The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Looks like Scottish Independence is a “No”

The calls are coming in.

Assuming they are correct, I think this vote is a mistake, and I note that having been given a clean vote to leave and a chance to live their own values, but having given in to fear; for me, at least, Scottish complaints about privatization of the NHS and other cuts to the social state will now ring rather hollow.

However, as with Greece voting to have its economy destroyed by refusing to take a chance on Syriza, people are voting their fear and for the status quo.  Older folks seem to want to just hang on, and are unwilling to take chances for a better future and they can’t really believe that their own elites are intent on impoverishing them, and, effectively, in many cases, killing them. (Because that’s what deliberate austerity policies do.)

The Great Complacency will come to and end; but people aren’t going to like how that happens.  Oh well.


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52 Comments

  1. LorenzoStDuBois

    A damned shame. Silver lining-wise, I understand the political implications for the English would have been pretty bad without the Scots…

  2. Duncan Kinder

    This is but one of many such movements in Europe.

    Somewhat like the tobacco lawsuits or the gay marriage lawsuits, there will be repeated efforts which, at first, are rebuffed. Then, finally, one will prevail and then the dam will burst.

  3. Steve Evans

    Excellent post. The vote was a huge mistake for Scotland. If you’re going to have such a vote, make sure you win it. For, from now on, any complaint from the Scots will sounds like the whine of a crybaby. Boy, did they blow it big time. Scotland has voted itself into irrelevance.

  4. Irrelevance

    The gbp/usd rallies on the back of this and the coming austerity. The elites in london and nyc win another round. The scots got and will get what they deserve

  5. Unfortunately, austerity was baked in the cake no matter what, because the SNP promised either to be tied to the British pound or to the Euro, rather than to take the courageous step of monetary sovereignty, which would have the likely consequences you imagine. That in itself signifies the problem: there are still more people in Scotland who feel that they have more of a stake in present economic arrangements than not, and they weren’t inspired by the idea of economic sovereignty. The same phenomenon has happened in Quebec with the PQ promising keeping the Canadian dollar, Canadian passports, open borders…

    Other than that, the real consequence of the NO vote is that Scotland will now have to live with whatever UKIPpy thing is coming down the pipeline, which is explicitly hostile to Scottish autonomy, among other things.

  6. markfromireland

    Damn, for a while there it looked as if they’d do it. An independent Scotland would have been good for Scotland, good for the Nordic countries, and even good for Ireland and the rump of the British state. I had my hopes up there for a while. Greater Home Rule is very much a second best.

    Greater Home Rule will only come about if Westminster delivers, which given that they’ve promised it and reneged before is by no means a given. Seen from here and from what Scots friends and acquaintances on both sides have said I think that the No campaign only got credibility by being able to say “we have concrete proposals for new powers for Scotland in the event of a no vote”. I think it’s arguable that’s how the Unionist parties – for that is what they are, won the vote.

    But if you check what’s being said now against what was being said even a day or two ago, I can see that Westminster is already working on reneging on that promise. What promise? This commentary from Jenny Hjul the Daily Telegraph’s reporter in Edinburgh sums it up and outlines its significance:

    Scottish independence: Gordon Brown could yet be the Unionist’s trump card – Telegraph Blogs:

    To help tip that balance in the Unionists’ favour, a new timetable has been set out to give Scotland extra powers in the event of a No vote. This is not the last-minute bribe that Alex Salmond said it was. Any plans for further devolution were hammered out by the three main Westminster parties earlier this year and remain unchanged.

    There is no doubt that the measures – which will hand Scots more control over tax and welfare, the economy and employment – are hugely significant and will leave the Union transformed even if independence is rejected.

    The details may still need to be ironed out, but there is broad agreement between the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems that the devolution process is unfinished and that there will be no going back on their word once the referendum is out of the way.

    All this was said months ago, but what is different today is the sense of urgency in introducing any constitutional reforms. In the past 24 hours, George Osborne promised that the handing over of more powers would begin “immediately” after a No vote, Darling said that the Government was going to announce its timetable this week, and Gordon Brown – who until recently has been most notable by his absence from the campaign – has embarked on a round Scotland “change is coming” tour.

    “Immediately after a no vote” means that those reforms should be ready to go immediately. They should be ready NOW. But David Cameron has just said that such reforms won’t be implemented until after the next general election.

    Furthermore if you look at what Cameron is saying it becomes clear that what he has in mind is implementation of the provisions of the Scotland Act 2012 something which has already been deferred until April 2016.

    The status of the “Immediately after a no vote” so-called “promise” is that a draft Scotland Bill will be published probably on January 25 2015, but the detail of the final legislation and the extent of powers devolved will be decided by the party or parties that form the next UK government following the May 2015 election.

    I’ll believe it when I see it enacted into legislation. As Salmond pointed out back in June it’s not as if these bastards don’t have form.

    Salmond dismisses promises of further devolution – The Scotsman:

    Alex Salmond has rejected the prospect of beefed-up powers being handed to the Scottish Parliament by pro-Union parties as the referendum campaign enters its final 100 days.

    Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have all out set out proposals for enhanced devolution – in varying degrees – and insist this is now a clear alternative to independence on the referendum ballot paper.

    But the First Minister said the pro-Union parties “have form” on such pledges and urged Scots not be taken in. “I think the only guarantee of getting more powers is to vote Yes on 18 September,” he said.

    “Anything else is in the grace and favour of the unionist parties, and they have got form in these sort of things.”

    Mr Salmond pointed to the 1979 devolution referendum, when Scots voted in favour of a Scottish Assembly but not in sufficient numbers, and instead got what Mr Salmond described as “18 years of Margaret Thatcher’s government”.

    He added: “Having had that experience, we would be very foolish to rely on promises from unionist parties and far better to take the matter into our own hands on 18 September.

    “We shouldn’t rely on pre-referendum promises by parties which are under pressure. They are under pressure because we have that referendum date, we have the ability on 18 September to take the decision for ourselves, and I think it would be wise for us to do so.

    Such a Parcel of Gullible Dupes in a Nation.

    mfi

  7. Tom

    Kobane in Syria is falling. ISA threw together a reinforced Mechanized Brigade with heavy artillery support and 6,000+ men and is steamrolling YPG’s Kobane Canton. Thousands are fleeing as we speak and YPG’s forces have been getting smashed hard by ISA’s greater firepower.

  8. someofparts

    Winning the death bet keeps looking better and better.

  9. Celsius 233

    Sorry, OT, but there is a full court press to demonize Putin.
    I’m sorry as hell for the source, but, it represents the unwashed, ignorant, who won’t seek the truth;
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-richard-chasdi/putins-latest-iron-curtai_b_5815998.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

    This is the reason we go to war so easily…

    @ someofparts

    At 70 I can relate; but I’m not easy even if cheap…

  10. Hvd

    This just goes to show that democracy is fundamentally conservative. If you want serious change it must come by other means.

  11. Jeff Wegerson

    @ Mandos The “promise” to keep the pound likely garnered more votes than it lost. And like all promises it was just that. Yes the first cake with the pound was destined to leave a bad taste but that could be remedied in the next.

  12. Dan H

    Score one more for my misanthropic side. 8/

  13. The “promise” to keep the pound likely garnered more votes than it lost. And like all promises it was just that. Yes the first cake with the pound was destined to leave a bad taste but that could be remedied in the next.

    Perhaps. It was necessary because people want to know that the money they have in their pockets will continue to be worth something, as they have a stake in the existing system still. At the same time, it raised questions of seriousness and proved to be a vulnerable attack point.

    That’s the point though: there was no good way out of the currency issue, without the public willing to commit to a short-term loss in purchasing power, and potential longer-term punishment such as a vengeful UK or a strict EU might demand. In the end, Scots just weren’t suffering enough under the current system to want to leave.

    But as I said: austerity was and is still in the cards for the *foreseeable* future even on a Yes vote. The value of a Yes vote would have been the Yes itself, not the escape from austerity. That Yes would have been a potent release of social energy. We may see it instead from the Catalans, but I suspect that an eventual Catalonian rupture with Spain would be less consequential than Scotland from the UK.

  14. Pelham

    I’m disappointed, too. But if you look at the result and try to filter out all the hoo-haw about the polls leading up to it, it’s significant that 45% of Scots voted to leave the U.K. That’s more than enough to build on.

    But to do that, the Scots may need more than a vote. They need an event, perhaps a violent event, something that radically changes the parameters. One hopes not a Tahrir Square but rather something like the crowd swell that drove Ceausescu out of power in Romania.

    Don’t know what this would be in Scotland’s case but creative thinking is in order. And it would be good if the separatists could push for an independent currency — an issue that, properly framed, could be a huge rallying point.

  15. thepanzer

    The scots can suck it. They’ve made their choice. They had a historic opportunity and blew it. There tears will be sweet, sweet candy down the road.

    Schadenfreude, it’s what’s for dinner.

  16. Lisa Formally OldSkeptic

    Straight fight between two groups.

    Basically the young who want a better future and (correctly) see none with the UK.
    And the older (particularly those with property) who were worried about losing some of what they have now (they weren’t going to, but they thought they might).

  17. Spinoza

    All it takes is for the UK government to fuck up. One more economic catastrophe and the SNP can use it to blame whichever of the Big Three parties straight to independence and political power. The vote was decisive but not a mandate.

  18. Spinoza

    Not only that but once they start reneging on their promises of devolution and protection for the NHS and pensions it’ll only be fuel to the nationalist fire.

  19. Tsigantes

    I’m with Mando – another Greek? – in that Austerity was baked into the cake both ways. But who exactly baked this cake? Alex Salmond. He also, as above, rejected further devolution / concessions. All three decisions are extraordinary, astonishing.

    Throughout the Scotland campaign, Quebec was used as a parallel. However the two cases are completely different. The geo-political reality of independent Quebec would have been a small Francophone island in an English speaking sea, 85% dependent on Canada & USA for business – in English of course – with contracts in US / Canadian law [right of might].

    The best result for Quebec is the one they now have: with French as one of 2 official languages across Canada, and where blackmail has brought (and continues to bring) special privileges and concessions, on top of the unique rights granted by Wolfe 300 years before: french language, established Catholicism, civil law. Result: federally subsidised cultural preservation plus federal power.

    Unlike Quebec, Scotland is situated in a Europe of many small states. Whether inside the EU, or outside, it could survive and thrive. That negates the size, isolation and punching weight comparison.

    Second, given the EU reality today – in which it is mandatory for new states to join both NATO and the toxic Eurozone – the best solution for Scotland would have been to stay outside the EU and opt for associate agreement like Iceland, Switzerland and Norway. It would also retain 100% of its sovereignty.

    Third, since no country can be independent without control of its finance, obviously Scotland should issue its own currency and create its own Central Bank or equivalent.

    As for NATO, that would be a Scottish decision: but non-membership and neutrality bring financial advantages.

    Therefore, my question is WHY did Alex Salmond conduct a campaign for ‘independence’ – whose platform would deliver Scotland to servitude and colonisation? Why reject further devolution (ie Quebec’s blackmail advantage)? And why promise that a generation would pass before another vote?

    The Scots gave capitalism to the world, and are neither stupid nor naive. They understand EU entry conditions. Furthermore Alex Salmond is an economist, specialised in oil economics for RBS.

    So why did he develop a platform that extreme independence-minded Scots would fear to vote for? A platform that served the UK’s interest? For whom a rational No was the best option, colonialisation inside pound sterling sceond best, servitude inside the Eurozone at least a satisfying punishment – and no obligation for further devolution [no blackmail potential] a bonus?

    And today Salmond resigned – why?
    As a Greek who has had every illusion stripped away since 2008, my ‘crazy’ conclusion is that this was MI5 theatre from start to finish, to postpone independence – as Alex also promised! – for another generation.

  20. Formerly T-Bear

    IIRC those American History classes covering the revolution, it was maintained the population divided: a third Loyalist; a third Revoltist and a third Apathetic or un-involved. Upon later reflection that would be modified to a fifth to a quarter in each Loyalist or Revoltist camps and about half, maybe slightly more in the indifferent camp; such portions reflecting actual numbers.

    Had the Parliament in London at the time taken a trust in actual polling characteristics of populations (or had actual experience in or accurate information about conducting polls), their best bet would have been to conduct a referendum of each of the colonies and promise to abide by the outcome if the opposition would do the same. The greatest likelihood would have been with those adhering to the status quo, revolution thwarted, colonies intact and history set upon a vastly differing course. Maybe the next time the British aristocrats and their want-to-be lackeys give a little trust into the workings of human nature, to do otherwise is costly, look who’s the empire now, and they were the ones blaming mad George III.
    /sarcasm

  21. hvd

    Maybe that is why they put together a Republic rather than a Democracy. Perhaps their fear of the masses had more to do with the masses killing indifference rather than fear of being overthrown in their new venture.

  22. Tsigantes: alas, fictional, not Greek.

  23. alyosha

    I disagree with you on this, Ian. The Scots would not have control of their currency, which would definitely come back to bite them – Europe and the euro provides a large scale recent example. I’m not close enough to say what particular issues pushed the majority to say “no”, but I do breathe a sigh of relief knowing that as far currency goes, they dodged a bullet.

  24. Jay M

    Sort of like New Jersey, a keg tapped at both ends.

  25. Celsius 233

    It looks to me that fear is the big winner here.
    Fear is the great thief here.
    Fear, little understood and the great weapon of empire…

  26. Formerly T-Bear

    @ hvd 20 Sept. 2014 #64967

    A lot of those answers can be found in The Federalist Papers IIRC, certainly why a republic form was chosen over democracy (longevity of form), why sufferance was limited to the propertied class (stability of interests) and the dangers perceived through the actions of mob rule led by local interests usurping national power through representational means (one of the basic reasons for government power being divided as it was, that the government would not be as likely to fall into those hands). The thirteen colonies were seen as (potentially) great an economic unit as any of the great powers of Europe then in size, resources and possible development, the colonies themselves comprised the empire of the founding fathers.

    This is a far cry from the perceptions of a Supreme Court whose members find by seance for original intent. Probably use ouija to receive their messages as well. The degeneration of the other branches of government is as complete as well. It is what happens when, in Ben Franklins famous retort – A Republic, if you can keep it – isn’t kept. YMMD

  27. Maybe now it will be realized by a few more people, that all people really want its to get a quickly.

  28. hvd

    Formerly,

    I was being slightly tongue in cheek in response.

  29. Tom

    Obama has now sided with Assad. Not his intention but the basic result of bombing IS, Nusrah (which killed some Islamic Front leaders who were discussing a joint campaign as well), and some other groups.

    The flames of war have now just intensified.

  30. Tom

    Kobane is almost done for.

    IS recruitment has jumped again, and several rebel groups including JAN have approached IS for an alliance.

    US Airstrikes have totally backfired.

  31. Gee

    I think it must be Costanza time. Whatever the administration thinks to do, they should just do the opposite. I mean, really, I told people from day 1 in september 2011, that is we take the bait (whether it was a false flag or not) we will only end up making ourselves more reviled than ever. How many people do we have to bomb before we realize that it is counterproductive? Gawd help us…oh, wait, there is no gawd.

  32. OT but I post it here anyway. Just FYI for those who follow the small world of Canadian blogging, but two giants of Canadian lefty-interwebs history have passed from this earth. One of them is pogge (aka David Robin Hills), who is on Ian’s blogroll (and I think Ian occasionally guest-blogged there (?) along with Kevin Brennan after we dissolved Tilting At Windmills). I didn’t know pogge in person but I had years of contact with him through the babble forums—the grandmother of the Canadian lefty blogosphere—and its splinter groups, although I hadn’t encountered him much in years. Anyway, he had taken his blog down for repairs before he died, I don’t know what of, and his blog will, alas, remain down.

    Information plus link to obituary here.

    The other one who passed away is the famous Canadian online commentator skdadl, also known as Susan Kent Davidson. I also knew her back from the babble-times, before there was a great schism in the mid-2000s and we both left babble, and unlike pogge, I had met Susan several times in person. She was also a pogge co-blogger, although for the past few years she completely disconnected herself from the internet, moved away from Toronto, and we only ever got updates on her well-being…from pogge.

    People here are less likely to have heard of her, but I thought I’d put up the info anyway. She had a very long history of left-wing activism in Canada both online and off and an amazingly eloquent writer. My life was enriched by having known her since 2000. I’m sad that I never had a chance to catch up with her again before cancer took her.

    Her obituary here.

  33. Declan

    Thanks for that Mandos, both will be missed.

  34. Tom

    Backlash is building against the US Bombing Campaign in Syria.

    UAE’s first female pilot was disowned by her tribe for bombing Syria. KSA arrested one of its pilots for refusing to bomb Syria. Libyan rebels pledged allegiance to IS. Abu Sayaf in the Philippines pledged loyalty to IS.

    Several JAN and IF groups defected to IS, and the list goes on.

    As far as Sunnis are concerned, Obama is now the same as Assad.

    Vietnam mk 2 has begun. Like that war, America has forgotten that the audience it needs to convince is not the American Public, but the people they are supposed to be “liberating.”

  35. pogge will be missed…

  36. any comments on FDL?

  37. Tom

    Raqqah now is under complete control of IS, the remaining FSA holdouts defected or fled to Aleppo Province.

  38. Tom

    BREAKING!!!

    ISA is now one mile from Baghdad in massive force and ISF has collapsed.

    Its all over the news in Britain, US, and in Iraq.

  39. Gee

    Huh? WTF Tom? Where are you getting this and what is your point?

  40. markfromireland

    @ Tom September 29, 2014

    “BREAKING!!!

    ISA is now one mile from Baghdad in massive force and ISF has collapsed.”

    Evidence please.

    “Its all over the news in Britain, US, and in Iraq.”

    No it isn’t.

    This is from the busiest and one of them most comprehensive news aggregators in the UK note that it gives Headline, source, and time:

    NEW in the last 5 minutes
    ‘We are their prisoners’ BBC 17:58
    Beheading suspect’s mother apologises in video Emirates 24/7 17:58
    ISIS recruiters target Mindanao schools The Manila Times 17:58
    Israel and Palestine: the new war for hearts and minds The Irish Times 17:57
    Gulf economic growth to quicken in 2015 Emirates 24/7 17:56

    Mutleg: Kurdish Ministers to assume their tasks in Baghdad soon Iraqi News 17:56
    Egyptian Court Releases 21 Muslim Brotherhood Members The New Indian Express 17:56
    Fire at Sicily’s Milazzo Oil Refinery hampers vessel operations Ship Management International 17:54
    Europe’s stand against Islamic State is all about the home front Christian Science Monitor 17:53

    In the last 10 minutes
    Iran to Hang Rayhaneh Jabbari for Killing Man who Tried to Rape… IBTimes.co.uk 17:53
    Israel Part Of US Anti-Syrian Coalition RINF 17:52
    Kalhat to bring TORO irrigation products to Oman Times of Oman 17:52
    Omani stone producers carve out new partnerships in Italy Times of Oman 17:52
    Lifting of Iran sanctions will help global gas markets, says Gas Exporting Countries Forum Times of Oman 17:52

    Call for awareness to prevent cyber security frauds Times of Oman 17:52
    McCain: Obama’s Plan to Train Syrians to Fight ISIS But Not Assad… PJ Media 17:52
    Ukrainians say Russian troops captured them in east Ukraine The Irish Independent 17:51
    Some of our drinking water is older than the sun: study Fox News 17:51
    New Tillis ad hits Hagan, Obama on Islamic State News & Observer, North Carolina 17:51

    Barack Obama admits United States underestimated Islamic State South China Morning Post 17:50 [Source requires subscription]
    From cloak and dagger to mouse and pad: Mossad recruiting moves online South China Morning Post 17:50 [Source requires subscription]
    Zephyr high-altitude unmanned aircraft flown in Middle East UPI 17:50
    M.E.: Davis was in SUV when shot News4Jax.com, Florida 17:50
    Accessories: Nautical pursuits The National 17:50

    Obama: US ‘underestimated’ Islamic State threat Times-Picayune, Louisiana 17:50
    This Impromptu Family Photo Shoot With Fitness Star Jamie Eason Is Pure… POPSUGAR 17:48
    Egypt, Libya plunge in African governance index Ahram Online 17:48

    In the last 15 minutes
    Islamic State: The sitcom Brisbane Times 17:48
    Cruz hits Obama on Iran policy Washington Examiner 17:47
    Syria Calls for Global Effort to Fight Al Qaeda-Linked Militant Groups RIA Novosti 17:47
    Western ISIS fighters are the most brutal: defector New York Post 17:46
    Islamic extremist trial begins in Belgium RTE 17:46

    Turkey deploys tanks to border as lawmakers to consider anti-IS action The Express Tribune 17:46
    Bombing the Mideast for Fun and Profit OpEdNews.com 17:44
    Yom Kippur fast doubles risk of early delivery in pregnant women, study shows Jerusalem Post 17:43
    Rivlin to participate in Slichot Jerusalem Post 17:43

    In the last half-hour
    Stolen Jewellery Police Appeal The Northern Echo 17:43
    Rafah crossing opening closer: sources Asharq Alawsat 17:43
    Cheshire MPs back RAF airstrikes against ISIS Middlewich Guardian, Cheshire 17:42
    Blog: no surprises from the Chancellor as he sets out his economic plan Independent Professional Contractors Group 17:42
    Quote of the Day: Veterans take down Fox News for “boobs on… Feministing (Weblog) 17:42

    Saudi Arabia to keep crude output steady Times of Oman 17:42
    Air monitor app places start-up among world’s 50 best The Times of Israel 17:41
    Gaza sweet potatoes exported to Europe for 1st time since siege Ma’an News Agency 17:41
    Thousands more refugees flee Syria for the safety of Turkey and gather… Daily Mail 17:41
    Parliament speaker meets ambassadors on bilateral ties Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) 17:41

    Syria: US dual policy is recipe for more violence Centre Daily Times, Pennsylvania 17:40
    McCain Rejects Obama’s Claim U.S. ‘Underestimated’ ISIS: ‘Like Watching a Train Wreck’ Mediaite 17:40
    Eric Holder Leaves the Field | Capitol Quip Roll Call 17:40
    Syria “stands with international effort” to fight Islamic State Thomson Reuters Foundation 17:40
    Information, inspiration and training for Barco partners in Dubai Netherlands Corporate News 17:40

    There is this story on the BBC site:

    BBC News – Islamic State crisis: Iraq air strikes ‘halt IS advance’

    Iraqi ground forces, backed by air strikes, appear to have halted advancing Islamic State (IS) militants in a town west of Baghdad.

    The BBC’s Lyse Doucet in the Iraqi capital says the air strikes followed clashes with IS militants, who have been making gains towards the capital.

    Amariya al-Falluja, 40km (25 miles) from Baghdad, is a key strategic town.

    It comes as a US-led coalition continues to carry out air strikes on IS targets in Syria and Iraq.

    The area around Amariya al-Falluja is now said to be calm, but there is a standoff along the main road to Falluja to the north, which is controlled by IS, our correspondent says.

    But 25 miles is a lot more than one mile is it not?

    mfi

  41. Tom

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/isis-militants-mile-baghdad-fierce-fighting-reported-article-1.1956646

    http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-baghdad-march-islamic-state-1-mile-away-iraqi-capital-1696256

    http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/09/29/isis-fighters-now-gates-baghdad

    Just for starters.

    Twitter is going as crazy as the Kobane feed about Baghdad.

    Word is that ISA is out in the open facing little resistance and moving to surround the city.

    This just released by IS showing the fighting yesterday as it started its offensive:

    https://justpaste.it/buaithapart1

  42. Tom

    http://justpaste.it/buaithapart2

    Taken just outside Baghdad.

  43. markfromireland

    Al Khalidiya can by no stretch of the imagination be described as “just outside Baghdad”.

  44. markfromireland

    “Its all over the news in Britain, US, and in Iraq.”

    Nope it still ain’t “all over the news”. Not in Britain, not in the US, or anywhere in the Middle East. Not in English and not in Arabic.

  45. Celsius 233

    This from Patrick Cockburn, who say IS is ONE HOURS DRIVE from Baghdag. That would be roughly 30 kilometers or so.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-an-hour-away-from-baghdad–with-no-sign-of-iraq-army-being-able-to-make-a-successful-counterattack-9763658.html

  46. JustPlainDave

    The only clearly identifiable location I see in those photos is Ramadi.

  47. Stirling: you mean a comment on FDL on the recent passings-away? I don’t remember if I ever created an FDL acct, but if someone wants to repost anything there, feel free. I vaguely recall that skdadl used to comment occasionally at FDL and some US sites, but I knew her from babble, en masse, breadnroses, and other Canadian sites.

  48. Tom

    http://www.click2houston.com/news/officials-isis-fighters-struck-near-baghdad/28331094

    Other reports and twitter feeds show IS is within a mile and moving to encircle the city. They have held Al-Whida, Mahmoudiya, and Kragol District, plus Abu Ghraib for quite some time and been probing defenses for months. This appears to be their main offensive now.

    http://www.christiantoday.com/article/iraq.islamic.state.militants.close.in.on.baghdad/41066.htm

    Again from yesterday, activists are reporting ISA units a mile from the city.

    Mosul burnt for five days in heavy gunfire before people woke up on the 10th of June to hear it fell because Iraqi Media hid the carnage while focusing on Samarra so Official Iraqi denials have no credibility. Activists are consistently placing ISA about a mile from the city and spreading out. Fallujah Ameria is the outer ring what is clearly the AQI Baghdad Belts plan, constituting three rings of encirclement of Baghdad designed to cut it off from supply and reduce it through siege.

  49. JustPlainDave

    Looks to me like it may be bad reporting. The click2houston link above previously referred to an area just outside Baghdad that shares a name with a base apparently 80 clicks NW of Baghdad (the graf mentioning the location near Baghdad has now mysteriously vanished from the story).

    The pictures in the paste it links above were captioned to refer to Al Khalidiya and Albu Aytha – if the latter is north of Ramadi rather than on the outskirts of the capital, it makes a lot more sense.

  50. markfromireland

    I agreed Bad reporting as noted above by JustPlainDave. The second link “less than 2km away from entering Baghdad” is a re-hash of Andrew White’s claims which fails to mention that The Foundation for Relief and Reconciliation in the Middle East is Andrew White’s organisation.

    Yes Albu Aytha is north of Ramadi.

    I think we can pretty well say that Anbar has been effectively over run and that what they’re IS forces are doing now is back filling prior to continuing a squeeze on Baghdad. They don’t need to take the place and I doubt they’ll try all they need to do is make it ungovernable. They’ll probably close down the Airport and make evacuation of foreign diplomats difficult.

    mfi

  51. Lisa Formally OldSkeptic

    Apologies for being away, my NSA/CIA team have been on holidays, blasted union rules.. just wait until their jobs are outsourced to India or Asia (found a tribe in Asia that are prepared to be paid in insects)… though you will have to use Google translate to understand my posts then (or buy your own babblefish) 🙂

    Watching this whole IS thing is like, except for the terrible death and destruction, watching a Monty Python sketch. This is beyond a CF (BACF?) and that is just now, what is it going to be like in another few months as the CoS fracture and fragment even more and IS clock up more wins?

    On cue the US and Turkey are making noises about ‘buffer zones’ and ‘no fly zones’ as they both try to work out some way to pretend to attack IS in Syria while really stiffing the Syrian Govt, tricky one that but I’m sure they’ll work out something, somehow.

    On the Kurdish front you have the US wanting to keep them in play (because of the Israelis) while the Saudis and probably the Turks (as long as IS supplies them with oil from there too) would like them to all die, preferably horribly.

    In the southern Syrian areas (inc Golan Heights) the Israelis (the shadow member of the CoS) have become Al Nasra’s artillery and air force, to the point where the UN observers and Syrian Army have cleared out. Israel seems to have come to the conclusion that only Shia fighters matter as a threat to them, so if they are all destroyed by a bunch of Sunni fighters, then Israel will be somehow safer. This has got to be the stupidest concept in the history of the ME.

    And (thanks for all the great links and comments everyone), IS drives towards Baghdad. Agree with MFI in that they wont try (and really can’t) take Baghdad, but the airport…maybe the US Embassy and capture/kill a lot of US people? They are adept at tactical moves that give them big propaganda wins, giving the ‘great Satan’ a really bloody nose like that must be attractive to them. As usual they will have their own plans.

    On the good news front the ceasefire in the Ukraine is (shakily) holding far better and longer than I expected. Thought Porky would be dead or gone by now and replaced by “the Russians have nuked us” DM (or someone like that) and the Ukrainian Govt sending off its last 16 year olds kids (and 60 year old men) to be slaughtered . But it seems the sheer scale of their military defeat has enabled some, sort of, cooler heads to hold on…… Plus I underestimated the cleverness of the Russians…again. Even NATO has gone a bit quiet as bits of reality are slowly sinking into their pin like heads, even vague signs that the EU is starting think a bit, then again breath holding is not recommended (they seem far more interested in making the Irish pay individual bills for their water at the moment). I suspect they have dark desires towards some mischief in the whole Moldovia/Transanistra area.

    And a terrible (and very cynical) suspicion is bubbling within me in that the protests in Hong Kong are just a bit too convenient…and just so like the US playbook (motto: “death, chaos and overreach are our business”).

    I wonder what historians of the future will say about this time? “Never in the history of human conflict has so much stupidity been shown by so many people” perhaps?

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