to still deliver on enough promises (rent freezes, for example) so that New Yorker’s feel better off AND he needs to frame his losses as because of enemy action which can be defeated in the future by electing his allies as New York state governor, to the state legislature, and to federal offices. He needs to become the linchpin of a larger movement. He cannot be seen as a failure, he must appear as a fighter who has some victories and part of a movement which can win overall.

All of this is possible. People hate, hate, hate the elites in America. Attacking landlords, health insurance executives and politicians who cover for them and want them to get even richer is popular. Taking action against them in whatever ways are possible is adored. Mamdani is lucky in this: his enemies are loathsome parasites who aren’t satisfied being the richest rich the world has ever seen, they want MORE and they want to take it from everyone else.

Mamdani knows a fight is unavoidable, so he’s squaring up and framing the fight as a mass fight against a corrupt bully. (From his victory speech.)

So Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up! We will hold bad landlords to account because the Donald Trumps of our city have grown far too comfortable taking advantage of their tenants. We will put an end to the culture of corruption that has allowed billionaires like Trump to evade taxation and exploit tax breaks. We will stand alongside unions and expand labor protections because we know, just as Donald Trump does, that when working people have ironclad rights, the bosses who seek to extort them become very small indeed.

New York will remain a city of immigrants, a city built by immigrants, powered by immigrants, and as of tonight, led by an immigrant. So hear me, President Trump, when I say this. To get to any of us, you will have to get through all of us.

What Mamdani represents is America’s last hope. If the movement he exemplifies loses, America’s future is to slowly un-develop, becoming more akin to Brazil or India than to developed nations. Vast numbers of homeless, desperate workers, extended new slums and people absolutely desperate for food, healthcare and housing. In this he is similar to Corbyn: the last chance for America to turn it around before the shit hits the fan. If this movement fails, America fails. It may be able to get back up again, sure, but it will be far harder to do in twenty years than in three or seven years.

While it is in everyone’s interest, including over 90% of Americans for the American Empire to end, having America become a failed state, its likely prospect if current trends continue, will be horrific.

Avoiding that is, to a remarkable degree, on one Muslim social democrat’s shoulders.

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The State Of Play In Late 2025

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On November 3, 2025

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Let’s run thru the important points:

Domestically in the US the only issue that really matters is affordability. Food, housing and medicine. This will dominate the next few years, maybe even the next decade. Mamdani will win, he will be blocked from doing much of he wants by courts and the the State and federal government, and his future will depend on him making those who stop him the villains. The mid-terms and the next election will be fought in bread and butter issues.

China is going to win the AI race, as predicted. 

This is, again, because Chinese models are at least 90% cheaper to run, and mostly open source. Only a complete and utter moron would run their business using proprietary models where OpenAI or Anthropic can jack up the price any time they want or depreciate the model you actually needed. Even US startups agree, 70 to 80% of them are using Chinese open models.

American AI either bursts or causes a great depression. Or perhaps bursts and causes a depression. There isn’t any other possibility. They’re spending trillions so American business can mass replace their workers. If it works, it causes a demand depression, a great depression like the Great Depression of the 30s. Who the hell do they think will buy their products? People can barely afford food and rent, let alone fancy AI crap. When they’re homeless they aren’t going to be customers. Meanwhile the rest of the world won’t be buying US AI crap either, they’ll be buying Chinese open source AI crap.

The War of attrition is nearly won by Russia. Ukraine just doesn’t have enough men and drones, it’s that simple. Next year, absent a peace deal, the big arrow moves everyone was wondering about will happen and Ukraine will be forced into unconditional surrender.

Europe is done. They’re losing their industrial base and their tech base. The people are unhappy and turning to populist opposition, either left or right. The Eurocrats are using lawfare to make outsider parties illegal if they look likely to win. This will take some time to play out. There will be changes in government away from neoliberalism, and if they can’t be achieved peacefully there will be a lot of violence. The EUs only play here is to try and gin up a war against Russia, but if they succeed, they’ll lose the war.

China and the US are now co-equal powers but that won’t last. China is on the rise, America is gutting its own science, arts and intellectual base while immiserating its own people and keeping smart foreigners out. (Or throwing them out.) All the big spend isn’t on re-industrializing, it’s on an AI moonshot which probably won’t succeed and will burst, or which if it does succeed will cause a Great Depression.

I will remind you that rich people have limited real power. They can buy a lot of influence, but if government turns on them they are done, because they do not have private armies capable of standing up to the State’s military and paramilitary forces. If the political zeitgeist turns against them, the government can make any changes it wants. Ask various Chinese billionaires how things worked out for them when the CPC decided they were too big for their britches.

One way they lose their influence is simply by having a real, undeniable depression. They’re doing everything they can to create one. If the Fed can’t bail them out, they’re done. The Fed’s ability to print dollars is going away, they have at most one large bailout left in them. After that, they can’t, because if the dollar isn’t the unit of trade for the world, over-printing will be catastrophic. Dozens of countries have found this out, again and again. Money can’t buy what your country can’t actually do, and the US can do less and less—the rich people sold America’s ability to do things to China to get three generations of fake wealth.

We are moving towards the end-game. It will take ten to fifteen years to play out. The West will be immiserated, neo-liberalism will end, US power and Empire will collapse. There will be wars and revolutions around the globe, because the force holding the world in its post-war, post-Soviet collapse state, including such things as borders, is going away. China is not likely to engage in massive military operations thousands of miles from its border and has shown itself uninterested in what happens in other countries domestically, unless they’re countries very close to it geographically.

Covid remains a thing, more specifically long Covid. We don’t measure it much any more, since governments don’t want to know, but there are multiple data points indicating its still disabling people. (I’ll do a proper article on this at some point.)

Likewise climate change and environmental collapse are real and so are resource issues. Farmland continues to lose fertility, the food-web is collapsing, the insects and fish and bird and everything else are dying and species are going extinct. This is going to cause huge problem. 1.4 billion Chinese cannot have a Western lifestyle without catastrophic environmental issues. If this is not dealt with (and it takes more than some orbital spraying to do so), the era of Chinese supremacy is not likely to last.

China will take the complete tech lead in essentially everything and they will also become the premier space-going nation. They have actually reduced carbon emissions, a good sign, and are massively planting forests. It’s not enough, but they are the only major nation taking these issues at all seriously. They look likely to start moving industry and power generation to space over the next 20 years and if they can get space mining and refining going, that offers some hope. (This is not space colonization, and the idea is to make it self-sustaining off world minus biologicals. Dropping resources from space is easy, getting resources into space is hard.)

The major geopolitical and economic issues I have been writing about for over 20 years are coming to fruition now and will play out over the next ten years. End of Empire. End of Neoliberalism. End of dollar hegemony. End of Europe. Western economic collapse. It’s all happening, exactly on schedule.

The glimmer of hope for Westerners is that political change is also coming. Put crudely, there are three possibility: authoritarian corporatism wins thru a nasty surveillance and police state; right wing populists take charge and go nasty and mean, or left wing populists take charge and actually try to help people.

The third world will find a great deal more freedom than they’ve had for a long time. China will be the superpower, but at least for the first while seems likely to be fairly laid back about it. These countries, if they cooperate with China intelligently, will have a chance to really develop, in most cases an opportunity to make it to middle income status, since they will no longer be forbidden from the policies required to actually develop, as was the case under the IMF/World Bank “development” duopoly.

This is where we are, and where we’re going. Tighten those seatbelts and make what preparations you can. Remember that things like power and water and food will become more and more unreliable. It’s been a long time since the West and westerners had to deal with such issues, but they will be on the plate for at least thirty to fourty percent of Westerners within fifteen years in nations which do not make the turn correctly, which seems likely to be the majority.

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Open Thread

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On November 1, 2025

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Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

The New Cold War Is Taking Form

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On October 31, 2025

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We’re near the end of our fundraiser, and now about $1,100 out from our fundraising target. If you read regularly and value the site and have the money to spare, please consider subscribing or donating. Over 10k people read this site every day, and it’s free, but it and Ian do take money to run. Huge thanks to all who have given so far, a number which is now slightly over 100 people.

This speech by Russian Secretary of State Glazyev is important, and underlines how the days of dollar hegemony are close to an end:

“The easiest way to stop the arms race is by ceasing the use of NATO countries’ currencies,” he stated unequivocally. “Because to the extent that we use the dollar, euro, and pound, we finance their defense expenses.”

He provided a staggering figure: “The total volume of [Western] monetary issuance last year was five trillion dollars. Of this, two and a half trillion dollars is what the Eurasian states, among others, have taken on. If we stop using these currencies… we will practically halve the financial potential of the global hybrid war.”

“In the US, their satellites have completely destroyed international law… The World Trade Organization is not functioning, the norms of the global financial system are violated, and the generally accepted norms of business ethics are ignored,” he said, endorsing the Belarusian-led “Charter of Multipolarity and Diversity” as the ethical alternative.

He announced concrete steps to build this new system, revealing that work is “already underway to create a large social network that would unite hundreds of millions, maybe billions of citizens, who are ready to adhere to traditional norms, ethics, and follow their commitments.”

But it’s not just about money. For example the Power of Siberia pipeline means more than a hundred billion cubic meters of natural gas, which once went to Europe, will now go to China. Europe gets to buy much more expensive American natural gas. African countries are kicking France and the US out, ending their base leases, at an increasing rate, and from Japan I read:

Japan must stop importing liquefied natural gas from Russia. It means developing alternative energy sources, including the restarting of nuclear power plants.

Even as the G7 countries are stepping up sanctions against Russia, Japan finds itself in the position where it is now procuring just under 10% of its LNG from Russia.

However, there is a chance that Japan will not be treated as an exception. US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has said that he is “expecting” Japan to cease energy imports from Russia.

Japan’s public and private sectors need to prepare to ensure that LNG availability is not disrupted.

Japan does roughly equal trade with the West, and with BRICS, with about a 2% edge to BRICS. This is a terrible position to be in, though I’d suggest that going with the rising powers rather than the falling ones is the way to go.

The problem is that America is forcing nations to choose. Playing both sides: trading with both, may not be possible going forward. There will be two payment systems, so simple financial sanctions won’t work, but other types of market controls like tariffs and import/export controls have come roaring back into use.

Trade that can be cut off or curtailed at any point, apparently arbitrarily, can’t be counted on. When one looks at America and China’s strategy, China’s is mostly “punch back”. They rarely initiate sanctions except in cases where a country chooses to side with Taiwan. America, on the other hand, is… erratic. One can’t make plans, because one never knows when the rules of trade may change.

This is another reason why I think joining BRICS and that trade bloc is the sensible move. The old “rules based order” as Glazyev has pointed out, no longer exists in practice: the rules change at a whim and aren’t fairly enforced. While this was always true to some extent (Canadians remember how the US just ignored rulings against it on softwood lumber) it has become so common that the rule is now “whatever the US wants, and who knows what that will be tomorrow?”

America is trying to force a clean split into two blocs. But the other bloc is richer, more trustworthy and arguably stronger. And if it isn’t stronger yet, it will be in a decade, guaranteed.

This also relates to America’s actions in South America, an attempt to try and keep the America’s “American”, which is bound to fail. But as the declining power America wants to use its military force while it still has local superiority and before China and Russia can sell or give local nations enough weapons to become effectively immune to US force.

This process is the culmination of one of the major themes of my writing for almost a quarter century. The US era of sole supremacy has now ended. It can no longer force China to do what it wants, and it can’t even keep the sea lanes open, as Yemen has proved.

The old era is dead. There will be a brief period of co-equality, then America and Europe will fade into has-beens. I thought at one point we might have a new real cold war. We will, but not for very long. America isn’t going to be as strong as the old USSR, it won’t be able to hold up its end, and its current policy is to bleed its vassals, especially Europe, white. That will make them virtually worthless as vassals and will most likely lead to a revolt sometime between ten and fifteen years from now, as the European standard of living collapses under de-industrialization and without its sub-vassals selling it under-priced resources.

Centuries of Western rule of the world are coming to an end, and the Middle Kingdom is resuming its accustomed role as the most important country in the world. It’s a fascinating change-over to live thru, if not much fun if one lives among the Golden billion, who are being demoted  to the Bronze or perhaps Copper billion.

Yes, Canadians Did—Did Think America Was A Friend & Yes, Trump Is Good For Canada

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On October 30, 2025

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These numbers are astounding:

36 per cent of Canadians currently view the United States as a friend, compared to 60 per cent at the end of 2020 and 89 per cent in 2013, and that 27 per cent of Canadians presently view the U.S. as an enemy, a number that stood at 11 per cent in 2020 and as low as one per cent in 2013.

Notice that 1% figure regarding the US as an enemy in 2013, and 60% viewing it as a friend as late as 2020. When I say I was a lone voice screaming that we couldn’t trust America, I’m not exaggerating by much.

My position was half “America has never been trustworthy to anyone, and it ignores NAFTA rulings and destroyed our aviation industry” and half “countries have interests not friends.”

The moment it wasn’t in America’s perceived interest to be friends, it wouldn’t be, and empires are always implicitly enemies of their vassals, seeing them as useful tools, not friends.

But I want to emphasize how grateful I am to to Trump. If he had played along, given the appearance of friendship while slowly screwing Canada over, the way most recent administrations have, Canada would have gone along with it. If the past 45 years have taught us anything, it should be that people will tolerate a slowly eroding situation for ages, the metaphorical frogs in the slowly heating pot. (Frogs aren’t actually that stupid, not being humans.)

Canada spent the 90s and 00’s making nice with China, then reversed on a dime under US pressure, arresting the daughter of Huawei’s CEO for America and slapping 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Then came Trump with his talk of annexation and his lies about Fentanyl (the same lies being used against Venezuela, you’ll note. Trump is not very imaginative. One lie for all seasons.) The truth is that Canada is exactly the sort of trade partner that America should want: yes we have a surplus, but it’s because we sell oil and minerals to the US. In the far more important manufactured goods area, we’re net importers.

If we were to cut the US off from Canadian crude, multiple refineries would be shuttered and there wouldn’t be enough gasoline. (Ironically, Venezuela is the other big supplier of the sort of heavy crude these refineries are set up to use.) You don’t want it? You don’t have to buy it, it isn’t competing with US crude.

But lately Trump may have gone too far for even Canadian politicians, though to be fair, Canada has been far more resistant to tariff blackmail than almost any other country except China. Japan and the EU buckled far more easily.

Two important events: first Stellantis said it was going to move a factory to the US from Canada. Reshoring industry and all that. Canada and America’s auto industries have been integrated since World War II under the Auto Pact. This is why Canadian politicians were ready to hit China with that 100% EV tariff, they were protecting Canadian jobs since Chinese cars are half the price of American made ones.

Then, in response to Ontario Premier Rob Ford’s ad quoting Reagan as against tariffs, Trump slapped on another 10% tariff on Canadian goods, and stopped all trade talks.

Thank God for Trump. Canadian politicians want to capitulate, if they can get surrender terms that don’t amount to “you won’t be re-elected” and he keeps not letting them.

So word is that the Feds are considering ending the 100% tariff. Presumably the idea is to try for the same sort of deal Mexico got: assembly plants in Canada for Chinese EVs.

If we can’t have American car manufacturing jobs, why not Chinese? Bonus, happy consumers/voters when they can get better cars for half the price.

Trump just keeps giving, just not to anyone who voted for him who isn’t worth 7 figures. Canada should have been pivoting to China hard years ago, and now, thanks to Trump it may well happen.

I just hope that after Trump gets on his knees and begs Xi to let him off the China trade war hook, that he doesn’t let us off the hook and give Canadian pols a way to avoid the pivot.

All praise Trump. He’s a genocidal monster, has the attention span of a dementia patient and betrays anyone stupid enough to trust him who can’t afford to bribe him, but he may just save Canada yet.

We’re near the end of our fundraiser, and now about $1,500 out from our fundraising target. If you read regularly and value the site and have the money to spare, please consider subscribing or donating. Over 10k people read this site every day, and it’s free, but it and Ian do take money to run. Huge thanks to all who have given so far, a number which is now slightly over 100 people.

Near The End of Our Fundraiser, About $2,200 to go

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On October 28, 2025

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Every year we do a fundraiser. This pays to keep the site and me running, and the site wouldn’t be viable without it.

If you read the blog readily, I probably don’t have to sing its praises but I’ll do so anyway, as a nod to tradition.. Generally we’re ahead of most of the media by years, often by decades. Everyone’s talking about the dollar losing sovereignty now, I’ve been noting its inevitability for a couple decades, likewise the rise of China. For years I noted that climate change would come in faster than expected, and so it has, with massive wildfires and way before the consensus. I said that Russia would win the Ukraine war militarily, and that’s on track. I wrote that semiconductor sanctions would not work, and so it has been. I warned about Rare Earths years ago, and noted that tariffs, as Trump does them, would boomerang.

Of course I’m not perfect, I get things wrong. I didn’t expect the fall of Syria for example, and thought that the Axis of Resistance would be more aggressive, nor did I realize the extent to which Mossad had infiltrated Hezbollah. Sadly, it appears I was probably right about how many Palestinians were killed, though I hope not.

This year readership at the site is way up. I’ve moved to more expensive servers (and we still have some issues with loading due to bot swarms scouring for material to train on.) Ever since Covid especially, more and more of us have been harmed by the terribly run economies of most Western nations: increased rent, lousy jobs, Trump’s moronic trade war and so on.

That said if you read regularly, you find the site useful, and giving won’t cause you distress, I’d appreciate if you subscribe or donate. We’re about $2,600 from our goal of $12,500.

Either way, be well. It’s been a long journey, but it’s been a bit easier, I think, taking it together.

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