The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Monday March 31st US Covid-19 Data

Here are the numbers again, from our anonymous benefactor. The doubling rate has dropped from it’s previous higher number. In the (unattached) spreadsheet VA had its deaths go from 20 to 15.

This has a ways to run yet. Remember that these numbers are absolutely and completely understated. There are people dying who aren’t registered as being from Covid and there are tons of unknown cases since there isn’t a lot of testing. What is important is the trendline and the doubling rate.

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March 30th US Covid Data, Doubling Rate Slows


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  1. jeremy

    The cruelty of the US administration knows no bounds:

    ” To the chagrin of its critics, the US is leaning into its sanctions against the Iranian regime at a time when the Iranian people are desperate, facing an outbreak that far outpaces the country’s ability to control or suppress it. The Europeans, meanwhile, have come up with a counterweight: the German Foreign Ministry confirmed Tuesday that a new ‘financial mechanism’ was used for the first time to export “medical goods from Europe to Iran.” The hope is that the new INSTEX – Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges – system would shield the involved parties from US sanctions that have hampered Iranian efforts to import medicine and other medical supplies. ”

    The world will not forget – EVER.

  2. Tom

    The Guard sent us 8 medics and we licensed 22 students in our Basic Class who were eligible for the EMT-B test by emergency licensing. So I now have a normal shift for a given value of normal.

    That said, children are starting to die from the virus here in the US and in Europe. We knew this was coming from leaks from China and Iran. No one is safe from this virus, and chloroquine is only 50% effective since we started using it. Many folks out here have QT issues that preclude its use, still this is massively improving things out here.

    Still the cases are continuing to rise and no age group is safe. All must be protected from the virus. Don’t hold out for a vaccine, we never been able to develop one for this family of viruses, otherwise the common Cold would be eliminated today.

  3. Lemmy

    If the testing rate is not constant, doesn\’t that make any attempt to discern the doubling rate inaccurate?

  4. @Tom

    Are you guys taking HQ together with zpac, or just by itself? If just by itself, do you know why?

  5. I'm An Asshole

    Gee, what would cause the doubling rate to decrease even while true case growth was accelerating? Heavy bias on early testing towards those who are COVID-positive and then cases increasing so quickly they outstrip the testing capacity, maybe?

  6. Benjamin


    “Don’t hold out for a vaccine, we never been able to develop one for this family of viruses, otherwise the common Cold would be eliminated today.”

    You can’t make a vaccine for an entire family of viruses. You can make a vaccine for a single specific strain of one virus. The common cold will never be completely eliminated because it isn’t a single illness.

    Anyway, a vaccine for Covid-19 is at minimum a year away, probably longer.

  7. Tom

    We don’t have Z-Pac, we were forced to hand our stocks to Detroit who needed it more as they got a red zone far worse than ours. If we need antibiotics, they are flown in from Grand Rapids under guard and strictly metered to the correct patient. Till supplies can catch up, everything is strictly controlled to avoid wastage.

  8. @Tom

    Bummer. Stay well. It’s probably not a bad idea to make sure you have adequate zinc intake.

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