The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: January 2016 Page 2 of 3

I Will Take Your Squealing over Litvinenko’s Assassination Seriously if You Have Criticized Obama’s Drone Assassinations

So, a retired British judge came out with a report saying Putin probably approved the death by radioactive tea of ex-Russian spy Litvinenko. Which means “almost certainly.”

And there is much brouhah.

And I yawn.

Because the difference between killing Litvinenko and the American drone assassination program under Bush and Obama, is that Bush, and especially Obama, have assassinated a LOT more people than Putin has.

No one with sense can take these arguments seriously any more. You cannot claim anything but tribal identity politics when your argument is, “Don’t do what we do.”

Hypocrisy doesn’t even cover it.

A good world requires that we don’t do things that are wrong, even if we think there is some short term advantage to it.  Certainly Putin was wrong, but “killing less people is better than killing more.”

Okay?


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Oligarchs & Criminals: Reward and Punishment After the Unmoved Mover

Our conception of human nature rules most of our social decisions, including those centered around economics and justice.

One of the primary concerns of Theology and Metaphysics was to find an “unmoved mover,” or, a “first cause.”

Our ancestors were not stupid. They noticed that effects seemed to have causes. Even when the cause was not evident, they assumed there was a cause because of how the rest of the universe worked.

In one sense, this is a search for “the creator,” or “the first,” or “God” (though it need not be God in any monotheistic sense).  What created the universe runs very quickly into infinite regress. If X created the universe, what created X?

You needed, then, to find a cause which itself had no cause. You needed to find an unmoved mover: Something that could move other things, but was not itself caused by anything.

To many moderns, this seems like a pointless pursuit, but the most brilliant people in many cultures pursued it for thousands of years, precisely because the oddest thing about existence isn’t any one part of existence, it is that there exists existence at all.

Why should there be anything?

What does this have to do with morality, ethics, reward, and punishment?

If everything has a cause, then how can anyone be morally culpable for their thoughts or actions?

This is not an inconsequential thought, it is at the heart of the prison and justice reform movements of the late 19th century, and the heart of secular efforts to help the unfortunate.

Fault requires agency. If everything you do has a cause, then how can you be blamed for anything. (Indeed, what are you? Just a collection of causes and effects, which is what some Buddhists mean when they say there is no self.)

In a pure cause and effect universe, there is no choice. Any appearance of choice is an illusion. It does not exist. Intellectually, this reached its highest point with Skinner’s Beyond Freedom and Dignity, which attempted to show how conditioning created behaviour and which was (unfairly, in my opinion) demolished by Noam Chomsky (whose work in other areas I admire).

Choice. Agency. These things require an unmoved mover. They do not require God, but they require something to happen which does not have cause.

A soul, perhaps. But if you don’t believe in such “nonsense,” then where is the choice? Absent the choice, where is the blame? Clarence Darrow, the famous jurist from the Scopes Monkey Trial, argued this in his book Crime: Its Cause and Treatment. He also wrote a book called The Myth of the Soul.

No soul. No unmoved mover. No culpability, no blame.

If people aren’t to blame for their behaviour, punishment makes no sense. You’re going to hurt someone because he hurt someone else? He didn’t have a choice.

There are no choices.

This is why prison departments are often called Corrections departments.

The criminals’ behaviour is harmful to society (well, in theory). That’s not their fault, but it does need to be corrected. Since behaviour has causes, changing the environment (which determines the causes of behaviour) can change the behavior.

Those who sneer at this should note that Nordic prisons, which concentrate on rehabilitation and avoid violence and punishment, have recidivism rates about half that of American prisons.

Most violent crimes, and especially sex crimes, are committed by people who were themselves abused. Abusing them more does not fix them. And for those criminals who were not abused, putting them into a system which will virtually ensure their abuse makes them worse when they get out, as a rule.

Once they get out, if they can only associate with the underclass and criminal class, if there are no opportunities for them because no one will hire an ex-con, well, that will cause more crime.

But this article isn’t just about criminals, it is about all of us.

Much social policy in the 20th century came out of the insight that all effects have causes combined with statistics: “Oh, people who are born poor have worse outcomes.”

That is either due to environment, or it is due to genetics.

There is NOTHING else in a pure materialistic view.

Thus, in addition to the reformers, you had the eugenics crowd, because it was either environment or it was genetics.

Eugenics basically says “this is inferior stock.” It should not be allowed to breed, because inferior stock leads to worse outcomes: more crime, more poverty, etc, etc.

Environment says that while there may be some genetic issues, most of the causes are social. What are your parents’ social position, who are you peers, what opportunities do you have?

If we want better outcomes, we have to improve the environment for people who tend to have bad outcomes.  Therefore we provide free healthcare, free education, improve their housing, put libraries into their neighbourhoods, and so on.

So much for the consequences on action. Consider the ethical consequences.

If you are not responsible for your crimes, or your position in life (it all comes down to a birth lottery and no choice you ever made…because you have no choices), then neither are you responsible for whatever wealth or success you have accrued in any ethical fashion. You never made a choice that lead to whatever you had.

Thus the statement: “I made the money, I deserve” is nearly nonsense in this paradigm.  The only utilitarian case which can be made for it is: “I will spend it in better ways than the government/poor/middle class will.” There is no deserve.

We thus have a large project through the 20th century to say that rich people WILL use their money better than government would, or than poor or middle class people would if they had it.

“Rich people create jobs.” “Rich people make superior investment decisions and those investment decisions improve the world.”

You get the idea.

Everyone wants to think they deserve what they have. It gratifies the ego, and it assures one that one will continue to be prosperous, powerful, or healthy.

The “continue to be” is important, because fitness is relative.

You can certainly make a case that the winners of any society are more “fit.”

But that fitness is for that society. Change the society, and those who are fit change. What is rewarded in Medieval Europe is not what is rewarded today in America, is not what was rewarded in Mandarinate China, is not even what is rewarded today in Japan, and various other societies.

As societies change, through changes in ideology, social facts, technology, and material base, what is “fit” changes. The genetic endowment and circumstances which guaranteed success become less and less relevant over time.

Fitness is thus not exactly arbitrary, but it is relative, and to a remarkable degree it is socially chosen. The Age of Faith rewarded monastics and hermits with great prestige, for example. Heck, it rewarded monastics with great wealth. We do no such thing; in this age, we do not value contemplatives.

In Japan, the ability to fit in and get along is far more valuable than it is in America. Mavericks are hardly tolerated. What will get you ahead in a police state like Egypt is different from what works in Europe and so on.

There is no end of history (unless we wipe ourselves out). What cultures and societies reward will always change. It has changed in my lifetime in the West: The rewards for skills in finance and technology were not nearly as large in my youth, manual labor was worth much more, and so on.

So: No unmoved mover, no free will, and you are thrown back on purely utilitarian arguments for what people “deserve” because there is no choice. What you do to people who aren’t “fit” in your society changes as well. They aren’t making bad choices, because they don’t make choices and neither do you. They are simply responding to biology and environment, and you’d act the same way if you had been born with their biology, to their parents, at the same time.

You want better outcomes? Change the biology or the environment. Everything else is a waste of time, and moral exhortations to do better are only useful if they change behaviour, but are bullshit in explanatory terms.

This is a cold universe. It contradicts our everyday feeling that we do make choices. But it is hard to argue against it.

The notable materialist attempt has been to find choice and consciousness in quantum effects. Roger Penrose, who worked often with Stephen Hawking, wrote a very dense book on this. It’s true that cause and effect don’t work in quantum mechanics the way they do in Newtonian and Einsteinian physics. The Quantum God is not a watchmaker’s God.

Consciousness, or observation, seems to effect quantum outcomes. This is spooky to us. Perhaps here we will find some room for choice, for free will.

But I do not know that it has been shown yet, and I’m not sure what Quantum free will would mean in practice.

For now, if you do not believe in an unmoved mover, there is little to no room for free will, for actual choice. And if that is true, it is also true that there is no room for blame–or congratulations–for individual outcomes beyond, “Congratulations on your fitness, which you made not one choice to create!” or, “Gee, it’s too bad you aren’t fit for this society, have defective genes, or experience!”

Look on this argument and understand what it means. Look on it and understand what it means for our social policies.

Even if you think there is an unmoved mover, this view should be of interest to you, not just because it has been influential but because statistics supports that most people perform just about how you’d expect they’d perform, given their physical endowment and their environment. Individual variation exists, and you can use free will to explain some of it, while noting that if free will exists, most people don’t seem to use it very much.

Social change comes from changing the environment people are in. It comes from very little else.


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As Bitcoin Falls Apart

It seems Bitcoin is skirting disaster. They need to increase the amount of memory allocated per block, but have refused to do so. The result is that transactions can take hours to occur. To manage this, fees for bitcoin usage are increasing, to the point where it costs more than a credit card. (Accepted by a lot less people, and costs more. The upside is…?)

One proposed solution is to, oh, increase the memory, but doing so is opposed by three of the five members of the people with access to the code base, and by the Chinese miners who control most of the “mining” which creates Bitcoins. (You can read about the adolescent infighting details here).

Now remember, Bitcoin was a Libertarian experiment in money. You have to “mine” it using computers which do nothing worthwhile except mine it. There is a built-in limit to the number of bitcoins which can ever be created, to  ensure that, in the long run, Bitcoins will be deflationary. All in all, it’s structure was designed to create huge, first-mover advantages and no governance worth speaking of (because that will all just “sort itself out”).

Or, as Daniel put it:

Yeah.

Now, Bitcoin was about the worst way possible to do something which REALLY needed to be done, which is to create a peer-to-peer payment system which cuts out the middleman. You do this so that banks/credit card companies can’t get what amounts to unearned money (the amounts of which are far more than the cost of the service provided), and also so that companies and governments can’t shut down the ability of people they don’t like to send and receive money, a power which has been terribly abused–especially by the US Treasury Department.

Bitcoin, minus Libertarian assumptions, with a bit of decent governance, could have really changed the world in a good way.

It didn’t, though the underlying technology of blockchains may yet. We’ll see about that, because what I’m hearing from the blockchain world is that banks are investing in it highly because they think it may help them with “know your customer,” “anti-money laundering,” and reduce transaction costs (for them, obviously, not necessarily the clients).

A “revolutionary” technology, thus, is likely to wind up reinforcing the status quo, though we’ll see.

Another contributing factor in all this is that, in addition to Bitcoin being a way for early movers to get rich (and for speculation), it’s real use has been primarily moving money in and out of countries.

It is important in China and tolerated, not just because the miners cluster there, but because the Chinese (including many of their officials) want an unofficial way to get money out of the country. Everyone has known China was going to run off the Mercantalist cliff, and people have wanted to get money out of there (the US dollar spiking like it is almost always a sign of flight to safety and presages a global recession).

Bitcoin got its first spike of fame outside tech circles by helping people get their money out of Cyprus when their banking sector had its collapse.

Political theory, which includes economic theory as a subset, matters. Bitcoin was based on libertarian theories which do not and cannot work in the real world. That is why it has not and will not live up to the utopian dreams of its early political backers.

We will see how the Blockchain is used by other cryptocurrencies, and whether any of them manage to create a functional peer-to-peer payments system.

I hope they do.

The failure of the Bitcoin dream (as opposed to the actual creation) doesn’t make me happy. We can use it as a lesson, the first of which is: “get your motives straight,” and the second of which is “Have a workable political and economic ideology.”


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What Chinese Market Turmoil Tells Us About 2016

Since the last financial crisis, I have repeatedly said that the most important economy in the world was now China. China is the world’s largest manufacturing nation. It is probably the world’s largest economy. It is the largest market for commodities, which many of the world’s nations rely on as their primary exports. Because we have gone to a world system which encourages manufacturing overseas for First World nations, this is unsurprising.

China has been creating, publicly and privately, more money than the US, Japan, and Europe combined. Multitudes of it.

Even when it hasn’t been the strongest growing economy, it has driven the growth of many other nations; direct trade with China might not dominate trade for some nations (for example, Brazil), but China determines the price of key commodities which many nations sell.

Some economists will argue that because trade is a small percentage of a particular country’s economy, it does not matter. This is like saying that since the food I eat is a small percentage of my body weight, eating less and worse food doesn’t matter.

Activities at the margins determine prices, economic growth, and employment/unemployment. China is the lynchpin economy which determines these things for much of the world.

So, we’ve had an ongoing commodities price crash, ongoing for some time, with most of the attention on the price of oil (now down to 2003, Pre-Iraq war prices). But commodities overall have crashed, and even countries which have maintained GDP growth (like Australia) have taken huge hits in their labor markets.

With prices down, growth stagnant or down, there is simply much less demand. This is your standard vicious cycle: The Chinese can sell less manufactured goods to the rest of the world, therefore need less commodities, etc.

The Yuan is becoming a reserve currency, and that means it is being unpegged from the dollar, regardless of whether most people can admit this or not. So the decreased exports are putting pressure on the Yuan, everyone’s money is running to the currency of last resort (the US dollar), and people are trying to get out of volatile Yuan denominated assets.

All of that is a long way of saying: This is the year the shit hits the fan.

We never left the depression after the financial crisis. We did, however, still have a business cycle. There was a recovery, expansion, and so on. Now we’re (and by “we,” I mean the entire world, with some exceptions) heading into recession.

That’s a recession within a depression, wherein many First World nations’ median income actually fell, and where employment in core nations never recovered in terms of population percentage.

This is going to hurt.

This is going to really, really hurt.

I’ll discuss specific consequences later, and what you can do. Do not assume this won’t come home to the US. A lot of the pain is being concealed in the US by the flight to the dollar and the oil price collapse, but it’s still going to hit and the pain is still going to hurt.


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The End of the Euro and the Tragedy of the Transnational Dream

For the first time Gallup finds a statistical tie for leaving the Euro in both Greece and Italy.

This has been a long time coming, and a great deal of suffering has happened because people are so slow to adjust to reality. The Euro was never a good idea for either Greece or Italy, and staying in it has cost them a great number of lives, ruined lives, and unhappiness.

It is unclear to me that the Euro is a good idea for any nation in Europe except the Germans. It is too tedious to go into the details; if you’ve been paying attention at all, you know that nations need the ability to use their currency to devalue, and that the Euro is lower than the German Mark would be, giving Germany a large export advantage.

The Euro would only make sense if Europe were going to genuinely amalgamate. If Paris, and Berlin, and so on were reduced to the status of American states.

Meanwhile we are watching the end of the Schengen system. White women have been raped in Germany, and that’s going to be the end of Merkel’s strong support for letting refugees in. Internal borders have been going up all over Europe, and that’s going to continue. This, one notes, fucks the southern European nations of, oh, Greece and Italy.  When the borders are closed they’re going to be stuck with almost all the refugees without the capacity to deal with them.

Why are they still in the Euro? Why are they still in the EU?

Polls still show very strong support for staying in the EU, but I wonder if the benefits still outweigh the advantages. If Europe can’t even fairly divide up refugees according to each member’s ability to handle them, what serious crisis could Europe handle? And remember, the refugee crisis in Europe is nothing compared to what Lebanon or Turkey have had to handle.

The EU was created so there wouldn’t be another general European war. Maybe it should have stuck to that mandate rather than charging ahead with a level of integration it could not support, with a design that ensured that most countries could not hold referendums if support existed.

The EU did a great deal of good, I won’t deny it. It is understandable that it still has a high level of support in certain nations (like Poland). But it has become an anti-democratic stronghold whose policies are clearly damaging the economies of many of its members. I’m not even sure one can make the case that France wouldn’t be better off out of the Euro.

A world of little states is problematic. So many of our problems can only be solved trans-nationally. But the trans-national bodies we have created have been disasters. The WTO, the World Bank, and the IMF have all done more harm than good–in essence because they were designed to maintain the post-WWII status quo (over Keynes objections, I might add).

Until we understand what should be done locally, and what should be done internationally, and until we decide upon the source of our ultimate legitimacy (the EU, IMF, WTO, and World Bank all do not agree it is the “people”), then we are going to continue to have these problems.

That would be fine if we weren’t currently engaged in activities which are likely to see one or two billion  people die, and which, on the outside, risk wiping out the human race.

We need to make internationalism work. The first step towards that would be understanding that internationalism must be designed  to work for everyone, and that there is infrastructure is in place to genuinely care for those who lose out (there are always some).

Until then, joining projects like the WTO or Euro remains political malfeasance.


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Japanification Revisited

The thesis Stirling and I were running from the early 2000’s was that the plan under which America’s elites were operating was Japanification. Run a bubble, and when it bursts refuse to take losses and go into stagnation.

This thesis has proved out repeatedly.

Let’s shine a light on the past. The oldest articles are in the wilds of dead blogs, but there are a few still available.

August 6, 2008:

In Japan, they call it the Bright Depression. Ever since the 1980s bubble burst, the Japanese economy has never been able to rev up its engines and roar again. Slow growth or small contractions have been the rule. It hasn’t been awful. It hasn’t actually been a classic depression. But, somehow, the good times have never come back. Unemployment, never previously a problem, just won’t go away.

….

There is going to be a recovery, it has already started in Asia. Job numbers should start turning around in the spring in the US, though the number of people employed as a percentage of the population will not recover this economic cycle, and probably not for a generation.

However, Japanification doesn’t mean you don’t get some recoveries. You do, then they sputter out. Employment never really recovers, wages stagnate, and things are just generally lousy without plunging the country into an all out depression. So, yes, in that sense the country was “saved’ from a Great Depression, but choosing the worst alternative.

….

The end result of Japanifying, regressive taxation (whether direct or indirect) and  attempting to restart the financial casino will not be pretty. There will not necessarily be any immediate disaster, and some numbers will look good. But the fundamental problems of the economy under Bush have not only not been fixed, they have been made worse and the evidence is being systematically buried. There won’t be another financial crisis immediately, but another one has been made inevitable.

This has all borne out.

June 6th, 2009:

 The strategy is simple enough.

1) Give the banks money.

2) Let them avoid acknowledging as much of their losses as long as possible.

3) Allow them to gouge taxpayers for as much as possible, to dig themselves out of their own hole over a number of years.

The end result of this is going to be Japanification–at best. Not a “lost decade,” as many folks have said, but a semi-permanent wavering between slight job gains and job losses, where a good economy never, ever, comes back. And because the US, unlike Japan, is not a net exporter, it’s questionable how long Japanification can work in the US, in any case.

Fun stuff.

November 12, 2009:

There is going to be a recovery, it has already started in Asia. Job numbers should start turning around in the spring in the US, though the number of people employed as a percentage of the population will not recover this economic cycle, and probably not for a generation.

However, Japanification doesn’t mean you don’t get some recoveries. You do, then they sputter out. Employment never really recovers, wages stagnate, and things are just generally lousy without plunging the country into an all-out depression. So, yes, in that sense, the country was “saved’ from a Great Depression, but by choosing the worst possible alternative.

Called shot. Accurate.

February 20, 2010:

Once more, the percentage of Americans employed will not recover to pre-Great Recession levels for at least a generation, probably longer. This is a deliberate policy choice and everything Obama and Bernanke has done—from refusing to take over banks, to refusing to force lending at reasonable rates, to engaging in an inadequate stimulus, to refusing to make banks recognize their losses, to doing everything they can to encourage slashing Social Security and Medicare, has had the effect of making Japanification more and more likely.

This is just a small selection of posts. I may go through the called shot posts at the time of the stimulus, TARP, and so on, but heck, they just say the same thing.

By papering over the problem, by “extending and pretending,” Bernanke, Geithner, Congress, and Obama (Bush gets a nod, but TARP would not have passed without Obama, it is his child) ensured a generation’s worth of shitty economy for most people.

Yes, if we had chosen not to “extend and pretend,” the hit in 2009 and 2010 would have been worse, BUT the economy today would be far far better. In choosing the method we chose to do the bailouts, we also made the choice to have a shitty economy.  Employment has never recovered, in terms of the percentage of the population, and will not (we’re about to hit a recession), wages are down for much of the population, and all the gains of the last economic cycle have gone to the top three to five percent.

Mind you, there was an historic stock bubble. The rich are even richer than they were in 2007. Obama and Bernanke’s policy has done what it was intended to: It has preserved, and then increased, the wealth of the rich.


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The Best Paid People in Our Societies Are the Worst People

In our society, who earns the most?

Basically people in the financial industry. Bankers, for shorthand.

Why? Because they can print money. In fact, they print almost all the money in society.

There is an argument that inequality exists because some people are just so much more productive than others.

This argument is a fantasy. To be sure there are a few “ten times” programmers and inventors who improved society and so on, but, as a group, the people who earn the most money in society are the people who destroy the most value. Bankers, prior to 2008, destroyed more money than they had made for the last decade. This is not in question. They destroyed trillions.

If they had taken their losses, they and almost every rich person in the First World would have been wiped out. Toxic debt was trading at less than ten cents on the dollar before the Fed stepped in and started accepting it as collateral at near par and said that it could be kept on books at “mark to model,” rather than market prices.

The effects of this were real. Real companies went out of business. Real people lost jobs. Real people wound up on the street. Real incomes cratered. Drive around suburban and exurban America. Look at the empty malls. The damage is right there.

Private bankers and financial execs make almost all of the investment decisions in our society. They decide what will be built, what jobs will be created, etc. They are the people who decide if something will happen and they make terrible decisions–even based on their own valuation system.

Based on what society needs, combined with central bankers, they make even worse decisions.

The bull market that started in 1980 and continues today has made a lot of people rich, and built a lot of houses (which were then condemned to keep their prices artificially high).

But there was an opportunity cost.

An opportunity cost is what wasn’t done.

The opportunity cost of the great bull market (that created all the oligarchs) is all the infrastructure work that wasn’t done, and all the avoiding climate change that wasn’t done. Or the fact that NASA was not properly funded, so that we had to wait until now to finally get cheap, reusable rockets.

The cost of this will be the many deaths from climate change, among other things.

That is the cost of bankers salaries, and oligarch’s tax rates, and the great bull market.

These people are not the most productive people in society, they are the most destructive people in society. They make the money they do because they have a positional advantage; they have more power than other people.

Earnings have nothing to do with merit, social usefulness, or productivity. They are a measure only of how much some people were able to grab. In this, they are little different than looting barbarians, replete with the huge death toll, and the raping (all the rapes which occur in the prison-industrial complex), and the pillaging, and so on.

Do not speak of “salary” and “merit” in the same sentence except with scorn. When the CEO doesn’t show up, so what? When the janitor doesn’t show up, though, hey! We find out who really matters.


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On Meditation

I’ve written on meditation a few times. Once more.

First, Vinay Gupta’s guide to meditation. This is a good one, and if you follow it, you will make progress. It is, also, not easy. Pay attention to Gupta’s admonitions on how to make sure you don’t stop because you’ve made it so unpleasant you don’t want to continue.

Second: Watch your mind. See where your attention is. Much meditation is about learning to control that attention, to put it where you want.

Third: If you can truly rest, that is truly put your attention nowhere, you will make progress very very fast. Almost no one can, but this is the royal road. Expect physical symptoms if you manage this. Ignore them.

Fourth: Anything to which you can pay attention is not you. You are the one paying attention.

Fifth: Meditation will bring up garbage. Horrible thoughts, fantasies, fears, etc…  Refer to #4. Don’t identify with any of it. It is not you, just what you are witnessing. No need to feel ashamed, scared, or anything else.

Sixth: Notice it all passes. Everything.

Seventh: Notice how much control you have. Can you tell me what thought you will be thinking in five minutes? Can you actually control your actions?

Eighth: What is always there?

Ninth: Don’t worry. Do what you feel you should, then don’t concern yourself with the results.

Tenth: Take these things as true, on trust and faith, if you can (they will help): There is a self (it’s just almost certainly not what you think it is), you are perfectly fine, and nothing can ever harm that which is truly you.

Finally, there is no need to get “enlightened.”  It does not matter, unless you want it, in which case, go for it.


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