The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

As You See the Images of the Refugee Crisis

I want you to realize that this sort of thing will be the norm when climate change really gets going. Drought, starvation, rising sea levels: The migrations will be vast.

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10 Comments

  1. Dan Lynch

    Right. And climate change induced drought did play a role in the Syrian “Arab spring,” though I don’t think the uprising would have continued this long without outside meddling.

  2. Steeleweed

    1% Climate Change, 99% power-hungry bastards.
    Here’s a poem that came off FB:

    “HOME,” by Somali poet Warsan Shire:

    no one leaves home unless
    home is the mouth of a shark
    you only run for the border
    when you see the whole city running as well

    your neighbours running faster than you
    breath bloody in their throats
    the boy you went to school with
    who kissed you dizzy behind the old tin factory
    is holding a gun bigger than his body
    you only leave home
    when home won’t let you stay.

    no one leaves home unless home chases you
    fire under feet
    hot blood in your belly
    it’s not something you ever thought of doing
    until the blade burnt threats into
    your neck
    and even then you carried the anthem under
    your breath
    only tearing up your passport in an airport toilets
    sobbing as each mouthful of paper
    made it clear that you wouldn’t be going back.

    you have to understand,
    that no one puts their children in a boat
    unless the water is safer than the land
    no one burns their palms
    under trains
    beneath carriages
    no one spends days and nights in the stomach of a truck
    feeding on newspaper unless the miles travelled
    means something more than journey.
    no one crawls under fences
    no one wants to be beaten
    pitied

    no one chooses refugee camps
    or strip searches where your
    body is left aching
    or prison,
    because prison is safer
    than a city of fire
    and one prison guard
    in the night
    is better than a truckload
    of men who look like your father
    no one could take it
    no one could stomach it
    no one skin would be tough enough

    the
    go home blacks
    refugees
    dirty immigrants
    asylum seekers
    sucking our country dry
    niggers with their hands out
    they smell strange
    savage
    messed up their country and now they want
    to mess ours up
    how do the words
    the dirty looks
    roll off your backs
    maybe because the blow is softer
    than a limb torn off

    or the words are more tender
    than fourteen men between
    your legs
    or the insults are easier
    to swallow
    than rubble
    than bone
    than your child body
    in pieces.
    i want to go home,
    but home is the mouth of a shark
    home is the barrel of the gun
    and no one would leave home
    unless home chased you to the shore
    unless home told you
    to quicken your legs
    leave your clothes behind
    crawl through the desert
    wade through the oceans
    drown
    save
    be hunger
    beg
    forget pride
    your survival is more important

    no one leaves home until home is a sweaty voice in your ear
    saying-
    leave,
    run away from me now
    i dont know what i’ve become
    but i know that anywhere
    is safer than here.

  3. guest

    I think this is what the future looks like, but I think war and famine from resource scarcity and economic instability will be the main driver, plus an assist from climate change droughts. By the time the sea is flooding Bangladesh and the Netherlands, most of modern civilisation will have been finished off, along with a good number of us. By that point I doubt that any mass migrations will be from the frying pan into the fire, and there will be a lot fewer masses to migrate to begin with.

  4. Jack Parsons

    Not sure about ISIS, but Global Baking (TM) has definitely been the driver of the Sudan/South-Sudan rift. Desertfication marched southward, and desert dwellers pushed out farmers in its wake.

  5. Pelham

    If one looks at land masses, latitudes and oceans, Europe and the US would not be the obvious places for migrants — driven by climate or chaos — from Africa and the Middle East. Europe is tiny and already crowded. The more obvious destinations are Russia, Central Asia and points east.

    Yet Russia, Central Asia and points east don’t appear to have the same migrant problem. Why is that? And why are West European countries so beset? My guess is that these destinations are chosen not out of consideration for living space or viability but rather for their relatively generous government-provided benefits. If I were a hard-pressed migrant today, I’d probably make the same choice.

    But on a national scale, it’s not a viable choice. Never mind the availability of resources. The fact is that Europeans will not tolerate their presence, and that is a choice they don’t have to justify to anyone.

  6. Hugh

    I have been frustrated by the vacuousness of the news coverage of the migrant crisis.

    First, Europe doesn’t exist. If Europe can’t save Greece, let alone the rest of the Southern and Eastern Tiers, how can it save all these migrants?

    Sure, it’s relatively cheap, a few billions versus tens of billions for Greece et al, for Germany to take in 40,000 migrants this year, but second and as Ian points out, this is not a one year deal. What Ian does not mention and should is population. Under present trends by 2050, the US will have a population of nearly 400 million, most of this growth will come from immigrants and their children. We can already see the strains in our society made worse by the kleptocracy of the rich and elites who rule us. If we will have extreme problems coping, think about Europe and the rest of the world also saddled with their kleptocracies. Although it is not politic to say so, but as I have, Europe was falling apart before this crisis. And yet it is looking at one to three million migrants a year entering it for the next 50 years.

    Consider for a moment that a country like Nigeria had a population of 32 million in 1950 and is projected to have a population of 391 million in 2050 or roughly the same as ours at that point. It is already only a marginally functioning state at its current population of 182 million (data from the US Census). And it is hardly alone. We have seen revolution and repression in Egypt with a population of 88 million. What will it be like in 2050 with a population of 138 million? Or Ethiopia with a population in 2050 of 228 million? Or Uganda, a country the size of Oregon, with a population of 93 million? These aren’t just unsustainable numbers. They are wildly, scary, unsustainable ones. And with them, and made worse by kleptocracy, will come enormous species and ecosystem destruction, acceleration of global climate disruption, and tens of millions and eventually hundreds of millions of those trying to escape these conditions.

    But you really won’t see a discussion, intelligent or otherwise, of this in the coverage. You won’t see how Turkey, a NATO member which has acted as a funnel for foreign fighters to ISIS and which has sponsored broad smuggling across its border in support of ISIS, is also allowing the transit of migrants across its territory and via Turkish traffickers to Greece. You won’t see how a country bankrupted by Germany like Greece is supposed to take care of this never ending flow of migrants. You will see a country like Hungary heavily criticized for its treatment of the migrants, but not so much of its near bankruptcy at the hands of Western Europe which gave rise to the current corrupt authoritarians who now run it. Like Greece, Hungary is not a big country or a rich one. What is it expected to do with 50,000 migrants wandering throught its countryside? Has anyone thought about what a health hazard this is? When was the last time any of these had a shower? Where are they pissing and shitting and cleaning themselves? Where is their garbage going? How are they getting food? What are they using for money? Are they up on their vaccinations? Is ISIS infiltrating them? These may be inconvenient, unpleasant questions, but they need to not only be asked but answered. Is any of this being done by the media? No.

    And then there are the larger social questions. We all understand that these people want to come to Europe for a “better life”. But what will they contribute to the societies they wish to enter? Do they want to contribute anything? It is not clear how many have any useful skills. Again it is not politic to talk about it, but these are people from countries with radically different languages, cultures, political traditions, and religions from most of Europe. Will they assimilate? How much?

    As more and more come, what will be their effect on wage levels. In this country, migrants have helped depress US wages. The silence of the media on all this is deafening. Instead we get “if it bleeds, it leads” coverage of the migrant crisis in Europe, and in the US, the converse, coverage of Trump railing against the immigrant labor which has built and staffed so many of his hotels and resorts and threatening to deport 11 million of them. And more silence on the simple solution of punitively fining employers who hired illegals or discriminated against legal immigrants and citizens. I see all this and it gives me whiplash from all the incoherent and contradictory storylines, i.e. lies, I am being hit with.

  7. vera

    Hugh, very well stated. But you haven’t mentioned all the bleeding hearts all over Europe decrying the mean spirit of their countrymen and women who are alarmed by all these goings on. Nor have you mentioned the fact that the papers in Germany will not report on what is really going on in the communities these migrants have been imposed upon. If a tiny bit leaks out, the people protesting the takeovers of their towns are called, predictably, neo-nazis.

    As far as I can tell, many Europeans are so caught up in the thinking that this is just a passing “humanitarian crisis” and if you would just stop being a meanie, neighbor, and open your home and heart to poor wanderers, all will be well. They are in for a big surprise.

    And the hounds of war are baying for Assad… and the hapless bureaucrats are pretending all these people are from Syria, and the wave can be stopped… ah, well…

  8. Ian Welsh

    Someone always thinks I should have written a different article than the one I did.

  9. vera

    Funny how commenters have a mind of their own. Go figure. 🙂

  10. Ten Bears

    And violent. Not just war and pestilence, but violence born of desperation.

    I suggested a number of years ago we all need to grow thicker skin. The anthropogenic atmospheric disruption alone could take Billions with a B of lives, not only of sea level rises but hemispheric wide storms of the sort we of the Pacific Northwest are so familiar, only hurricane force uprooting what are euphemistic known as “old growth” forests. The cascading War, the resulting break down of basic sanitation, food and.water or a mass, or perhaps multiple migrations could easily take billions more – may not be ill upon departure but the odds of that upon arrival are slim. I.gear our grandchildren, my great grandchildren, are not going to think well of us.

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