Effective tariffs are over 100% on most goods coming in from China. Everything from medicine to toys to machine and electrical parts will start running out soon. If your air conditioner or fridge breaks, the parts necessary to it may not be available. America doesn’t make these parts, and it’s endless. For example, magnets used in appliances.
So, yes, if stock up if you can.
No way of knowing how long this will go on for, and it’s worth noting that some factories in China have just shut down, period. You’d think they’d move production to other countries and some are trying, but since Trump has declared his retard trade war with entire world, and since he’s completely fickle (he just put a 100% tariff on films, claiming national security, which isn’t even allowed for films, but who knows) decision makers are reluctant to re-shore to other countries. Trump might have another one of his distempered starts and tariff them.
Anyway, even after the trade war ends, which I suspect it will, prices will be higher and supply for some products will be thin, but unless you’re an insider in a particular industry it’s hard to say which ones. Setting up production in the US takes time, sometimes years, and, again, because Trump is so fickle, hardly anyone is willing to invest. Ironically if Trump believably said “it’s going to be 100% on everyone forever”, that would in some ways be better than the current situation, since at least people could make decisions and invest.
Note also that even if the trade war ended tomorrow, the pipeline has been disrupted and there’s at least a two month gap to overcome.
So, rocky road ahead if you’re American. Stock up, strap in, and pray.
Joan
I’m struggling because in my situation it would likely be wise to have a backup computer already in hand but I can’t afford it right now.
KT Chong
Here are some historical records: Once the US put a tariff, sanction or embargo on a country, the US has almost NEVER removed it.
Only about 25 to 35% of US tariffs have been completely removed or significantly reduced. Only about 10 to 20% of US sanctions have been completely removed or significantly reduced. Less than 10% of US embargos have ever been removed. Once the US put an embargo on a country, it became a semi-permanent fixture.
If and when US removed a tariff, it took an average of 5 to 10 years after the US had initially put on the sanction. For a sanction, it took about 15 to 25 years. For an embargo, it took 15 to 30 years. The US embargo on Cuba has lasted over 60 yeras.
What the US has put on China is actually more an embargo than a sanction or tariff.
That means: most likely the US and China are effectively heading towards PERMANENT decoupling.
It is the new Cold War, and most of us will not live long enough to see it concludes or resolves.
elkern
US citizen-resident here, planning to stock up on some things soon… but which things?
Presumably, [directly] imported items will run low first. followed by things made here from imported materials, and eventually, problems caused by breakdown of machinery requiring imported replacement parts?
Food would be my highest concern, but I’m going to assume (yeah, I know) that USA will make peace with Canada and Mexico, which are by far the biggest sources of imported food. We will prolly see food prices go up (again/more), but I’m not expecting severe shortages.
I’m far more concerned about manufactured goods. I’ll stock up on clothes and shoes first, plus a bunch of doo-dads like toenail clippers ($1.79 for a set last week, made in China, of course).
So far, it looks like Trump is most intent on a full Trade War with China, thinking he can bully others into supporting us. This will work – sorta – on many countries, but some countries would be hurt more by siding with the USA (Vietnam? maybe even Japan & South Korea?)
So, my first priority would be to stock up on things made in China? Any better advice?
Ian Welsh
While I’m inclined to agree about the new Cold War, the fact is that when the effects of this trade war start hitting the US they will be devastating. In the past tariffs and sanctions were put on fewer countries (not the entire world) and the US was much stronger and industrially competitive. It could make everything it needed. Now it can’t.
The situation is very different from the past. The US has not been this weak in 190 years.
KT Chong
Actually, the US has pulled the same Hail Mary move before, once, in 1971, when the US economy was also tethering on collapse and at its weakest at the time.
The Nixon Shock: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkDXJTNcTPQ
And it worked.
This time, whether it will work or not is really up to China and Xi. China is not out of the wood yet, but it has a chance of preventing history from repeating. However, if China and Xi play it safe and continue to play by the sunk cost fallacy… then they’ll lose.
KT Chong
i.e., sunk cost = their US holdings, dollars and treasuries.
The problem is a lot of Chinese elites and officials have their personal wealth tied up in US assets and holdings. If the corruptions of self-serving selfishness trumps national interests and their nationalism/patriotism, (as it almost always does for those people,) then they screw over the country for their own interests.
Ironically, because the US has confiscated the US holdings of Russian elites and officials, the US no longer has any hold over them.
Mark Level
Not entirely O/T here . . .
So I’ve long admitted I don’t know Jack about Canada, but Due Dissidence just had a great segment on crazy Albertans demanding to secede (& drag Saskatchewan along) as apparently the Constitution allows secession following a referendum. So now I know that Alberta is crazy, oil-producing and guzzling Texas writ large.
They clip a deranged MAGAt playing the Star Wars Empire music and threatening exactly this, whinging about the revenues “stolen” from them by Ottowa . . . his wish is to join the US!! (Good luck, boyos).
It’s a pretty big gamble and I’d guess if one or both provinces do it, the government will throw up barriers as the Establishment did when Brits voted overwhelmingly for Brexit (futilely in the end). And just imagine the unexpected consequences . . .
If Ian’s interested they generally do 3+ hour shows, but they will clip the segment separately by tomorrow on the YTube.
Ian Welsh
During the Nixon shock, all the US was short on was oil. At that time it still had its industrial base, and could make essentially everything it needed.
This time is very different, and so far China is not letting up. Their position is “remove the tariffs first, then we’ll talk. Chinese elites may not like it much, but Xi appears to have them thoroughly whipped, and there is a lot of pride involved as well.
This is the moment when China gets to become the most powerful nation in the world, in a way no one can deny.
BlizzardOfOzzz
Don’t worry guys, we’ll power the economy with the mother of all renewable resources: libtard wailing.
different clue
Some of the First Nations within the present day borders of present day Alberta have been warning Alberta against holding such a referendum.
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/no-right-talking-the-way-she-is-alberta-first-nations-chiefs-united-after-emergency-meeting-denouncing-separation-talks
https://www.yukon-news.com/national-news/alberta-first-nations-say-separation-a-direct-violation-of-treaty-7984482
https://globalnews.ca/news/11161788/first-nations-alberta-saskatchewan-vow-oppose-alberta-separation/
someofparts
Backlash from the public will probably be severe, so stock up on popcorn, the news will be interesting.
GrimJim
Who had “Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan” on their Bingo card for 2025?
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attack-kashmir-tourists-intl-hnk
Now, if we had anything resembling a State Department left, they’d be working overtime to help fix this… but right now, I’m sure all they are doing is offering India assistance provided they first sell Trump the Taj Mahal for his next Trump Tower…