The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

April 28th US Covid Data

Our benefactor writes:

A couple more days in this direction, and we may actually have progress. The current doubling rate would get us to two million cases and 120 thousand deaths by the end of May. Hopefully, that does not happen.

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  1. prodigalson

    My internal gunkolator is now keeping an eye on these daily numbers and trends, but with an eye on what happens in 2-3 weeks after the “fruits” of all these states re-opening has time to percolate.

    So potentially a lessening of cases, and a week or so lag in deaths, then a sudden rebound in new cases starting with the states that opened up soonest, and then another spike in deaths. Maybe? Do the big cities keep a relatively high but stable number as they reopen as the virus churns through the population?

    Too many variables. We’re going to stock up though during this “lull” and try to get about 20% over what we’d normally buy for groceries to build up a buffer. Haven’t seen any disinfecting wipes since this kicked off months ago though.

  2. Stirling S Newberry

    The real number will start coming out when governments start to say “Well actually here are the real numbers.” Until then we are going to see undercounts and reassigns.

  3. Zachary Smith

    Too many variables. We’re going to stock up though during this “lull” and try to get about 20% over what we’d normally buy for groceries to build up a buffer. Haven’t seen any disinfecting wipes since this kicked off months ago though.

    IMO the ‘stocking up’ is prudent. Not because I expect any specific future events, but anything could happen. Regarding the ‘wipes’, I’d suggest searching for bottom-of-the-line baby butt wipes. Putting them in a big canister and pouring isopropyl over them has been the preferred method of my in-the-car cleanups for years.

    At the LGM site (one I generally don’t care for anymore) was a nice nugget of information/opinion.

    The whole “stay at home for X weeks if you’re not an essential worker and then gradually get back to semi-normal” plan made sense, to the extent it did, only in the context of doing a bunch of stuff (contact tracing, isolation of infected people, including removing people from their families, etc), that the US as a whole seems to have almost literally no interest in trying to do.

    The coronavirus is obviously highly infectious, and in addition many people are contagious when they’re completely asymptomatic. As Frum says, testing lots of people — and we’re not even doing that yet, not really — is just a first step toward doing a bunch of other things. But those other things are really hard and expensive and unpleasant, and we (meaning the American ruling class) don’t do hard and expensive and unpleasant.


    The real “plan,” such as it is, is to let a lot of people die.

    The fellow has come to the same conclusion as myself – the Powers That Be have decided to do a “sacrifice the weak” drill. I recall what Tom Hanks said about his wife –

    Tom has revealed his wife was so sick with the illness she was forced to crawl from bed to bathroom.

    I’ve never been quite that sick, yet it’s my understanding these two weren’t hospitalized! So the new game is one I don’t care to play on account of the price the losers pay. Future trips out will have me wearing either a high-quality homemade mask or an N95. Even if I’m the only one still doing that. My store-bought surgical masks will go into a temporary retirement.


    Just as I surmised and have stated on several occasions.

    Chinese scientists said this week that they believe the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, predicting that the disease could possibly return periodically like the flu.

    A group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing on Monday that the virus will likely not disappear like SARS because it can infect asymptomatic carriers, Bloomberg News reported, so people can spread the virus without experiencing symptoms like a fever and cough.

    The researchers said Chinese health officials are still confirming dozens of asymptomatic carriers every day, the news outlet reported.

  5. ProNewerDeal

    There was news that Trump promised that if a uninsured citizen gets COVID-19, she will not be charged for the treatment.

    My perception that this is an vague promise, that has NOT actually been addressed LEGALLY in any of the Federal COVID stimulus bills (the last bill was the COVID 3.5 version a few days ago according to Kyle Kulinski/SecularTalk). Nor have state governments authorized such coverage.

    My perception is that MAYBE the COVID TEST itself may be free, but the actual subsequent TREATMENT (such as ICU care, intubation, etc) is billed.

    IIRC a media report anecdote (not data but better than nothing) that an uninsured woman with a severe/ICU-type COVID case got a $35K bill from COVID treatment.

    Thanks in advance for any thoughts/corrections on my perception on the COVID treatment of uninsured patient situation (BTW thankfully I or my loved ones are not this case of an uninsured citizen currently with COVID, I just want to ascertain what the current reality is).

  6. Anthony Cooper

    In some circles I run in, the reassignment is argued it is going the other way, that it is being over-reported. The general rationale being that it’s good for the media – if it bleeds it leads argument.

    I do my best to push back on this perception- the only thing that has worked to break through is my asking, ‘how many bodies would it take for you to take this seriously? ‘

  7. Eric Anderson

    Anthony said:
    “how many bodies would it take for you to take this seriously”?

    I’ve been asking ammosexuals the same question for years. I imagine the two demographics would share a significant amount of space in a Venn Diagram. They don’t care. They hide behind political rationalizations, when in truth they only want an excuse to live by nothing more than their id — selfish to the point of sociopathy.

    Oh, and somehow or another they’re all going to heaven.

  8. highrpm

    a voice of reason,

    Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski Update Interview | Episode 5

  9. Benjamin


    That actually seems to have almost happened, but the American Hospital Association refused the money:

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