From our benefactor. There’s been a slight reduction in speed of increase of cases. The death rate continues to increase. I think we still have some serious undercounting going on, and in particular I think it’s a good idea to keep an eye on Florida.
The results of the work I do, like this article, are free, but food isn’t, so if you value my work, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.
Aqua Lung
It’s as though we’ve shifted to a parallel universe or another dimension — the fifth dimension because five is the number of points on a pentagram and Trump is surely the antichrist if ever there is or was such a thing. The numbers, if they can be trusted and they can’t because we all know it’s much worse than this, keep going up, up and away on Trump’s beautiful pandemic balloon.
Here’s Trump’s latest inspirational theme song for the pandemic he has made his own. He and his team look fabulous in blackface, don’t they? Enjoy.
We can fly. Oh yes we can. As our souls are released to the clouds and then the stars as though this is Pompouspeo’s long-awaited Rapture. If only he and Trump would go first. If only.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfxqQmWtGNM
Seriously, every day I wake up and think, “this can’t be happening.” But it is. Happening. And it’s going to get much worse. Much much worse. Much much much much worse. Worse than that even.
Aqua Lung
The stock market is now the depravity indicator. Perhaps it always was, but now it’s egregiously over-the-top and beyond-the-pale. As this beast of a pandemic slouches toward Bethlehem, meaning as we are well on our way to several million needless American deaths that didn’t have to be if only, the stock market is indifferent and some days sanguine even. If that’s not depravity, nothing is. The stock market celebrates death. Strike that, the stock market celebrates, relishes, murder.
metamars
Kilmeade, of the Fox morning show, was pressing Fauci on the use of hydroxychloroquine for covid-19. When he pointed out that in Spain, 72% of the doctors were prescribing it*, Fauci answered, “OK, good. OK, well, that’s fine.”
My suspicion of Fauci continues to grow. I caught some of George Webb’s live stream, today, and he was talking about connections between Fauci and the Strzoks. That didn’t help, either.
* in the context of the discussion, it appears that Kilmeade meant “prescribing it FOR covid-19”, though he didn’t explicitly say that. Of course, Fauci should have asked for clarification, but he’s not exactly interested, in any event.
Chiron
@Aqua Lung
The antichrist is Jared Kushner, I’m not kidding he is who giving orders at the White House.
Aqau Lung
Chiron, I believe it. Cushyner is either an antichrist, or he\’s an alien life form occupying a human body (what a terrible choice for a body) sent here to destroy humanity and pave the way for an alien transformation of earth. They figure the best way to go about it is to get the stupid humans to do their own dirty work of killing themselves. Here we are. Spitting out pieces of our broken lungs (I know, it\’s luck, but lungs is more appropriate and it rhymes) in the last gasps of civilization. This virus will take its Tull.
https://imgur.com/a/FuyfDk2
metamars
#KushnerIsAnIdiot
Trent
All these alternative website, that point out all the time how government is evil, corporations are evil, yet everyone has hook line and sinker accepted this. Ian my question to you, is how many times do you have to be lied to before you stop believing anything a certain source tells you? Nobody is questioning any of this data. Nobody is reporting on bailouts and further corporate consolidation. Its freaking coronavirus all the time. Ian do you know anyone personally who has this virus?
Benjamin
@metamars
Seriously? You’re pushing conspiracy theories now?
Jace
Trent,
I do. Wife’s colleague caught it on-call at the hospital. Healthy and wealthy, so will probably pull through. If my wife (immunosuppressed) or I (pulmonary sarcoidosis) catch it, we probably die.
Glib enough for you?
Jace
BlizzardOfOzzz
It’s interesting to note the Inscrutable-Oriental-Viral hysteria picked up at the same time the Russia conspiracy hoax finally collapsed for good. It was around that time that gay-with-aids media switched from saying it’s not as bad as the flu (true) to saying it’s the new black death. This time they seem to have succeeded in dragging along the a majority of the mainstream with them into a mass hysteria. 7K deaths in the US so far — not even a normal flu season let alone a bad one — and with warm weather coming the virus will die out. So what’s next? Command economy coming, presumably, to stave off the economic collapse they have deliberately and needlessly made? Will our ration of allotted daily sunshine be increased from 30 minutes to 20?
Aqua Lung
My bad. I said there wouldn’t be an effective vaccine. I was wrong. We already have a vaccine for this SARS Coronavirus Version 2. It’s the ultimate vaccine that protects all of us against all viruses and bacteria too. It’s called nuclear incineration. We incinerate ourselves and most if not all higher life on the planet thus depriving the plagues of a host.
They made sure to protect the nuclear strike force against the implications of COVID-19. No incompetency here. No criminal neglect. Rather, it’s criminal fastidiousness.
Who’s going to nuke us if this is a priority deterrent at this time versus an aggressive posture? Russia? I thought Putin was America’s friend. Surely he wouldn’t nuke America and risk a nuclear winter that would destroy the world. Same goes for China. So why, and how, could they get this right related to safeguarding against this pandemic and yet get everything else so terribly wrong including sacrificing Navy sailers? Let’s not forget, America is the ONLY nation to use nuclear weapons and it used those two nukes against largely civilian populations.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-wont-stop-donald-trump-waging-nuclear-war-140597
Trent
@JACE
I think i already had it, awful flu at the beginning of FEB. I didn’t go to the hospital, stayed at home and recovered. Based on the symptoms they’ve given the public, which could be anything. Still don’t know anyone who has “confirmed” covid-19.
Willy
BOO, that’s so Fox News three weeks ago. Trish Regan got fired already. And now she’s tweeting about unity and hope in light of “painful” and “difficult” times ahead. I’d think that’d pretty much be the definition of “labile” – the opposite of well-reasoned.
Aqua Lung
I have a nephew who works for a firm that creates and manufacturers space equipment for satellites and all manner of space travel. Get this. Amidst this pandemic, the Pentagon is speeding the development process up and this young graduate is working six days a week fourteen hours a day. The DoD is onsite checking and verifying everything and pushing this company to the point of harassment. It’s unprecedented and the timing is unnerving considering the current global crisis. They have gone so far as to issue special DoD travel status to this young graduate, my nephew, so he and his colleagues are not impeded by the pandemic. Something big & terrible is afoot. This will all end very badly, I’m afraid. Needless to say, his folks are scared shitless and he is too. It’s surreal.
Krystyn Podgajski
The genetic risk factors of surviving this virus are really fascinating to me. Gene changes in FURIN are linked to schizophrenia/Mood Disorders and slow down the action of this enzyme. The same enzyme is used by SARS COV 2 to break open once inside the cell so it can start replicating. So slower functioning of this enzyme will means slower RNA replication.
Also, being a FUT2 non-secretor will likely make one more resistant since the virus uses the ABO antigens on our cells to shuttle around the body. With FUT2 non-secretors we do not have these proteins sticking off our cells so viral infection is limited. They already know that FUT2 non-secretors are much more resistant to norovirus which is another positive RNA virus.
I have both of these SNPs and yes, I have a mood disorder. It is thought that these genes were selected during a past pandemic and only arise in 20% of European Caucasians.
Ten Bears
Back a couple of weeks ago, when all this started I shared here and there about one of my first attempts at writing scifi, pap about a worldwide pandemic only cigarette smokers survive and voila: Your Daily Chaos …
“British American Tobacco Claims COVID-19 Vaccine Close.”
In the interest of finding new uses for its cash crop, Reynolds’ parent company British American Tobacco purchased the tiny Kentucky Bioprocessing lab in early 2014 to experiment with tobacco-based cures. For its initial endeavor, the lab used tobacco plants to produce an Ebola treatment called ZMapp. Although, competitive therapies proved more effective, ZMapp did result in extending the lives of some Ebola victims.
On April 1, The Motley Fool reported British American Tobacco’s claim, “…that once fully operational, its tobacco-based production could crank out 1 million to 3 million [COVID-19] vaccine doses weekly.”
Glenn
Metamars- mortality rate in France running about 10% of diagnosed cases. The very weak evidence for that drug combination was generated in France, so there may be a bias there which is accompanying their desperation. Fauci is awaiting valid scientific data before pushing this as a panacea. This may be a reasonable combination to use, but there may be better combinations that will only be discovered through scientific research. Who should we trust over Fauci? Thanks
Zachary Smith
If site owner Mr. Ian Welsh finds himself with some free time during this time of enforced inactivity, he might want to consider updating the links on this page. Quite a few are no longer active, and some others have taken a turn for the worse. The “Pat Lang” blog is one where the owner has pretty much gone off the rails.
The old gentleman doesn’t want his hand kissed these days – he demands a firm smooch on his rear side. The mini rant above doesn’t cover all of the stuff he allows to be published there.
Trump is Great and Trump is Good, and Now We Thank Him For Our Food. Amen.
The stable genius Trump is so wonderful we ought to be prepared to sacrifice our useless Old People for glorification of the Trump Economy – and the great one’s reelection.
Retorting that Mr. Lang is in his late Seventies, and that he might consider being first in line to fall on his sword is sort of pointless. Will turning ourselves into an even crueler society than we are now be beneficial in the long run? I don’t think so.
Lang loves the purple dream of the Confederates winning the Civil War. He claims Sanders is a communist. The man might have had more virtues and fewer crazy faults in the past, but these days???
I’ve had some personal experience with the Americablog and the Archdruid Report, and have no use at all for either of them. But that’s just me.
Naked Capitalism is one of the best sites on the internet these days – no complaints about that part. Their moderation policy (assuming posts aren’t randomly trashed by a robot) simply stinks, so I happily read their stuff and scarcely ever make a remark.
DMC
Here’s a contrarian sort of take on the whole COVID-19 and statistics thing:
https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/03/the-things-you-cannot-say-about-coronavirus/
The colonel is inclined to get up on his high horse on occasion but that’s not really why you read SST. When he’s actually discussing, say, Syria, and what the hell are we doing mixed up in it, you’ll find clear and thoughtful analysis. Try Moon of Alabama for balance. They tend to agree about a great deal, as far as loathing the NeoCons, and why a more conservative/non-interventionist foriegn policy would be a good idea. They just come at it from different angles. They both utterly dismissed, for instance, the Douma “gas attack” as a transparent put-up job, pretty much within days.
metamars
@Glenn
“Metamars- mortality rate in France running about 10% of diagnosed cases. ”
Sorry to hear that, but what is the point of mentioning this?
“The very weak evidence for that drug combination was generated in France, so there may be a bias there which is accompanying their desperation. ”
Raoult, et.al. first sample size was something like 30! His subsequent paper’s sample size was something like 70, IIRC. These are VERY recent studies, so mentioning France’s mortality rate is completely irrelevant in terms of evaluating HCQ + ZPAK treatment in France. (Unless Raoult was following the pack, instead of preceding it.)
Are you not aware that doctors all over the world have been using HCQ, sometimes with ZPAK, and sometimes not?
“Fauci is awaiting valid scientific data before pushing this as a panacea. ”
Are there any “panaceas” for any conditions? I suppose some anti-biotics might qualify for specific bacterial infections, but I have to wonder why you would even mention “panacea”. Now, Dr. Vladimir Zelenko had excellent results with hundreds of patients, some only diagnosed clinically, but at leat 130 diagnosed via test. And he had zero intubations and zero deaths, IIRC. He gave HCQ + ZPAK + zinc sulfate, IN EARLY STAGES. Which is what he recommends. This doesn’t mean that he would have had such stellar results in late stages, which is what we’d expect for a “panacea”.
“This may be a reasonable combination to use, but there may be better combinations that will only be discovered through scientific research.”
That’s nice, and I’m all for looking for superior treatments. However, in the MIDST of a pandemic, where the health care system is at risk of being overwhelmed and nurses have been fired for using their own mask (which should have been supplied by their own employer), and other nurses are improvising PPE with plastic garbage bags, by the time a “superior treatment” comes along, the odds of infected, at risk individuals dying AND/OR the eonomy “dying” is far more threatening. You can look at the twitter feed of Stephen Coudrey for quotes on the adverse reaction rate of HCQ. It’s ridiculously small, a least or the heart QT slowdown effec. Now, compare that with your odds of survival if you have to be put on a ventilator…..
“Who should we trust over Fauci?”
Ah-h-h-h, how about trusting your own doctor? You can’t get this stuff, in the US, without a doctor’s prescription, anyway, and there are side-effects to watch out for.
Fauci is good at what he’s good at, but even a layman like myself can see how wacked his judgement is, in this emergency. There are tons of doctors who agree. They are voting with their “feet” – i.e., prescribing HCQ. There was a survey of hundreds of doctors I heard about just today, on one of the Fox shows, or a youtube of Dr. Oz (can’t remember which), and a plurality of doctors prefers treatment of covid-19 with HCQ. (However, it was only 30-something percent, I thik 38%; I read a tweet from an infected doctor who tried it, I thnk fter e was intubated, and it didn’t work for him. So,he moved on to remdesvir, IIRC, and is now recoverng).
From everything I’ve heard/read, HCQ + ZPAK + zinc is extremely effective in EARLY stages, which is why prohibitions on prescribing it in NY and NJ (where I live) are outrageous. (Preventing hoarding and prioritizing health care workers are legitimate, of course. So, if that’s the reason, the authorities should SAY SO, and tell us what they’re doing to get sufficient HCQ/zpak to meet any and all legitimate demand.) Cuomo is only allowing us in NY at hospitals and clinical studies.
People who want to wait around for a Fauci-blessed treatment are welcome to do so.
Eric Anderson
Krystyn:
Your comment promoted me to do some background research. I did a 23/Me a couple years back when my son was born. I’m a secretor (G/A).
Seems the findings, as you mention, are all confined to the binding potential of roto/noro viruses. These are both non enveloped viruses, and therefore, presumably bind dissimilarly to an enveloped coronavirus.
Any further insights along those lines?
bruce wilder
I went and looked at Pat Lang’s site, as well as Americablog and ecosophia, the Archdruid’s new gig.
I am not a conservative, nor am I a partisan, so I always feel a bit alienated by the thinking of temperamental conservatives as well as the smug non-thinking of political partisans. The Archdruid (is he an ex-Archdruid?) is a hoot.
I am as guilty as anyone of imagining that most “sane” people have views in common, and can’t we just get along. But that is not how thinking in societies work, and make no mistake thinking is social, an activity of culture and community. Ambivalence rulz! Prejudice prevails.
Benjamin
Pat Lang is, and his site, are…weird. They can be immensely informative and useful for things squarely in his field of expertise (military intelligence and special ops-type stuff). I’ve found his site repeatedly useful in regards to the war on Syria.
But on pretty much any subject outside of military matters he, and his commentators, are dinosaurs, and often shockingly retrograde and, yes, outright stupid. Any time any kind of social issue comes up things get downright embarrassing.
That said, Lang praising Trump for leadership ability, especially in regards to this crisis, is low even for him. Just bizarre. More evidence that stupidity isn’t all encompassing; people can be immensely wise about some things yet utter morons about others.
Also, Archdruid from what I’ve seen is just obnoxious. He’s Dunning-Kruger personified, and his walls of text are basically the exact opposite of the type of succinctness that I value so much in Welsh.
Ten Bears
I tend to view dead links in a blogroll – and I have a few – as battle scars.
Gone but not forgotten.
Ché Pasa
The government has lots of plans on the shelf for just about any crisis or emergency you could think up — and many you can’t. There is a common plan being implemented at the state and local level: social distancing, stay-at-home, school and non-essential business closures, etc. Ramping up hospital and health care capacity. It may look ad hoc and chaotic, but it is The Plan for a pandemic in action.
The White House has been well behind the curve, and part of the reason seems to be that the president and his staff don’t “know” The Plan, don’t understand it, and can’t be made to. It’s not their plan, it’s The Plan, and it doesn’t make sense to them. They aren’t invested in it because they didn’t create it, and over the last three years, they have actively thwarted key parts of it that might have cushioned or mitigated some of the tragedy taking place in the US.
Most states are implementing The Plan, but key supplies, personnel, and equipment are missing and can’t be found. The lack of medical personnel, equipment and supplies to adequately address the predicted spike in patient load was widely foreseen, and inadequate preparations were already a problem before the current regime’s cutbacks. Being unprepared for crisis is one of the hallmarks of US ruling class behavior. It’s nothing new. In this case, little or nothing can be done about it in the short term. The wheel has to be reinvented because there is little or no domestic manufacturing capability, there is no back-up supply, the needs are global, medical professionals can’t be created by 3D printers, and no amount of money or orders from On High are going to change that in the short term.
The best that can happen for the next several months at least is mitigation through the various lockdowns and palliative care for some of those in crisis.
The White House will happily accept several hundred thousand deaths and call it Victory because it could have been millions (and world-wide, it will be). It’s horrifying to think of, but it wouldn’t be much different in another administration. Triage has been underway, and who lives and who dies pretty much decided on. The old, the ill, and the poor of course will be compassionately (!) allowed to expire. That’s the easy part. The hard part is figuring out what to do about the rest. It’s gotten ugly in Italy, Spain, France, UK and elsewhere, and it will get very ugly here, as more and more must be denied care.
Other hard parts include what to do about a crashed economy, unprecedented joblessness, fragile and vulnerable supply lines, and on and on and on. This is an existential crisis for the survival of the republic and a growing proportion of the population.
There are Plans to address that, but like the health care situation, they’re not pretty.
I’m not sure the survivors will be grateful.
Krystyn Podgajski
Eric Anderson
Thanks for the interest!
One gene I am trying to find the SNPs to is ADAM17. ADAM17 makes ACE2 shed from the cell and creates soluble ACE2. Since the ACE2 is removed from the cell the virus cannot enter the cell and infect it. ADAM17 needs zinc as a cofactor. This is a large role I think zinc plays in helping limit infection. Just FYI, they are testing injecting people with Soluble ACE2 right now.
It is a crime that they are not testing everyone for zinc deficiency.
The other genes I would look at are some zinc transporters and ACE2 of course.
Another possibility would be FADS1 and FADS2 since they could affect the amount of Omega 3 in the lipids of the cell wall and possibly facilitate zinc entering the cell. But these are even more speculative than the others.
John
Some German military officers came up with a system that parallels Dunning Kruger. The polarities of clever/stupid and industrious/lazy are put on an xy axis. The best officers were considered to be those with high degrees of cleverness and laziness. The most dangerous were the industriously stupid. This link has more explanation: https://fs.blog/2013/09/why-clever-and-lazy-people-make-great-leaders/
I place both Pat Lang and the Archdruid high on the industriously stupid graph and high Dunning Kruger. They both occasionally have good insight…but only occasionally. They are also both romantic sentimentalists… another afflicting combination.
metamars
“An international poll of thousands of doctors rated the Trump-touted anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine the best treatment for the novel coronavirus.
Of the 6,227 physicians surveyed in 30 countries, 37 percent rated hydroxychloroquine the “most effective therapy” for combating the potentially deadly illness, according to the results released Thursday.
The survey, conducted by the global health care polling company Sermo, also found that 23 percent of medical professionals had prescribed the drug in the US — far less than other countries.
“Outside the US, hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the US it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients,” the survey found.”
See “Hydroxychloroquine rated ‘most effective’ coronavirus treatment, poll of doctors finds” @ nypost.com.
Whatever his many public health virtues may be, I don’t think Fauci even deserves a place at the table, when it comes to advocating for therapeutics in the here and now. He REPEATEDLY referred to reports of hydroxychloroquine efficacy as “anecdotal”, leaving the impression that they were JUST anecdotal, and not probably instructive.
bruce wilder
Ché Pasa +1
The U.S. does have a kind of vestigial layer of mid-level professional competence, which does not reach up to the top and triages the bottom. It is a bit fractured and spotty because of public disinvestment. In private business, it shows up in the organization of the gig economy and the contradictions between the remarkable achievements of an Amazon and the equally remarkable destructiveness and bad taste. It has been with us for a long time in the bland, remote-control culture of franchise businesses and Wal-Mart.
Well-observed!
Eric Anderson
Trying again, to post comment the other day without some words that may be triggering the mod.
Mandos:
You’ve noted an important consideration Ian missed — although to Ian’s credit it doesn’t neatly fit in his extended metaphor.
The edifice the elite constructed to insulate them from the rigors of policy and free them up to play court games is called the administrative state. The elite, cognizant or not, found they were decadent sock puppets devoid of the technical skills necessary to comprehend their jobs.
Enter the admin state. Too, witness the judicial deference to the administrative state’s policies under the Chevron Doctrine. The jurists are decadent elites too. The conclusion is that this country is really and truly run by the admin state bureaucrats who, if they perform competently, are pretty much lifetime appointed (See Fauci).
Now, I’d argue that these individuals are far from decadent. They are the unseen strong force binding the atom of state. This edifice malfunctions when it’s not fed the dollars needed to support it. It appears to still exist in all it’s strength, but it’s been hollowed out to nothing but a paper tiger. Now, we feel the pain.
The elites are so feckless they don’t know what a problem looks like even when it’s cocking back to bonk them in the nose. They have literally been so far from the boxing match their entire lives that they don’t know when to duck. They will continue to run their cons to enrich themselves even when the 6’5 250lbs populace is onto them and about to rattle their teeth down their throat.
Why do you think it is so natural for them to take the victim stance (with all their power) whenever somebody question their feck?
This is the pragmatic on the ground impact of Ian’s larger metaphor.
Stirling S Newberry
Krystyn Podgajski :
MAD2L1 should be checked.
Zachary Smith
metamars – https://www.ianwelsh.net/april-3rd-us-covid-19-data/#comment-112386
I have my doubts about the reliability of that SERMO outfit, and prefer to wait until some genuine trials of the miracle cure drugs are finished.
http://medicalrepublic.com.au/sermo-can-trust/2717
Trialing everything possible is a great idea though, for I suspect a good treatment regime will surface before a really useful vaccine is developed. Last year I read an old 1939 book titled “Doctor, Here’s Your Hat”. The author’s career was during the pre-antibiotic pre-sulfa-drug era, and since doctors had not yet become miracle workers, patients and their families tried everything! Once the young doctor and his mentor went out to a farm (house calls!) to find a young boy entirely covered (except for his face) in very fresh cow manure. The older man drew him aside and advised him to keep quiet – the manure wasn’t doing any actual harm, and objecting would convince the family HE wasn’t reliable.
https://openlibrary.org/books/OL14123753M/Doctor–here's_your_hat!
Stirling S Newberry
On youtube the latest talk point is that high unemployment cause deaths. This is true, but the studies they are citing don’t have a plague ravaging people. It is another attempt to reintroduce the “open the economy and let people die.” At least the talking heads realize the old people are their base.
Larry Y
COVID-19 is now the most common cause of death in NJ, https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/right-now-coronavirus-is-the-most-common-cause-of-death-in-nj.html
I know people at NYC area hospitals, and it’s very real. And young healthy people are getting very sick. One friend is a critical care pulmonologist who’s been fighting for PPE for three weeks and hasn’t seen his kids in three weeks. Another is at a NJ hospital which is on divert status.
Some of my drinking buddies who work in NYC luckily got milder cases (meaning without pneumonia), extreme fatigue aad most likened it to the worst cold or flu, and some with loss of smell and cough.
So, any skeptics out there, put your money where your mouth is and go volunteer at NYC hospital morgue. Probably don’t want your ass in the ICU.
Stirling S Newberry
I am sorry for you and your friends… NYC is a disaster area, as is Northern NJ.
Astrid
Perhaps community service in COVID19 wards or performing high exposure essential services would be a fitting penalty for those caught breaking shelter in place rules. If it is just flu and their God is going to protect them anyways, then it’s all good, amirite.
bruce wilder
Globally, 100,000 new cases in one day!
Ten Bears
Seven and a half billion people, ten in a generation, on a ball of mud that can barely sustain one. While I’d rather my friends and acquaintances did not, I really don’t have a problem with people choosing to drink bleach, or fish tank cleanser, or stick a hair dryer up their noses.