The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: February 2020

“Construction of Reality” First Draft Sent to Editor

The stretch goal in 2016 was a booklet, “Construction of Reality” (CoR) about how, as individuals, groups, and societies, we create reality.

The first draft is done, 58,887 words and has been sent to an editor. This is more than I expected and more than planned.

I apologize to 2016 donors and subscribers, this took way longer than I intended. Part of that is that I’d never written a book before, part of it is that the topic was more difficult than I expected (especially to write CoR without it feeling like a textbook), and part of it is that my health was trash, but the fact remains you’ve waited a long time and will wait a bit more. I’m sorry about that.

(As an aside, my health has radically improved in the last three months. What finally did the trick was a 100 day “juice cleanse.” I did it because someone suggested it, and I’d tried everything else. Didn’t expect it to work, but it did. I’m not 100 percent, but the improvement is huge.)

Back on topic, when the book comes out will depend on whether the editor thinks it’s the sort of book that the publishers would be interested in. This has little do with quality, it’s a judgement about how they perceive it will sell. If so, it’ll be at least another year, if not, you should see it sooner.

“How To Think,” which I promised in last year’s fundraiser will not take nearly so long. Though not an easy topic, it’s a lot easier than how we construct reality. I’m a lot healthier, and I’ve written a book now, and know better what I’m doing. (Blogging, article, and essay skills translate poorly.)

I do think you’ll find “Construction of Reality” (CoR) to be worth the wait. One advantage of the long writing time is that I’m able to be fairly objective about it. Contrary to what non-writers think, writers usually aren’t happy with their books when they’ve just finished them (and at various stages I wasn’t), but I am with CoR. Almost no one, myself included, can claim unique ideas, but the synthesis of ideas in CoR is unlike any book I’ve read.

One reason writing CoR took so long is that I stopped, threw out most of what I had and restarted because I wanted you to receive a book which was actually useful, not a dry tome, however accurate. I think and hope this book will be something which will actually make some readers’ lives better. (Not all, no one can write that book!)

I’m looking forward to sharing CoR with you.


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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 9, 2019

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

Altruistic food sharing behavior by human infants after a hunger manipulation
[Science, via Naked Capitalism 2-5-20]

From the abstract: “In a nonverbal test, 19-month-old human infants repeatedly and spontaneously transferred high-value, nutritious natural food to a stranger (Experiment 1) and more critically, did so after an experimental manipulation that imposed a feeding delay (Experiment 2), which increased their own motivation to eat the food. Social experience variables moderated the expression of this infant altruistic behavior, suggesting malleability.” dk asks: “But were the test subjects the babies of elites? At 19 months, some patterns may have already been acquired…”

The Carnage of Establishment Neoliberal Economics

WEALTH INEQUALITY: The richest 1% controls more wealth now than at any time in more than 50 years
[Twitter and Yourtube below, via Naked Capitalism 2-2-20]

WEALTH INEQUALITY: The richest 1% controls more wealth now than at any time in more than 50 years. But what does wealth inequality really look like?

@TonyDokoupil  turned America’s economic pie into a real one and asked people a simple question: Who gets what? Link here if pic missing below

Higher social class predicts increased unethical behavior

Open Thread

As usual, feel free to use the comments to this post to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. This week, that means almost anything unrelated to the Democratic primaries.

Iowa Caucuses: Incompetent or, *cough,* “Not Cheating?”

Since this is STILL going on, let’s lay out the basics.

Somehow, almost every “error” has worked against Bernie.

Buttigieg’s campaign gave the app company over $40k. The app company is called Shadow. Shadow’s parent company is called Acronym. Acronym’s CEO is Buttigieg’s advisor’s wife and also his communications director’s sister–in-law.

Now we have Perez, the chief of the DNC, saying there may have to be a re-do, just as the satellite caucuses, made up mostly of minorities and working class people, put Sanders over the top and give him the victory

When the errors are almost all against a single candidate, and never seem to benefit that same candidate, is it “coincidence” and “incompetence?”

Nor need we pretend that malign intention and incompetence are incompatible. As the old Bush, Jr. regime joke ran: “Evil or stupid? Why not both!”

The funny thing is, it’s hard to see Buttigieg’s path to the nomination, let alone the presidency. For all of this, *cough* not-cheating, he has no meaningful support in any other state. His only way through is by a brokered convention that throws the nomination to someone who isn’t likely to even be in the top three. If that was done, it would be rightly seen as a huge abnegation of democracy, and he would be crushed in the general.

So he’s not-cheating for what? He’s not even going to make #2 overall, which means he won’t be the presumptive nominee next time.

Now, of course, the Democratic operative class, of which everyone who’s been involved–whether incompetent, not-cheating, or both–is a member, is scared of Sanders. Not because they really don’t believe in his policies (though they don’t), but because, unlike Warren, the next most “left” candidate, all indications are he won’t hire them for his administration.

They make their living by being connected, and Sanders is going to cut them out. He’s actually an existential threat to their right to be incompetent, lose a lot, and still make tons of money.

Oh.

Right, so that’s why it’s worth pulling out all the stops.


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Who Is More Competent? The Democrat Establishment or the Sanders Campaign?

Bernie Sanders

So, one talking point being spun out is that Bernie’s people aren’t competent enough to run government because their expertise lies in winning primaries.

This is a prime example of the flailing that occurs when an establishment is scared of losing power (and when your billionaire boss is being crushed).

First, everyone who gets into power has, as a primary competence, the ability to get into power. There aren’t a lot of slots at the top, especially not in the Senate or the Presidency. If you got there, you have something on the ball. People don’t like to admit it about people they hate, but even Trump was shockingly competent at campaigning.

Second, after the Democratic party couldn’t build an app that worked to handle the Iowa caucus results AND the Sanders campaign could, well, perhaps it’s the outsider who’s competent?

There is a larger question here, about who will run the Sanders administration.

Outsiders, mostly. People who are competent and angry. Class traitors, who have worked inside the system, hated it, and want to smash and rebuild it.

The sort of people who ran FDR’s administration: People who can’t take the bullshit any more and want the government to actually work, and actually work for the people.

There will be teething problems, especially with those who have not been high-ranked in government before, but they will manage it–because it actually matters to them. It isn’t just about a paycheck.

Further, the damage Trump has done to the the bureaucracy will be more of an advantage than a bad thing in a Sanders administration. All that “draining the swamp” will make it easier to rebuild in the way Sanders want to, and it will reduce deep state resistance.

Because if you think the deep state hates Trump, well you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Hopefully, Sanders will be willing to use the power of the Presidency and remove deep state saboteurs.

But overall, while it’s possible he could botch it, I’m not super-worried about Bernie’s ability to run apparatus. The US has been sick for a long time, but there are tons of angry competent people who are itching to set it right. He just has to pick them, let them run, and if they blow it too often, replace them. (This is what FDR did).

Don’t be too fixed on methods, be fixated on outcomes. If one thing doesn’t work, have the next plan already teed up.

It’s not easy, but it’s not rocket surgery, anyway.

And I imagine the Bernie administration, unlike the Obama one, will be able to build a healthcare web site if they have four years in which to do it.


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Iowa Caucus

It’s today. It’d be a big deal if Bernie won it, and the polls show him leading.

Last week was Sanders week here at the blog.

There was a post by Pachacutec on Sanders’ Theory of Change and how he can get his platform through if he’s President.

There was a post on why I think Sanders is the best candidate.

There was a post on the characteristics of the sort of people supporting each of the candidates–from Warren to Sanders, to Biden to Buttigieg.

And there was a post on why the most important thing in a candidate is what they want to do, and why that means Sanders is superior

Feel free to use comments to this thread to discuss the Iowa caucuses and the primary in general.


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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 2, 2019

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 2, 2019
by Tony Wikrent
Economics Action Group, North Carolina Democratic Party Progressive Caucus

Strategic Political Economy

“Minimum wage would be $33 today if it grew like Wall Street bonuses have” 
[CBS, via Naked Capitalism 1-30-20]

“Wall Street employees saw their typical annual bonus slip
by 17 percent last year to $153,700, according to new data from the New
York State Comptroller. But don’t feel sorry for the banking set just
yet — even including down years like 2018, bankers’ bonuses have jumped
by 1,000 percent since 1985. By comparison, the federal minimum wage has
increased about 116 percent during the same period, according to an analysis
from the Institute for Policy Studies, a left-leaning research center
that used the comptroller’s latest data. If the minimum wage had grown
at the same pace as Wall Street bonuses, fast-food workers and other
low-wage workers would earn a baseline wage of $33.51 an hour, the group
said.”

The Carnage of Establishment Neoliberal Economics

Open Thread

As usual, feel free to use the comments of this post to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

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