The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Class Warfare Page 29 of 36

Egypt, Revolutions and Food

Zero Hedge notes something interesting about food prices post-Tunisia:

Dow Jones reports that wheat futures just hit a 29-month highs on “strong global demand.” Per the newswire, Algeria bought 800,000 tons of milling wheat, with traders estimating the nation’s purchases for January at about 1.8M. Turkey and Jordan bought wheat last week after rising food prices helped fuel unrest in Tunisia.

This is something Stirling Newberry predicted 10 years ago: that the end of the “great moderation”, 30 years of declining commodity prices, would lead to political instability.

Meanwhile Siun is reporting on the clashes in Egypt, in particular in Suez.  One part, from Egyptian blogger Zeinobia struck me in particular:

Again the people of Suez are suffering from terrible economic conditions as the factories owners there started to use cheap Asian labor instead of them creating a huge unemployment problem in the city.

That, as I have been discussing in the past is something very simple: betrayal of the ordinary citizens of a state (Egypt), by that state’s elites, for their own crash enrichment.  (I am for immigration, I am not for guest workers.  I am not for bringing in cheap labor to undercut one’s own labor.)

The future is as follows: decreased agricultural land, decreased water, decreased cheap oil (which is what our agricultural system rests on.)  The inflation figures say “there is no inflation”, but that’s a lie, pure and simple.  Food prices are up, energy is killing people and commodities are up.  So-called “core inflation” is mostly inflation in things people can do without (toasters, etc…) while fuel and food inflation is in what people MUST buy.  The same is true, btw, of health care inflation.  When you’re dying or in pain or crippled, you have to pay.

Virtually every oligopoly in the world is trying to grab as much money as it can by raising prices in collusion while not improving service or goods quality unless they absolutely much.  And if you can even buy the good stuff, it’ll cost your through the nose.  As one of my friends quips, “I buy organic meat and eggs and milk because when I was a kid, that’s just what we called meat and milk and eggs”.  Make the regular quality shit, charge for the stuff that isn’t crap.

Food and fuel are flashpoints, as will be water, but things like access to the credit economy (including the ability to pay by credit or debit card for things that can only be bought electronically, not with cash), reliable fast access to the internet, and so on, will also be crimped in any nation where the powers that be allow it.

You now have a year to a year and a half at most before the next economic meltdown

The RNC is asking for 2.5 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years. Assume Obama and Dems split the difference (remember, Obama wanted a freeze already, anyway).  1.25 trillion.

The effects of that on the US economy, such as it is, will be catastrophic.

If you can work right now, do.  Earn as much money as you can, reduce your costs as low as you can and get ready for the next downturn.  It’s going to be ugly.  Jobs will continue to be shifted out of the country, Americans will continue to be turned into debt-serfs with every relationship a revenue stream for some entity which provides a necessary service (whether internet, credit, food, or whatever).  Your house probably can’t be sold for what it’s worth, since the banks have a ton of houses they need to sell, so don’t assume you have an asset worth its face value, instead evaluate it as housing.

Times are bad, they will get worse, especially as this type of austerity is happening in virtually every western country.  Expect both high inflation in what you actually need (food, for example) and high unemployment (the return of stagflation), whatever the “official” rate of inflation says.

This is what Americans voted for.  Republicans were very clear that this is what they wanted, and Obama spent his campaign talking about tax cuts, not spending.  They’ll meet somewhere in the middle. “No, let’s amputate at the hip, not the neck.”

The right wing isn’t going to stop violent rhetoric

In light of the attempted murder of Representative Giffords, in which others did die, many on the left have been saying that Republicans need to stop violent rhetoric, because some people take it seriously.  Crazies in some cases. (Note that it’s not clear that Loughner was necessarily one of them, mind you.)

But let’s assume the constant atmosphere of violent rhetoric did have some effect.  Why would the right stop it?  The press I’m reading and seeing is mostly of the “pox on both sides violent rhetoric” variety.   Yes, Palin is running from her crosshairs, but at the end of the day she was never viable and the people who support her, which is to say, give her money, aren’t going to stop doing so.  They’ll believe he was “just a crazy” or that Jared Loughner was really a left winger, of whatever it takes to believe it had nothing to do with her: or with them.  Two months from now this won’t be shown to have moved the needle on the polls, and it won’t have destroyed the career of anyone who mattered.

Moreover, the fact is that violence often does work.  For example, when Doctor Tiller, one of only three late term abortion providers in the entire country, was killed, his family chose to shut down his clinic.  His assassin got what he wanted, and said he was perfectly happy to go to jail.  And why not?  If you believe that Dr. Tiller was a mass murderer, then killing him is just.

As long as politicians who aren’t Republicans (I won’t say left wingers, Giffords isn’t particularly left wing) are constantly called traitors, some people will take that seriously.  And if they are traitors, well, they deserve death, don’t they?

Right wing talk of violence is acceptable in American society.  And it will continue because violence and the threat of violence works in American society.

Now let’s be clear, one reason it works is because politicians have, in fact, repeatedly and consistently, as a class, acted against the interests of Americans.  Americans have spent the past 35 odd years with a stagnant or declining standard of living.  The life expectancy of Americans recently dropped (which should tell you that all the numbers that say Americans aren’t getting slagged are BS), something which happened in Russia not long before their collapse.

Ordinary Americans work longer and harder and get a smaller proportion of the societies benefits every year.

Of course, right wing solutions aren’t, they’ll just make things worse. But Americans live in a complete propaganda state, and don’t know up from down.  The right controls every major media organ, and is able to get pluralities or majorities of Americans to believe things which simply aren’t true, like that Iraq had something to do with 9/11 (70% of Americans believed that.  That didn’t happen by mistake, since there’s no evidence of it.)

Confused, lied to, living in a world which doesn’t make any sense, because it isn’t intended to make sense, and in a situation where even if they aren’t personally in financial trouble, they are only one bad bounce away from winding up on the street, being bankrupted by health care bills and then dying anyway, what is amazing about American political violence isn’t that there is so much of it, but that there is as little as there is.

The pattern is clear enough.  Major corporate interests have bled the country white.  Whether these are financial interests, the military industrial complex, the telecom companies or the various medical interests, the result is the same: the rich are filthy rich, corporations making record profits and ordinary people taking it in the neck.  They have then bought up the major media, which they use for propaganda purposes.  Fox is the major offender, but no major outlet is immune.

The political class works for the corporate class, not the other way around. It doesn’t have to be that way, all the levers are available to crush the corporate class any time the political class wants to, but the fact remains that the corporate class calls the shots, not the other way around.  During the debate over TARP calls against ran from 100:1 against to 1200:1 against.  It still passed.  The public option was more popular than the health care bill that passed by a huge margin, but it was traded away early and never seriously considered.

It is useful to the corporate class for the political class to live in fear, however.  What I am hearing is that many politicians and their staff do draw a line between violent right wing rhetoric and what happened to Giffords.

But most members at the very top of the corporate class, like the Koch brothers, live in such rarified circumstances that they hardly ever see an ordinary person.  They fly in private jets, they stay in $50,000/night hotel rooms or private estates and so on.  Politicians, on the other hand, have to glad hand.  It is their job to handle ordinary people.  They are, and always will be, exposed to violence.

If that violence is inspired by the right, if the right are the people showing up with guns, well, what’s the problem, exactly, for the corporate class?  If politicians are scared to do anything non-right wing, how does that hurt the very rich?  Oh sure, violence might get out of control, but it’s pretty clear they don’t really believe that, or they wouldn’t have spent hundreds of millions on the Republican side of the last election, would they have?

No, Giffords is a sign post on the road.  That sign post may say stop, but this intersection will at most be a slight pause in the trip.

Wikileaks And The End of the Open Internet

Let’s just state the obvious here: we’re seeing the end of the open internet with what is being done to Wikileaks.  It’s one thing for Amazon to toss them, it’s another thing entirely to refuse to propagate their domain information.  This has been coming for quite some time, and Wikileaks is not the first domain to be shut down in the US, it is merely the highest profile.  Combined with the attempt to make NetFlix pay a surcharge or lose access to customers, this spells the end of the free internet.

The absurdity, the sheer Orwellian stupidity of this is epitomized by the State Department telling students at elite colleges not to read the leaks, or they won’t get jobs at State.  As if anyone who isn’t curious to read what is in the leaks, who doesn’t want to know how diplomacy actually works, is anyone State should hire.  In a sane world, the reaction would be the opposite: no one who hadn’t read them would be hired.

This is reminiscent of the way the old Soviet Union worked, with everyone being forced to pretend they don’t know what they absolutely do know, and blind conformity prized over ability.

Meanwhile a worldwide alert is out for the horrible Julian Assange for rape, aka: not using a condom.  I certainly won’t defend not using a condom when your partner wants you to, if that’s what happened, but those guilty of such crimes don’t usually have worldwide manhunts called against them, do they?  Meanwhile the squishy left wrings its hands and wails.  Let me put it to you this way: no one who was willing to put themselves out there the way Assange did is not a massive risk taker.  Going into this he had to know that eventually he would be locked up, discredited, killed or some combination.  Prudent men and women who would never do anything stupid (like sleep with groupies) would not have created Wikileaks in the first place and would not have leaked the inflammatory material that Assange has put out there in the second place.

In the spirit of a rambling post, let’s move back to the internet.  Leaving aside censorship, which is older than writing, and is banal, boring and predictable, especially from states on auto-pilot to authoritarianism like the US, the economic model to use when thinking about the internet is the old railroads of the 19th and early 20th century.  The railroads were the only way to get your products to market if you weren’t on the coast, a major river or canal.  They were hated, loathed with a passion, by farmers.  Why?  Because they took all the surplus value, all the profit.  If you weren’t willing to pay, you went out of business.  Even if you were willing to pay, you wound up in hock to them.  You worked for the railroad, period.  All or virtually all of what would have been profit went to them.

When the only way to get your product to market is an unregulated monopoly or oligopoly they will take it all.  The result isn’t just unprofitable businesses, it’s failed businesses and businesses that never get off the ground, because they can’t afford to pay the freight, or more accurately, the vig.  Oligopolies in between producers and consumers always strangle the economy.  Always.

And, on top of p0litical repression of free speech, that’s what’s coming to the internet near you.  The essentially free and open internet is dying and it will soon be dead.

(Note: text changed from Hilary Clinton to State department telling students)

The real reason for grope-athon and porn-scanners

Matt Stoller notes:

Why does flying sucks more today? Rich people fly in private jets, so the powerful no longer hear complaints from their friends.

This comes back to what I wrote before, but with respect to public schools and the Iraq war.  If important people don’t have skin in the game, things don’t get fixed and the quality of whatever experience they don’t experience doesn’t get better.  Everyone, most especially the rich and powerful, must fly on the same planes, must be subject to the draft, must have their kids go to the same schools and so on.  Only then will the general quality be high.

To the extent possible the rich have created an entire alternative structure: they don’t fly on the same planes, their kids don’t go to the same schools, they don’t fight in the wars, they have hotels that you will never enter (can you afford 50K a night?)  They live in a system parallel to that of ordinary people.

The rich must never, ever, be allowed to opt out of the shared social and economic experience.  Fly first class?  Sure, but not on private jets.   Drive in a limo?  Sure, but not fly in a helicopter avoiding congestion.  Get a room to themselves in the hospital?  Sure, but not jump the queue for treatment in front of anyone.

As soon as you let money allow people to avoid the queue entirely, those people with power will not care about what is happening to ordinary people anymore.

This is true of general inequality as well.  Why don’t the rich take the decline of the middle class seriously?  Why aren’t they extending UI?  Why do they yawn about the current economic crisis?  Why did they do nothing to stop it from happening when any idiot could see it coming?

Because it’s not their experience.  For over 30 years they have gotten rich, rich, rich!  Everyone they know who matters to them — their friends, their spouses, their mistresses and boy-toys, their children — are doing not “just fine” but gangbusters!  And after the 2008 financial collapse, their wealth has rebounded and corporate profits are at near all-time highs.

Life is good, baby!  There aren’t any real problems.  Not for the rich.  And, as George Bush so memorably said, “who cares what you think?”

The porno-scanners are making important people rich, and those important people fly on private jets.  So, what exactly is the problem?

I don’t see a problem…

The cost of being cheap

Over at Barry Ritholz’s there’s a discussion of the cost of a business being cheap.  Barry recounts how he used to work for a cheap employer and as a result he sent possible employees who could have earned his employer millions to other companies.  He then asks if others are vindictive bastards like him.

Let me answer.  Hell yes.

Some years ago I worked for a medium sized multinational.  I was an hourly employee, meaning I was supposed to get overtime.  I was in sales contact, I was one of the admin people who marshalled new contracts through the system, contracts which were worth, in a year, no exaggeration, in the 10s of millions of dollars.  Some years in the low 100s.

At the time I was handling almost twice the normal case-load.  So I was working a lot of overtime.  I was hauled into my manager’s office and told I had to stop claiming so much overtime.  I pointed out my case load.  My manager noted two other people with about the same case load: “they aren’t claiming all this overtime.”

Me: “they are in before me and they leave after me. They may not be claiming it, but they are working it.”

Boss: “it doesn’t matter, I’m getting complaints from upper management.”

So, for a few weeks, I worked to rule.  I worked 37.5 hours a week, then went home.  The problem with that approach was that when things went wrong, the person the customers screamed at and complained about was me. So eventually, I gave in.  I worked the hours, and I didn’t charge for them.

But I never, ever, forgot.  And in perfectly legal ways, I cost the company millions of dollars of business over the rest of my career there.  After all, I was in daily, hell, hourly, contact with the people who decided whether to send my company business.  And I never, ever, pushed for business to come to my employer unless it was clear cut in the best interest of my contacts and their customers.  If there were any legitimate negatives to sending business there, I gave them.

And because my contacts trusted me, because I always played fair by them, they listened.

Millions of dollars of business, because my employers were too cheap to pay me what would have probably amounted to two or three thousand dollars of overtime.

Because, yes, I am a vindictive son-of-a-bitch when I am treated unfairly.  If I work the hours, you will pay me for them. If you choose not to, you WILL pay a price for it, one way or the other.  (On the other hand, if you treat me well, I will work my guts out for you.  One place had to replace me with 2 1/2 people when I left.)

I discussed with this with a friend who had been a senior executive once, his response was instructive.  “Look Ian, even if they knew, they wouldn’t have really cared. ”

Me: “What, I’m costing them millions!”

Executive: “So?  They figure that as much as they are screwing their employees and causing unhappy employees to cost them money, so is everyone else in the business, so it all evens out.”

Me: “But that means someone who treated their employees well would have a competitive advantage.”

Him: “They don’t think that way.  Screwing employees is how they made their way up the ranks to where they are.”

Me: “that doesn’t make sense.”

Him: “Nope, but it’s true.”

Then, I went to work for our American subsidiary for a few weeks.  And they were far, far worse.

But that’s another story…

Wow, A Sherrif Who Does His Goddamn Job Even Against Banks

I’m flabbergasted.  How they hell did this man slip through the system?

Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart said he is only ordering evictions to resume because county prosecutors told him that he was legally bound to carry out foreclosure eviction orders signed by a judge.

“For the people who have been involved with this and think now that because the (Cook County) State’s Attorney’s office has ordered me to go ahead with the evictions that everything’s fine . . . No, we are going to be looking at you for criminal violations,” Dart said. “You may have got through one storm now, the other one is coming.”

Dart singled out Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and GMAC/Ally Financial last month for problems with eviction notices. He said Friday that investigators continue to find problems with bank employees signing off on foreclosure documents they haven’t read, although he did not single out individual companies.

“When we asked a month ago . . . send me an affidavit to say that everything was done legally, not one organization, law firm handling these cases, not one of them sent in one document,” Dart said. “Not one, and they had over a month to do it.”…

I suppose I should point out that this is what EVERY Sherrif’s office in the US should be doing.  We know fraud is widespread, they should not just serve.

And I’ll note that this may well boomerang back on corrupt and/or lazy judges.  Investigations are bound to turn up that they didn’t do their jobs.

Labor accepting permanent defeat?

This is exactly what you MUST never do as a union:

Even at manufacturing companies that are profitable, union workers are reluctantly agreeing to tiered contracts that create two levels of pay.

In years past, two-tiered systems were used to drive down costs in hard times, but mainly at companies already in trouble. And those arrangements, at the insistence of the unions, were designed, in most cases, to expire in a few years.

Now, the managers of some marquee companies are aiming to make this concession permanent. If they are successful, their contracts could become blueprints for other companies in other cities, extending a wage system that would be a startling retreat for labor.

Doing this splits the union.  Solidarity is the first rule of unions, if you sell anyone down the river, you weaken yourself fatally.

On a larger scale, the destruction of unions remains job of the oligarchy, especially that part of the oligarchy which prefers Republicans to Democrats.  Why?

  • Because union members vote Democratic, even if they are part of a demographic which normally vote Republican.
  • Because the oligarchy’s overall goal is to crush wages and benefits, both to pay for their bailouts and as a permanent, long-running goal. They do not really believe that domestic consumer demand is necessary to their own prosperity, and prefer workers who are in permanent debt-slavery.  For a generation and a half now they have made most of their money through leveraged financial games, asset bubbles and by offshoring and outsourcing jobs.  American workers are nothing to them, less than nothing.

Update: My friend Matt Stoller has up his first blog post in about 2 years, on debt-peonage.  A good read and some interesting information on where the phrase “the man” originally came from.  I’m sad Grayson lost, but it’s nice that Matt can write again.

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