The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

US Covid April 15th Data

Our benefactor writes:

So, a friend of mine forwarded this link to a NY Times reporting tool. If you scroll down, you see the graph below. I was really puzzled by it, because the number of daily deaths is far below what I am getting from Johns Hopkins. The NY Times appears to be collecting their own data in-house and are seriously under-counting. Ironically, at the top of the article they write, “More than 25,000 people with the coronavirus have now died in the United States, according to a New York Times database. Since early April, that death toll has been growing by more than 1,000 each day.” The total count is correct, but the daily rate is totally off. They would never reach that number without a much larger daily rate.
Here is the three-day average from my data, which is taken by state and summed from Johns Hopkins CSSE data. We have not had a single day less than 2,000 cases in the last week. The data are pointing to a worsening of outcomes perhaps due to the increases coming from southern and mid-western states that are not as restrictive about quarantining, combined with expected lags in deaths as compared to new cases.

Note: As a commenter pointed out, the three-day averages for deaths were wrong. They’ve been corrected. My apologies. (Ian)

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The Duty and Responsibility of Left-wing Leaders


US Covid April 16th Data


  1. Shevek

    A rational discussion with Swedish Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

    1. Protect the Elderly and Sick
    2. Self-initiated avoidance vs. contact tracking (not tracing).
    3. Herd-Immunity is not a strategy, it is a status.
    4. Blanket lockdowns are very hard to revoke and back you into a corner.

    He is a scientist, not a political hack.

  2. Stirling S Newberry


    “3. Herd-Immunity is not a strategy, it is a status.”

    Herd immunity is a strategy – a moronic strategy. One which rich people want to protect there lucre. Good link.


    Do not use the NY Times.

  3. Joan

    If avoidance had to be self-initiated, then a lot more European countries would look like Italy right now. Yes, these blanket lockdowns are heavy handed, but it’s standard procedure in Europe to greet someone by getting right in their face and giving them air kisses on each cheek, even people you are meeting for the first time. There is also a view of medical masks that is a bit extreme. You basically are thought to have tuberculosis or something really dangerous if you go out in public with a mask on. Compare this to societies like Japan where having a mask on means you are trying to protect other people from your cold. My point is that there are cultural behaviors that would be wise to change before the next pandemic blows through. I’m not sure it’s possible to make an entire people less touchy-feely, or get them to go from being social to self-initiating avoidance, but a culture like in Taiwan that remembers pandemics is critically missing in the West.

  4. Eric Anderson

    I’d love to see a study looking at the correlation between transmission and natural social distancing standards. Too busy to crunch the numbers given this data set:

  5. Eric Anderson

    Sorry Joan, I meant to mention your comment made me think along these lines. Funny though, compare the difference between Swedes and Norwegians. Anecdotally, I’m of the Swedish Anderson variety. Close talkers will likely find me turning my back on them. Is this what Sweden is banking on to stem transmission?

  6. NR

    Sweden has a population of 10 million and had 170 COVID deaths yesterday. Their cases per million are almost twice that of anywhere else. There approach is not something any country should emulate.

  7. Dave Dell

    All models are just a guess. As good a guess as is possible. Better guesses all the time but still… No one knows with any certainty. 18 months until a vaccine. 21 months before I’d trust a vaccine.

    This is the best explanation I’ve ever seen of the problems health officials face. Would President* Trump be able to read it all let alone understand it? Would Uncle Joe Biden be able to understand it? Echo answers mournfully. Joe might listen to people who do understand the following but the orange one?:

  8. It May Be You

    Odds are it\’s you.

    I\’ve downloaded their dataset from GitHub – it\’s internally consistent and I can replicate their raw numbers with three day rolling averages – starting with 14 April and moving back two cycles: 26,081 – 3 * 1,835 – 3 * 1,924 equals 14,803 — exactly what they posit for total deaths on 8 April.

    With yours I cannot replicate – starting on 15 April and moving back two cycles: 26,006 – 3 * 2,622 – 3 * 2,883 equals 9,488, not 14,774.

  9. Zachary Smith

    Why Is The Battelle N95 Mask Sterilization Contract So Expensive?

    My very first thought about this was that Battelle is being given some extra money so as to do some totally-off-the-record secret projects for Interested Parties. Yes, I’m paranoid, and it could be routine corruption, but that was my first thought.

  10. Zachary Smith

    Sydney — Vigilantes in some Australian outback towns have reportedly slashed tyres of those fleeing coronavirus hotspots in the big cities, according to a government minister who urged calm on Friday.

    The first version of this story was one which emphasized the nasty overreach of Big Government. Imagine hunting down and fining/arresting innocent souls who were out in the woods minding their own business while they were “self-isolating”! The second version, the one I’m linking, tells another side of the story.

    The folks taking to the hills (or the outback) could very well be bringing in the Virus to communities which have so far escaped the worst of it. The “refugees” are ignoring every regulation by doing their bug-out routine, and as such they certainly do count as “scofflaws” who care only about themselves.

    They’re also well-off – people who tootle around in a Motor Home (caravan) tend to be that way, and they can outbid the locals for resources. Or, as they drive from place to place, they can strip-mine the local stores. The far-out places in Australia are already getting only a fraction of their normal supplies for the local stores, and the last thing they need is even more people with deep pockets buying things.


    The link has another feature which set me to thinking – notice that person fitted out with a SCUBA mask. Why couldn’t a version of this be made for Medical Workers who must be constantly near patients who are possibly contagious or already extremely ill? The entire face is protected – including the eyes.

    Imagine a lightweight model with an air hose running to box which includes a replaceable filter and a substantial UV light optimized for the Coronavirus. Both incoming and outgoing air would be treated, and the electricity powering the fan and the UV light would come from either a battery pack or a 110V electrical plug for stationary workers. Court House clerks? Grocery store cashiers? Some factory jobs? Why not?

  11. Tom

    Seeing more success with Zinc Channel Openers and Zinc. And while not FDA approved and considered valid much less acknowledged, we sped up diagnosis of COVID-19 by simply drawing blood and checking for a greenish tint. Those we find with it, are treated as COVID-19 cases and treated with Zinc and Desferal MESYLATE to treat the Iron Poisoning caused by the virus booting FE2 and 3+ into the bloodstream.

    FDA and CDC still remain behind the curb due to wanting peer review studies when we don’t have time for that and have to operate on incomplete information and pure observation. And its killing people.

  12. Ten Bears

    Mike Pence says 24 percent of the counties in the US have no coronavirus cases.

    Which means that three-quarters of US counties do.

    This is not necessarily good news.

  13. Stirling S Newberry

    1. Love it, “Protect the banks!”

    2. Ten Bears – that is just the Republican talking point that says that acres should have votes.

    3. Remember in the deluded version of the world, American Democracy is founded on a detente of money (1) and land (2) have votes, not people.

  14. Aqua Lung

    Mike Pence says 24 percent of the counties in the US have no coronavirus cases.

    With little to no testing, how would he know? American deaths from this NOVEL virus are well over 100,000 now despite the under reporting. The question is, have all the areas that have been infected been infected purposely? New York City, for example. If overcrowding enables the rapid spread of this virus then Africa should be ravaged right now. Lagos, anyone? Considering the overcrowded conditions in Lagos and its lack of an adequate healthcare structure, deaths from this pandemic should be in the hundreds of thousands in that city by now and yet nothing. Zilch. Nada. Gilad Atzmon asserts there needs to be a criminal investigation related to this pandemic. I agree. I firmly believe this is the result of foul play and the perps need to be brought to justice and that justice should be administered with extreme barbaric and brutal prejudice and televised for all the world to see.

  15. KT Chong

    The Los Angeles county now offers free COVID-19 testing and next-day appointment for anyone who shows any symptom and requests it:

  16. Aqua Lung

    As I said before, social distancing schmocial schmistancing. America don’t do dat sh*t. It does the Fandango instead.

    Case in point, my neighbor the Trump-supporting pediatric ER physician. He and his family are not taking this seriously at all. No protective equipment such as mask and gloves when out and about. His college-aged kid just returned from a spring break trip amidst this pandemic. And, get this, his Mexican hairdresser, a woman who apparently cuts the entire family’s hair and has for quite some time because it’s a family affair, made a house call yesterday and styled the good doctor’s hair in the back yard. She was wearing a mask, I’ll give her, and them, that, but still, a medical professional SHOULD KNOW BETTER.

    I say this because my hair is crazy right now.I haven’t had it cut, I would never get my hair styled no matter how much you paid me, since early February and for me, that’s a long time. My hair is extremely thick and course. It takes me ten minutes in the shower just to get it wet enough to accept shampoo. Needless to say, I’m looking like Ted Kaczynski more and more every day sans the Harvard education. Not the good doctor, though. It’s important he get his hair professionally done no matter the cost be that cost in dollars or lives.

    Ain’t that America, home of the free, yeah, no little pink masks and gloves for you & me, ooo, ooo, yeah.

  17. Aqua Lung

    No, Kelly, what’s unforgivable is you and your third husband Joe and your unflagging support for Donald Trump and your third husband’s obscene wealth derived from the decayed lungs of the coal miners he stole from and all the asthma and asthma-related deaths his fortune has caused.

    What would Fidel and Che do with and about Joe & Kelly Craft? What should we do with and about them? Because the time has come. This vermin has no business being a U.N. Ambassador. She is unqualified in every conceivable way. She and her husband are filth. They are vermin. They are scum. And so too are all their friends. You know, the top 20%. The time has come. They belong to the club entitled If We Could Legally Own Slaves We Would.

  18. Aqua Lung

    The pandemic’s effect on climate chaos. The bittersweet result of less particle pollution. Easier breathing in the short-term, but accelerated climate chaos after that respiratory respite.

  19. @Zachary Smith

    “Imagine a lightweight model with an air hose running to box which includes a replaceable filter and a substantial UV light optimized for the Coronavirus. Both incoming and outgoing air would be treated, and the electricity powering the fan and the UV light would come from either a battery pack or a 110V electrical plug for stationary workers. Court House clerks? Grocery store cashiers? Some factory jobs? Why not?”

    This strikes me as a truly excellent idea, subject to the caveat that I don’t know what kind of cleansing efficiency a UV light has. A variation of this idea is to skip the filter, and rely on a mask. Of course, even if it disturbs the seal, somewhat, a scuba mask worn over a surgical mask could only improve things, if a surgical mask was all that was available. (Not sure about the N95, as I think they’re rigid).

    An improvement might be to include a microphone that wirelessly broadcasts to a speaker, as I don’t think others will be able to hear you, without one.

    I’m going to post this idea on a facebook group page. Suggest that others attempt viralizing the idea. Students home from engineering school seem like natural early inventors.

  20. Eric Anderson

    Care to share a source for inquiring minds?
    Wife and I based on anecdotal evidence have gone back to our golden milk before bed regimen for the zinc benefits that for some reason or another we had stopped doing some time ago.

  21. Ten Bears

    That has always been the Republican talking point. They can’t win on merit.

    Can only ‘win’ by cheating. One of America’s great national past-times.

    Not that the Democrat Disaster Capitalists are any better.

  22. Zachary Smith

    I was overdue for one when the local lockdown started, and suddenly nobody was open. After deducing the situation wasn’t going to improve and not being a “long hair” type, I dug out some electric clippers. No family member was willing to tackle the job, so it became a solo endeavour. The clippers had a “burr” attachment, and that’s how I tried to limit the damage.
    1. Set a large piece of cardboard over a bathroom sink.
    2. Try to guide clippers using mirror – failure!
    3. Bend over the cardboard and do the job by “feel”.

    My respect for barbers went up quite a lot, for I ended up covered with hair, but after a quick shower the end result was that I resembled an Army recruit entering basic training. This was a good trade-off, for I was getting really tired of the “shaggy dog” look and feel.

  23. Stirling S Newberry

    States updated past figures, making it somewhat less out of step with the real numbers. Essentially, more old people died in nursing homes.

    Hasn’t hit

  24. Willy

    I’d get a haircut done by somebody wearing a certified mask. Hell, I’ll even wear one too.

  25. Zachary Smith

    Just make sure both of you are wearing surgical masks. If the haircutter has on an N95 with a valve, he or she is well protected, but YOU are not. That’s because of the valve (which makes exhaling much easier) releases the inside air with zero filtration. If the customer has an N95 too, that would make it OK, but the straps would make the haircut impossible. Possibly the customer could bring in a high-quality mask from which the straps have been cut and use one hand to hold it against his face while the barber does his work.

  26. krake


    “The Ballad of Billy and Oscar


    Jim Dickenson

    I sing of the swift and mysterious style

    Of Billy the swift and Oscar the wild,

    Upstarts and outlaws and lords of the night

    With destinys dark as their spirits were light.

    Now Oscar the liar and Billy the thief

    Subscribed to no orthodox code of belief

    But they mastered each moment that passed like the wind

    With the quicksilver motion of pistol or pen.

    ‘Cause when you’re as fresh as a flower

    and quick as a snake….

    And full of the power of the magic you make

    Decisions just flow from you lighter than air

    Crisp and seditious, vicious but fair,

    Singin’ “stand and deliver right down to your boots

    ‘Cause I’m quick on the trigger and I brook no dispute

    And I’ll take what I fancy and burn all the rest

    And leave you like Adam in your innocence dressed.”

    One grew from the seed of the Irish elite

    One sprang like a weed through a crack in the street

    But who’s to say which is more blessed or more cursed

    The worst of the best or the best of the worst?

    Cause in the great homes of Dublin and the Manhatten slum

    In the heart of the child is the man he becomes

    And the great Irish surgeon and the Manhatten whore

    Got a highway to hell and run right by the door

    Young Billy rode west on his dangerous team

    Oscar come dressed like some outrageous queen

    They could both tree a town, take the money and run

    One wagging his pistol, the other his tongue,

    ‘Cause you keep movin’ on and you never look back

    Livin’ out on your own there’s no sides of the track.

    Cause you come and you’re gone with a price on your head

    There are two kinds of outlaws,

    The quick and the dead.

    In the bloom days of Leadville goes the local vignette

    Out lookin’ for love without guilt or regret

    These veteran highwaymen met face to face

    In the halls of a whorehouse for specialized tastes

    And in a candlelit room full of envious eyes,

    They shared them a meal and some excellent lies

    With a black girl in buckskin and a Blackfoot in drag

    For Billy the virgin and Oscar the fag.

    And they dwelt upon matters of language and art

    The relative size of their masculine parts

    And the need to admit what you do in the dark

    When you live by your wits and you shoot from your heart.

    And you squander the treasure and you treasure the blame

    And you take every pleasure to the threshold of pain

    And you measure your freedom by the weight of your chain

    And the terror and the wonder of the ultimate game

    So, wasted on red eye and green appertif

    And in total contempt for the Leadville police

    They strolled down the block smokin’ French cigarettes

    And then purchased an add in the Leadville Gazette.

    An’ it was published on Sunday in a black bordered box

    With headlines, “Attention All Critics and Cops”

    Two desperate outlaws deserving the name

    Seek one honest Christian with a comparable claim

    And will gladly reward any upstanding man

    Who does what he must and not just what he can

    Who don’t need a heaven to live or to die

    Or need to be threatened to reach for the sky

    ‘Cause they’ve come to discover that the wrong and the right

    Define one another like the day and the night

    That there’s none free and equal this side of the grave

    And the good and the evil can be equally brave

    But they waited in vain and gathering dusk

    On the edge of the plain with their hearts filled with dust

    From explaining to friends they knew better than trust

    That the wages of fame was ashes and rust

    That you set all you won against what you lost

    The wonders ya’ done with the lovers it’s cost

    It’s a rising expense on a descending curve

    Towards the ultimate failure of muscle and nerve

    Know there’s more to the journey

    Than the distance traversed

    And the price of the ticket comes out of the purse.

    Still the end when it came seemed too well rehearsed

    Though Oscar fell painfully, Billy fell first

    And there followed this audible sigh of relief

    From the bankers and lawyers and merchants of grief

    Who could now pray on Sunday and prey on the week

    Untroubled by outlaws with a moral critique

    That’s all that remains of the bravest and best

    Of these hell-bent and hardbitten sons of the west

    And it shines undiminished right down to this day

    As pure and unblemished as Dorian Gray.

    But they never were victims of dishonest praise

    Or the innocent symptoms of social malaise

    They just did not believe and they did not belong

    An’ they done evil deeds

    Just because they were wrong.

    Now Billy and Oscar, the wicked and dead,

    Have rented this duplex inside of my head

    And they’re back with a vengence

    And takin’ down names

    With the willing assistance of a fella who claims

    If you think they were heroes then keep this in mind

    ‘Cause they hated your kin and they hated your kind

    And they gave not a thought to the trust they betrayed

    By the turn of a phrase or the thrust of a blade

    Now assholes and bureaucrats, take my advice

    You’d better walk clear and you’d better talk nice

    ‘Cause we’re hot on your trail

    And we’re not on your side

    You’d better forward your mail,

    Shoot your wounded and ride

    ‘Cause when we got all you desk jockeys safe behind bars

    We’ll claim some of the neon, and some of the cars,

    Me and Billy and Oscar and some of the girls and guitars

    Will be down in the gutter lookin’ up at the stars

    Singin’ “Stand and deliver right down to your boots

    ‘Cause I’m quick on the trigger and I brook no disputes

    And I’ll take what I fancy and burn all the rest

    And leave you like Adam in your innocence dressed.”

    Singin’ “Stand and deliver right down to your boots.

    I’m quick on the trigger and I brook no disputes

    And I’ll take what I fancy and burn all the rest

    And leave you like Adam in your innocence dressed.”

  27. Aqua Lung

    I’m sure you would, Willy, I’m sure you would. How come you haven’t already? I’m also sure you’d attend a tractor pull wearing a certified mask, cuz lord knows tractor pulls are essential services.

    Fyi, he wasn’t wearing a mask. Only she was. No doubt his thinking and that of his wife too was make sure the filthy Mexican wears a mask and let’s do it outside so she doesn’t infect the inside of the house.

    Also fyi, it was her husband who painted our house and you were right, the Mexicans did a terrible job in my opinion. I’m a perfectionist so my expectations are high. Others may consider his work satisfactory but satisfactory isn’t good enough. I expect excellence and his work was far from excellent. He cut corners (not on the paint itself thankfully — it was Sherwin Williams Super Paint) and didn’t supervise his crew properly so that when he wasn’t on site, the quality of their work dropped precipitously and he didn’t inspect their work properly. I had to inspect for him. I will never make that mistake again. Next time I’ll choose the white guy who supervises the Mexican crew versus the Mexican guy who supervises the Mexican crew.

  28. Aqua Lung

    If there is a next time and at this rate there may not be one.

    Anyone want to create a betting pool on what date Trump has his next rally? I’ll go first. I say May 8th. Now for the location. I say The Villages in Florida.

  29. Charlie Dozen

    NR –

    “Their cases per million are almost twice that of anywhere else.”

    You’re way off. You either have a bad source or don’t understand numbers. Your 170 deaths figure is also wrong; there is a difference between something happening and that something being reported. (For accurate per-day numbers, see here:

    In spite of the weird hype around Sweden, it hasn’t so far been hit particularly hard.

    Another person in another thread was comparing numbers from different countries, and trying to draw conclusions from just that how well the policies of the different countries were working, and NR appears to be of the same spirit. Well, one simply cannot do that:

    1. the reporting standards for both cases and deaths vary wildly between countries.

    2. countries are at different places in the spread of the virus; in order to compare two countries, one must also know when and how it hit the countries etc.

    3. the different policies should be expected to play out differently over time. Having a higher death rate in the shorter term doesn’t necessarily mean having one in the longer term.

    One can see the futility of the approach by comparing two regions within Sweden. As of today, the count in Stockholm is 334 deaths per million, whereas in Scania it’s 27. That’s an enormous difference. Yet of course, the system and the reporting standards are all the same, and there has only been slight variations in policy. (The difference is mostly due to Scanian schools having holiday in week 8 and Stockholm schools in week 9; had it been the other way around, one can fairly assume the numbers would have been mostly flipped.)

  30. Ten Bears

    Just seven mo the ago – mid-October – all e-vapor products, cannabis and nicotine alike, were ‘temporarily’ banned due to the suspicion of their culpability in an outbreak of Severe Respiratory Distress Syndrome sweeping hillbilly heroin land. About the same time the Retards are accusing China of having let it out into the wild, are accusing China of handing out smallpox laced blankets to the natives. Are scapegoating their complete and utter failure to do something plans have been laid for for decades. Frankly, I find the fact that first guy to get it, in Washington state, was visited y someone from New York City. It is not in any way, the farthest thing possible, the ‘China Virus’.

    Trump let this thing in door, gave it time, continues to give it time, to spread. It is the Trump Virus. Trump Bug. Trump Flu. Trump Plague. Trump Pandemic. Drumpf uck owns this.

    Whatever happened to the vape-virus? Just six mo the ago …

  31. Joan

    @Eric, that tracks with my Swedish friend. And of course some European cultures are more touchy-feely than others, etc. I’m so glad I don’t have a Little Luther sitting on my shoulder!

  32. StewartM


    “Herd immunity” is not much immunity, and thus very expensive.

    For one thing, we do know that it’s possible to contract CoVID-19, recover, then get it again:

    For the second thing, the virus will mutate. So even if you develop a permanent immune response to strain 1, you may not have immunity to strain 2. We can only hope that natural selection will drive this virus into become less lethal; that’s a trend but not a given.

    This is all obvious to anyone who looks at the history of pandemics. In the 14th century, Europe was devastated by the Plague, losing about a third-of the population. So since most people were exposed, wouldn’t there be the coveted ‘herd immunity’? But the plague get coming back and killing more:

    From wikipedia:

    The plague repeatedly returned to haunt Europe and the Mediterranean throughout the 14th to 17th centuries.[136] According to Biraben, the plague was present somewhere in Europe in every year between 1346 and 1671.[137] (Note that some researchers [138] have cautions about the uncritical use of Biraben’s data.) The second pandemic was particularly widespread in the following years: 1360–1363; 1374; 1400; 1438–1439; 1456–1457; 1464–1466; 1481–1485; 1500–1503; 1518–1531; 1544–1548; 1563–1566; 1573–1588; 1596–1599; 1602–1611; 1623–1640; 1644–1654; and 1664–1667. Subsequent outbreaks, though severe, marked the retreat from most of Europe (18th century) and northern Africa (19th century).[139] The historian George Hussman claimed that the plague had not occurred in East Africa until the 1900s. However, other sources suggest that the Second pandemic did indeed reach Sub-Saharan Africa.[77]

    According to historian Geoffrey Parker, “France alone lost almost a million people to the plague in the epidemic of 1628–31.”[140] In the first half of the 17th century, a plague claimed some 1.7 million victims in Italy.[141] More than 1.25 million deaths resulted from the extreme incidence of plague in 17th-century Spain.[142]

    Now think of other diseases, like smallpox. Did herd immunity ever get rid of that one?

    “Herd immunity” is inefficient because one, reproducing any immunity to a pathogen by natural selection is a slow process, and two, the pathogen itself is mutating, this means many more outbreaks, and many more deaths, over many more years. Not a great idea if you ask most people. We only eliminated or mitigated most such diseases by medical advances, not by letting them rampage through the population. Sweden’s death total per one million is 132, which is actually 2-5 times higher than it’s neighbors and even higher than the US.

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