Justin Trudeau
So, as the polls predicted, the Liberals win the most seats, but just short of a majority. The Conservatives actually got slightly more of the popular vote at 33 to 34 percent, but as their support is geographically clustered, they received less seats.
The NDP lost seats, taking them down to 24. The Bloc went from almost none to probably 32 of Quebec’s 78 ridings, making them the third largest party. This shouldn’t be taken as meaning separatism is roaring back, the Bloc downplayed separatism, but did benefit from supporting the “no religious symbols law” in Quebec (which includes hijabs and so on). The Quebecois, like the French, are still big believers in secularism and not fans of multiculturalism.
The most likely result here is a Liberal/NDP coalition government, though Trudeau could try to govern as a minority. He won’t want to ally with the Bloc as they are still officially separatists, and the rest of Canada wouldn’t like that.
My read of Trudeau’s personality is that he’s woke in the most performative sense; he doesn’t actually believe in anything left-wing, really, and he won’t like allying with the NDP. I read Trudeau right when he became leader, noting that there was no chance in hell of any electoral reform under him unless it was ranked ballots, and I stated that he was an empty shirt. His betrayal of his promises to Canada’s indigenous people and his buying a pipeline indicate I was correct.
Trudeau would be more comfortable working with the Conservatives, in my view, but that’s impossible for a variety of reasons.
So, we’ll see what he does. I’d expect him to suck it up and do a coalition, then like his father, after having been forced to do some left-wing things by the NDP, to use those as proof that he’s left-wing and not an empty shirt, and call another election. (His father, though many things, was not empty, mind you.)
However, we’ll see. Trudeau’s primary characteristic is near narcissism. He’s always been beautiful, rich, and loved. He has near divine confidence that whatever he does is right, and he’s a neoliberal at heart.
As for the longer future, nothing about this election is good. The NDP continue to slide. The Conservatives are getting stronger, and the Liberals are just neoliberals. There is no sign that Canadian politics is getting healthier, other than a minor surge by the NDP towards the end. The choice remains one between “bad” or “terrible.”
The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.
Hugh
“If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal.” –Emma Goldman
In the US , Canada, the UK, Australia, most of the EU, it seems like a race to the bottom. We need real leadership to deal with real existential crises, and we are getting warmed over, more of the same neoliberalism. We need to come up with our own programs, and vote for them, not any particular political personality.
450.org
That’s such a cute photo of Trudeau holding the pandas like they’re his infant twins. He really is an animal lover. Unlike Trump. Could you see Trump holding these pandas? He’d grab their pussies and call them fake pandas.
Any way, that aside, it makes me want to vote for and support Trudeau so the photo is a success in this regard. Whoever thought up the idea is a brilliant strategist. Maybe Bernie should hire them. We need more photos of Bernie with various cute & coveted animals. Neoteny sells.
metamars
Off topic:
Some wag on twitter posted:
“I want to like Bernie Sanders, I really do, but I can’t help but notice that he’s causing poor people to act very angry and confident now rather than be quietly resigned to the depravities of capitalism the way I’ve grown to enjoy.”
https://twitter.com/proustmalone/status/1186270749058830338
I Hate Giving My Email
Welp, now I understand why you haven’t talked much about Canada over the past 4 years: it’s less depressing to talk about a different country’s downward trend than your own.
It’s like you said Ian, all I can do is make sure I survive the coming climate collapse, so that I can be one of the voices deciding what the future will be like. Josh Ellis is a huge inspiration to me, but I refuse to join Twitter, so I’m unable to tell him that.
Mel
Looks like The Big Playbook has worked again. The owners have set up two teams that hate each other so much, that the election was waged over keeping The Evil Ones out of power: over the choice of what will not be done. With that accomplished, and whichever government in power, the choice of what *will* be done is up to the owners.
With the minority government, there\’s a chance that a few non-owner things can get pushed onto the agenda.
fitzharry
The NDP should do a confidence and supply agreement but stay out of the government; then negotiate support for every major bill separately. They should not wreck their party over a few offices, as the LibDems did in the UK.
A1
Some comments for you Ian.
-Canada is ungovernable with the BQ
-Social Conservatism and Fiscal Conservatism and NeoLiberalism and Globalism all get used and abused in Canadian politics.
-Socially conservative immigrants (most of them) vote for more immigrants (especially family) and free stuff. Indians marrying their cousins (can’t get more socially conservative than that) voted NDP but really don’t support the LGTBQ agenda. Conservatives and Bloc are anti immigrant and this trumps the social conservative aspect. For now.
-Immigrants in Canada are not one big block and really don’t like each other. Just look at the Vancouver results to see this in action.
-The liberals are the only truly national party.
-There are two NDP’s – the resource based party and the woke urban party.
-Cuckservatives are alive and well in Canada – go check out Garth Turners site to see the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
-Conservatives should abandon Quebec and become an English only Socially Conservative party. Social Conservatism does not necessarily mean neo liberalism, globalism and low taxes. Let the cucks go to the Liberals. If the conservative were to abandon Quebec the leader would not be chosen by Quebec Dairy farmers and that would be a positive.
Tom
Ah Quebec, going out of its way to insult Malala who did far more for children than they ever did. Also Ian its Laïcité, not Secularism, there is a massive difference. A secular state doesn’t give a shit what you believe or wear so long as religion isn’t the basis of laws as opposed to humanistic principles. Laïcité which France and Quebec embrace is attacking Religion, and its a violation of human rights of others and backfires.
Ten Bears
Only a violation of human rights of others in their attacks on a specific religion. A proper application of the no religious symbols law would be no religious symbolism in the square … no crosses, six-pointed stars, crescents, pentagrams, hijabs and so on.
And bozos on street corners. What was it Jesus said about puffed-up pontificating pontificaters puffed-up-edly pontificating on street corners? Oh, right, put it in the closet.
Matthew 6:5-6:
You want bonus points for that?
Mt 6:1-3 (just prior to the above). Do it because it’s the right thing to do.
Stirling S Newberry
The Liberal Party just barely scraped in, which means they owe NDP alot. The LP will renege.
Hugh
Laïcité is certainly a form of secularism. It holds that religion is a private matter and should stay out of the public sphere. In France, social cohesion is seen as more important than religious expression in public spaces. In the US, more religious expression in public is tolerated. In both, there is considerable freedom of religion. The differences reflect their different histories. Both seek to accommodate religion where they can, but neither allows religion to trump their social priorities.
edmondo
That’s such a cute photo of Trudeau holding the pandas ….
It makes me wish that pandas were carnivorous.
Eric Anderson
edmondo:
Liked that so much I tweeted it 🙂
Bill Hicks
At least you have the NDP to vote for. In the U.S. we don’t even have that much. A vote for Sanders is still a vote for the god damned Democrats, and his failure to split with them and create a viable leftist party will utterly doom his movement and his legacy.
edmondo
“Sanders’…. failure to split with them and create a viable leftist party will utterly doom his movement and his legacy.”
That was his goal all along. Bernie wants to make sure you vote for shitty Democrats. That IS his legacy. Mission accomplished.
Bork
Until the NDP grows a pair and starts taxing a less theoretical fraction of the tax base – like the top third – they’re going to keep getting their ass kicked.