Update 3: It’s over. Prigozhin has turned around. He only had one slim chance once he didn’t get defections from them military.
Putin, if he has any sense, needs to get this clown back into prison and disband Wagner or at the very least stop the convincts to mercs pipeline. However it looks like the deal may be that Shoigu gets canned and Prigozhin doesn’t go to prison, in which case Putin has made a significant mistake. (At least if he keeps the deal.)
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Well, it’s on. This is why you don’t use mercenaries, let alone mercenaries who are convicts, or trust scum like Prigozhin.
Remember that Prigozhin is to the right of Putin, which is where the threat was always going to come from.
The issue here is just how much of the Russian army will side with Putin. If it’s anything substantial, he wins. If not, he’s done unless he can occupy the Kremlin. This is why Prigozhin emphasized not enough weapons, etc… it was a stab in the back narrative: “Putin won’t let us win the war.”
Putin played around with the war, unwilling to go all in and used Wagner as a prison to frontlines pipeline. That was a mistake.
We’ll see if it’s a fatal one. This is entirely a matter of morale—what the military will do.
If Putin wins, he will be stronger than before the coup, just as Erdogan was, because he will be able to use it to purge opponents.
Update: I’m not seeing reports of mass desertions to Prigozhin. If’ that’s the case, his odds are slim.
Prigozhin is rushing for Moscow. He needs to occupy the Kremlin and declare victory. If he doesn’t, he’s probably finished in a day or two.
My money is on Putin.
Update 2: Still not seeing any signs of significant defections from the military and the regional governors and generals are siding with Putin.
Prigozhin needs to rush to Moscow and declare victory. If he does, he might win. If not, he’s toast.
Putin’s question is if he has a loyal force in the military that will fire who aren’t on the frontline facing Ukraine. The military is not going against him, but will they defend him? And, as is his modus operandi, I suspect he’s being too cautious about the use of force.