The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: September 2020 Page 3 of 4

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 13, 2020

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

Some graphs and comments for LABOR DAY
Tony Wikrent September 7, 2020 [Real Economics]

Industrial Revolutionaries: To understand how to revitalize our economy, you only have to look back to the founders.
Ganesh Sitaraman, September 10, 2020 [The American Prospect]

As policymakers discuss what industrial policy should look like today, the four traditions in American industrial policy offer important lessons. First and foremost, any public policy that shapes or structures a sector of the economy is an industrial policy, even the Jacksonian approach, which rejects strategic planning in any coherent sense. The choice to let powerful individuals and corporations pursue the industries they want, structure them how they want, and lobby government for ad hoc policy changes is just as much of an industrial policy as anything else, albeit not a very good one. Indeed, the “return” of industrial policy is better described as a rejection of the Jacksonian tradition.
For those who advocate for a new industrial policy, the Hamiltonian tradition offers a natural starting point. But the risks inherent in the Hamiltonian approach should be particularly concerning at this moment. There is already a pervasive view that the system is rigged, captured and corrupted by the powerful. Industry concentration in sector after sector is at an apex, bringing economic and geographic inequality with it. Applying the Hamiltonian approach in narrow areas, like determining supply chain needs or the production of public-health materials in a crisis, is both inevitable and desirable. But the agenda for contemporary Hamiltonians must be more than advocating for industrial policy; it must also be designing policies to prevent regulatory capture, whether as a function of lobbying, the revolving door, or personal friendships and elite culture. Failure to do so threatens greater inequality of wealth and power, and with it, the possibility of oligarchy or another populist backlash.

The Madisonian and Franklinian traditions, meanwhile, are in serious need of revival. Massive public spending in research and development, a public option for broadband and postal banking, and network infrastructure regulation, from tech platform rules to net neutrality, could provide a new foundation for discoveries and commerce. At the same time, antitrust enforcement and the revival of separation-of-function regimes in tech, telecom, banking, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors will revitalize competition, enhance innovation, reduce the power of rent-seeking lobbyists, and ensure a more equitable economy through all regions of the country. These two traditions also work together as a system: Government-funded research and regulated network infrastructure provide the foundation and keep the country investing in a longer-term future; a competitive ecosystem sits atop that base, pursuing innovation in a manner that doesn’t concentrate wealth or power.

The challenge for Madisonians and Franklinians is that their traditions have been deliberately attacked for decades by Jacksonians, so much so that they are largely forgotten, and if remembered, much maligned.

“Elon Musk’s growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies”
[Los Angeles Times, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 9-8-20]

“Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, together have benefited from an estimated $4.9 billion in government support, according to data compiled by The Times. The figure underscores a common theme running through his emerging empire: a public-private financing model underpinning long-shot start-ups. A looming question is whether the companies are moving toward self-sufficiency — as Dolev believes — and whether they can slash development costs before the public largesse ends. Tesla and SolarCity continue to report net losses after a decade in business, but the stocks of both companies have soared on their potential; Musk’s stake in the firms alone is worth about $10 billion. (SpaceX, a private company, does not publicly report financial performance.) Musk and his companies’ investors enjoy most of the financial upside of the government support, while taxpayers shoulder the cost.”

How to Save a Dying Republic: Lincoln and the Greenbacks

Matthew Ehret [TheDuran, via Mike Norman Economics 9-10-20]

Open Thread

Use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Remember 9/11, When America Went Mad

So, it’s the anniversary of when America went even more insane, because they lost less people than their sanctions on Iraq had killed during the preceding years. (But those people were important people, not faceless masses.)

I remember 9/11 well, I was working in a big corporate office. My customers were American. Everything ground to a halt, a big screen was put up so people could watch the events, since clearly no work was going to get done. We even had customers in the Towers, though my personal closest customer was a couple blocks away.

I turned to a co-worker and said, “Jesus, I hope the Americans don’t attack the wrong people.” He thought that was absurd.

We all know how that turned out, In addition 9/11 was used to turn the US into a police state thru the Patriot Act, which only one Senator, Russ Feingold, had the guts to oppose. (Some time later he lost a re-election, since the last thing most Americans want in a Senator is judgment, bravery and integrity as a package.)

America went on to openly torture, invade a country which had nothing to do with 9/11, set up a worldwide assassination program, and Senators also signed over essentially all the remains of their war powers, so that any President could declare war any time for any reason. (Lucky that, so far, Trump hasn’t taken advantage of that. Obama, of course, did and there are open-air slave markets in Libya now.)

Bin Laden’s plan was to get the Americans to stop the proxy wars and invade and occupy using their own troops, so they could be defeated and the myth of their superiority destroyed, while they suffered the effects of imperial over-reach: wasting resources and time on far foreign wars. (In many schema of imperial collapse, this is one of the primary causes.)

At first it looked like he’d failed. Afghanistan in the first couple years didn’t do much to America. Then, in what Bin Laden must have viewed as Allah intervening, the Americans went mad and attacked Iraq, which had nothing to do with 9/11 and whose leader was a secular Arab and enemy of Bin Laden’s.

Anyway, great and good are not synonyms and bin Laden was the first great man of the 21st century. He may have died, but so what, he basically accomplished his goals, and so much of US rapidity of decline can be traced back to 9/11.

Bin Laden understood himself and he understood his enemy. He won. America, despite being overwhelmingly more powerful, understood neither itself nor its enemies, and lost.

Nothing important to stop American decline or even slow it has been done since 9/11, it’s all been pedal to the metal, and now there are nationwide protests; riots; the most important state in America (that’s California, because it creates the future) is on fire, and the US is ruled by a reality TV star who wasn’t even a good billionaire.

On the anniversary of 9/11 remember, Bin Laden punked America. He won. You lost. You lost because you acted like monsters and fools, lived down to his opinion of you. Bin Laden was evil, to be sure, but he knew America was evil and stupid, bet hard on America’s evil and stupidity, and won.

If Americans want to save their country from decline and collapse, all they have to do is be smart and good.

So far the smart money is that they’ll do neither of those things.

I wish it were otherwise.


Everything I write here is free, but rent isn’t, so if you value my writing, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

 

September US Covid Update

So, it’s been a while since we talked about Covid. The United States has been in a long slow decline, which you can see in the graphs below (both based on CDC numbers, which will be understatements.)

Cases:

Deaths:

As the charts show, the death rate was highest at the start. This is both because the initial cases blew through old folks homes and because we have become better at treating cases.

The trend looks good, but a lot will depend on how school and university re-openings go. My guess is that we’ll see a spike in cases in about 2 to 3 weeks, then a larger spike about 2 to 3 weeks after the universities send their students home. It is also true that I’m seeing a lot of states starting to have an R over 1 (each case infects more than one person.)

The fundamental issue here is that the shutdowns were never done properly in most cases. Here’s an exception:

The key to defeating this was always to do a hard shutdown, with no one but actual essential workers. Doing so in a widespread would have required actual income support, a cancellation of all mortgage, rent and and other payments, and actual organization to get people the food and medicine and other supplies they needed to genuinely shelter in place. Mandatory masks on leaving the house, etc, etc…

This has been done successfully by multiple countries, it’s not an unsolved problem, but it was never done in the United States and the result is an endless misery of cases, never ending. Openings from such shut downs as were put in place were done too soon, as well, and there are going to wind up either being reversals of many of those openings or a decision made to just suck it up and live with the cases.

Doing the latter, of course, means that America will be a pariah nation, with Americans unable to travel to other countries until there is an effective vaccine and Americans take it.

There are multiple causes for why the US has performed this way, but the simplest is that rich people aren’t scared any more (the truly rich get tested every day, and so do the people who interact with them, plus they can stay isolated) and Covid has thus been mostly affecting poor people and minorities, with some middle class folks getting hit. (Middle class to actual rich is poor, however,  you aren’t human to them.)

(Chart from Bloomberg. Now imagine the number for those who really matter, who earn, say, five million or more.)

In addition, the rich have become much richer during Covid as small and medium businesses shut down, they have consolidated.

So it’s all good to those who rule America, in fact it’s a once a decade opportunity to consolidate their wealth and power (the last one being the financial crisis, which, yes, did leave them richer.)

The rich were bailed out, you weren’t, they’re getting richer, and that will continue.

Keep wearing masks, take vitamin D3 every day, and hunker down, this is going to go on for quite a while yet. and there’s a good chance of another bad wave.

I’m sorry if you’re American and not rich. Your elites kill you for money, and there is nothing I can do about it but what I’ve been doing for a couple decades now: warn you so you can try and prepare for the next way their depraved greed will endanger your life, health and prosperity. To be sure, there are countries where the citizens have it worse, but few where it is more needless.


Everything I write here is free, but rent isn’t, so if you value my writing, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

 

Some graphs and comments for LABOR DAY

For Labor Day today, David Sirota wrote:

if we hope to ever rebuild an economy that works for everyone, we’re going to need many more workers in unions and a much stronger labor movement.

and posted this graph:

Sirota continued:

This graph comes from the Economic Policy Institute — it shows the relationship between union density and the percentage of national income going to the richest 10 percent of Americans. As you can see, the larger the share of the American workforce that’s unionized, the lower the share of national income goes to the super-rich — and vice versa.

I would like to reinforce Sirota’s point by adding a graph from Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century, page 24.

Clearly, there are four shifts that occur:

  • Around 1928, when income inequality stops rising;
  • Around 1940, when income inequality begins to be overcome;
  • Around 1945, when this improvement ends and income inequality remains about the same for the next three decades; and
  • Around 1980, when income inequality suddenly begins to worsen.

The first shift Piketty has explained: the stock market crash of October 1929 and the onset of the Great Depression, which destroyed much of the wealth of the top one percent. (In the financial crisis of 2008-2009, by contrast, the Bush and Obama administrations, and the Federal Reserve, pulled out all the stops to prevent the squillionaires from losing, by pouring $29 trillion in the banking and financial systems. Result: unlike the years after the 1929 crash, in the years after the 2009 crash, income inequality continued to worsen.)

The next three shifts I think are even more interesting, if we plot onto Piketty’s graph three events from the AFL-CIO’s Labor History Timeline:

 

The 1937 strike forced General Motors to accept the UAW as the organized representative of its wage employees, and set the pattern for labor relations until 1980.

The Taft–Hartley Act — the official name is the Labor Management Relations Act of 1947 — was vetoed by President Harry S. Truman. But the Republicans had gained control of both the House and the Senate in the elections of 1946, and passed the bill over Truman’s veto. The Act prohibited unions from engaging in wildcat strikes, solidarity strikes, political strikes, secondary boycotts, secondary and mass picketing, and closed shops. Monetary donations by federal political campaigns to unions were made illegal. Taft–Hartley also allowed states to pass right-to-work laws banning union shops, and required union officers to submit signed affidavits to the federal government swearing that they were not communists and did not support the Communist Party.

Side note: Republican Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio would go on to lose the Republican nomination  for President in 1952 to General Dwight Eisenhower. Taft’s defeat led to a group of reactionary extremists like Kansas oil tycoon Fred C. Koch, and William Buckley, son of a Texas oil baron, to begin building the modern conservative and libertarian movements. [1]

Reagan’s election as President in 1980 also marks a dramatic shift for the worse in dozens of economic indicators and statistics, such as debt ratios; capital spending as a percent of GDP; government funding of science and technology; production and exports of capital goods; and all the imaginable measures of financialization. Contrary to the fantasies of the Republicans and right wing, Reagan’s election in 1980 clearly marks the decline of the United States as a world power.

Most people can pretty well figure out the causal relationships. If they’re not indoctrinated with conservatism or neoliberlism, that is. (The hostility to organized labor runs deep in these ideologies. In a Mont Pelerin Society Tract dated 1949, Friedrich von Hayek, funded by the Foundation for Economic Freedom among others, wrote, “the question of how the powers of the trade-unions can be appropriately delimited by law as well as in fact is one of the most important of all the questions which we must give our attention.”[1]  Corey Robin has revealed how von Hayek and his collaborator, Ludwig von Mises, both shared and were shaped by, Friedrich Nietzsche’s contempt for Europe’s workers, and enchantment with European aristocrats, in whose image they molded the mythical hero of the capitalist “entrepreneur.”)

If we want to actually fix the problem of income inequality, we have to give back to organized labor the power it had, but which was stripped away by the Republicans’ 1947 Taft-Hartley Act. So far, there are no leading Democrats calling for the Act’s repeal. That has to change.

[1] Heather Cox Richardson, How the South Won the Civil War: Oligarchy, Democracy, and the Continuing Fight for America (Oxford University Press, 2020), pp. 153 ff.

[2] Yves Steiner, “The Neoliberals Confront the Trade Unions,” in Philip Mirowski and Dieter Plehwe, editors, The Road from Mont Pèlerin: The Making of the Neoliberal Thought Collective (Harvard University Press, 2009), page 182.

Wage Slavery on Labor Day

One of the simplest ways to evaluate a society is by the common denominators of the lives most people have to live. For a lot of history that was farming. Sure, there were people who weren’t farmers, but 80% to 95% of the population farmed.

Most people in the modern world are wage laborers. They work for someone else, and without the money they earn from their employment they would be homeless, go hungry and after a few years of misery, likely die.

We have a weird idea of freedom “I am free to sell my labor,” that many people who lived would consider essentially slavery, which is, in fact, why the term wage slavery was coined. Most of us are not free to not take orders, only (maybe) to choose our boss.

Most of the time we don’t even really get to choose who gives us orders: there aren’t a lot of options and we need a job now. If the labor market is bad, and it’s been bad in most places for most of my life (there have been a few exceptions), bosses get to choose workers, not workers bosses. You take what you can get, put up with what you must, because the alternative is worse.

Some of us get good labor jobs, some of us bad labor jobs, but most of us ultimately take orders, often daily, hourly or even as often as every few minutes (if you’ve never had a job like that be grateful).

We are wage slaves. It’s not as bad as traditional slavery, but you’re still spending your entire working life doing what other people tell you (after spending your childhood obeying teachers.)

We’re a society of order-takers, who MUST take orders or die (with few exceptions and the exceptions cannot scale to the majority, there aren’t enough slots). Yet, somehow, we think we’re free.

That’s the sign of a very good indoctrination and propaganda system.

Anyway, enjoy Labor Day, but remember, wage-slaves treated better are still wage-slaves. The idea is to change who gives the orders from them to ourselves.


Everything I write here is free, but rent isn’t, so if you value my writing, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 6, 2020

by Tony Wikrent

RIP David Graeber

David Graeber, Caustic Critic of Inequality, Is Dead at 59
[New York Times 9-4-20]

Anthropologist David Graeber, the man behind ‘We are the 99%’ slogan, dead at 59

[RT, via Mike Norman Economics 9-3-20]Graeber’s 2001 book, Debt: The First 5000 Years, ruthlessly slaughtered one of the most sacred cows of mainstream economic orthodoxy — that barter was the first means of economic transactions. Graeber conclusively marshaled the archaeological and anthropological evidence that debt older than both barter and cash. Unsurprisingly, orthodox economists have ignored Graeber’s work to this day. 


R.I.P. David Graeber
Ian Welsh, September 5, 2020

At age 59, he had probably another 10 years and two or three books, possibly important, in him.

De Gaulle quipped that “the graveyards are full of indispensable (people)” and mostly he’s right, most people’s deaths don’t matter much to anyone who didn’t know them. Someone will replace them who will do about as good a job. But an intellectual or artist worthy of the name is, in some sense, indispensable. There are works they will not do, and if they don’t do them no one will.

I didn’t know Graeber, and I can’t claim to be personally sad. But he had important work still to be done, and no one will do it now. And without him to defend Debt from its attackers, it will lose luster and importance (because it’s the sort of book which must be destroyed by status-quo defenders, as it suggests capitalism is not what it claims to be.)

Manners, Deference, and Private Property: Or, Elements for a General Theory of Hierarchy
pdf, by David Graeber, 2007

Strategic Political Economy

Oligarchy and Democracy From the Civil War to the Present
Bill Moyers interview of Heather Cox Richardson, August 3, 2020 [CommonDreams]

Yes, the Civil War brought an end to the slave order of the South and the rule of the plantation oligarchs who embodied white supremacy. But the Northern victory was short lived — Southern ideals spread quickly to the West.<

Open Thread

Feel free to use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

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