The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Surveillance Society

Surveillance States and the End of Freedom

The detention of David Miranda, Glenn Greenwald’s husband has led to much hand wringing.  He was forced to give up the passwords to his phone and his computer, was threatened with jail, and was only allowed to have a lawyer if he chose one of the police’s list.  He was not, of course, allowed to be silent.  This is the law, nothing illegal was done.

But of more interest to me is an article by Alan Rusbridger, the editor of the Guardian.  He details the threats made by the government if he did not destroy or hand over the files, including the destruction of hard drives in the Guardian’s basement.  The most telling graph is this one:

The state that is building such a formidable apparatus of surveillance will do its best to prevent journalists from reporting on it. Most journalists can see that. But I wonder how many have truly understood the absolute threat to journalism implicit in the idea of total surveillance, when or if it comes – and, increasingly, it looks like “when”.

We are not there yet, but it may not be long before it will be impossible for journalists to have confidential sources. Most reporting – indeed, most human life in 2013 – leaves too much of a digital fingerprint.

It’s not just digital in the sense of online.  Again the endgame is this: recognition software linked to cameras, drones, even spy satellites.  Facial recognition, gait recognition, IR signatures and more.  This stuff is pretty reliable.  You will be tracked 24/7.  You will go nowhere without it being possible to know where you have gone.  You will do nothing online without it being tracked.  The hysteria over online bullying will be used to make online anonymity (as limited as it already is), straight up illegal.

Everything you do will be tracked.  Audio is being added to many cameras now, as well, so they won’t just see what you do, they will hear it.  Fools will dismiss this as paranoia, it is simply fact, this is the end game, this is where the surveillance web leads, when you add the telecom revolution on top of this.  This is more intrusive than what Orwell had in Big Brother, because they didn’t record, if someone wasn’t listening at the time, you were ok.

I have long said that I will know people are serious about change when it is a public ethic that a surveillance camera is evil, and the moment one is put up, it is destroyed.  If you want to stop this short of that, you will need draconian laws.

1) No audio surveillance.  Period.

2) The government cannot use surveillance to follow, watch or listen to anyone without a court warrant.  That court warrant expires in X years (probably 3), and once it expires, the person is given all records gained.  Furthermore there can be no blanket court orders, every one must be individual.

3) No public cameras.  If you need a place watched, hire someone to do it.  We have an unemployment problem anyway.

4) Private surveillance cameras in private places only, no transmission of those records off-site, no linking of those records to anything else (the standard practice in many stores is to photograph you as you pay and link that to your credit card) and all records are destroyed after 24 hours.  This applies not just to customers, but to employees, who should have rights as well.  As a business the results of their work are your business, the second by second record of how they do the job is rarely your business and if it is, hire a supervisor.

5) A right to privacy.  The current laws assume that if you are in a public place you have no reasonable expectation of privacy.  Those laws were not made with blanket surveillance and the telecom revolution in mind.  To put it in vulgar terms, regular photography is ok, but you cannot be stalked.  Someone cannot follow you around, photographing you, whether in person or remotely, without your permission, the above mentioned court-order or perhaps,  reasonable suspicion you are about to commit a crime.  I”m leery of the last, simply because of the abuse of such clauses we’ve seen from the police.  (ie. good laws cannot protect bad people, see Machiavelli.)

All of the above laws must be backed up with criminal sentences, not fines, or they will not be obeyed.

As I have said repeatedly, individuals have the right to know what their government is doing, and government has no right to know what citizens are doing except under very prescribed circumstances.

If you want some form of surveillance, the only good form would be making sure that every police officer has a camera on them at all times.  Even that I have doubts about, since sometimes it actually is best to let someone off with a warning.

A working society requires people to have discretion and use it.  No set of laws works in all circumstances.  But as with children, if they won’t use their discretion, if they won’t behave properly, then draconian laws are necessary. It is clear that our lords and masters think they have a right to track us 24/7.  That can’t be allowed, and what will happen if it occurs (and it’s close) is far worse than a few criminals getting away because there wasn’t a camera nearby.

The Logic of the Surveillance State

I don’t have a lot to say about Prism, it’s nothing that I find surprising at all.  I would have been surprised if they weren’t doing this.  That does not, of course, mean that they should be doing it.  Basically, assume you’re being watched at all times. That does not mean a human being is watching you, but assume that an algorithim is watching your behaviour, and will flag you if your pattern of contacts seems suspicious.  Once you are tagged, assume that everything you’ve done online, and most of what you’ve done in the real world if you’re in most major metropolitan centers, can be back traced.  As pattern recognition becomes better, this will become even easier to do, and, indeed, automatic.  The online and the offline will be linked together.

Again, this is nothing I didn’t believe was already happening, which isn’t to say that proof isn’t a nice thing to have, for all the dullards with their heads in the sand, who refuse to believe the obvious till it becomes as obvious as a boot stomping their face, over and over again.

This feeds directly in to the nature of our society, both domestically in Western countries and internationally.  Our society is fundamentally unjust, as the charts in the Failure of Liberalism post make clear.  It is fundamentally unfair internationally, and much of the so-called progress of the last few decades has been a mirage (for example, Indians now live on less calories a day than they did 40 years ago.) The women being raped, and the men and women being butchered in the Congo are killed because of how we structure the international economy, and the people who die in factory fires, likewise.

Surveillance states aren’t uncommon at all.  Chinese and Japanese history are full of curfews, and people having to carry papers at all times, and restrictions on travel, and so on.  The late Roman empire was, in certain respects, a surveillance state.  Of course the USSR was, East Germany was, and indeed, many European countries, even today, require citizens to carry and show papers.

Citizen.

The problem with surveillance states, and with oppression in general, is the cost.  This cost is both direct, in the resources that are required, and indirect in the lost productivity and creativity caused by constant surveillance.  Surveillance states, oppressive states, are not creative places, they are not fecund economically.  They can be efficient and productive, for as long as they last, which is until the system of control is subverted, as it was in the USSR. We forget, in light of the late USSR’s problems, that it did create an economic miracle in the early years, and tremendously boost production. Mancur Olson’s “Power and Prosperity” gives a good account of why it worked, and why it stopped working.

Liberalism, in its classic form, is, among other things, the proposition that you get more out of people if you treat them well.  Conservatism is the proposition that you get more out of people if you treat them badly.

Post war Liberalism was a giant experiment in “treat people well”.  The Reagan/Thatcher counter-revolution was a giant experiment in “treat people worse”.  The empirical result is this: the rich are richer and more powerful in a society that treats people like shit, but a society which treats people well has a stronger economy, all other things being equal, than one that treats them badly.  This was, also, the result of the USSR/West competition.  (Treating people well or badly isn’t just about equality.)

Liberalism, classic and modern, believes that a properly functioning “freer” society is a more powerful society, all other things being equal.  This was, explicitly, Adam Smith’s argument.  Build a strong peacetime economy, and in wartime you will crush despotic nations into the dirt.

If you want despotism, as elites, if you want to treat everyone badly, so you personally become more powerful and rich, then, you’ve got two problems: an internal one (revolt) and an external one: war and being outcompeted by other nations elites, who will come and take away your power, one way or the other (this isn’t always violently, though it can be.)

The solution is a transnational elite, in broad agreement on the issues, who do not believe in nationalism, and who play by the same rules and ideology. If you’re all the same, if nations are just flags, if you feel more kinship for your fellow oligarchs, well then, you’re safe.  There’s still competition, to be sure, but as a class, you’re secure.

That leaves the internal problem, of revolt.  The worse you treat people, the more you’re scared of them.  The more you clamp down.  This is really, really expensive and it breaks down over generations, causing internal rot, till you can’t get the system to do anything, no matter how many levers you push.

What is being run right now is a vast experiment to see if modern technology has fixed these problems with surveillance and oppressive states.  Is it cheap enough to go full Stasi, and with that level of surveillance can you keep control over the economy, keep the levers working, make people do what you want, and not all slack off and resist passively, by only going through the motions?

The oligarchs are betting that the technology has made that change.  With the end of serious war between primary nations (enforced by nukes, among other things), with the creation of a transnational ruling class, and with the ability to scale surveillance, it may be possible to take and keep control indefinitely, and bypass the well understood problems of oligarchy and police and surveillance states.

The Logic of Surveillance

Surveillance is part of the system of control.  “The more surveillance, the more control” is the majority belief amongst the ruling elites.  Automated surveillance requires fewer “watchers”, and since the watchers cannot watch all the surveillance, long term storage increases the ability to find some “crime” anyone is guilty of.  When you add in recognition systems based on face, gait or other criteria, you have the theoretical ability to track people from the moment they leave their homes till they return.  Other measures make it possible to see what people are doing inside their own homes (IR heat maps, for example).  A world in which everyone is tracked all the time is very possible.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes

This is one of the biggest problems the current elites face: they want the smallest enforcer class possible, so as to spend surplus on other things.  The enforcer class is also insular, primarily concerned with itself (see Dorner) and is paid in large part by practical immunity to many laws and a license to abuse ordinary people.  Not being driven primarily by justice or a desire to serve the public and with a code of honor which appears to largely center around self-protection and fraternity within the enforcer class, the enforcers’ reliability is in question: they are blunt tools and their fear for themselves makes them remarkably inefficient.

Surveillance expands the reach of the enforcer class and thus of the elites.  Every camera, drone and so on reduces the number of eyes needed on the ground.  The Stasi had millions of informers; surveillance reduces that requirement and the cost of the enforcer class.

The reliance on surveillance is however a weakness, one of many.  One of the simplest ways to reduce the power and reach of the oligarchy is to destroy surveillance equipment, much of which is very easy to reach.  I have frequently said that we will know that people are becoming more serious when they start destroying surveillance equipment, when it becomes an ethical imperative to do so; ideally when people believe that blanket surveillance is an ethical wrong.

I, am, thus interested to see that the Barefoot Bandit Brigade destroying surveillance cameras.  In the US, those who oppose current elites directly seem strongest around Oakland and in the Pacific Northwest.

It is best that the surveillance system be challenged and dismantled before it becomes comprehensive; once every person is tracked all the time it will be far harder to do so, especially as audio surveillance also expands.  Once everyone is both tracked and listened to, it will be virtually impossible to organize resistance.

The comprehensive surveillance state, combined with measures to deal with the loyalty of the enforcer class, is the end game: it is where current trends lead.  It will be justified to the public as a measure to decrease crime and protect innocents (especially children), but it will lead to a more advanced Stasi state.

Note: minor edits made.

Socially how the next 20 odd years will play out

Ok, let’s get down to brass tacks.  The riots in Britain are an important event, and combined with the decision to double down on austerity they tell us a lot.  This is my baseline, loose model for the next generation.

The decision has been made by Cameron and society in general that the way to respond to the riots is to crack down, hard.  They are sentencing people to long sentences for minor crimes (a year for stealing a bottle of water) and they are extending the punishment to families, kicking people out of housing if a member of their family was arrested.  They are discussing cutting people off from social networks, and in Calfornia today the powers that be cut off cell phone service during an entirely non-violent protest.

The decision has been made to double down on repression.  To extend repression to families, a logical extension of our socieity’s obsession with family as above all else, and a very aristocratic thing to do, which reeks on the 17th century.  In terms of social media, Wikileaks was the bleeding edge of this, when Paypal, VISA and Mastercard cut off Wikileaks, despite them having been convicted of no crimes, it was clear that access to the modern economy would be held hostage for those who didn’t play the way the oligarchs wanted them to play.

Repression of this sort always spirals.  Cut-offs from the internet, from cell phone use, from specific sites, will continue to spread.  Sometimes they will be temporary and blanket.  Sometimes they will hit individuals.  Sometimes they will hit specific sites in specific areas.  Access to the modern credit economy will continue to be used as a weapon.  There will also be continued removal of the right to travel, with no-fly lists moving to trains, and later to bus stations and eventually there will be a ramp up of stops of automobiles.

This sort of stuff is easy to get around, right now, by anyone relatively bright and even slightly technologically savvy.  So there will be a renewed, and successful push towards what might be called the biometric surveillance state.   You will carry ID, your biometric data will be centrally located as well as stored on ID, and this data will be used to control what privileges you have access to (you have no rights.)

Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, throwing youngsters into prison for very minor crimes is a mistake.  It will harden them, and connect them.  This is especially true in British prisons, because British prisoners are a hardened bunch of criminals.  But it is a mistake no matter where, because in America and Britain, having ever be thrown in jail means your life is over.  Every decent job does a criminal record check, and if you have a criminal record, you will never ever have a good job again.  At that point you might as well become a criminal, and why not a revolutionary?

Which leads to the crackdown on hackers.  Throwing young, bright, technically savvy young adults in with the criminal element is, again, a mistake.  The rise of the surveillance state means that tech savvy is going to become very important to anyone who doesn’t want to live by what might be called “Society’s new rules”.  And  the young hackers have a revolutionary mindset.  The combination of men with nothing to lose, with men who have tech skills and believe society is corrupt and needs to be brought down, will be explosive.  And since the biometric security state will be done on the cheap, by the sort of incompetents who run the current wars and the current security apparatus, there will be plenty of cracks in the system to exploit.

Likewise the increase in punitive sentences is a mistake, pure and simple, because it means people have less to lose.  If a relatively minor crime gets you in for years, and destroys your life, many will make the calculation that they might as well fight, might as well use violent force, rather than be taken.

Meanwhile the ranks of the permanently unemployed will swell.  At this point companies simply don’t want to hire anyone who has been unemployed for longer than about 3 months, and have a strong preference for the currently employed. If you don’t find a new job in 3 months, you are probably never going to have a good job again.  The data is clear on this, what is also clear is that the developed world has made a hard turn for austerity, one which will do damage for years to come.  A decade is modestly optimistic.

This will increase social disorder, of course, and our lords and masters and the remnants of the middle and working class who scream “they’re criminals, pure and simple”, will double down on repression, again and again.

This is, of course, a big mistake.  It may turn into a relatively stable solution set in some countries, but they won’t be places you want to live unless you have the morals of totalitarian, and in others it will lead to revolutions, while in others it will lead to outright failed states.  We can hope that a few will turn aside from this path.  So far in Europe only one country has, Iceland.

As with most of my predictions, folks will scoff at this one, think I’m hysterical, and doom-monger, and so on.  But this is just social mechanics played out over time.  This is the glide path, it can be stopped, but it is unlikely to be.

Big Brother is Watching

Image by Vernhart

Image by Vernhart

More panopticon news raises the specter of not having any privacy left.  First America, following in Britain’s footsteps, will keep the DNA on file of people who are arrested but not convicted.

Next, Britain

The mobile calls, emails and website visits of every person in Britain will be stored for a year under sweeping new powers which came into force this month. The new powers will for the first time place a legal duty on internet providers to store private data.

What really troubles [Brighton-based investigative journalist Duncan Campbell] is the automatic numberplate recognition (ANPR) system implemented by the police across the country to track vehicle tax evaders and criminals, but also potentially to record where you’ve been. Currently it can only be accessed by the police and intelligence services, and you can’t yet do it in real time – when that moment comes, it will be truly dangerous, says Campbell.  The system does pose a threat to sources’ anonymity, agrees [David Leigh, the Guardian’s investigations editor]: if you assume that CCTV is watching any public journey, the only way left to meet is through a private journey in your car

So. Closed circuit TV (CCTV) watches everything in public transit and most public spaces in Britain, and license plate scanners track where you’re driving your private vehicle.  Anyone with access to those two databases can, in theory, track anywhere you go.

Leigh is right about real time monitoring being a threat; the other half of the threat is recognition software which is able to reliably identify individuals and scan records, whether in real time or not.  Once this occurs (and it will), combined with the ubiquitous CCTV that it is virtually everywhere in Britain and spreading in the US, from the second you step out of the door to the moment you return there will be a record of everything you’ve done in public spaces. Since most privately owned stores, malls, offices and so on tend to have CCTV,  you will basically be under surveillance everywhere you go outside your house.  Even inside your house is not completely off bounds, since shades don’t protect against infra-red and so.

Add this to the tracking everyone you phone, everyone you email, everyone you chat with and every website you visit, and there really isn’t very much that you do which governments, and any major corporation which can get access to the databases, won’t know.  If they want to track you in real time, they can do so, and there will be very little you can do to stop it.

Privacy is very swiftly becoming a thing of the past. For whatever reason, Britain has led the way (something else the wonderful Tony “middle way” Blair has to take responsibility for starting), but the new government hasn’t stopped it, and other nations are following suit, albeit at a slower pace.

Universal surveillance is the first step towards a Big Brother state.  Folks may scoff at the possibility, but as America’s founders understood, only people who don’t care about their liberties put this much power into the hands of government.  Power such as this will be used, and eventually someone will succumb to the temptation to use it to its full potential.

In the meantime, after seeing the last eight years, those who are tempted to say “but if you’ve done nothing wrong, you have nothing to fear”, might want to think again.

As for myself, my business is my business, and no business of some government bureaucrat, whether George Bush or Barack Obama is President.

Brits Attempt to Snoop On Everything And Tell Anyone

The UK is already the most surveiled society in the world, with more cameras per capita than any other country.  There’s no evidence that this reduces crime, but that isn’t stopping the government from wanting to spy even more.

Recently they’ve proposed  spying on social networking sites:

“The UK government, which is becoming increasingly Orwellian, has said that it is considering snooping on all social networking traffic including Facebook, MySpace, and bebo.

They have also attempted to bypass current privacy protections and share private info with the private sector, other governments, departments and, well, pretty much anyone:

“Clause 152 of the Coroners and Justice Bill, currently being debated by the UK Parliament, would allow any Minister by order to take from anywhere any information gathered for one purpose, and use it for any other purpose. Personal information arbitrarily used without consent or even knowledge: the very opposite of ‘Data Protection.’ An ‘Information Sharing Order’, as defined in Clause 152, would permit personal information to be trafficked and abused, not only all across government and the public sector — it would also reach into the private sector. And it would even allow transfer of information across international borders.

Fortunately public uproar made them withdraw this particular anti-privacy provision.

The UK has been leading the US and other Western nations in the march closer and closer toward surveillance states.  I hope the rejection of the sharing provisions means a reversal in trend, but I suspect it’s only a small setback to those who believe that taking away citizens’ privacy and liberty is the route to security.

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