I haven’t written about this because others have been dealing with it well and pandemics aren’t something I know a great deal about.

It does look, now, like the Coronavirus stands a good chance of turning into a pandemic, and I think we should discuss preparation a bit.

Our world produces most goods in a highly fragile, just-in-time production chain. There may be multiple inputs to a finished good, but the parts are made in a very few places. Most countries do not produce everything they need, there are not many sources of key goods and warehouses do not keep large inventories; production tends to run just ahead of need. This is efficient, but it also means that any serious disruption to production can produce shortages almost immediately.

China is a lynchpin producer of a great number of goods, including medicines. Korea, which is starting to get hit, produces many goods as well. It’s hard to say who exactly produces what unless you’re an expert, for example, after Puerto Rico got hit by a hurricane the US experienced shortages of IV bags. Who knew that the primary IV bag supplier for the US was in Puerto Rico?

So in most cases I don’t think it’s worth spending a lot of time tracking specific dependencies, especially if you’re dealing with a complex chain with many inputs–hit it in one place and you can take out the entire production.

Because fighting a pandemic is mostly about isolating people, production hits are inevitable: You can’t let people go to work.

So, if there are things you need, stock up now so you can shelter in place for a couple months if you have to.

In particular, I want to emphasize looking at your health needs. Many, many drugs are made in China. If you are on something you need to stay alive, or you are on something with ugly withdrawal symptoms, like most SSRIs, drugs which affect GABA, etc, etc., go see your doctor and convince him to give you an extra prescription or two (2) months’ supply – then go fill it.

Yeah, I know this is hard, because doctors can be stubborn and stupid, and I know it may be hard for financial reasons, but if you can, do it.

I can’t guarantee you’ll need it, of course. I can guarantee that if you need it and you don’t have it, you’ll regret it.

Remember that the United States, among developed nations, is going to be uniquely shitty at public health because a lot of people won’t go to hospitals and so on because of money issues.

As for the rest: Wash your hands, don’t touch your face, etc. Remember that this is a particularly difficult bug: It’s too small for masks to work well, it doesn’t show symptoms for 5-24 days (reports differ), it lives on surfaces for days, etc. It is a fast mutating bug, and the theory is that that’s good, because it is more likely to mutate to be LESS dangerous over time–but that also means you may catch it more than once.

This bug is likely to highlight both the stupidity of and the weaknesses in how we’ve ordered production through the world. Anything that is important, any reasonably large nation should produce for itself–if can manage it at all. “Efficiency” gains or profit gains are not worth catastrophic failure vulnerability, or the political choice weakness which comes from dependence (not to mention how globalization has been deliberately used to crush labor).

Anyway, check your meds and make sure you’re not going to be undergoing involuntary withdrawal from something you need, or something with horrific withdrawal symptoms.

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