The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Greek election consequences and the shape of the developed world’s future

will be more years of austerity, people winding up on the street, suicides and outright starvation.  In this fertile ground, the neo-nazi right will rise.  The left will most likely not compete, because they will refuse to create an enforcer class to protect their own people.  The police in Greece voted about 50% for the Golden Dawn, they will not protect the left, either, but will enable the rise of the Golden Dawn.

Under these circumstances a coup of some variety, whether military or otherwise (remember, Hitler never won a majority) is very likely to occur.  By blocking the rise of the left so that Greece can be looted, the oligarchs have created their own doom.

In general terms, we are in a pre-revolutionary period.  The supreme court coup in Egypt, the outright refusal to obey even the letter of the law let alone the spirit in the case of Wikileaks and Assange, the reign of Obama, are teaching an entire generation that you cannot fix the system from within, through the mechanisms of the old system or through even semi-peaceful protest.  The Pacific free trade deal will enshrine even more draconian IP laws and will extend NAFTA style takings regulations which give multinational companies sovereignty over governments.

This will not stand.  There will be global war, and there will be global revolution.  We are on track for it.  The question is when and how.  I would guess in less than 20 years the world will fully convulse.  Many of the current generation of oligarchs will be dead by then and will win the death bet, but their heirs will reap the whirlwind.  As for the population, I expect a billion deaths or so over the next 25 years from famine, disease, war and environmental issues.

Both populations and the oligarchs have refused, over and over again, to do what is necessary to peacefully restructure the world economy, but instead have opted to kick the can down the road.  Each kicking of the can has led to more corrupt and sclerotic economics and politics.

In the period between now and the revolution, some nations will take control of their own destinies.  Offered a choice between austerity in the international system and nationalism, they will choose nationalism.  It will not be as comfortable as being a member of the old international order from before the financial collapse, but that is not being offered.  A few nations will be able to work wedges to stay in the system and not suffer too much (Germany, France).  But most developed world nations will continue to suffer real declines in their standard of living, driven by inequality and the resource trap which we refuse to restructure out of.  The electrical economy wants to happen, but it will not happen on a wide scale until after war and revolution.  Such is the choice both our elites and the regular population continue to make.

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107 Comments

  1. Morocco Bama

    …..oh, and by the way, Happy Father’s Day.

  2. Radical Livre

    “(…)The supreme court coup in Egypt, the outright refusal to obey even the letter of the law let alone the spirit in the case of Wikileaks and Assange, are teaching an entire generation that you cannot fix the system from within(…)”

    Eh, Supreme Court coups are not rare (remember Honduras?). The whole point of a supreme court, as designed by the American Founding Fathers, is to stop any democratic threats against the plutocratic oligarchy. As for Wikileaks, the powerful disobey the law at least since the Code of Hamurabbi.

    I don’t disagree with your conclusions, but, IMO, you’re too optimistic in your belief that people will “wake up”. These things have been going on for a looooooong time. And still, each new generation continues to think that all problems will be solved if only the other set of rich oligarchs obtains power.

    The people will only stop hanging on to this failed system when it finally comes crashing down. And maybe not even then. I only hope that the new Dark Age is shorter than the last one.

  3. Ian Welsh

    That such things occur throughout history is not in question, that the frequency and the blatancy is increasing is the point. As I like to say “they don’t even pretend any more.”

    It’s not a question of people waking up. It’s a question of what they’ll do when they realize, deep in their bones, that they have nothing to lose.

  4. I knew you would write this. I suspect that it won’t do much t0 solve the underlying contradictions within the Eurozone and only drag out this episode maybe a year or so longer. The “Merkel bet” is that she can prolong this until the next German elections.

  5. Ian Welsh

    Oh, the EZ is still unsustainable. They can accept fiscal union or they can break up. Though I think what the oligarchs want is for people to accept perma-austerity, like the Portuguese. Maybe they’ll win that bet, at least for a time.

  6. FWIW this is Krugman’s take on it, if you haven’t used up your free 10 articles:

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/and-then-what/

    I’m not sure about the “if I lose I win” logic, but there you are.

  7. bob mcmanus

    Greece, Spain, etc interests me because I am not sure we are in a Red Queen’s race. It could be that the techniques and technologies of control, repression, and hegemony will significantly outpace worker’s consciousness and immiseration. I mean they don’t want to make a radical Left (or fractious Right, for that matter) unnecessary or impotent, they want to make one impossible.

    On the horizon am I seeing something between a Brave New World without the distributed affluence and a 1984 with much more fun for the technocrats?

  8. Radical Livre

    “That such things occur throughout history is not in question, that the frequency and the blatancy is increasing is the point. As I like to say “they don’t even pretend any more.””

    Ah, then we are in agreement. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if the increased frequency and blatancy will really make a majority (or at least a large minority) realize they have nothing to lose, though.

  9. bob mcmanus

    …realize they have nothing to lose, though.

    Been a lot work done, including recently at Crooked Timber, to help those who remember 1789 and 1917, say the vanguard or intellectual elite, to believe down to the bottom of their very souls that the only moral ethical response to starvation and violent repression is to cut off your own head.

    I also find even more interesting than the austerities the recent ongoing assimilation of previously reasonably cooperative nationalist oligarchies: Egypt, Libya, Syria, Burma.

    Honestly the successful Global implementation of the Borgdom is amazing.

  10. Honestly the successful Global implementation of the Borgdom is amazing.

    Not that surprising. If you have even a passing personal familiarity with the South Asian professional and/or ruling class, for example, you’d hardly be surprised. Of course, that’s a legacy of British rule, but most of the planet has been in, historical terms, part of one imperial constellation or another. And the elite matches up with these constellations.

  11. Z

    It’s a system so desperate and corrupt that’s it eating its subjects with ever increasing fervor and lust.

    Libertarians … who I agree with on some issues such as civil liberties and foreign policy … have it way wrong when they assume in their incredibly simplistic economic models that wealth is infinite. It is not. Wealth is finite … it’s all derived from the earth … it’s all dependent upon the earth. The pie is only so big and our rulers … through their fiat money graft and their rigged markets … have claimed for themselves such a huge share of it that the current economic system can’t support all its subjects now that the credit bubble has burst.

    The economy and the environment won’t support this many people without a much more socialistic system so our rulers are looking to decrease the amount of people the system is supporting and hence still maintain full claim to their wealth.

    Z

  12. bathcat

    less than 20 years? haha try less than 10.

  13. StewartM

    David Dayden at FDL thinks that the current government will only last a few months before it too collapses:

    “Fear apparently won out over anger tonight. The Greek public, bombarded for weeks with warnings that a Syriza victory would lead to their exit from the euro, opted for New Democracy in greater numbers. I would expect a government to get formed, despite the seeming deadlock at the moment. It’s a victory for the propaganda capabilities of the Eurozone leadership, who already took over the Greek government once, and now have put themselves in position to do it again, this time more indirectly. Syriza will carry on in the opposition, and in truth they may not really want much else at this stage.

    And while the markets may react positively to the news, it’s another in a series of disappointments for the Greek people. Austerity will continue with just a couple tweaks. And as this won’t possibly lead to an improved economic situation, Greece will be back in a similar scenario just months down the road, in all likelihood. The critique was that you might as well rip off the band-aid now and start the painful process of euro exit and devaluation, because at least that would get to the bounce-back sooner. But that will be delayed once more.

    -StewartM

  14. Raz

    The electrical economy wants to happen, but it will not happen on a wide scale until after war and revolution.

    Mm … I would say that a post fossil fuel economy wants to happen. Eventually even young adults whose parents can afford them a doctorate level education (much more those who sell themselves into debt-slavery) may realize that protracting adolescence to age 30 or beyond in the hopes of a white-collar career — which probably won’t exist, grad school or no grad school — is not worth it. May realize that all those “hipster” hobbies like gardening and knitting are actually the seeds of the new economy, one where we can be treated like adults instead of overgrown teenagers.

    But ultimately there will not be much electricity around. The methods of large scale electricity generation that are not direct from fossil fuel — nuclear, wind farms, photovoltaics or mirror fields — are fairly high tech; that is, they nevertheless require a fossil fuel powered industrial base to build and maintain. Which cannot last. So…

    The middle ages were a shit time for philosophy and learning, yes, but for the AVERAGE person things actually got better compared to late antiquity. Agricultural efficiency did not go down, while the rentier population dropped immensely. The plantation slaves of the Empire, supporting vast cities, became serfs supporting a relative handful of knights and clerics.

    Now admittedly, being addicted to the crack cocaine of fossil fuels, humanity will consider any diminished future as cruel and unusual. Surely the old Empire, whose narcotic was slavery and deforestation, felt the same way. “The Roman way of life is not negotiable!” But we may as well become mediaevalists, because something analogous is happening whether we like it or not.

  15. Tom Hickey

    Agree. The old world order is breaking down and either the people nor the emerging nations will accept the new world order ruled by multinational corporations, financiers, and international institutions dominated by Western interests. War and revolution is in the cards.

    In addition, global warming is already tangibly kicking in, as well as the consequences of negative externalities. The policy thus far as been “capitalize gains and socialize losses” and “the solution to pollution is dilution.” That is not working out so well as the planet is reaching the tipping point and is poised to pass the point of no return.

    The collapse of neoliberalism and the debacle of ecological catastrophe are scheduled to hit approximately simultaneously. I would say the the one billion population loss is much to conservative an estimate. Climate scientists are saying that we are on track to halve the world’s population by 2100.

  16. Jumpjet

    One might argue that it is the duty of a concerned citizen to hasten said revolutions, to move the world to the next stage before fossil fuel reserves draw down too much.

  17. Celsius 233

    Ian, you’re far more optimistic than I; I just can’t wrap my mind around us humans (first world) doing anything. We’re just too damn scared of…the unknown.
    Too comfortable for too long and took eye off the ball. Denial, the shiny, the dream, the everything.
    Swallowed hook, line, and sinker in all their iterations.
    Time to move on to whatever future we’re forming for our spawn. The only problem I see is; we have no idea what that future looks like. Really! We don’t.

  18. S Brennan

    Two Points:

    1] Looking at the electoral map, Crete should secede from Greece [it has been an independent state before]. Greece could find this useful as China found Hong Kong.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OzeS-6tqPLM/T984xwN0wVI/AAAAAAAAWc4/e6kZZkls2C8/s1600/greekelectionfinal.PNG

    2] “The electrical economy wants to happen” I agree 100%. With Thorium Reactors [please read up about this technology…before REACTING] we COULD reduce our carbon footprint to the size of aviation [9-12%], lubrication [1%] and synthetic materials [6%]…roughly, an 85% reduction, or factor of 5 improvement. Ain’t gonna happen…we will kill ourselves first…but we could.

  19. The Tragically Flip

    I think the elites cannot stop themselves even if they realize what they’re doing is likely to be suicidal. They need to keep taking ever more to sustain the system they have amonst themselves, unless they manage to purge large portions of the elite out of elite status in some way, but I don’t see how they’ll do that without a major fracture and conflict amonst themselves (almost certainly violent).

    Even if some members of the elite realize the destructive course they’re on, they can’t leap from the tiger’s back as it will eat them too. The only way you get subjected to normal criminal law as a member of the elite is to piss off the elite. Anyone who breaks ranks will find themselves prosecuted for insider trading, election law irregularities or something else they normally get away with.

  20. Mary Mac

    The Tragically Flip,

    The elites will most certainly begin to eat their own. It is in their nature. They can’t help it.

  21. The Tragically Flip

    Mary Mac, yeah, predators will eat smaller and weaker predators, but usually only when they run out of juicy relatively defenceless herbavoires to hunt.

    The bottom nine-tenths of the top 1% are fucked too, they just don’t know it yet, because they haven’t come up on the menu.

  22. Mary Mac

    Cause the bottom nine-tenths of the top 1% are only there serve the very, very top. Doctors, lawyers, etc. are not real royalty. They are simply highly paid help. I wonder where Obama falls on the scale of royalty versus help.

  23. I would argue that the Global Revolution is already here. It even has its own internet teevee channel, so it’s got to be real.

    We may mock and disparage or we may celebrate and support the various revolutionary actions around the world, but regardless of how we feel about them, they are happening and more importantly, they are continuing regardless of either repression or mockery. This Revolution is not like any in the past.

    It’s cryingly obvious that elections are not the answer. They’ll continue, of course, but they will have less and less relevance as captured governments continue to serve only their owners and sponsors and ignore the public interest and popular will.

    The People and governments have had a divorce in a manner of speaking: irreconcilable differences among other causes.

  24. S Brennan

    “I wonder where Obama falls on the scale of royalty versus help.”

    In 2008 Obama was a very valuable servant…more than anybody he deserves all the credit for stopping reform in its tracks and maintaining Bush’s policies.

    But now?

    In 2012 Obama is still eager to have the serfs water-boarded, killed if necessary, whatever it takes to please his superiors. If loyalty mattered to his masters, his position as a minion would be secure. But in 2012, nobody is talking reform, Obama, ever the over achieving gofer, has already enshrined in law Bush’s notorious acts. So while Obama will always be loyal to wealth, hehas already done what he was sent do…really, he serves no useful earthly purpose anymore…unless he’s used one more time…as a patsy for the economic mess.

    Romney in 2012? Doesn’t like war, Not as reliable as Obama…questions, questions…how to decide who should win? Well the important take away is…the people have to choose between a smooth talking, more effective evil and a guy who has evil in his heart, but who’s execution has been…how shall we say…sloppy.

    On the other hand, Obama has promised to turn Social Security into a private annuity plan…if only the Supremes will do their bit and not overturn government mandated purchase of private health insurance, then…then we can destroy SSI. Decisions…Decisions.

  25. S Brennan

    On that subject, from yesterday’s Memorandum links:

    Roberto Unger, Obama’s Former Harvard Law School Professor, Says that Obama must lose the election in order for “the voice of democratic prophecy to speak once again in American life.” He acknowledged that if a Republican wins the presidency, “there will be a cost … in judicial and administrative appointments.” But he said that “the risk of military adventurism” would be no worse under a Republican than under Obama, and that “the Democratic Party proposes no new direction.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/16/roberto-unger-obama_n_1602812.html

  26. Morocco Bama

    This is not a reaction. It is fact. Thorium is not a panacea, nor a suitable substitute to uranium.

    http://nuclearfreeplanet.org/thorium-fuel-no-panacea-for-nuclear-power.html

  27. Z

    In regards to representing the interests of our rulers, it’s not just the case of what Obama’s and Romney’s intentions are … which are very similar … it’s also on how well they can sell it. With Obama there would be a lot less resistance to those policies becoz the demozombie “liberals” … as well as the blacks … back damn near everything that Obama does no matter how much it is against their interests and their so-called principles. Romney won’t get that latitude … he doesn’t sell as well, is not as smooth and the aforementioned demo-zombie sellouts and blacks won’t support … and may actively protest … the same policies they would clapping for and/or defending if Obama was pushing them.

    If our rulers actually want and succeed in getting Romney elected, they’ll end up regretting their hubris. Obama is the master frog boiler … Romney doesn’t have the dexterity nor the credibility with the people that are getting boiled.

    Z

  28. Morocco Bama

    Z, it’s a foregone conclusion. Obama is the next president…..for the very reasons you stated. Romney’s just theatrical juxtaposition. Romney’s got as much sex-appeal as a Mondale or a Dukakis or a Bush, Sr…..meaning he’s bland…like milk toast.

    FYI, I’m opposed to all forms of Nuclear Power, thorium, or otherwise, and renewables cannot sustain growth, nor current population levels. This System has proven, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that it cannot be trusted with fire, so to support yet another variation of that is insane. The only way forward is to change our way of life so thoroughly that it is unrecognizable from its previous self. The only thing that will bring that about will be devastating calamity, I’m afraid. It’s a classic double-bind.

  29. Z

    Romney is a Dole-like candidate … fodder thrown at the feet of a democrat that our rulers want to keep IMO. But this isn’t 1996, the economy is in bad shape so the outcome is more in doubt though I can’t imagine Romney holding up well to the heightened scrutiny he’ll encounter over the next 4+ months.

    Z

  30. John B.

    Z, here’s a hint: there is no such thing as “the blacks”.

    Love, John B.

  31. Z

    Oh, I’m so sorry John B. … that was so racist of me. Here you go: African-Americans. Now does that feel better for you? Fuck …

    Z

  32. Pepe

    @Z

    You should have omitted the definite article: s/b the Blacks, or, referred to the “Black vote”. “The Blacks” is a loaded phrase.

    And of course, recognizing that while he enjoys overwhelming support among African Americans, their support for Obama is not universal – see The Black Agenda Report.

  33. Pepe

    hrm – my strike tag didn’t work. s/b “Blacks”

  34. groo

    friends,

    I have been pondering the issue for more than 10years now, as presumably a lot of You did also.

    Ian’s theme:

    “Greek election consequences AND THE SHAPE OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD’S FUTURE”

    Have been going through all the mess:
    Limits to Growth, Jay Hanson (dieoff), Herman Daly (steady state economy), the oildrum (from Stewart Staniford to Tom Murphy), JM Greer etc.

    Pondering all the options from the Olduvai Cliff to slow descent (JMG).

    Hanson being one of the harshest (and most intelligent) critics of the human condition I ever encountered.

    —————
    But there is another issue, which is LENR.
    And do’nt kill me too early as being completely deluded!

    LENR is a real effect, with lots of hot air, to be sure.

    Apart from the vortex-l-list —
    see eg http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l@eskimo.com/index.html ,
    see eg Peter Gluck, who is a chemical engineer from Romania in his early 70s and is a humanist at heart, who maintains the blog ‘egoout’: http://egooutpeters.blogspot.de/ .

    The core of the message is, that there is an energy-source in the making, which basically cures all our CURRENT energy-woes.

    Now believe that or not, but if one disbelieves the evidence, I accuse him of being a fool, perferring a doomsday-scenario without considering the evidence to contrary.
    This is not an easy endeavor, and even an associate Professor of Physics falls prey to this possible self-deception.
    http://www.energybulletin.net/authors/Tom+Murphy
    So even the hard-core scientist is not immune to big-time errors.

    As a grim pessimist and fundamental critic of the human condition, I of course try to deconstruct this scenario from the philosophical side, which I occasionally do at vortex (guess my name, it is easy), but agree from the scientific side, as someone holding a fringe opinion wrt several sorts of aspects -besides being a hopefully level-headed father of a decent son-.

    Message:
    Be careful expecting doomsday.
    You might be in for an unpleasant (from a pessimist POV) surprise!

    BTW, this has nothing to do with we all being the lucky winners of a jackpot.
    Which it is of course not!
    We would be poor souls with zero advance, without us working on our inner condition, if we just mindlessly cashed in.

  35. Z

    Pepe,

    Point taken. No disrespect was meant by the term … and yes, I do know of the Black Agenda Report and of course I realize that not everyone of the millions of African-Americans in the U.S. think exactly the same as anyone of any modicum of intelligence knows.

    Anyway, before we go any further into pedantic semantic bullshit, if it offends anyone … or misleads them … what I truly meant when I used the term “the blacks” was “the majority of the African-American community”.

    Z

  36. Morocco Bama

    Shouldn’t that be the African-American Agenda Report? I have to laugh at that title, though. There’s a strong message of solidarity across racial, cultural and class lines. Yet another special interest concern, regardless of how poignant their criticism of the status quo is. Whites not included, nor welcome.

  37. Morocco Bama

    Z, there is no need for you to explain yourself. Screw the politically correct police. When it comes to voting, Black people, with the exception of a small percentage, vote as one, and therefore, can be described as a single group with one term. If a blog devoted to so-called “African-American” political interests can call itself “Black”, then you can call it “Black” too. The irony is, if Pepe talked like that at BAR, they’d ride his politically correct ass right out of the comment section. I respect that about that blog. They can smell hypocritical “Liberals” (redundant, I know) a mile a way, and they give them hell when they show up in the comment section.

  38. Pepe

    You should read it before you criticize solely based on its title.

  39. Pepe

    I assumed Z’s use of the phrase “the Blacks” was innocent, and was merely pointing out that the phrase is loaded. I am of the opinion that Black and African American are interchangeable terms, and use them as such.

    Also @MB – fuck you, you fucking fuck.

  40. Chaz

    “20 years to fully convulse” I think is rather optimistic. Personally I think they will do just enough each time to drag it out a little longer and by that stag we will all be so immune to poverty and death it sadly wont be such a big deal.

  41. Morocco Bama

    Also @MB – fuck you, you fucking fuck.

    That’s a loaded term. It would be much more innocuous, and politically correct, to say “intercourse you, you Intercoursing Intercourse.”

    Maybe you should follow your own advice….but it’s alright, I know you meant it innocently enough.

  42. Jumpjet

    Groo, I’m generally pretty optimistic about our energy future, but even I’m not holding my breath for fusion, hot or cold. If it worked I’d be ecstatic, but scientists have been beating their heads against the brick wall for at least 50 years now, to no avail.

  43. amspirnational

    Needed. A Jack London movement. Before the demographics change, just a little more, and
    it would be designated “special interest” too.

  44. Morocco Bama

    Or better yet, how about the White Agenda Report….or WAR for short? The National Review or The Nation could rename itself this.

  45. S Brennan

    Good for you MB, a perfectly fact free response wrapped in certainty, just what I anticipated some idiot would do…good for you for stepping up to the plate. I knew I could count on the scientifically illiterate to establish the absolute facts. Well, at least MB, your argument dovetails nicely with the oil industry, who also don’t want the US to invest in Thorium research, or move to an electric future. It’s really sad all the conversations you set out to destroy.

    Briefly, the NuclearFreePlanet.org thorium-fuel-no-panacea-for-nuclear-power link has a lot of utter nonsense, misleading extrapolation and lies…it’s taken from Institute for Energy and Environmental Research and Physicians for Social Responsibility…all antinuclear groups from there inception. I’m not sure if most of Ian’s readers idea of research is to go to the Catholic Church for Birth control information, or to the Flat Earth Society for orbital trajectories.

    There’s too much utter nonsense and lies in the first three paragraphs to even start with….really, just too many misrepresentations to even bother…and it just gets worse. The pictures of Hiroshima and Nagasaki…emotion parading as science..sophomoric drivel all meant to stop intelligent discussion and turn every conversation into tribal affirmation.

    I am not against Solar and Wind, but both require HUGE AMOUNTS OF dedicated REAL ESTATE and that is capitol intensive, but energy dilute. As long as people think Solar and Wind will provide industrial scale electricity…China will keep burning coal, spreading more radiation in one 6 month period than all Nuclear sources combined have done since the dawn of the nuclear age, with the added benefit of being responsible for more than 96% of world wide mercury residue. Just say Solar and Wind ONLY over and over and we will stay right where we are…on a collision course with environmental catastrophe. Just imagine how superior folks will feel knowing you blocked timely introduction of doable technology for an elitist illusion that can not work with the worlds PRESENT population and arable land.

    I would put multiple links but that just puts my comments in limbo…for a more honest review of Thorium, I suggest people go here:

    http://www.google.com/search?q=Thorium%20reactors&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&source=hp&channel=np

    I do want to re-address two pernicious lies in the MB link, a Thorium reactor was already built and was still working well when they shut it down at the end of the 60’s and Thorium can’t be used to make weapons…that’s why the program was canceled…like I say, reading the link is like going to the Catholic Church for birth control info.

    Essentially, Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor offers, 1/500 the amount of nuclear waste, 500 year half life, a 50,000 year fuel supply, can be used to render nuclear waste harmless, doesn’t require nuclear arms making equipment, if it gets too hot..the chain reaction shuts down, hence it can’t meltdown, can be built small enough to be put on portable, hardened, survivable platforms [thinking earthquake, tsunami here], does not require nuclear arms technology…etcetera…etcetera…etcetera.

  46. Morocco Bama

    a 50,000 year fuel supply

    Sweet Mother of Jesus, if you’re going to shill for the Nuclear Industry, at least demand some remuneration for your services. If you are being paid, please forgive me assuming you’re not.

    You have to be joking with this comment, right? Right? Considering our current System, and how it treats commodities as investments, what incentive would there be for investors to invest in a commodity that is so ubiquitous with an endless supply? There would be no incentive. The Commodity Regimes, in this case the Mining Companies, are not going to waste their time with Thorium unless they know they can make it scarce at a later date and drive the price up……..a later date, when unwitting shills like yourself are dead and gone and no longer available to slap around for selling us a load of horseshit, once again. Not to mention, even at face value, nothing that humans become interested in lately will last anywhere near a fifty thousand years. That’s absurd. Review this before telling us Santa Claus is coming to town:

    http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/

    Also, your Thorium solution plays, once again, into the hands of the Central Planners. It’s a power source that will be tightly controlled by an Elite group of insiders who answer to the Plutocrats, and no one else. It’s it direct opposition to the direction we should be taking, which is decentralization and diversification.

  47. S Brennan

    Being in a charitable mood, I’ll say that link is an example of the literary device Non sequitur. The post itself is internally conflicted and unworthy of my time.

    Here’s a link for folks who are more interested in real solutions than in posts that seek auto-stimulation through “I’m the smartest guy in the room” wankery.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbyr7jZOllI

    My link talks about the politics/history of how we got to the dead end street of our current Nuclear paradigm. And it shows conclusively, that there was/is not a monolithic nuclear industry as the poster above states in no uncertain terms.

    The bad news; A wrong turn was taken that led to our problems.

    The good news; We can go back and fix it and then move forward into a better world.

  48. Bernard

    the pedantic bs back and forth here is proof of the “Us vs.Them” civil war. so petty and so useless, except for all the one upman ship involved.

    liberals or whatever the “correct” name for these “alpha” male behavior is helping the Elites, not us who read this blog. typical though. it shows how Divide and Conquer works.

    i normally don’t bother to comment about such internecine warfare, it does get in the way of the conversation, or it this warfare the conversation.

    the Elites will drag this “stage” out as long as possible. until some loony,like Netanyahu, for example, decides to get his “dig” in while he can. and upset the carefully designed game of Thrones.

    Napoleon leading up to Waterloo, but how long before. if you expect the White Southern Americans to ever question Big Daddy/Republican/Elite behavior, then i would expect the decline will be a long and carefully crafted decline.

    the only variables will be the extent/speed of climate change, vs higher food prices. that’s the Elites measure of success, how long they can keep the Ponzi scheme going.

    if i could only afford to move, but us poor folk have to continue to work. and we poor are expendable for the time being, at least. having to watch the Liberals fight amongst themselves over the “correct” words to fling at the “Elites” is so tiresome and part of the problem.

    so please, people, focus your “stuff” at the “right” Right group. divide and conquer has given us the Lord of the Flies Society, and your fighting is part of that type of “anti-society” behavior.

    i always thought it was to work for all of us, since we are all owners and members of the Earth. being misdirected in our focus, scattering our energy doesn’t help.

  49. General Washington

    Ian, I’m afraid I can’t take quite as optimistic a view as you have.

    To wit:

    It’s damn near high time for the next Dark Ages, and by Ged, we’re going to have a lot of fun losing about 2 billion people (at today’s global pop) on the way there!

    Or, in a slightly less flippant mood, there will be no revival.

    It’s about that time in historical development when the oligarchs and their flappers decide to double-down on the global grab in a last gasp at maintaining a declining level of opulence.

    In the meantime, the already bare subsistence level existence enjoyed by the majority of one portion of the “developed world” (the United States) will continue to create the vacuum necessary for the oligarchs to enjoy a safe home base – aside from London (where I’m not entirely confident they can pull it off) – from which to run this Machiavellian comedy show for several decades to come.

    (In other words, I expect the collapse to be well after we’re dead.)

    Which doesn’t make me any more sanguine about the resource poor world we’re leaving behind for some future generation to try and drag themselves up from a few centuries or more hence…

  50. General Washington

    Oh, and as an addendum to the previous (damn it all, I think too fast for my fingers), I would love a short summary of what leads your view above to differ so markedly from mine.

    Not specifics (otherwise known as “accounting errors”), but generalities that you covered, and I’ve likely missed over the years.

  51. Now believe that or not, but if one disbelieves the evidence, I accuse him of being a fool, perferring a doomsday-scenario without considering the evidence to contrary.
    This is not an easy endeavor, and even an associate Professor of Physics falls prey to this possible self-deception.
    http://www.energybulletin.net/authors/Tom+Murphy
    So even the hard-core scientist is not immune to big-time errors.

    groo, I’m asking for some clarification here.

    From what I gather, Murphy is not contesting the possibility of viable energy sources – even on a scale comparable to our fossil-fuel-extravaganza of today – but is instead challenging the idea of infinite growth on a finite planet, ultimately from a thermodynamic perspective.

    While I do not prefer a doomsday scenario, I am indeed one whom you might consider a “fool,” in that I am skeptical of the likelihood of technological relief for our energy problems, be it Thorium or other innovations, spoken and perhaps as yet unspoken. However, my objection here is more rooted in the observation that such techno-speculation comes off all-too-easily as a psychological panacea for our challenges (and as such should be viewed with perhaps greater scrutiny,) than it is in objective fact. So, I am willing to provisionally suspend my skepticism, but I am still left with what is, to me, the inescapable conclusion that continued access to “cheap” energy is a guaranteed death-warrant in its own right, given the historical demonstration of what our appetites become in such a “nutrition rich petri dish.”

    Murphy’s “boiling” of the Earth is an apt metaphor.

    It is my contention, and the contention of most energy-skeptics, that we do humanity a far greater service in addressing its appetite-problem than enabling energy inputs.

    I think that recognizing a finite planet is a maturity thing.

  52. amspirnational

    Bernard,

    I would expect “White Southern Americans” to question the Big Daddy/Republican/Elite behavior if the Elite’s “left” party, lol, hadn’t also betrayed them, and as soon as a Jack London movement with skilled leadership, always essential, develops-and not until or unless.

  53. S Brennan

    “It is my contention, and the contention of most energy-skeptics, that we do humanity a far greater service in addressing its appetite-problem than enabling energy inputs.”

    Okay, now we know your “contention”.

    How do you plan to tell people [most of whom have far less than you] to ‘tighten their belts”? Assuming you come up with the requisite billions to get your message out in an attempt to turn back 5,000 years of human history…and…if history is prologue, they will give you the finger for your efforts…what’s plan B?

    [crickets]

    C’mon, contentions are for the high and mighty, let’s hear a plan that has a touch of reality.

  54. Well, @S Brennan, I suppose I should’ve said “counter-contention,” since I was responding to groo’s “contention” that those of us that don’t buy into techno-salvation are fools (aside to @groo – my comments here are directed towards the rather hostile tone that @S Brennan has taken, certainly not as part of the conversation I am attempting to initiate with you, my friend.)

    How do you plan to tell people [most of whom have far less than you] to ‘tighten their belts”? Assuming you come up with the requisite billions to get your message out in an attempt to turn back 5,000 years of human history…and…if history is prologue, they will give you the finger for your efforts…what’s plan B?

    [crickets]

    C’mon, contentions are for the high and mighty, let’s hear a plan that has a touch of reality.

    Your “[crickets]” are a tad premature, don’t you think? Talk about high and mighty.

    I have no interest in telling people anything, and I don’t engage in the folly of “plans.” It is, further, my contention (since you’ve indicated a fondness for the term) that reality will settle the matter. I’ve got no problem with being wrong – if reality turns out to be the infinitely abundant white-hole extravaganza of universal cornucopia that we privileged Westerners like to believe it to be, well, none will be happier than I.

    But, since I am inclined to engage in a level of cognition more challenging than that of the wishful variety, I see things differently and I feel comfortable in sharing my vision with my intelligent friends here on Ian’s thread… indeed, to freely contend to my heart’s content.

    I think that turning back the pathetically tiny sliver of 5,000 years of wrongheaded human history is a rather trivial task for an enraged planet, and I’m certain that she needs no help from the likes of me.

    Finally: I rarely respond to ad hominem attacks as I find doing so generally only encourages more of the same, but you’ve got my dander up with some of your presumptuous “contentions.” You have no idea how much I “have” (nothing), or how committed to poverty I am. And I don’t know what you mean by “belt-tightening,” either, since it is the extravagance of typical middle-class Western lifestyle vis. the majority of the world that I find objectionable. If that is “belt-tightening” to you, sir, well, then it is the likes of you are most likely to be instructed on “reality” in short order.

  55. Morocco Bama

    A great campaign slogan for the next president:

    A Liquid Thorium Reactor in every pot.

    Meth’s not a bad thing…….they’re just not making it right. The answer to the Meth epidemic is to make more of it….stronger and better with less side effects.

  56. S Brennan

    I’m sure this is true:

    “…if reality turns out to be the infinitely abundant white-hole extravaganza of universal cornucopia that we privileged Westerners like to believe it to be, well, none will be happier than I…”

    but don’t you think you ought to make an effort in order to enjoy the reward?

    …and no I’m not hostile to you, you post some good stuff…you are not like MB who has always gotten off on starting crap as he did here.

    I’m saying, if the end is coming…well, life’s like that, but I want to go down giving my personal best, not partying like it’s 1999, or chasing butterfly fantasies…I do get annoyed by the butterfly crowd more than the doom/party crowd, solar, in a few years will be tangent to it’s theoretical max and wind has known limits, we can plot the area needed and where the area has to be to transmit power we don’t have enough area…or capitol.

    Watch the video I provided. The “all nukes are same”, “all nukes are equally as evil” crowd are modern day Luddites….not that I think MB believes in any of it, he’s here to blur other peoples words to make himself sound better…to himself…yawn.

  57. Morocco Bama

    S Brennan, you’re the one who is out of step here, not me. The message of Ian’s post is extremely dire, and you swoop in and tell us all our troubles can be cured with Thorium. I call bullshit on that and you get your panties in a wad. How is posting a youtube of a presentation given by a couple of commodity hucksters doing “your personal best?”

  58. Thanks, @S Brennan, I retract my claws. Sorry for losing my temper for a moment.

    Of course I watched your video (and explored @groo’s links as well.) While I have some opinion on the matter, I’m not a physicist and for the purpose of discussions like these, I remain agnostic regarding nuclear power – I repeat, for the purpose of discussion.

    Just to be clear, I don’t think “the end” is coming because of an energy crunch. I just think we’re going to hit some hard limits and will have to adapt. Personally, I think we’re going to be better off – as things currently stand, I think we’ve arranged ourselves one hellish dystopia.

    It follows, I think, that if we *don’t* have an energy crunch, then something very surely resembling “the end” is in the cards. IMO.

    As regards @MB (my apologies for speaking of you in the third person while you’re in the room, MB) – he may be quick to get the “red-ass” sometimes (and to give it), but I’m not inclined to question the sincerity of his opinions.

    And the Luddites were right all along, BTW.

    Cheers!

  59. S Brennan

    Petro,

    You are correct in asserting Luddites were using “collective bargaining by riot” and as legitimate as any Robin Hood. However, I was using it in the rhetorical pejorative definition [2], not the social movement itself [1].

    Lud·dite
    1. Any of a group of British workers who between 1811 and 1816 rioted and destroyed laborsaving textile machinery in the belief that such machinery would diminish employment.
    2. One who opposes technical or technological change.

    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Luddite

  60. Definition [2] was a pejorative in the 20th Century. With today’s hindsight, I’m not so sure that’s true anymore… 🙂

  61. Glen

    I’m glad you think revolution/reform is possible. I think you’re being optimistic. I’m looking forward to a Blade Runner society without any of the cool technology. Sort of a Dark Age feudal reign by corporate masters.

  62. I don’t believe I’ve seen Ian accused of being an optimist as much as here, in this thread… 🙂

    What say you, Ian?

  63. Ghostwheel

    Ideally thorium—being poisonous but less poisonous than uranium—could be used as a “transition” power source, helping us carefully de-urbanize and move slowly to a more sustainable, low-entropy, low-population society.

    Except in reality it would simply fuel mankind’s techophilia and lead to more growth and consumption until even thorium’s benefits were exhausted.

    The problem would seem to be outdated memes as much as it is thermodynamics and limited resources. I wish I knew how to fight a meme without feeling like Don Quixote….

  64. Formerly T-Bear

    From the desks of Scientific American:

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return&WT.mc_id=SA_20120616

    Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
    Although there is an urban legend that the world will end this year based on a misinterpretation of the Mayan calendar, some researchers think a 40-year-old computer program that predicts a collapse of socioeconomic order and massive drop in human population in this century may be on target
    By Madhusree Mukerjee | May 23, 2012 |

    More kindling for that final party “On the Beach”. This is looking more and more like the collapse of complexity being operated by the increasingly ill-educated in a system of decreasing integrity using language increasingly divorced from meaning. One key statement from this offering is:

    Whereas in 1972 humans were using 85 percent of the regenerative capacity of the biosphere to support economic activities such as growing food, producing goods and assimilating pollutants, the figure is now at 150 percent—and growing.

    Wile E. Coyote oh so clever, whatcha gonna do when the cliff runs out?

  65. Morocco Bama

    In regards to “doing your personal best,” I’ve been giving that phrase a good deal of thought the last couple of days, and I’ve arrived at the following. Please, please, please, I implore you, do not do your personal best, because all too often, in this System, doing your personal best unfortunately amounts to feeding this beast with ever greater efficiency and effectiveness. The Thorium push is a prime example…..it perpetuates the myth. I can’t tell you how many National Merit Scholars I’ve worked with over the years, and I can’t help thinking of them with lament…..and disgust. All of that potential turned to so much mush, yet wrapped in the pretty package of “doing your personal best.” They amount to nothing more than glorified cogs in this machinery of death and destruction that’s slouching its way towards Bethlehem.

  66. Morocco Bama

    Indeed, FTB. For those who still have ears and know how to use them, the meep, meep is loud and clear.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiNoAFMmnwE

  67. Morocco Bama

    Spot on documentary here….allegedly made by North Korea. Maybe I’ll move to the DPRK…..and lose that last ten pounds. Seriously, it couldn’t be more accurate, even if it is ironic.

    Part 1

    Part 2

    There is a total of 10 parts….the rest of which can be found at the link for Parts 1 & 2 above.

  68. On a lighter note (since you brought up N. Korea, MB – thanks, will watch – plus it tangentially aligns with the technophiliac (word?) flavor of the thread):

    Kim Jong Il Announces Plan To Bring Moon To North Korea

  69. @MB – It looks as though the poster of that documentary is still vetting parts 5-10, yes? They don’t seem to be all up yet.

    (His FB page)

  70. groo

    Petro,

    …groo, I’m asking for some clarification here.
    From what I gather, Murphy is not contesting the possibility of viable energy sources – even on a scale comparable to our fossil-fuel-extravaganza of today – but is instead challenging the idea of infinite growth on a finite planet, ultimately from a thermodynamic perspective.

    Murphy is an insightful physicist, no doubt, as Ugo Bardi and Stewart Staniford, JM Greer on his own ground, and quite some others, Forrester/Meadows in LTG I,II, III, all from their perspective, whom I all highly value.

    Allow me to answer in two separate postings.

    I.
    perils of closed belief-systems as self-serving self-deceptions.

    I think we all know that, because we see that in our politicians all the time.
    With scientists and the scientifically minded it is not so clear.

    Murphy makes flawless calculations, wrt energy, but for some reason he refuses to acknowledge eg the potential of MARITIME seaweed-algae for energy use, which is completely different from land-based algae.
    see eg here.
    http://earthsky.org/human-world/a-breakthrough-in-making-biofuel-from-seaweed

    Another point is eg Murphy’s quite ignorant assessment of potential energy storage.
    One does not store energy in batteries, which would be quite absurd, but in EXISTING methane-gas pipelines and storage-containers. there is a longish German (sorry) study, how this can be done, to store solar and wind in existing methane-gas -infrastructure.

    Now those guys are no idiots, beware!

    But they have their blind spots, which I try to avoid.

    The reason is, that IF You once posited yourself in the net as having a firm opinion, you have a hard time to reconsider central aspects of your belief system.

    In that, we possibly are not much different from our everyday politician, minus ego-issues and corruptibility, which we do not suffer from.

    The second aspect is the potential impact of LENR itself on society and our future as a society.

  71. John Puma

    To groo:

    Would you care to outline the study that explains how “to store solar and wind in existing methane-gas-infrastructure”?

  72. Morocco Bama

    Petro, yeah, Parts 5-10 are still in process. You have to admit, so far, it’s spot on. Powerful stuff. A comprehensive indictment.

  73. groo

    @Petro,

    II
    The second aspect.

    Now imagine those two options:

    i) seaweed could fuel our future ON THE LEVEL we currently have.
    ii) LENR could fuel our future with 1000-1mio that we currently have.
    Mindboggling.

    As an environmentalist by heart I am even suspicious wrt (i), which implicitly suggests something like maintaining the status quo, which is pathological per se:
    We have to tinker with the financial system, throw the (financial) bums out, and live within our collective material means.
    (ii) opens up lots of opportunities, not really interstellar space-travel, but colonizing Mars etc being a ‘real’ option.
    Whether this is nonsensical in itself, is another question.

    BOTH options seem to generate a deepseated cognitive dissonance amongst those trying to get accustomed to a good retreat. Eg JM Greer, one of my spiritual heroes, including my humble self.

    but this should not hinder us to exclude by definition something like LENR, which is to me as an engineer/scientist/philosopher at heart something with HIGH probability.
    How it plays out, in what timeframe and what circumstances, I do not know.

    To refuse this possibility per definition or learned methods is what I term foolish.
    Ignorance on shaky ground.

    There is a permeating term in the LENR crowd:
    ‘Pathological skeptizism’.
    Where does it begin/end?
    It is late in the night,when I’m thinking/writing about that.
    Not to drown in doubt the next day, or having a pathologically firm position on this or that, but to keep my internal watchman alert.

    Maybe I should challenge Murphy and Bardi on their respective blogs.

    To be clear:
    I think it was Luther who said in one of his clearer moments:
    “was hülfe es Dir, wenn Du die ganze Welt gewönnest, und doch dadurch Schaden an Deiner Seele erlittest”

    “What would it help You, if You won the world, but damaged your soul because of that.”

    Because of statements like that I do not write off the believers altogether.
    Some of them have a point.

  74. groo

    III
    addendum:

    The precautionary principle states, that, as a collective, we should choose the path of minimal risk.

    This is counter to majority rule, which states that the ‘majority’ determines the path of the future.

    Because the future is unknown, and the risks are uncertain, the majority-rule is inadequate in a lot of cases.

    Any sensible/sane society adjusts the rule to the degree of DANGER.
    The complement is the degree of -ahem- ‘unreasonable HOPE’.
    Any society relying on u.H. is doomed in the log term at latest.

    How do our politicians perform wrt that?
    Ahem- Well.

    Hope and fear/danger are extremely asymmetric, or should be, more than even Kahneman envisioned on the individual level wrt risk-avoidance.

  75. Ian Welsh

    Please keep down the personal insults. James Lovelock, amongst others, thinks that nuclear power may be required as a transition and as the only way to avoid climate armaggedon. The main issue with some new form of nuclear is the same as with everything else, the current generation can’t run anything, and the consequences of blowing nuclear, so to speak, are severe. What happened in Japan was 100% reliable and there are warnings going back to the 80s about it and how to fix it. A choice was made to risk a meltdown.

  76. @groo –

    Thanks for your thoughtful response, and may I say that it is a pleasure to engage in these discussions with you.

    And, much as I dislike the hi-jacking of threads on tangents such as these, I think that the broader participation of many of the commentors here on the subject have in fact turned this into an energy thread. With Ian’s continuing indulgence, I continue…

    You have not engaged my central contention, which I will restate: We have not demonstrated, as a collective, the maturity that is increasingly clear is necessary for us to responsibly utilize the only infinitely renewable energy resource that is at our disposal, without bringing about our own end.

    I am, of course, speaking of the sun, which for all practical purposes is, blessedly, an infinite source of energy (i.e., “peak sunlight” will come with or without our exploitation, and is far enough into the future that we can dispense with the guilt over “future generations.”) To a lesser extent, one can include geothermal in this category, although a review of current implementation of geothermal extraction reveals a host of environmental issues that most certainly overwhelm its benefits.

    I mention this because bio-fuels (a category in which algea-seaweed – maritime or otherwise – falls) are merely a technique for capturing and redirecting solar energy. They are, at the end of it, in the same category as solar panels.

    I’m sure that, at least on a theoretical level, calculations could be made regarding just how much sunlight could be diverted from its “natural” tasks (as an engine for the churning global weather system, as the sole input into an otherwise closed system for the nourishment of life, etc. – if there is an etc.) to our more narcissistic uses in transportation, maintaining artificial environments for habitation in otherwise inappropriate locations on the globe, and ensuring access to strawberries in the dead of winter, but at the end of the day we would need to reckon with that fixed amount of input for whatever population-level is indicated.

    That’s the wall of which I speak.

    End of Part I…

  77. Part II:

    The other part of this is the recognition that the fact that what could be reasonably looked at as “excess” solar energy (and we do receive that as well), is systematically radiated outwards into space, or safely interred into the ground (in what eventually becomes coal & oil) in order to somewhat miraculously prevent our planet from turning into Venus and becoming merely a fascinating chemical soup, devoid of life.

    Murphy’s point – and I take it well – is that any “excess” energy which is unlocked for use will have thermodynamic output as per the laws of entropy, with undesirable results. The perfectly apt metaphor is what is happening to us right now due to our incontinent disinterment of “ancient sunlight” of the last 300 years, thus upsetting the fine intentions of millions of years of work done by mostly plants here on Earth.

    Unlocking potential nuclear energy can only be seen as an exacerbation of this problem! This is why I have a general “Are you kidding me?!” reaction to nuclear-based fuels – we can’t even handle over-usage of our solar input, and we’re contemplating introducing that source of heat as well?

    I understand your arguments regarding close-mindedness, and this hits home to me, and that is why I go off and bother to re-read and re-examine the case whenever it comes up – as I have here with the links provided by you & @S Brennan. For personal reasons, I don’t want to fall victim to any “foolish consistencies.”

    But I keep butting up against the laws of physics. They are not laws by decree, but laws by brick-wall-in-your-face. They don’t seem willing to negotiate.

    As for Mars – and I admit that perhaps this falls into a bit of spiritual dogmatism – but I can’t countenance expanding out into other planets (leaving aside the sheer ridiculousness of seeking refuge on barren wastelands with hostility issues that rival anything we see here on our home planet) if we can’t work out a sustainable relationship with this one.

    But that last is a minor side issue that will probably remain moot for the foreseeable future…

  78. @MB –

    Yes, Glorious Leader has put together a very credible Chomsky-esque critique of consent-manufacturing. It’s notable and noteworthy that there are those of us on this side of the despotic divide who have made, and continue to make those points.

    I’m not of a patriotic bent, but I do bristle when I hear the likes of GL’s minions criticizing the West. But, in all fairness, we pretty much handed them those talking points.

    It’s mitigated, however, by the high comedy of their “glorious enlighted leader” rhetoric. You just can’t write better parody than that.

  79. Morocco Bama

    James Lovelock, amongst others, thinks that nuclear power may be required as a transition and as the only way to avoid climate armaggedon.

    I like some of Lovelock’s ideas, namely the Gaia concept, but he’s claimed in the past that we’re already doomed, and yet now he’s promoting Nuclear as a transition. So, which is it? Are we doomed, or not? Also, a transition to what, may I ask? Do any of us here really believe that those who have there hands on power are going to relinquish it readily? Hardly, they are only going to double down when the going gets tough….as we see them doing now. We will have to pry it from their cold dead hands……but there is no we, as teh North Korean documentary so aptly points out.

  80. Morocco Bama

    Lovelock also believes Fracking is the way to go.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/06/16/james-lovelock-says-we-should-be-fracking-for-gas/

    Gas is almost a give-away in the US at the moment. They’ve gone for fracking in a big way. Let’s be pragmatic and sensible and get Britain to switch everything to methane. We should be going mad on it.

  81. Morocco Bama

    It’s mitigated, however, by the high comedy of their “glorious enlighted leader” rhetoric. You just can’t write better parody than that.

    Yeah, it’s one of the reasons I posted it…because of the irony…because irony is one of the few pleasures left for me in life…..and it’s in such abundant supply these days.

    Something’s fishy about the whole thing. It’s probably yet another psyops by our twisted intelligence services. They have a penchant for creating their own self-critique’s and then attributing that blatantly honest critique to the notorious Enemy Number One du jour thus ensuring that anyone in the West who also holds the same criticisms is also an enemy of the state and must be watched more closely…..and perhaps, put on one of those endless lists.

  82. groo

    Petro,

    appreciate Your well argued response,

    and too my apologies to Ian for hijacking the thread to some extent.

    To my/our defense I would say that Greece is a symptom, where we try to dig out the root-causes of one sort or the other.
    There are several quite disparate ones: Psychology, power, money, energy/resources.
    To keep issues strictly separate can lead to ‘results’ which are not very helpful.
    (as a digression: Just today I had an insightful discussion about ‘parameter-dimensions’, and our need to reduce them, to not get lost.)
    This could be life-saving or -threatening, if eg you miss an important dimension.

    In the case of Greece, the EU-monetary union, the Lisbon-treaty, some fundamental categorial errors have been made, in the sense, that several dimensions have been ignored, what makes a heterogenous society work decently.
    Why? Because disparate groups of specialists designed the system, and the ‘invisible hand’ does not work well over categorial borders.

    This is a far cry for the generalists to play a bigger role.

    Now re MB/ Lovelock-Gaia.

    He appears like a traitor to us leftist connectionists, just like George Monbiot, as he started to argue for nuclear power.
    Traitors to the sun as THE source of life, which btw nicely aligns to conceptions of circular or moderately spiral time.

    Invoking nuclear power or even LENR as a mild form of escaping the circularity (of the sun being the sole source of energy) is objected with utter suspicion by certain groups, who hold up the precautionary principle, which is very central to that group’s beliefs.

    Lovelock obviously gave it up. Maybe out of utter despair.

    He is 92 now.
    Maybe we should take this into account.

    Freeman Dyson is 89 now, uttering complete nonesense like a freshman.

    Seems to be difficult being a wise man in todays complicated world.

    Apologies for the digression.

    I now watch the soccer game Germany-Greece.
    The Greek being masters of defensiveness, the Germans being the flexible, ‘modern’ players.

    When you read this, the Germans will have won.
    Metaphors we live by.
    And ultimately loose.

  83. Ian Welsh

    Without nukes I think the path through is dicey. The world doesn’t have any problems in supporting population if you kill a few billion off, but if that’s unacceptable to you (and it is to me) then another solution set is needed. Solar, wind, geothermal and so on will all be used, but I think the transition will require nuclear. I’m not 100% sold on Thorium, as one of my friends who has the math and expertise thinks there are some issues (I’ll have to get the details from him). But some new form of reactor which is not capable of creating fissile materials for nuclear weapons is technically feasible as I understand it, and much less dangerous than the current set.

    Optimism: yes, I am an optimist in this crowd. My optimism consists of expecting a billion deaths!

    The convulsions are already beginning, there’s a lot of threads. Latin America’s shift to the left, the revolutions in the Middle East (which are far from over), the riots in Britain, the rise of Anonymous as an enforcer class, the failure of the peaceful protest movement almost everywhere. Austerity pushing people into the dirt, technologically adept people, I might add. Drone and assymetrical warfare (drones are easy to make folks, a good mechanic could make one in his garage, they’re just radio controlled planes.)

    There are plenty of ways to bring down states and oligarchs, once people decide they have nothing to lose by doing so. The oligarchs are creating the conditions of their own demise. I will add that they have hired, by and large, thugs, sadists and psychopaths as their security forces, and such people have no real loyalty to them. Beating up ordinary people is fun, but turning on their masters will be more fun, and more profitable, by far.

  84. Ian Welsh

    The goal of the next cycle is to get off Earth. Not only is it necessary for the longer-term survival of our species, the creation of a real new frontier will mitigate against tyranny.

  85. Morocco Bama

    I would go a step further and say, if “we” are to survive, it is imperative that we change form, meaning we must evolve from biological beings into something beyond. Biological cannot cut what is coming our way. Its resiliency is quite fragile and within a narrow range of survivable limits. If the essence of Humanity wishes to continue for any length of time, it’s going to have to upload, and I’m not sure it can beat the clock.

    Euthanasia should not be considered illegal considering our imminent future. I would much prefer to slip into death via an anesthetic injection, as opposed to a torturous death. I recently experienced anesthesia for a procedure and it’s the way to go, let me tell you. It whisks you away in a flash…no pain, no nothing…poof, you’re gone…here today, gone tomorrow. What could be better, really?

    http://video.pbs.org/video/1430431984/

    What a beautiful, and humane way to go.

  86. groo

    Ian says:

    …The goal of the next cycle is to get off Earth. Not only is it necessary for the longer-term survival of our species, …

    I strongly object that.

    It is tantamount to accepting ultimate defeat without naming it.
    Where should ‘we’ go?
    Moon, Mars?
    And who?
    The moneyed elite, which can afford this?

    A disruptive evolutionary step?
    I do not understand this.

    I expect 3billion by 2050, <1billion by 2100, which is more 'humane' that an elite-exodus to outer space.

    Did I misunderstand something?
    Yes, you are kidding!

  87. Re Lovelock: Given his professed disdain for the way in which his Gaia theory was co-opted by the New Agers, it seems he’s always had a bit of “hippie punching” in him. So perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to see him go Full Metal Curmudgeon on us as regards nuclear. 🙂

    When you read this, the Germans will have won.
    Metaphors we live by.

    Is this you being smug over Germany’s position in the unfolding Euro debacle, groo? Sigh – nationalism rears its ugly head once again… (I’m absolutely just teasing here. 🙂 Low hanging fruit and all that.)

    Cheers!

  88. groo

    well, Petro,
    there have been some deeply moving scenes in the EM.

    one being the Irish fans, singing ‘the fields of Athenry’ at their time of ultimate defeat, coming out dead last; the other: the Greek, honouring their loosing team.


    During the UEFA Euro 2012 group stage game against Spain, the Irish fans started singing the song roughly 83 minutes into the game and sang for the last six minutes of regulation, as well as past the full time whistle, knowing that they were going to be eliminated from the group as they were down by four goals and had failed to accrue the points necessary to remain in the tournament

    here is a video:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efkTrPxSi7g&feature=related

    Gotta love those folks.

  89. angie

    Mr. Welsh, do you speak Greek? Because I do & I even have the Greek channels on my TV here in the states. I have family in Greece whom I visit every year. So, I dare say I’ve been following things more closely — and more accurately — than most non-Greek speakers. Thus, I have to tell you that you — and your brethren in the blogging community & the US MSM at large — seem to have a huge problem understanding the various political parties in Greece, which is understandable being used to what is, for all intents & purposes, a 2 party system where the 2 parties really aren’t that different from each other. So take this as constructive criticism — the Golden Dawn party, despite what you read in the US press, are anarchists — that’s their core philosophy — anarchy. They even wear the Guy Fawkes masks at rallies & they are the ones seen destroying property & setting fires during protests. To describe them as “right wing” is inaccurate. Are they fascist a–holes? Why yes, but they are extreme left-wing fascist a–holes.
    But again, even using the term left-wing & right-wing to describe Greek parties for an American audience is misleading because of the connotations those terms have here. The New Democracy party is called “right wing” here in the US, but they are only “right wing” compared to the communist parties SYRIZA (oh, and btw, it is an acronym, so all capital letters, not “Syriza” — I see that all the time too) and KKE. (Yes, there are two communist parties in Greece — again, hard concept to understand for American readers, but true nonetheless — SYRIZA can be understood as “soft communist” and KKE as “hard communist”). PASOK, the socialist party, is the *center* in Greece. So, as you can see, to be center-right (New Democracy) in Greece is *not* the same thing as being center-right in the US.
    You certainly have the right to opine on what the elections in Greece means for the future of the world, but you really should describe the parties correctly & in context.

  90. Ian Welsh

    Dear Angie,

    I read actual Greeks, who live in Greece and speak Greek. They do not seem to think much of Greek TV, I might mention. I am Canadian, not American, and I could care less where the parties in Greece would fall on the US political spectrum, both the US parties are so far to the right in a global context or any 20th century historical context that only in America could someone call a Democrat a left winger, or even a liberal. My readers, who have followed me for years, know this and do not need me to explain it in every post.

    PASOK is a neo-liberal party, whether they call themselves that or not, because those are the policies they pursue.

    The Greeks I follow call the GD neo-fascists, so opinions seem to vary. They are virulently and violently anti-immigrant.

    I think I won’t take your word on these things, but rather that of the other people I follow who speak Greek and are in Greece.

    I will tell you this, the current policies being followed by Greek governments have devastated the economy, and that is something many of us predicted would happen. Continued austerity will continue to do so. I do not need to speak Greek to know this because I understand how economies work.

    Greeks can do the right thing, or the wrong thing, for themselves. They have chosen the wrong thing. People often do, that’s their democratic right. Now that Greeks have chosen to do the wrong thing, out of fear, they will reap the consequences and can no longer claim that it is being done to them against their will.

    So far the only country which has chosen to do the right thing during this crisis is Iceland. Their economy is doing much better than Greece’s. It will continue to do so.

  91. angie

    Dear Ian,
    Well, it seems to me that from your sentence here: “both the US parties are so far to the right in a global context or any 20th century historical context that only in America could someone call a Democrat a left winger, or even a liberal” that you and & I are in agreement about my main point, so I don’t see why you take issue with my asking you to present the Greek parties in context. By virtue of your writing this blog on the internet, as opposed to, say a Canadian print newspaper, you most certainly are writing with the possibility of reaching an American audience (and I think you know that), so my point that you should present your descriptions of the Greek parties in context is valid, unless you are saying you don’t want “new readers” and are satisfied with the ones you have. If new visitors are frowned on, than I’m so sorry I bothered you. Finally, I am a Greek who is speaking to you — I was born in Athens to a Greek mother (American father); own property in Athens; I spend approximately 1/4 of the year there; the entire maternal side of my extended family lives in Athens & I too speak to them on a daily basis. Obviously, you are going to rely more on the people you “know” rather than on me — a stranger on the internet — but trying to dismiss my description of Golden Dawn — and they are anarchists & as I said, fascists — so again, where is the disagreement, unless you think that fascism can only arise from the “right” — as not being “valuable” is just plain old condescending, as is your pointing to “long term readers” not needing you to clarify party descriptions (unless, again, new readers are not welcome here). (Also, just a side note — I looked at your “About” section before writing that response to you, and while it notes you reside in Toronto, it also notes that you write for Firedoglake & HuffingtonPost, which I know are geared to American audiences about American politics and it certainly does not describe basic assumptions about your writing that new readers should be aware of before commenting. Just FYI).
    As I said, while it wasn’t the issues I had with your post (all of which, btw, I stand by re: the Greek political parties), you certainly can opine on whether the Greek people did the right thing or the wrong thing in your view as a person who has Greek friends and “knows about economics,” but who doesn’t actually have family & property in Greece & who doesn’t actually speak Greek (btw, that would be me, again, the person whom you dismiss) but the fact is, as I have known from the moment that Greece decided to join the EU, that there was no “good” outcome for Greece — and that not only had to do with the disparity in the value between the drachma and the euro, but also with the civil war after the end of WW2 & Greece’s consequential failure to industrialize properly (but that’s another discussion). You are right, however, that with the state that Greece is in now, ND & austerity isn’t going to save Greece, but you are fooling yourself if you think SYRIZA & more borrowing would have done any better. The people of Greece made what they felt was the best choice among a bunch of really, really bad choices (SYRIZA included) and while it is easy to opine based on what all your Greek friends tell you on what the “right thing” would have been for the Greek people to do, the bottom line is this: No one is going to be able to save Greece. It’s done. And I say that as someone who actually cares about the country & the people in more than an abstract “I know about economics & like to give my opinion on the internet” way.
    Thanks for your time & your response.

  92. John Puma

    To angie,

    FWIW, as relatively new reader of this blog, I appreciated your posts.

    The only question now is, since Ian took the opportunity to torch them, will the “political nuance police” (i.e., commenter “Petro”) need be called in to piss on the ashes.

  93. Lurker the Third

    Just because someone lives in a country 1/4 of the year, doesn’t mean that their analysis is accurate. We each bring biases to our evaluation of a situation.

    Ostensibly anarchist or not, if Golden Dawn is populated by anarchists, their xenophobia will drive them to the hard right. Also, as 50% of the police voted for Golden Dawn, it is fair to ask if GD really is anarchic. The job of a career police officer is to maintain order. It’s difficult to believe they would vote so heavily for anarchists.

  94. Lurker the Third

    Just to be clear, even people who live 100% of the time in a country, can still make an incorrect analysis… even Nobel Prize winners. For examples, see Stirling Newberry’s recent comments about Paul Krugman.

  95. groo

    dear Angie, appreciate your comments (as a -ahem-hopefully not your typically German) very much.

    Lots of mistakes have been made by the EU-buerocrats and politicians.
    Greece seems to have a defunct financial administration for a long time.
    joke: “Need a receipt? Or can we use the Greek method?”
    Nothing new here. It is everywhere, to a different degree and with quite different intentions.

    Eg the richest ‘per person’ country in the EU is Luxembourg, which is THE tax-haven within the EU.
    See eg here:
    “New data: Tiny tax haven is EU’s biggest outside investor and inward recipient.”
    http://taxjustice.blogspot.de/

    Now Greece is A problem, but not THE problem within the EU.

    Considering the whole, the ‘fish’ actually stinks from the head, which is Luxembourg, with different intensity of smell in other countries, including the Netherlands and Germany.

    Which promotes a common habit of ‘we are all criminals, some small, some large’, and is nearly univeral.

    I have an old friend who bought some land on the Peloponnese around 1990,and bult his house with his own hands, with a tower, just like the pirates had in the middle ages (humor).
    ca 1996 the EU financed roads to the fingers, and I was baffled by this waste. Rarely anybody drove these roads. Along the road: ruins of black constructions from people who could not pay their bribe.

    Anybody with an eye to see could notice that.

    Anyway, on a much larger scale, this happens everyday in Luxembourg, and btw, black money from GB and Germany going to Spain.
    (Not to mention the US variant: tax-haven Delaware)

    This is an ubiquitious tax/corruption issue, where the blame regularly is put on the small fish, if anything goes wrong.

  96. Morocco Bama

    A new tactic for the Black Bloc Anarchists. Start vigorously slapping rude, loud-mouthed females on television. Start with Nancy Grace. I would so love to see her slapped. Anarchy should be fun, afterall, otherwise, what’s the point. Or better yet, dress up as females and vigorously slap men on television. Start with Bill O’Reilly or Sean Hannity or Chris Matthews. I would so love to see them slapped on live television. And, after you slap all these people, sue them.

  97. groo

    Lurker the Third

    … For examples, see Stirling Newberry’s recent comments about Paul Krugman. …

    Lost sight of Stirling for quite some time now.
    Even Google seems to have difficulties to track him, but maybe its just me.

    Do you have a link?

    Btw, Krugman seems to loose credibility by the day,
    see eg http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/the-widespread-economic-myths-destroying-the-economy/

  98. “political nuance police”

    LOL. Not sure what that means, but I think I kinda like it.

  99. Ian Welsh

    Stirling, Barry and I all wrote at BOP, as some will recall. We tend to see issues similarly, though there are some differences, of course.

    Countries are full of natives who have bad judgment about their own countries. Sometimes it’s easier to understand basic issues from the outside, sometimes it is much much harder. It’s a question of what type of cray a particular country is.

  100. Julien

    @groo

    Stirling writes here: http://symbalitics.blogspot.ca/

    Sporadically, but it’s good stuff.

  101. groo

    @Julien,

    thanks!

  102. groo

    @Ian,


    Countries are full of natives who have bad judgment about their own countries. Sometimes it’s easier to understand basic issues from the outside, sometimes it is much much harder.

    True.
    This is a very difficult issue.

    It shows as a contrast, or difference, because our cognitive apparatus mainly is constructed
    to recognize that, not ‘truth’, to which we have no good access to, m,,aybe a bit of logic and a bit of science.
    Plus some inborn preferences like ‘big’ = ‘better’.
    Which eg the cuckoo exploits, by laying his ‘big’ eggs into smaller bird’s nests.

    Which again has a lock-in lock-out aspect, like in a phase-locked loop.
    Lock-out happens if the egg is just too big to be recognized as a legitimate egg.

    (This is a natural association for me, having worked for some 7 years in behavioral physiology and sensory physiology, but maybe surprising to some without that background.)

    Translated to our current (human) condition: there is a pull-effect within a locking range, where ‘we’ can accept changes –physiologically and mentally.
    If this range is left, something new happens, which the mathematically inclined term a ‘chaotic phase’. After that, something new happens.
    -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

    In the behavioral domain the german term is ‘Umstimmung’, which eg describes the transition between fear and agression in dogs, which has been extensively studied in the Konrad Lorenz school between 1950 to, say, 1980.

    I do’nt know if that sounds plausible for the tribe here.
    For me it is just -ahem- natural, to interpret affairs that way.

  103. It’s difficult for me to associate an “anarchist” party with anti-immigrant activity. Not even right-wing anarcho-capitalists are in favour (if they’re anarchists worth their salt) of immigration restrictions. Is angie suggesting that Golden Dawn isn’t anti-immigrant? That’s really big news to me.

  104. Morocco Bama

    That’s the weakest argument against Golden Dawn being Anarchists. I’m probably more anarchical than most people here, and yet I am anti-immigration as it exists in its current form. Not anti-immigrant, but anti-immigration, and my reasons for being so are, I’m sure, vastly different than Golden Dawn’s reasons for being anti-immigrant. Fascist bullies need to find scapegoats to use as the building blocks for their seizure of power. They also use anarchical methods that attempt to sow chaos and discord in order to bring about their own sadistic form of order.

    Immigration, as it exists currently, emanates from purely exploitative means, and the results of immigration serve to further that exploitative environment. The only reason the Democratic Party is pro-immigration and pro-immigrant is because of the votes, and because it brings in a host of potential new recruits for the Unions, which are so thoroughly intertwined with the Democratic Party, they are practically one and the same. If the Democrats truly cared about immigrants, in particular, poor, desperate Mexicans, they never would have resoundingly pushed for and passed NAFTA as part of their Neoliberal agenda.

  105. Not anti-immigrant, but anti-immigration, and my reasons for being so are, I’m sure, vastly different than Golden Dawn’s reasons for being anti-immigrant.

    But that’s the key, right? Golden Dawn wants to use the power of the state to delineate a line enforced by violence against people who cannot be referred to as powerful authorities. They don’t have a problem with the authority as such. They are also known to be involved in anti-immigrant activity—not anti-immigration, though they may be that, but anti-immigrant.

    There’s no state without border enforcement.

    If you define immigration as an activity of the state to cause movement of populations, I won’t necessarily think that’s non-anarchist to be opposed to immigration. That’s not at all what’s at stake here. I don’t know of any form of anarchism that would endorse the use of force to prevent a resident of Chiapas from becoming a resident of Austin TX and vice versa. Or Kabul vs. Athens.

  106. Morocco Bama

    Mandos, you are correct, a true Anarchist wouldn’t approve of supporting force imposed by a tyrannical and oppressive entity. In the case of immigration in its current state, I believe it is also force that brings it about……albeit, indirect force, and in a sense, it’s called immigration, but it’s not really immigration….it’s a migration of refugees…something we’re going to see a lot more of in the years ahead….and not just in the second and third world countries, but in the first world countries, as well. Soon enough, there will be no distinctions such as first, second and third world….there will be one world, and most likely, it will be starkly dystopian.

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