The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

April 21st US Covid Data

Our benefactor notes that the mortality rate has flattened at 5.4 percent. Because of limited US testing, this isn’t the real percentage; subtract a little bit and you still get a sense of mortality rates for those severe enough to get tested and, in many cases, to wind up in hospitals.

Deaths per day is meaningful because this is effectively a count of deaths in hospitals plus other obvious Covid deaths (in some states). If it’s declining, less people are dying in hospital.

I don’t want to be premature, but the curve is bending. The problems comes from those states which have never moved to isolation and those states moving to quickly to remove isolation (such as Florida re-opening beaches and Georgia’s announcement of opening various businesses on the 24th). Reopening, in particular, causes a delayed effect; remember that Covid is asymptomatic at first and, for some people, symptoms never occur, but during that time the disease is spreading.

The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.


April 20th US Covid Numbers


The Sheer Awe-inspiring American Clusterfuck


  1. Benjamin

    But remember, we mustn’t be rude to the people and regions that are going to fuck the rest of us over by becoming resurgent pockets of plague, apparently.

  2. 11% of veterans with Covid-19 died when they received standard care — but the death rate rose to 28% when they were also given hydroxychloroquine.

    End of discussion, fish tank cleanser is not the cure.

  3. @Ten Bears

    From “A compilation of evidence on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in treatment of COVID-19

    Updated April 21, 2020

    By James M Todaro, MD”

    “Of note, it is unclear how long from time of symptom onset patients began treatment. However, with mortality rates over 10% in all groups (far higher than the national average among confirmed cases), it is apparent that this was a very sick cohort of patients likely in the advanced stages of illness. This is further evidence that late treatment with HCQ may have minimal or no benefit.”

    If you actually troubled yourself to look over the study, itself, you’d have noticed the following:

    “However, hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely
    to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status
    and metabolic and hematologic parameters. Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed
    in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin.”

    OTOH, they claim “We did, however adjust for a large number of Covid19-relevant confounders including comorbidities, medications, clinical and laboratory
    abnormalities”, so I wouldn’t dismiss this study, right off the bat, as totally misleading garbage. I.e., no socially redeeming value, at all. It may well be that giving hydroxychloroquine very late in the disease process (i.e., just the opposite end of the stick that Raoult and Zelenko did), in a ‘reasonable dosage’*, is worse than not using HQ, at all.

    So, why would I not feel confident saying even that much? Because, looking over the paper, I saw NOT A SINGLE WORD ABOUT DOSAGE. (Recall that the incompetents in Brazil killed a bunch of their patients, in their ‘study’, by using toxically high dosages of chloroquine.) So, the dosage of HQ, e.g., could have been too high, (or too low, though that seems unlikely), across the board. Or maybe even some of both. Too high, or too low, compared to what? Well, of course, I’d compare to the dosages used successfully by Raoult and Zelenko, as a first approximation to what an optimal dosage looks like.

    The Chinese added chloroquine to their formulary, for treatment against covid-19, back in February. Hydroxychloroquine is the drug-of-choice by a plurality (37%) of over 6,000 doctors polled by sermo, from around the world. And some Indian medical group or regulatory agency has recommended it’s use (I don’t want to go searching for the name.)

    Since, in your expert opinion, these people have been duped by “fish tank cleanser”, why don’t you organize an effort to contact them, and let them know that you expect greater things from them? I’m sure they’ll be thunderstruck by your acumen in things medical.

    * there is evidence that optimal dosage depends on the patient, and future protocols will assess blood levels of hydroxycholoroquine to adjust

  4. Ten Bears

    How many veterans died? How many lab rats … ?

    A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

    The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.

    The study was posted on an online site for researchers and has has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and the University of Virginia paid for the work.

    Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

    28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, vs 11% of those getting routine care alone. 22% of those on the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could affect survival.

    11% of veterans with Covid-19 died when they received standard care — but the death rate rose to 28% when they were also given hydroxychloroquine

    Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine.

    Researchers did not track side effects. The drug has long been known to have serious side effects, altering the heartbeat so that could lead to sudden death.

    I know, gotta’ break a few eggs to make an omelette.

  5. S Brennan

    Don’t bother metamars;

    You response was on point* but, Ten Feathers is a political hack, a hack that will endlessly lie, misrepresent and engage in personal attacks to insure that his world view is supreme on Ian’s blog [or at least…in his own isolated mind] all the while hanging next to some Hawaiian beach or wherever the F he lives…I’ve never read anything from him that is meaningful, just a crude interpretation of DNC’s jingoism.

    I visit Ian’s blog less and less because of the political hacks who seek only to publish their dicta. It’s sad that nothing can be rationally discussed anymore.

    We are in the middle of the worst crisis the world has seen since WWII and all political hacks can contribute is, a continuation of their efforts to divide one citizen against another through denigration and misrepresentation.

    *Anytime a single, poorly structured “scientific” study is touted as the final word on a subject…in synchronized headlines across the world…you are dealing political bullshit. And in this case, the purveyors of this bullshit will kill thousands to accomplish their goal of removing the President through any means necessary…except running a [D] candidate with a populist mandate.

  6. Way to go! You completely ignored the missing information about dosage, and disease timeline! I think you exhibit a real talent for either doing ‘science’, of the quality that you’re currently promoting; or else writing about it. Maybe you can even get a job at CNN, as a newscaster!

    Why don’t you further exhibit your science chops, by opining on the relative efficacy of administering hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin early in the covid-19 disease process (at least before the cytokine storm kicks in) vs. late in the disease process.

    This is an open book test. And, by all means, use all the bolding you want.

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén