Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 22, 2025

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On June 22, 2025

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 22, 2025

by Tony Wikrent

 

War

[TW: This is what the “globalist” elites centered on the City of London and Wall Street have been scheming for ever since Franklin Roosevelt told Winston Churchill at the 1943 Casablanca Conference that there would be no restoration of the British empire.

[Now that Trump has fully thrown in with the pro-war faction, we will learn if those who supported Trump because they believed Trump would be a foil against the “globalist” elites, accept the chastening of a hard lesson learned. More importantly, now that Trump has allowed the globalists to steer us into a war against Iran, will those who supported Trump be vigilant against Trump using the war to exercise his “war powers” and impose authoritarian measures on the USA population? What will they do if Trump responds to protests against this new war by declaring martial law?

[Building opposition to Trump and a newly energized militarized security state will be difficult and increasingly dangerous. One source of hope is to remember that while Trump and the security state consolidate police state rule in USA, reality continues. The massive misuse of citizens’ lives and national treasures will occur while climate change imposes rapidly escalating costs on “business as usual.” [See The $1 Trillion Climate Problem​ Republicans Are Ignoring, Kate Aronoff, June 19, 2025, in The New Republic] As entire regions are forced to cope with weather risks without any insurance and entire cities struggle to obtain enough water, there will come a time when reality can no longer be ignored. Reality itself will compel the restoration of systems of governance that protect and nurture all human lives, and the General Welfare of all citizens, and justice for all. ]

 

Clash of Civilizations

[Wikipedia]

Kit Klarenberg, June 18, 2025

Trump official to The Grayzone: CIA’s Ratcliffe acts as ‘Mossad stenographer’ on Iran

Max Blumenthal and Anya Parampil, June 21, 2025 [The Grayzone]

A Trump official tells The Grayzone that Israel’s Mossad is using CIA Director John Ratcliffe and US CENTCOM’s Gen. Michael Kurilla to influence Trump with cooked intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program. Inside the White House, dissenters have been isolated, setting the stage for a regime change war that could cost American lives.

 

War With Iran 

Craig Murray, June 20, 2025

For 18 years, the Iranian nuclear programme has been one of the top 10 targeting objectives of the US intelligence services….

It is worth noting – and a prime example of how the neoliberal world works – that the next head of MI6, Sir John Sawers, is now an executive of British Petroleum. That company controlled Iran for decades, installed the fake Pahlavi “Shah” in 1921 and engineered and financed the coup that ended democracy in Iran in 1953. The appalling dictatorship of the Shah after that led directly to the theocratic revolution.

BP desperately want Iran’s oil back, so ex MI6 Head Sawers has been all over the airwaves advocating war on Iran. Meanwhile it is not an accident that two days ago, a new Head of MI6 was chosen and installed. Starmer has found his Dearlove.

The appointment was made by David Lammy. Blaise Metreweli was chosen ahead of more obvious candidates, who had served longer in MI6, had more operational experience, and were better analysts or better managers. However Metreweli – who spent much of her career in the Middle East – is a fanatical Zionist. She worked closely with Israel on technologies for surveillance and assassination….

 

Iran halts 20% of global oil flow with Strait of Hormuz shutdown after U.S. strikes

 

The AI That Triggered a War: How Palantir and the IAEA Fueled Israel’s Strike on Iran

Sarah B., June 19, 2025 [DD Geo-politics, via Alastair Crooke]

Since 2015, the IAEA has relied on Palantir’s Mosaic platform, a $50-million AI system that sifts 400 million data points—satellite imagery, social media, personnel logs—to predict nuclear threats. On June 12, Iran leaked documents it claimed showed IAEA chief Rafael Grossi shared Mosaic outputs with Israel, effectively turning the agency into a “tool for aggression.” The charge echoes a pattern: prior to 2025, Mosaic data helped shape sanctions and even UN aid decisions despite risks of bias.

Palantir, co-founded by Trump ally Peter Thiel, powers IDF targeting in Gaza and Ukraine’s battlefield AI. Its IAEA role, meant to ensure compliance, now teeters toward militarization. As Iran halts monitoring and threatens to expose Israel’s nuclear secrets at Soreq, the stakes are apocalyptic. This investigation asks how Mosaic became a war pretext, why Israel needed a cover story, and whether privatized AI now threatens global peace.

 

Friday Video Tsunami… It’s All About Israel, Iran and Trump

Larry Johnson, 20 June 2025 [Sonar 21]

From my contacts within the US military, all signs indicate that we’re on-the-luge (a fast snow sled) at this point and there’s no way to get off. We are hurtling downhill… too much is already in motion. Even if Trump decides tomorrow to call everything off, we’ve already set up and committed enough support assets so that the Israeli Defense Force has everything it needs. Reversing course seems very unlikely now because of bureaucratic momentum.

 

Trump Reportedly Greenlights Plan for US Attack on Iran Without Congressional Approval

Yves Smith, June 19, 2025 [Naked Capitalism]
Jim Stewartson, June 17, 2025 [MindWar]

WHAT I HAVE BEEN TOLD IS COMING IN IRAN

Seymour Hersh, June 19, 2025 [www.defenddemocracy.press/]

This is a report on what is most likely to happen in Iran, as early as this weekend, according to Israeli insiders and American officials I’ve relied upon for decades. It will entail heavy American bombing. I have vetted this report with a longtime US official in Washington, who told me that all will be “under control” if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei “departs.” Just how that might happen, short of his assassination, is not known. There has been a great deal of talk about American firepower and targets inside Iran, but little practical thinking, as far I can tell, about how to remove a revered religious leader with an enormous following.

I have reported from afar on the nuclear and foreign policy of Israel for decades. My 1991 book The Samson Option told the story of the making of the Israeli nuclear bomb and America’s willingness to keep the project secret. The most important unanswered question about the current situation will be the response of the world, including that of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who has been an ally of Iran’s leaders….

Jake Johnson, June 20, 2025 [CommonDreams]
[Military Watch, via Naked Capitalism 06-19-2025]
[The Intercept, via Naked Capitalism 06-20-2025]
[Intercept, via Naked Capitalism 06-21-2025]

Trump must help Israel finish the job to dismantle Khamenei’s regime – editorial 

[Jerusalem Postv, via Naked Capitalism 06-19-2025]

[Conor Gallagher: Provides a blueprint for regime change, in case there were any doubts, including:]

Forge a Middle East coalition for Iran’s partition. Encourage long-term plans for a federalized or partitioned Iran, recognizing that Khamenei’s theocratic regime cannot be reformed. Offer security guarantees to Sunni, Kurdish, and Balochi minority regions willing to break away.

Glenn Diesen [via Naked Capitalism 06-20-2025]
“The only path forward now is reckless escalation.”

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: From Perpetual Peace to World War 

Glenn Diesen, via Naked Capitalism 06-17-2025]

[Yves Smith: “Trust me, you must listen starting at 39:00.”]

 

True Promise 3: Iran Responds With Long-Awaited Hypersonic Retaliation 

[Simplicius, via Naked Capitalism 06-15-2025]

 

Israel Buckles as Iran War Shifts to New Drag-Out Phase 

[Simplicius, via Naked Capitalism 06-21-2025]

 

“behavioral signature of a missile defense interceptor entering logic collapse”

[X-Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 06-18-2025]

 

Iran Shoots Down Third F-35 Fighter, Captures Second Pilot: What Are the Implications?

[Military Watch Magazine, June-14th-2025]

Israel is running out of interceptor missiles. China’s export bans mean they can’t be replaced 

Kevin Walmsley [via Naked Capitalism 06-21-2025]

Gaza / Palestine / Israel

Israel’s attack on Iran: The violent new world being born is going to horrify you

Jonathan Cook, June 19, 2025

…With the Palestinians feeling increasingly isolated, choked by Israel’s siege and abandoned by the Arab regimes, Hamas staged a show of force, breaking out for one day from the concentration camp of Gaza.

Israel seized the opportunity to complete two related tasks: destroying the Palestinians as a people once and for all, and with it their ambitions for a state in their homeland; and rolling back the Shia crescent, just as the Pentagon had planned more than 20 years earlier.

Israel started by levelling Gaza – slaughtering and starving its people. Then it moved to destroy Hezbollah’s southern heartlands in Lebanon. And with the collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, Israel was able to occupy parts of Syria, smash what remained of its military infastructure, and clear a flight path to Iran.

These were the preconditions for launching the current war of aggression on Iran…..

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Wars Metastisize

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On June 22, 2025

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The title says it all. So did Clausewitz.

We committed an act of war against a sovereign state that had every right to peaceful nuclear power.

Tulsi Gabbard told Donald Trump in March that Iran had NO nuclear weapons program.

There is a huge difference between radio medcine and nuclear power, and a nuclear weapons program. Iran has the former by legal right under the NNPT and does not, nor has plans for the latter.

This war will spiral out of control, just like the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in July 1914.

Prepare yourselves. We will all suffer before this is over.

Open Thread

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On June 20, 2025

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Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts (no Iran/Israel war).

The Next Big One

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On June 19, 2025

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Several months ago, I wrote two essays on Russian grand strategy. (My apologies on never completing the nuclear one, an extremely necessary but far too grim subject for my taste.) In that series of essays, I made a few assertions I want to bring to your attention again in a more contemporary context. First, that wars’ result tends to confirm the strengths of the coalition arrayed against the main combatants before the war has even started. This is, in fact, not an assertion, but an iron law of warfare that still exists in chimpanzee warfare. See Strategy: A History, Chapter One, by Freedman if you disagree.

Second, that big global dustups tend to run in about 100 year cycles these days.

So, take a look around — got a big, hot war in the Ukraine slightly analogous to the Sino-Japanese war of the 1930s. Next, you got weird, unresolved shenanigans in the Middle East that have a weird reverse-appeasement type feel.

We’re quite possibly looking at the two opening battles of WWIII, right now.

No, Iran Didn’t Target a Hospital (+Iran Update)

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On June 19, 2025

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Israel uses hospitals as human shields for their military targets, which is what they claimed Hamas did.

#SorokaThe hospital is located between two major Israeli military sites: the IDF’s main intelligence headquarters and a central command facility, both of which are situated in the Gav-Yam Technology Park. These installations reportedly serve as critical hubs for Israel’s cyber operations, digital command systems, and military intelligence infrastructure (including IDF C4I and C4ISR systems). While the hospital sustained shockwave damage from nearby blasts, it was not directly hit, Iranian reports emphasize.

Sororka is the primary hospital for military casualties, I understand, but it wasn’t targeted. It got hit in the blast.

Now, of course, for Israel to be complaining about a hospital attack is ludicrous. Wikipedia has a list of Israeli attacks on Gaza hospitals. There are dozens.

My post on the initial attack on Iran noted how serious Mossad penetration was. What’s interesting about Iran’s missile attacks is that they seem to be prioritizing intelligence sites even more than strict military ones. They know their weakness and are working on it.

Iran has mainly been going after Israeli intelligence in the last couple of days: Mossad and 8200 bases throughout the country, from north through center to south. This seems to be their main focus now. I have no way to assess hits and damages, but these are large, extremely expensive, highly prized targets. They know where everything is – and if you remember the Hezbollah drone videos from a year ago, you can guess how accurate their information is.

Iran also has high-resolution satellites in space – this is Israel’s first war against an enemy with such capabilities. Israel has not reported a single IDF casualty since this war began, but tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians work in those places and in the other big bases that have been attacked.

Meanwhile, estimates are that Israel has less than two weeks left of interceptor missiles. If the US sends everything it can spare, well, that’s maybe two more weeks.

As I said previously:

This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority-targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.

And Iran has only begun to use its better missiles.

I don’t know how the math is working. Israel is sending its cops after Israelis posting video or pictures of attacks. Iran has shut down most outgoing internet. This makes sense for both sides, no reason to let enemies know how successful their attacks are.

Iran has also told its citizens to get rid of WhatsApp and Instagram, as both are easily hacked. Going forward, I’d suggest that all countries need their own OS and their own social networks, hosted in their own countries, at a minimum. China has this. Android and IOS are extremely vulnerable, no matter what apps you’re using. As I’ve been writing for years, carrying a cell phone is carrying a bug, tracking device, and surveillance camera with you at all times. (The best OS for privacy right now appears to be Graphene, which only runs on the most recent Google Pixel phones, I believe.)

As you’ve probably heard, the US is moving three aircraft carrier groups to the Middle East. It’s not clear if the US will join the war. In fact I doubt anyone knows if it will. Even Trump couldn’t tell you, because he changes his mind so often.

Absent the US getting involved, I put the odds in Iran’s favor, but it’s not a strong bet. It’s simply too hard to tell the actual situation. Some claim Israel has complete air dominance over Iran, others say that’s not true, and I don’t know. Likewise, lots of claims are made about how many launchers have been destroyed, but there’s no reason to believe either side on this. Attack volumes from Iran are way down, but is that because of strategy or capability? If it’s capability, they’re sunk. If its strategy, maybe not. It’s quite conceivable they’re holding back a lot as they degrade AD and force the Israelis to run through their AD missiles.

Do bear in mind that Iran has the simplest advantage: It’s much larger than Israel, has a much larger population, and it is an industrial state which has the ability to build its own weapons. China is not going to intervene militarily, but I’m sure they’ll sell Iran as much cheap materials it needs to build more missiles and drones. China has the cheapest and most extensive supply network for both.

The elephant in the room, of course, is that if Israel decides it is losing, it does have nukes, and if any country in the world other than US is psychotic enough to use nuclear weapons, it’s Israel.

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of my articles, you might wish to donate or subscribe. I’ve written over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

The Real Reason for French Collapse at the Outset Of WWII

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On June 18, 2025

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I doubt one in ten of you know the importance of the Battle of the Marne? Quite simply, had the French, plus a smallish-medium but crucial contigent of soldiers from the UK, not halted the invading Germans at the Marne, the 20th century would have looked very different. Sure, von Moltke the Younger lost his nerve and pulled two corps from his right flank, and shipped them East to help fend off the Russian hordes. But, the French were glorious at the Marne, and each and every one of us owe a debt a gratitude to France for the elan and courage.

As Holger Herwig writes in The Marne, 1914, “At dawn on 6 September, 980,000 French and 100,000 British soldiers with 3,000 guns assaulted the German line of 750,000 men and 3,300 guns [across a front stretching from] Verdun and Paris.” The Miracle of the Marne had begun. By the 9th of September the Germans were in full retreat. For the next three days they were battered by and bloodied by the French and English. Most historians of World War One agree that the Miracle on the Marne was the most important battle the 20th century.

What followed were two giant armies trying to outflank each other in a race to the sea. Then, they settled down into four years of siege warfare. Now, all the European observers who came to watch our Civil War — von Molke the Elder was one of them — all took away the wrong lesson. They were more interested in the use of railroads for logistics — not unimportant. But, had they really paid attention to just how much proto-siege warfare was conducted during our Civil War, they might have anticipated trench warfare and its horrific casualties. Fredericksburg anyone?

So, we got four years of muck. And for France, in that four years, the flower of her youth perished. Cheese-eating surrender monkeys is the most common and ugly perjorative for them that I can think of at present. It refers to the French collapse in six weeks and one day in the face of the German Invasion. But no one asks the question why? There is a one word answer: Demographics.

One of every six young men in France’s Lost Generation died. Not wounded, or maimed. Dead. Add in the cost of the maimed and disfigured, the skewed ration between men and women? Twenty years later when their children had to serve the nation, they were simply unwilling to endure the sacrifices of the previous war. Not in the face of all the odious crimes of the Nazis.

So, any time I hear about cheese eating surrender monkeys, someone gets an unsolicited history lesson.

The US Continues to Accelerate Its Decline (+Iran)

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On June 18, 2025

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I wavered between writing another Iran war update and this article, so I’ll say a few things about the Iranian war. There’s evidence that Israeli intelligence networks in Iran and elsewhere are being compromised fast. It appears that:

 

That India, a Hindu/Brahmin supremacist state which is increasingly treating its minorities the way Israel used to treat Palestinians before it went full genocidal, is allied this deeply with Israel is not a surprise. That they were willing to flush their intelligence network down the drain for Israel shows that they’re as stupid as the US.

This will, of course, lead to Indian tech and guest workers being unwelcome, and a massive crash in foreign earnings sent back to India.

Meanwhile, the US is sending vast numbers of planes and supplies to the Middle East. Only B-2 bombers can deliver munitions powerful enough to actually crack Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment. Trump is screaming “unconditional surrender,” the propaganda operation is in full echo of the Iraq war, and it certainly looks like the US is going to enter the war, though Trump is so fickle that nothing is certain until it happens.

Still, my guess is that TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) rankles with Trump, and since he’s too gutless to stand firm on tariffs, he’ll start a war.

Likewise, as Bush Jr. understood, war-time Presidents are popular. Trump’s polls are atrocious, and he will expect a rally around effect from being a war President to repair them and save him in the mid-terms.

Now, to the larger picture. A US war against Iran, combined with Ukraine and all the munitions sent to Israel, means that the US will not be able to directly fight China or Russia for years.

The non-secret weakness of the US military is how little munitions they are able to produce, a weakness which extends throughout NATO. Western militaries are expeditionary forces, even the American one, intended for fighting non-peer adversaries who are expected to collapse quickly. This means that production of war materials is low.

For example, the US produces the following quantities of air defense missiles every year:

  • Patriot: 500-550, expected to go up to 650 by 2027 (the rate of increase is itself pathetic.)
  • SM-6 (Aegis naval AD): 125-150 a year
  • SM-3 (Aegis again): 20-50  a year
  • Stinger (man-pad AD, important in Ukraine): 600-700 a year.
  • AIM-120 AMRAAM (middle-range A-A): 800-1,000
  • Sidewinder (short-range A-A): 1600-1800 a year
  • THAAD (Air ground for intercepting short- to medium-range ballistic systems; Israel uses these, Ukraine doesn’t): 50-100/year

Numbers for offensive missiles are similar:

  • Tomahawk missiles (sea-launched vs. ground targets): 68-100/year
  • JASSM missiles (long-range precision cruise missile): 200-300/year
  • Javelin anti-tank (man-portable): 1,200-1,500/year
  • MGM-400 ATACMS (ground-to-ground, launched from HIMARS and MLRS launchers): 50-100/year
  • Hellfire (short-range air-to-ground, laser-guided, launched from helicopters): 500-1000/year

Exact numbers are hard to determine for obvious reasons. Stockpiles of most of these missiles (but not all) have been drawn down vastly throughout the Ukraine and Israeli-everyone wars. If Iran is attacked, multiple years’ worth of production will be used up.

This means that China will have complete dominance in the their part of the Pacific, definitely around Taiwan and the first island chain, for years. Indeed, by the time the US re-stockpiles, China will be so far ahead in numbers of missiles that it will be hopeless, and that’s before we get to the fact that China can replenish stocks much faster than the US.

All of this goes without even discussing drones, where China’s lead is astronomical.

Empires do not go gentle into that good night. What the US is doing and enabling is monstrous.

But it is also accelerating American decline.

That is in foreign affairs. Domestically, Trump is systematically destroying the basis of American advancement in tech and science. The idea that private enterprise, which does not do basic research, can make up the difference is ludicrous to anyone who knows how science and tech works. Indeed, the current AI boom is based on university research from the 80s (Granted, it’s from research in Canada (!), a country the US has decided to turn from an ally into an opponent.)

Trump is also dismantling the social welfare system, turning the US into a police state (and not the sort-of-good kind, yes, they exist, China is one of them), massively increasing inequality and basically destroying any remaining social solidarity between Americans.

I can’t think of a more destructive US President except maybe Reagan (but that was long term). Even Herbert Hoover looks good. (He didn’t cause the stock market crash, he just responded badly.) Trump is just so actively malign. He’s not a Russian agent, but the cold war KGB couldn’t have put someone in place who was more damaging, even in their wildest dreams.

So, all of this is awful. But the US’s days are numbered, truly. Unless you are very old, or die an early death, you will see the end of the American Empire and even of American hegemony over the Americas.

***

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Iran-Israeli War Update

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On June 16, 2025

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Let’s take this in steps.

Air Defense Iranian air defense was not active for the first attack wave. They were online for the second one, about six hours later. It’s unclear why. I have heard two credible claims. The first is that they were hit by a cyber-attack, but came online faster than the Israelis expected.

The second is that the Iranians deliberately played rope-a-dope. The first attack was largely a matter of stand-off munitions, which the Israelis have (had) very limited supplies of. The Iranians tanked that hit, counting on the fact that most military targets were underground and hardened. Then when the second attack happened, which required close in attack, the air defenses were turned on. Because they had not been compromised in the first attack (air defense use makes air defense visible) they were much more effective.

Intelligence Penetration of Iran This was obviously severe, given the number of senior personnel killed during the initial attacks, and given how much of the initial attacks were carried out by drones and automated anti-air defense inside Iran. But what needs to be understood is that Mossad’s networks are being severely degraded. Intelligence networks which are passive, which don’t do anything very active, can exist for years or even decades, but when they go live and are actually used for attacks assets are exposed. Reports are pouring out of Iran of raids on Israeli intelligence agents and collaborators, and while they may be overstated, I find them credible, because it’s how such things work. Israel has gone big, and they are burning assets.

Iranian Counter-Attack This was strong, but not as strong as it could have been. While there’s reason to believe that a lot of the missile launchers hit were dummies, the Iranians should have been able to launch about a thousand missiles in a salvo, and they didn’t. Air defense systems are very subject to be being overwhelmed by numbers. Now it’s possible that they didn’t because they wanted the data from initial strikes to pinpoint air defense, and that each wave was designed to “clear a path”, the first strike, even, hit hard: taking out a lot of military assets and state capacity.

It should also be noted that Iran has not used its most advanced missiles yet. The stuff being sent is mostly old crap that would have been decommissioned in a few years anyway, interspersed with some better missiles, but not the most recent varieties. Iran still has a lot held for future attacks.

If you need a little cheering up, this video compilation of hits on Tel Aviv (obviously partial), may help.

Here is some footage of destruction:

Some footage of destruction in Tel Aviv itself.

All of this is much worse than the previous Iranian attacks. Real destruction. I will point out that if Iran had done this after the embassy assassinations they might have restored deterrence and not suffered this particular attack. Cowardice has its price, and it is often greater than that of bravery.

Finally, from the IDF itself:

Israel does not have enough interceptors and air defense to stop the Iranians from completely devastating their country, which is why they are begging everyone to help them. Iran is already beginning to target Israeli Air Defense. US naval assets can only help so much, as they carry limited supplies and the US itself produces very few air defense missiles every year. Using them all up in Israel will make America completely defenseless in any other war (and Zelensky is already squealing.)

This is entirely a race between Israel’s ability to destroy missile launchers with its aircraft, and Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles. The math is that simple. As an aside, Iran should be priority targeting Israeli air fields alongside air defense.

And What About Nukes? Well, I find this interesting. Directly contradicting Khameini in public is important.

Iranian Major General Mohsen Rezaei on Iranian Radio and Television:

We are still exercising restraint and have not deployed all our capabilities to avoid global chaos.

However, we may reach a point where we use new weapons.

We are seeking to form an Islamic army with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and several other countries.

We should move towards the atomic bomb, but according to the Supreme Leader’s fatwa, we do not currently intend to build nuclear weapons.

Iraq should know, it is their turn after us. Iran may be forced to take actions that could destabilize the entire region.

It is, of course, obvious that if Iran had nukes, much or most of this would never have happened. North Korean leaders do not worry about being murdered in their sleep by foreign missiles, drones and bombs.

The China Syndrome. All of the materials required to build drones and ballistic missiles are available, cheap, from China. China gets a lot of oil from Iran, uses Iran for transhipment, and is in general a major ally of Iran. It is also aware that taking out Iran is one of the steps before war with it. Just as I said that China would not allow Russia to be taken out by sanctions (and was right), I expect China in the case of any sort of duration of this war, and, indeed, after it, to supply Iran with everything it needs to ramp up production of missiles and drones. Since China’s production abilities exceed those of the West when it comes to these requirements, this is not a small thing.

No Army Means No Fall. Iran cannot be defeated by airpower alone unless there is a significant uprising in the country which the army is unable or unwilling to stop. One should never underestimate the CIA’s regime change abilities, of course, but if they don’t pull it off then this war is about reducing Iran’s power projection ability: doing enough damage that they surrender in spirit if not in fact.

The Khameini Problem. Nations rot from the top, and this is clearly the fundamental problem in Iran. Khameini is cautious, even timid. He has underplayed his hand every single time during this crisis, most importantly when not sending ground troops to stop the fall of Assad. This caused great problems with the younger members of the Revolutionary Guard, who are hardliners almost to a man. The elimination of senior members of defense and government is not strengthening moderates, it is strengthening hardliners.

Israel has said that Khameini is not off-limits for murder. If they do so, it will be a huge mistake. It will end the non-nuclear fatwa (though the Iraniams will lie about that) and put hardliners in charge. Ironically, the best thing Khameini could do for Iran right now is be Martyred. If Allah Wills It, let it be so. I don’t want to get too down on him, in many ways he’s run Iran very well, but he is a victim of Machiavelli’s dictum that when times change most leaders can’t change with the times and the virtues that made them good leaders in the past make them terrible leaders in the present.

The Russia/China Issue. Iran could have had a full military alliance with Russia. If they did, they’d be in a lot stronger position. Iran really wants to be an independent major regional power. The other option is to be the junior partner in a tripartate bloc with China and Russia. I understand why they want to avoid that, but being in the world’s strongest alliance (and yes, that’s what it would be) comes with an absolute ton of benefits. They need to reconsider this issue. They will get some support from Russia and China, indeed, a lot of support, but neither country is going to go all out for them. If either would, Iran would be in a lot less danger.

Final Ironic Cowardly Nazi Note. 

Most of Iran’s air and missile command was killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Hezbollah’s senior leaders were killed in an underground bunker during a meeting. Israel knows Iran has missiles capable of doing the same thing to them, but they know that Iran won’t strike a hospital to kill them. They of course have destroyed many hospitals, in one were the high command of their enemies hiding.

May God grant the side of good, whichever side that is, victory in this conflict and bring an end to genocide.

***

If you’ve read this far, and you read a lot of my articles, you might wish to donate or subscribe. I’ve written over 3,500 posts, and the site, and Ian, take money to run.

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