The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: February 2016 Page 4 of 5

2016 Fundraiser

I am raising funds for 2016. The more I raise, the more I’ll write.

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There are also two specific goals this year:

  1. $6,000: I will write a series of eighteen book reviews. Twelve will be on books which have influenced my political, economic, and social worldview. Six will be more contemporary books about our societies and our future. If readers want me to review particular books, let me know in comments or e-mail me.
  2. $9,000: I will write and release an e-booklet (thirty thousand to fifty thousand words), The Construction of Reality. This book will explain how ideology, technology, geography, and other factors create the world we live in. This book will be free to anyone who donates during the drive (and available to others for a small fee).

You won’t, most likely, be receiving The Construction of Reality cheaper if you donate, mind. You will be ensuring, instead, that I write it. Some content will be familiar to long-time readers, but other ideas will be new and the entire booklet will be put together as a single, coherent piece.

Subscriptions will count triple for both goals.

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What Sort of Person Does Evil or Stands by While Evil Is Done?

Last month, the media reported on a young man who refused to stand by while a classmate was having an asthma attack and was suspended as a result:

Anthony Ruelas watched for what seemed like an eternity as his classmate wheezed and gagged in a desperate struggle to breathe.

The girl told classmates that she was having an asthma attack, but her teacher refused to let anyone leave the classroom, according to NBC affiliate KCEN. Instead, the teacher emailed the school nurse and waited for a reply, telling students to stay calm and remain in their seats.

When the student having the asthma attack fell out of her chair several minutes later, Ruelas decided he couldn’t take it anymore and took action.

“We ain’t got time to wait for no email from the nurse,” a teacher’s report quotes him as saying, according to Fox News Latino.

And with that, the 15-year-old Gateway Middle School student carried his stricken classmate to the nurse’s office, violating his teacher’s orders.

What sort of person is Ruelas?

Mandy Cortes, Ruelas’s mother, told KCEN that she assumed her son–who has been suspended in the past–was to blame when the school informed her that he had been suspended again.

“He may not follow instructions all the time, but he does have a great heart,” she said, noting that she was now considering home-schooling him.

The boy is, in other words, a troublemaker with authority issues. Thank goodness, eh?

I imagine most readers are familiar with the Milgram experiment, where university students were told to shock people by authority figures and most did so.


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I’ve always been curious what the people who refused were like, but oddly, that research did not appear to have been done.

Until now (h/t S. Brennan).

A new Milgram-like experiment published this month in the Journal of Personality has taken this idea to the next step by trying to understand which kinds of people are more or less willing to obey these kinds of orders. What researchers discovered was surprising: Those who are described as “agreeable, conscientious personalities” are more likely to follow orders and deliver electric shocks that they believe can harm innocent people, while “more contrarian, less agreeable personalities” are more likely to refuse to hurt others.

“The irony is that a personality disposition normally seen as antisocial—disagreeableness—may actually be linked to ‘pro-social’ behavior,'” writes Psychology Today‘s Kenneth Worthy. “This connection seems to arise from a willingness to sacrifice one’s popularity a bit to act in a moral and just way toward other people, animals, or the environment at large. Popularity, in the end, may be more a sign of social graces and perhaps a desire to fit in than any kind of moral superiority.”

…The study also found that people holding left-wing political views were less willing to hurt others. One particular group held steady and refused destructive orders: “women who had previously participated in rebellious political activism such as strikes or occupying a factory.”

Most people who are popular and too agreeable do not have strong red lines. Their morality is set by authority figures and peer groups. Whatever seems okay with the people around them is okay with them.

I wrote about this in the past in my post on the Decline and Fall of Post-War Liberalism. One key part of breaking an essentially egalitarian economic order was finding and destroying the people who wouldn’t go along to get along, the people who would fight.

Graph of incarceration in the US over time

From Wikipedia

This was done by creating a set of bullshit laws: Drug laws. Consensual activity which harmed no one (especially in the case of marijuana) was made illegal.

The sort of people who wouldn’t obey rules, laws, or orders that didn’t make sense to them disobeyed those laws and went to prison in droves, where they were destroyed politically, economically, and personally. The vast majority had committed no violence.

The gut was ripped out of America’s working and lower class troublemakers.

Since then, our method of child-raising has become one of high-surveillance. “Helicopter parenting” means children rarely spend time doing anything not approved of by parents or other authority figures. Police patrol schools. Children have cell phones, allowing their parents to check on them any time they want. Houses increasingly have internal surveillance systems to keep track of children.

People who are under constant supervision with little time to be alone or to be with friends without authority supervision tend to become “go along to get along” people, unused to thinking for themselves, and used to jumping through hoops for the approval of authority. Their entire lives have been about doing so, after all.

This is especially true of our elites, and while it’s usually been truer of them than the lower orders, it has become even more so than it was in the past. You could get into an Ivy league school in the past based on pure genius and talent; today you need excellent grades, an extra-curricular record which precludes alone time, and an essay which hits all the proper, authority-pleasing conformist points.

Society does not work for everyone when it becomes authoritarian and conformist. People are what they do, to a remarkable degree. We already had a system designed to create conformity (school is nothing but a conformity producing machine: sit down, speak only when called on, and do what you are told to do in exchange for adult approval and a decent future). The system we have now is even more designed to produce people who won’t stand up when asked, frankly, to be Nazis. Or torturers (an activity of which most Americans approve).

The troublemakers are the guarantors of your freedom and prosperity. When they are are broken, both will soon follow.

They were broken. Both followed.

Trump Is Viable in a General Election and Has Left-flanked Hilary

Donald TrumpHe’s a nativist populist.

Yesterday, during the debate he said that he wanted something even better than the single payer that Sanders is offering. Then he said that people are dying on the street (from poverty) and that he’d make that stop.

If Trump is the general election candidate, he left-flanks Hilary on economics. It is not even close. He wants bilateral trade deals (if you are anti-“free trade,” you want this too.) He does not want to diminish Medicare and SS. He wants universal health care.

His policy platform is pitched to appeal to the working class. They don’t like immigrants, and under the current economic regime, that makes sense: They are competing for the same jobs, and there aren’t enough jobs. I favor immigration, but you have to have an economy set up to deal with it.  Right now the US does not.

Trump’s got a minority problem. They aren’t going to vote for him.

But he has the ability to mobilize huge swathes of the white working, lower and middle classes.

He’s also less of a hawk than Clinton on foreign affairs.

A lot of people think he can’t win the primary, and he can’t win the general. I’m really not sure. He has the potential to be a real phenomenon. He parses as an outsider. He feels like a “conservative,” but his actual economic policies are left-wing and populist.


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He gets past, then, as many Americans desire to vote for the conservative. He will peel off a chunk of people who would usually vote Democratic for economic policy reasons. He is more credible on SS and Medicare than Clinton, which will appeal to the olds.

Steal Bernie’s free college plank (or offer something close to it), and he could clean up amongst youngsters as well.

Nothing’s guaranteed, but…

And, for the record, I think he’s more palatable than Cruz, the other front-runner. It isn’t like either of them are good candidates from my point-of-view, but Cruz is saying even crazier things than Trump, without any of the good stuff, and appears far, far more severe.

Both, are, of course, scum. Trump fell over himself to talk about how he’d torture yesterday, and I’ll have no truck with such.

But amongst evils, he’s not the worst, and that’s what American elections are about.

Pick yer poison.


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The American Death Wish

I wrote this article January 19th, 2009. Obama had just been inaugurated, we knew who his economic team would be, his Chief of Staff (Rahm Emmanuel), and we knew the basics of the stimulus package. 

I knew, then, that the last opportunity for America to avoid catastrophe, as opposed to mere disaster, had passed, and so I wrote this article. It has held up well, and the predicted decline in standards of living is well underway–sooner and faster than even I expected. 

Enjoy.

I’ve been struggling with how to write this post for quite some time. It’s the conversation you have to have with a friend, where you have to say something like: “It’s nice that you’re trying as hard as you can George. I even believe you are, but it doesn’t matter. Because, George, your best just isn’t good enough.”

Or, as Captain Jack Sparrow would put it, all that matters is what a man can do, and what a man can’t do.

Sometimes the world doesn’t grade us on a curve. You need to jump a fence, and you can’t. You need to climb a rock face, and you aren’t good enough. You’re running away from a bear, and you don’t run fast enough. And now you’re dead. You wanted to get into a good grad school, but you don’t have the grades or test scores. You’re in a fight, and the other guy wins, and you wind up on the ground, and he puts the boots to you, and you’re crippled for life. You tried “your best,” but you lost and you’re going to pay the price for losing for the rest of your life. Maybe you lost because he fought dirty, and you’d rather take the chance of being crippled for life than kick someone in the balls. Maybe you lost because he trained harder than you, while you were out drinking with your friends.Or maybe you needed to pay for health care, and you didn’t have the money, and someone you loved died. And they died because you didn’t have the money–because your country didn’t have universal health care. And maybe you always worked as hard as you could, and you campaigned for health care with all your heart. It doesn’t matter, your child, your wife, your husband—they’re still dead. Your best wasn’t good enough.


(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year.  If you value my writing, and want more of it, please consider donating.)


Now this is where America is. This is the real world. The United States in aggregate has been living beyond its means for over 30 years now. You have been shipping the real economy overseas. Ordinary families have been going in debt. The government has been going in debt. You’ve been voting yourself lower taxes and not paying for infrastructure reinvestment, or education, or anything else that matters, really. You’ve been spending too much money on guns, not enough on butter. You’ve been pushing the bill off into the future.

And whenever I write about what needs to be done to fix this, about simple things like universal healthcare, which we know for a fact reduces health care costs by 1/3, because it has worked for every single other country that’s ever done it, people come out of the woodwork and they tell me that’s not “politically feasible.” Or perhaps I suggest a 55 mile an hour speed limit, “That’s not feasible.” Or I might suggest spending significantly less on the military, as half the world’s military spending is a bit overboard. “That’s not politically feasible.” Or raising taxes, “That’s not feasible.” Or…but why go on, the list is endless.

Then Obama comes out with a stimulus bill which simply will not do the job. It is not big enough. It is not adequately well-constructed. It has no vision. It won’t work. This isn’t really in question: Even their own report(pdf), which has its thumb heavily on the scale, shows it won’t work if you take the time to look at the job charts.

A lot of people think this is some academic debate that doesn’t matter in the real word, like, “How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?” It’s not, it’s deadly practical. The US is in severe decline. It is past the point where any other country would have flamed out and had an economic collapse (Argentina collapsed with better numbers than the US has now, for example). But, because of America’s privileged position in the world, it’s been able to stagger on.

Now, folks can say, “Ian those things aren’t necessary, I think the following steps will fix it” and that’s fine. I could be wrong. Obviously I don’t think so, or I wouldn’t write what I write, but, hey, plenty of people have been dead certain they were right, and were dead wrong.

But what gets me is that so often what I hear is this refrain: “That isn’t politically feasible. We can’t do that.” Now, when they says “can’t,” they don’t mean, “Those things are impossible” or, “We don’t have the means,” what they really mean is, “We won’t do them, because they would be hard or they’re outside our ideological comfort zone.”

Fair enough. But if those things are necessary, and if you don’t do them, then the consequence is going to be catastrophe. I don’t mean disaster. New Orleans was a disaster, and it wasn’t enough to wake America up. The current financial crisis was a disaster, and so far it’s looking like it wasn’t enough to convince people that real, fundamental changes are needed.

So because no one will do what is necessary, catastrophe will happen. What I mean by this is a severe decline in the US standard of living, probably between 20 percent to 40 percent, starting in 4 to 6 years and taking place for a decade. It might happen sooner if folks keep refusing to do what needs to be done to fix the financial crisis and stop it from turning into a worldwide Great Depression. Even before that happens, you’re going to see real wages declining for Americans while their assets collapse in price.

To see what a precipitous decline in standard of living is like, read up on Russia’s history in the 90’s. A lot of people will die of starvation, cold, heat, lack of medical help, and from violence.

That’s just the way it’s going to be. Because while there are no problems that America has that America can’t fix, it also appears that there are no problems America has that America is willing to fix properly. And it doesn’t matter why. It just doesn’t matter, just as the bear doesn’t care why you couldn’t run fast enough when it mauls you to death. When the economy finally goes into full bore collapse, when all the bills come due and everyone decides to stop paying Americans to consume, it won’t matter why Americans thought they could suspend the economic laws of gravity forever and live beyond their means for decades.

It just won’t matter. You can do what it takes to fix the problems or you can’t. If it’s true that you can’t, then I quite seriously, sadly, and with utmost sincerity, suggest that you either start learning how to survive in a societal meltdown, or you get out, or you hope that your number comes up in the next few years so you don’t have to pay the bill that comes due when people think they can live in fantasy land, on credit, forever.

America elected Barack Obama. He’ll have, essentially, two chances to fix things. He’s failing the first one already, with his botched stimulus bill and that’s going to be disastrous. If he fails the second one, that’ll be catastrophe.

So I sure hope that, yes, America can.


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Problems with Economics: The Cult of Utility

I first took Economics in Grade 11. We used the standard college textbook at time, written by Lipsey, Steiner, and Sparks.

It started with axioms–the assertions upon which economics are based. The most important axiom  was the following: Humans act to maximize utility.

Utility.

What is economic utility? It’s generally defined as how useful a product or service is to someone.

How do you find out how much utility an item has?

It is a revealed preference. That is to say, how much utility something has is shown by how much people buy it and how much they are willing to pay for it.

So, Coca-Cola has vast economic utility, for example, but it has less than it used to have in many countries, where people are buying much less of it.

Basically, utility says, “Whatever action people choose to take is the one from which they derive the most usefulness.” This is known as revealed preference.

This is a circular definition; metaphysical in the worst sense. Any action we take is utility maximization. A person can never fail to maximize utility (within their budget), because their actions are what defines the actions’ utility.


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People are utility maximizers. Whatever they do is meant to maximize their utility, therefore anything they do is maximizing their utility.

Note that utility is not happiness. It is not health. It is not meaning. It is not pleasure. It is not avoidance of pain.  It is not self-satisfaction. Utility boosters would claim that it includes all these things.

But you can’t measure utility except as price and behaviour. “If they do it, it must have maximal utility for them.”

This is based on another axiom of economics. “Humans are rational.” This axiom has been hit badly in modern economics, but it still underlies most of the models.

Note that utility is always measured as whatever actions people take. This allows no room for self-destructiveness (they must want to be self-destructive!), now does it allow room for not knowing what is good for oneself, for making bad decisions, for doing things which makes one unhappy, and so on.

Utility is not independently measurable. We can (sort of) measure happiness, or pleasure, or meaning, or physical health. We could then ask, “Do these actions actually produce any of these things?”

For example, money produces quite a bit of happiness up to the point where you have everything you need and some security. After that point, it doesn’t produce much compared to other things like having a loving spouse, say.

If we said, “Humans act to increase their happiness,” a common assertion in philosophy, we would have some way of measuring that, albeit roughly.

We cannot measure utility maximization, because utility is always maximized.

This is a statement of belief. “People must do things because they know those things are useful to them in some way, and they must choose that which is most useful.”

Well, no, no they don’t. You don’t need a Ph.D. to know that, you just need to have lived life and seen that people often don’t know what would improve their situations, and, when they do, they often choose not to take those actions, even when they could and often when they wish they would.

Utility maximization doesn’t make sense. Utility itself is a concept with no “useful” definition. Trying to use utility as a concept in the real world leads to circular bullshit: “Well, people are doing these things, therefore, they must be the best things for them even if they don’t seem to be. Who are we to ban trans fats in the face of revealed preferences?”

This leads to all sorts of arguments that take the form of, “Well, yes, we know X has a bad effect on people, but they have chosen X, so, therefore, we should not interfere.” This scales from drinking pop, to borrowing money for college, to activities which have caused global warming.

Actual decision-making, if it is to be rational, depends on an individual knowing their actual objectives re: the decision. Do we want more happiness? Do we want love? Do we want to be healthy? We can measure those things. (On an individual level, yes, even love. I know when I’m in love–though I grant I used to mistake infatuation for love. Still, infatuation was closer to love than not.)

As a society, we probably want to satisfice. We can’t actually measure progress in utility. We can measure progress in happiness, health, childhood mortality, and even in meaning. We can measure infrastructure deficits, and pollution, and global warming, and income mobility.

Utility is best used when you turn it into a basket of “good stuff” and measure those good things.

As for market economies, for capitalist economies, they work best when you take money (price) and you say: “The more people have of this the happier they should be.” As for “utility” maximization as a society, if money is leading to that basket of goods, you try and get everyone past the point where utility starts to sharply decline.

At that point, you work on policies which directly benefit various metrics. Do parks make people happier?  Build park. Does more free time make people happier? Give them more free time. Does less chronic disease make them happier (or less unhappy)? Work on that.

How do you work on those things? You progressively tax people who are above the utility inflection point. If $40K/year is where your inflection point is, you don’t tax people who earn that amount or less, and you increasingly tax people above that.

“Any income above one million has a negligible effect on measured utility (the basket). Therefore, we are taxing you at 95 percent and will spend that money on activities which do increase ‘utility.'”

Because increased inequality decreases various, actually measurable, criteria such as health, happiness, and life-satisfaction, there is even an argument for a simple, 100 percent cutoff point. “Any income beyond this point makes you worse off, and makes society worse off.”

As for utility, as it currently exists, it is a form of Panglossianism. “Whatever a person is doing, that must be what is best for them!” We know that’s bullshit in social terms (this is not the best of all possible worlds, unless it is the only possible world), and we know it’s bullshit in terms of individuals because we all know people (and maybe are people) who could have been far better off if we’d done a few things differently or if society was a little different.

Economics, as a discipline, has some useful things to say, but it was created in an attempt to mimic not just the sciences too closely, but to mimic the certainties of Euclidian geometry and other axiomatic systems too closely.

And there is no such thing as utility in any useful, pragmatic, usable sense.


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Why Do Millenials Love Bernie Sanders?

This is not difficult. If you are a Millenial who goes or went to college and your parents aren’t rich, your life is dominated by debt from student loans.

If you haven’t gone to college, well, if it was free, you probably would.

Bernie wants to make college tuition free. Clinton does not.


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There are other parts to it, of course. Bernie’s policies are just generally better for young people, but this is the core.

This is not hard to understand.

I also find it amusingly hypocritical that the majority of Boomers oppose free college tuition, given that most of them benefited from a system which was so cheap it was almost free.

Failure Is the Precondition for Fascism

Nuremburg

Nuremburg

Well, not all the time, but it is one of the necessary preconditions.

More broadly, when the old regime has failed (lost a war, bungled the economy), then people are willing to try something else. This “something else” may mean electing someone like FDR. It may be allowing someone like Stalin or Hitler to rise to power. It may be opting to try Communism. It may be electing someone as mild as Corbyn.

Or it may take the form of someone like Trump or Cruz.

Unhappiness occurs during decline.

Decline. The US economy has been lousy for most people for decades. Since somewhere between 1968 and 1980. 1968 was the peak of wages for working class white males, for example. You are surprised they are unhappy? They have been in decline for almost 40 years.


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Women’s wages were rising through much of the period. They might be less than men’s, but they were rising.

Happiness is predicated on doing better than in the past. It doesn’t have to better by much, it just has to be better.

Since 2008, the economy, for the majority of the population (over 80 percent, over 90 percent by some calculations), has been bad. They have lost income. Their houses are worth less. They are less likely to be employed, much less have that lesser job.

They are ripe for fascism.

They are ripe for any sort of radical change offered by anyone who doesn’t parse; doesn’t feel, like one of the current set of elites. Trump does not, Cruz does not, Sanders does not. In Britain, where the situation is similar, Corbyn does not.

This is the beginning of the time of changes. Some countries will choose well, others will not, but the issues of how and by whom countries are run is in play–in a way it has not been in my lifetime.

Iowa Caucus Results

So, Cruz beat Trump by 4 percent —28 percent to 24 percent, with Rubio in at 23 percent.

Nice for Cruz, but all the sneering I’m seeing at Trump is way premature, winning Iowa is by no means necessary and he’s up over 20 percent in New Hampshire. Not to say this isn’t a boost for Cruz, but it’s not even close to over.

As of this writing, Clinton and Sanders are neck and neck in the popular vote, but, however it turns out, she’ll still have more delegates because the super-delegates will be hers. That won’t matter much, either; Bernie has shown he’s competitive, but there’s plenty still to go

Onwards.


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