The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

April 8th US Covid Data

The three-day rate of increase of new cases continues to drop, and the curve continues to bend.

Note that there is good reason to believe that the number of deaths are severely under-counted. For example:

As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That’s an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday.

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.

They’ve said they’ll start counting likely Covid cases as Covid, but it seems unlikely they’ll backfit data, and this is only New York.

I’d expect that the death numbers are about double (maybe more) that of the deaths we know about. One of the problems is that when Covid goes from awful to terrible, it can also make it impossible to go for help. So, if you’re on your own or only with other people with cases, don’t leave it too long.

The data from our benefactor:

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Geopolitics and the Economy After Covid-19


Sanders Drops Out


  1. jessica

    One problem with the “don’t leave it for too long” advice is hospitals often won’t take you UNTIL you have severe symptoms (trouble breathing). A medical professional told me this is true around here in Southern California. You often can’t get testing until that point either. So it’s good advice that I’m not sure one can actually practice given the actual situation with Covid and the medical system.

  2. highrpm

    bernie caves. now, bernie, pls tell us to support the party choice…..

  3. Aqua Lung

    I’d expect that the death numbers are about double, maybe more, of the deaths we know about.

    I agree. I’m not sure how much more, it could be double or even triple, but we will never know. Think how many people are dying at home, especially those who can’t afford care which are many.

    The number infected is many multiples of what has been tested and confirmed. Perhaps ten to twenty times more and maybe even more than that.

    Speaking of not being able to afford care, Bernie has conceded to Biden and therefore has conceded to Trump. Is there really any difference between the parties at this point aside from a few social wedge issues?

    Lori Lightfoot, a DNC darling for sure, was on CNN last night asserting this virus disproportionately affects blacks due to their lack of access to effective healthcare. Bernie just conceded because blacks, once again, voted against their own best interests and yet Lori and the Dems have the unmitigated gall to play the victim card during this crisis when it’s clear to everyone now, based on their most recent vote, they prefer to remain victims in perpetuity by voting for scum who keep them down in perpetuity.

    Hey Lori, if you comntract the virus, it’s not because you’re black and don’t have access to effective healthcare, it’s because of bullshit like this. You f*cking hypocrite.

    Mayor Lori Lightfoot defended getting a haircut over the weekend even though barbers and stylists were shut down under the state’s stay-at-home order, saying she’s the face of the city and the woman who cut her hair wore a mask.

    Asked about photos on social media showing her with a stylist, Lightfoot acknowledged getting a haircut, then said the public cares more about other issues.

  4. Aqua Lung

    I agree with Stoller. The most recent legislation should have suspended all debt and rent payments and it should have kept small businesses afloat by having government pay its employees salaries through this time of crisis. On top of that, it should have ensured PPE and ventilators for healthcare workers and it should have funded and implemented comprehensive testing for the virus. All of that should have been a MINIMUM. Yet, the recent legislation did NONE OF THIS and instead gave the wealthy yet another huge bonus.

    The most consequential moment for Bernie in 2020 was his choice to vote for the multi-trillion dollar corporate bailout. I don’t like saying this but Bernie’s campaign in 2020, like that of Elizabeth Warren, was a moral failure, not just an electoral one. ~ Matt Stoller

    What would Fidel say about this? What would Che say about it? What would either or both of them have done? And yet the establishment had the temerity to conflate Bernie with those two quintessential revolutionaries. As if.

  5. KT Chong

    Let me repeat again:

    Trump *OFFICIALLY* Agrees To Give Medicare For All!! (Who have COVID-19)

    Trump Announces Medicare-For-COVID:

    GOP Out-Flanks Corporate Dems AGAIN from the Left, On Single-Payer, Worker Protections:

    Mother Jones: Trump Administration Adopts Mini-Universal Health Care for COVID-19:

    Counterpuch: FLASH! Trump Just Endorsed Bernie’s Medicare-For-All Health Plan:

    RT: Isn’t that ‘Medicare for all’? Trump administration rolls out interesting plan for funding Covid-19 treatments in US :

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    A self-proclaimed progressive and socialist here, a former supporter of Tulsi/Yang/Bernie. This new development has just given me another reason to vote for Trump this November — and all Republicans on the down ballot.

    After the $1,000 emergency UBI that was first proposed by Mitt Romney, a REPUBLICAN, supported by TRUMP and other REPUBLICANS, then OPPOSED by Democrats, (because it REPUBLICANS had proposed and supported it,) but ultimately was enacted by the CARE Stimulus that gives: $1,200 + $500 per child + $600 per week, (in the form of expanded, all-inclusive unemployment benefits that practically cover anyone who is not rich — including self-employed small business owners, independent contractors and the long-term unemployed,) to all low-income and middle-income Americans…

    What the US media and Reddit have again missed — or deliberately hid: Now Republicans are out-flanking establishment Democrats, AGAIN, from the left. After Dementia Joe had said he would veto Medicare-for-All if he was the president, and now that the Democratic Party is moving towards the platform of OPPOSING single-payer universal healthcare in order to crush Bernie Sanders…

    Republicans have just used the COVID-19 opportunity to take the first experimental steps that move towards SINGLE-PAYER healthcare.

    And what’s Democrats’ solution? Let’s reopen the Obamacare insurance exchange to let uninsured people buy insurance… WHEN PEOPLE ARE OUT OF A JOB AND NO LONGER HAVE MONEY TO BUY INSURANCE. Anything BUT Medicare-for-All. NO to single-payer and universal healthcare. That is Democrats’ new platform becoming clear and obvious.

    I wager we are gonna see another big “surprise” coming in November, when Bernie has dropped out of the race and Dementia Joe is the Democratic nominee… Trump takes the opposite position of the senile grandpa: by proposing a single-payer universal healthcare, Trumpcare for all, to replace Obamacare.

    It will be the ultimate slap in Obama’s face, Trump’s ultimate insult to Obama. That is what Trump loves to do, right?

    What will Dementia Joe and the Democratic Party run on? Their only play is “Orange Man Bad!” And identity politics and wokeness. I don’t care nor buy into the Trump Derangement Syndrome. Don’t care about identity politics or being woke. If Trump and Republicans end up being the one to institute a single-payer healthcare… then Democrats can go fuck themselves, and I will vote for Trump for a THIRD TERM.

    Not what all the people in here inflicted with Trump Derangement like to hear, but that is how it is. And I can guarantee you, all the “Bernie Bros” will jump over to vote for Trump for single-payer. You can despise us as much as you want, but we vote for the policy we want, not for your “Orange Man Bad” derangement, and our votes adding to the Trump base will ultimately help him win the re-election.

  6. NR

    KT Chong:

    With Trump, as always, believe it when you see it and not before. He’s a pathological liar and chances are he’ll forget all his pledges about health care by next week, let alone next year.

  7. KT Chong


    Well, Republicans were the first to propose giving $1,000 emergency UBI to all Americans. Demcorats were quiet at first, and then they came out to OPPOSE it. (I’ve posted articles, links, and videos on that one before.)

    Now Americans are getting $1,200 UBI + $500 per child/dependent + $600 per week via unemployement (which pretty much everyone qualifies under the new rules).

    I am starting to have more and more faith in Trump and Republicans than Democrats.

    Getting outflanked by Trump and Republicans from the left on UBI. Getting outflanked from the left on Medicare-for-All. The Democratic Party has turned out to be such a HUGE disappointment and disgrace. All the Democrats are good for is playing identity politics, woke capitalism, and “let’s get rid of ICE and immigration enforcement and let everyone in!” They have truly become irrelevant.

  8. jessica

    Biden also said in the debate with Sanders he supported free treatment for Covid 19. So Trump’s position is actually no different than Biden’s. One can prefer neither and trust neither, but there is no reason to prefer Trump to Biden based on their positions. They have the exact same position.

    I’m not voting Republican on a down ballot if there even were any Republicans on the ballot :). They would have had us vote in a pandemic and might not have shut everything down. Many red states are not on lock down.

  9. nihil obstet

    When I heard that Sanders had withdrawn, I thought, “That seals Trump’s re-election.” The Democrats just basically keep saying, “We got nothing, but Trump is bad.” That will do as much for Biden as it did for Clinton.

    Trump will wipe up the floor with Biden’s boasting about trying to cut Social Security. Other Republicans will go at him about the sexual harassment accusations. I wish they’d hit him for carrying water for corporations, especially banks, but that’s probably a line too far for either party.

    Trump will promise good lefty actions, because he likes being popular and they’re popular. I don’t mind, because we need to keep saying and hearing that all of us together in government can organize these things for our mutual good. If the Democrats say no, then let the Republicans catapult the propaganda, as they say. While the Democrats may whine that Trump’s a liar, his promises will be enough to win the election. If by some fluke, the Republicans enact any of them, they will have the government for a generation, just as the Democrats did after the New Deal.

  10. anon

    I heard that paramedics in NYC were told to leave anyone who does not show signs of a pulse when they arrive to the house rather than try to revive them and send them to the hospital.. Just leave because there are so many other calls that need to be answered. That means people who have had a heart attack, stroke, or other health emergency other than COVID-19 have a much lower chance of survival than they would have had before the pandemic. Anyone who has been left to die because there aren’t enough hospital beds is a victim of COVID-19 whether they died of the virus or from another cause.

  11. KT Chong

    Another progressive channel and personality (Jimmy Dore) going “Anything BUT Blue”.

    Bernie Backs Off Medicare For All As Trump Adopts It! WTF?:

  12. Mojave Wolf

    My covid take followed by my covid related story: the curve may be flattening, but more and more healthy, not a a high risk category people keep dying.

    Meanwhile, two weeks ago, my company said they had gloves and hand sanitizer ready to distribute. They have yet to do so.

    Last night, we all got emails saying that since masks were now legally required when leaving home in the county where said company is based, we all had to start wearing them. This was followed by urging us to use cloths or clothing and a link to a YouTube video about how to make a mask.

    Not kidding.

    I’ve been asking about when does ppe get here for weeks, to the point the closest thing I have to a supervisor actually laughed at my persistence. I am a cancer survivor who has had asthma attacks in the past (which leads me to say trust me guys, suffocation us NOT how you wanna go; probably right there with burning alive), and more importantly, my wife has health issues that could put her at a greater risk.

    But at least I know they are diligently trying to acquire masks.

    We’re less at risk than hospital or grocery store workers, but still ….

    While I’m at it on this subject, anyone here do employment law? I have questions.

  13. Stirling S Newberry

    The fairyland job report is coming out.

  14. Peter VE

    You may want to read this article in the Economist

    The statistics for Bergamo show an expected death rate of roughly 20 deaths per 100,000 population per week for March, based on previous years.
    Total deaths for March 2020 are in the region of 115 per week, more than 5 times expected death rate. Deaths attributed to Covid19 are roughly 40 per week, leaving about 55 excess deaths on top of the usual rate.

  15. Astrid

    The difference may be rate of BCG immunization. It’s universal in China and rare in US and Canada.

    Though stupidity and willful ignorance may be sufficient. Too bad even without BCG, SARS2 is unlikely to cull enough idiots from the population to matter.

  16. Aqua Lung

    BCG is the new Hydroxychloroquine just as surely as orange is the new black. It’s such a Western mindset to believe one pill will cure the ailment in question.

    I agree with you about SARS2 not culling enough idiots. You’re still with us, I see, so case in point.

    I had a teleconference with my Vietnamese physician this morning and mentioned Vietnam’s reported stellar containment of the virus. He said it’s bullshit. He has spoken to several of his colleagues in Vietnam and he said there is pretty much no testing and people are exhibiting and dying from COVID-19 symptoms and it’s not being reported as such.

    There is so much lying and misinformation surrounding this virus, it’s difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. I’ve yet to see any of the major cable news networks have an expert virologist on as a guest to discuss all of this objectively & intelligently. Instead, today on Morning Joe, they had a Palm Beach County spine surgeon opining about why this virus afflicts who it afflicts. He said the younger patients who it afflicts is because of vaping. There is no proof for this assertion, it’s just his opinion stated as fact on a very influential cable news program.

  17. Astrid

    Likewise, have your family kicked you out of the house yet?

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