The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: Argentina

A Few Words About Argentina

Okay, so Argentina elected a neoliberal president. He went to deep austerity, removed capital controls, and sought an IMF bailout.

Now it looks like a socialist may win and markets are freaking out, because he may default on some of the debt and re-institute capital controls.

Argentina’s problems have a long history, but it’s worth remembering this: Before WWII, it was a first world country, with a standard of living about equal to Canada’s.

Argentina partially defaulted in 2001. We should remember that that default was caused by following the conservative policy of pegging the Peso to the dollar, which any moron should have known would eventually backfire.

It is also worth remembering that, when Argentina defaulted in 2001, it wasn’t actually allowed to. American courts wouldn’t let Argentina pay the creditors who allowed their debt to be reduced unless they also paid those debtors who didn’t take the deal.

We live in a stupid, perverse world where people don’t understand that there has to be a balance between debtors and creditors. Creditors are making a bet, and if they lend to the wrong entity, and that entity eventually can’t pay back the debt, they should have to eat their losses. Don’t lend to people who can’t pay you back. Everyone knew that Argentina was going to have debt problems, every time, but they took the chance because they wanted high returns.

But the central financial system, the NY and London courts, and the IMF act as debt collectors for people who want the upside of high payments from distressed borrowers without the downside of possibly losing the money.

Worse, they act as enforcers for bad actors, who won’t cut deals, and expect to litigate.

Debtors may lose some money, but leg-breaking countries for rich debtors kills and impoverishes poor people.

Now, none of this is to say Argentina hasn’t made mistakes. Flipping back and forth between neoliberals and socialists is stupid. Pick one, and suck it up. Electing Macri was stupid, but then being outraged when he does what a neoliberal technocrat would do (i.e., austerity and sucking up to the IMF) is equally stupid.

Pick a governing philosophy and elect governments that adhere to that philosophy until the leading parties all follow it (like when Labour became neoliberal under Blair, cementing Thatcher’s victory).

Right now, Argentina is getting the worst of both worlds.


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The Destruction of Latin America’s Left and Lessons for Everyone

I’ve wanted to write about this for a while, and this is a good place to start:

The so-called marea rosa, or ‘pink tide’, of allied leftist governments which held sway across Latin America in previous years is being rolled back. Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff was removed from power in a right-wing coup, co-conspirators of which have now managed to imprison the current presidential frontrunner, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Ecuador’s Lenin Moreno has stabbed his former leader Rafael Correa in the back by barring him from seeking re-election, while seemingly purging his cabinet of remaining Correa loyalists and beginning the process of allowing the US military back into the country.

Meanwhile in Argentina, the former President is also under criminal investigation.

This all seems, well, “they did bad things, they should be prosecuted,” but somehow other politicians, often clearly more corrupt, aren’t prosecuted. The prosecution of Lula, in particular, was clearly a way to stay in power, since all polls show he would have won the election.

The norms are breaking down in many nations, including the United States. What is done to win is illegitimate, as with Republican vote manipulation and the 2000 Supreme court decision; what is done afterwards to opponents is also often illegitimate, and if the wrong person wins, they are gone after legally.

Americans will immediately think of the efforts to get Trump, and some will assume it is in the same vein. To some extent it seems to be, in others it isn’t (again, he’s clearly in violation of Emoluments.) But it didn’t start with Trump, it started with Clinton, who had clearly done nothing that affected him as President. (That said, he and Newt Gingrich had an agreement in place to gut Social Security and Medicare, which impeachment sidetracked, so I’m not crying too much. Clinton was a right-winger in every important way.)

Corruption is bad, and should be purged, but when I see corruption investigations which are clearly aimed at one side and not both (as with Xi’s anti-corruption drive in China, which was overall good but somehow took out the other major power blocs in China) I suspect that it isn’t primarily about corruption.

And in Brazil, where most seem to agree that those attacking Dilma were, in fact, more corrupt than her, it’s more than hmmm.

This is an ugly game. In Latin America it is bi-partisan with respect to the US. Having Latin America be left-wing was something neither Democrats nor Republicans wanted.

Meanwhile Argentina is inking an agreement with the IMF for 50 billion in exchange for structural adjustments and the Ecuadoran President is clearly moving towards forcing Assange out of Ecuador’s London embassy. (Yes, yes, you may hate Assange for a variety of reasons, some legitimate, but he is not being targeted because he is not a nice man, but because both Democrats and Republicans, on record, want to punish him various leaks, especially Collateral Murder.)

This is a very dirty game, and left-wingers keep treating it as if it is not; as if there are rules, and both sides play by them. Increasingly, in the US that is not the case, and it is clearly not the case many other places. If your enemies win, they will destroy you by any means. You should think long and hard about what you will do to them if you get into power, because they know what they will do to you.


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