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Yellen tells American Industry not to produce jobs or good wages

2014 July 16
by Ian Welsh

There is no other way to read this:

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said U.S. labor markets are far from healthy and signaled the Fed will keep monetary policy loose until hiring and wage data show the effects of the financial crisis are “completely gone.”

Look, why would those who hire people want easy money to go away?  They don’t.  So if giving people good wages and employment will mean the Fed tightening, they have every incentive not to do so.

The actual way to do it is to say “this policy is not working.  If it does not show progress, we will cancel it.”

If what you wanted was high wages and low actual unemployment.

Which isn’t what Yellen wants.

Why Bookstores live or die

2014 July 10
by Ian Welsh

In my experience, this is why they live, if they do:

Munro has since bought the building, which Walker described as an astute move that has provided various options for managing its future.

Bookstores almost always fail not because of e-books, but because of rent increases.  This is true of a lot of interesting, marginal businesses, especially in cities with housing bubbles (and Victoria is not cheap.)  Prices go out of line with income, rents follow, and interesting stores which need low rent die. So you wind up with a whole bunch of chain stores or boutiques operations selling overpriced goods and services who can make the rent.

I shopped at Munro’s many times over the years, as an aside, since my parents lived in Victoria during their retirement, and my grandmother in hers.  A great bookstore, with a good selection, knowledgeable and friendly staff.

But all those things aren’t enough when the rent goes up, and rent is set, in effect, by the value of the lot of land if turned into overpriced condos.

In general bubbles are bad for everyone who isn’t in on the bubble.  If you are winning, they’re great, but the people who don’t participate are screwed.

And bookstores are, somehow, never participants.

Drive enough similar business out, because they can’t make the rent, and soon the great neighbourhood you moved into isn’t, it’s an overpriced condo hell of glass and concrete and soulless chain stores.


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A Transcript of Abu Bakr’s Speech

2014 July 6
tags:
by Ian Welsh

Can be found here.

It’s an interesting document, and worth reading yourself.  Contrary to media intimations of evil, and raving, it’s a pretty sane document.

I’ll highlight this bit:

Terrorism is to refuse humiliation, subjugation, and subordination [to the kuffār – infidels]. Terrorism is for the Muslim to live as a Muslim, honorably with might and freedom. Terrorism is to insist upon your rights and not give them up.

But terrorism does not include the killing of Muslims in Burma and the burning of their homes. Terrorism does not include the dismembering and disemboweling of the Muslims in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Kashmir. Terrorism does not include the killing of Muslims in the Caucasus and expelling them from their lands. Terrorism does not include making mass graves for the Muslims in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the slaughtering of their children. Terrorism does not include the destruction of Muslims’ homes in Palestine, the seizing of their lands, and the violation and desecration of their sanctuaries and families.

Terrorism does not include the burning of masājid in Egypt, the destruction of the Muslims’ homes there, the rape of their chaste women, and the oppression of the mujahidin in the Sinai Peninsula and elsewhere. Terrorism does not include the extreme torture and degradation of Muslims in East Turkistan and Iran [by the rāfidah], as well as preventing them from receiving their most basic rights. Terrorism does not include the filling of prisons everywhere with Muslim captives. Terrorism does not include the waging of war against chastity and hijab (Muslim women’s clothing) in France and Tunis. It does not include the propagation of betrayal, prostitution, and adultery.

It sort of speaks for itself, in the “you call me a monster?  Look in the fucking mirror” vein that is rather hard to argue against when your leaders have just invaded multiple countries on flimsy pretext leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands, minimum and the creation of millions of refugees, the vast majority of whom just happen to be Muslim. And when the leader of the “free” world brags about how great he is at killing, while he force feeds men who, in many cases, haven’t been convicted of a damn thing.

I despise everything ISIS stands for.  But it’s simply impossible to defend what the West has been doing to Muslims for the past 20 years, or to note that ISIS doesn’t exist as a force worth worrying about with George Bush’s illegal invasion of the Middle East.

You look back to the 50s and 60s, to Iraq and Iran, and you see states trying to be democratic, whose version of Islam is mild and moderating; whose women are becoming more and more free and educated (the same is generally true of Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Pakistan goes really off the rails when it starts being used as a throughfare for arms and money to Afghan Mujahadin.)

Prosperity, and democracy, and hope of a better future.  A belief in truly universal human rights, and that Muslims get to have elections and keep the results of them too.  Or that if they have democratic elections and do manage to keep the results (Iran), that they won’t be enbargoed so their children die due to lack of medicine.

If you won’t offer people freedom and prosperity and autonomy; if you won’t respect their democratic decision-making, why would you be surprised if, after bombing them into the ground, they become unpleasant people?  They are only learning the lessons you have taught them, that might makes right, that there are no “human rights” that apply to Muslims which aren’t bought at the end of a gun (perhaps there aren’t any for anyone, but there certainly aren’t for Muslims.)

Abu Bakr is Bush and Blair’s love child. He is the the great grandchild of the CIA spooks who overthrew democratic elections in the middle East.  He is the step-child of the Egyptian police state, which has proved over and over again that Islamists can”t take power peacefully, because the people with guns won’t allow it.  He is the grandchild of Madeline Albright, who throught that half a million Iraqi children were “worth it.”

An evil man, to be sure, Abu Bakr. But a man who does not exist absent the great and extended efforts of men who were, judged by the number of dead and wounded and dispossessed, even more evil than he.


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The Ubiquity and Importance of Operant Conditioning

2014 July 4
by Ian Welsh

As you may know, dogs salivate when presented with food.

A man named Pavlov used to ring a bell when he fed his dogs.

Then he stopped presenting food, and just rang the bell: the dogs salivated, even though no food was present.

The dogs had been conditioned.

Behavioralism, the psychology of operant conditioning, famously did not deal with the contents of our minds: only with behavior.

This was a mistake, not just because the content of our minds matter, but because operant conditioning can explain a lot of mental activity.

In my childhood there was an advertising jingle which ran as follows “butter tastes better, naturally.”

Almost 40 years later, when I see butter or even think about butter, odds are high that jingle will run through my mind.

Conditioning can be very mild, and work.  Simply repeat the same two words together often enough, and most people will think the second word when they hear the first one.  Give people story scripts “the princess, the square jawed hero, the dark hero, the sage” and they will fill in the lines without you having to tell them, which is why most of us are so very good at figuring out the plots of stories.

To this day, certain smells remind me of my grandmother.  Because I loved my grandmother, and because she gave me the best couple years of my childhood in her house on the beach, those smells are good ones for me, even if “dry old lady wearing rose-water” isn’t a good smell for other people, it is for me.

Call these triggers: upon seeing something, thinking about something, smelling something,  hearing a word or phrase used, or sme we are likely to trigger some specific responses ourselves.  We need not even necessarily remember the original operant conditioning: mental patients who have lost all long term memory, still form associations.  Likewise events in our childhood, long forgotten, can leave triggers.

Some conditining is mild: the jingle with pleasing music, the constant repitition of words together to create associations, the standard tropes of the heroes journey tapping into the universal human need to fit the world into story structures.

Others are primal, they become attached to fear or terror; to pain or lust; to love or hate; to a sense of belonging or to the human horror of being outcast from the group and the shame which comes with it.

Whatever causes your first strong sexual arousal will condition you strongly; the first time that you have fear that makes the world turn into a tunnel and your ears roar will brand you.  But day to day fears can do you in, too: scurrying around to avoid the feral neighbourhood dog-pack.  Words you can’t say without mom or dad getting angry, or sad, or drinking.  Words that if your parents say them mean you’re in for it.  Acting gay, or nerdy, or whatever else will get you ostracized from your peer group.  You can gain these conditions without even consciously realizing it, avoiding what you see causes others to get ostracized or beaten up.

This conditioning extends right down to the level of thought.  When I need to move quickly, I think certain predetermined thoughts “ass-gear-go”.  When I need to clean up, others “Shit/shower/shave”, when I listen to certain songs I start writing stories about certain characters in my head.  When I see an oak tree, I think of a story my father told me about oak trees.  And once the thoughts start flowing, certain throughts trigger other thoughts in very conditioned rotes. This is especially noticeable to me in fields I’m familiar with: start me on what money is, say, and the journey is tediously familiar: but start me anywhere on various economic subjects and I’ll loop to the others in time and in predicable ways.

Much of what we think we are has been conditioned, often by events we don’t manage or in ways we don’t consider conditioning.  Most of our complex of assocations, of triggers, or positive and negative attachments was not consciously chosen, but is state dependent on our start position (who our parents were, where we born) and to what amounts to random chance. Combined with our genetic endowment, this determines our personality.

When you think of it this way, or experience it (through meditation or certain types of psychotherapy), you start to disconnect from your thoughts, your habits, even your personality as who you are, because you can see that there are millions of different “yous” that could have occurred with different events.  And you ask, “if I’m not my thoughts, who am I?’

There are a few great mysteries of life.  “Why is there anything?”  “If anything, why this?  And, “what is consciousness.”  Do thoughts make us conscious?  Or is it that which apprehends the thoughts which is consciousness?

Some Lessons of Meditation

2014 June 30
by Ian Welsh

I’ve meditated, on and off, for years.  The last couple months I meditated intensely.  Five hours a day average. as much as 10 hours a day on occasion.

Meditation has a “woo” reputation, an idea that it’s peaceful and serene and lovely.  Now maybe that’s where you’re aiming to get, but meditation is a tool, a process, and it is hard bloody work and often unpleasant.

In general, in meditation, you’re trying to detach from your thoughts.  To stop identifying with thoughts as yourself. You don’t exist because you think.  Your thoughts are witnessed by something that is close to you.

As you detach from your thoughts a few things become clear: most of what you think is repetitive.  You have a number of loops, a pile of triggers and you run through them incessantly. You think in cliches (for you); you think other people’s thoughts, and you rarely think anything you haven’t thought before.

What this means is that you don’t, actually, think very much. You have thoughts but they are almost entirely event and loop driven, and not under conscious control.  One reason, as you meditate, that you come to desire less thoughts is that you becoming achingly aware that most of what you think is tediously, boringly repetitive.

As your thoughts die down, you find out that many of them were defense mechanism. Absent thoughts to occupy it, your mind hones in your fears, your lusts, the stuff you fear the most; the stuff you desire but find shameful: all of that comes to the fore.  Sexually explicit imagery (this is common, not just me) with completely inappropriate objects, terrifying fears you had buried; hatreds you thought you had gotten over years ago; trauma that was only half healed.

Meditation gives you a good hard look at your mental habit and fixations, and you probably won’t like what you see.

Meditation is, thus, hard.  A friend of mine who is an enlightened guru of “recognized lineage” says that when people come to him, interested, he tells them to meditate for an hour a day for six months: the minimum requirement for the lifestyle.  Almost no one does.

The thing is that if you face what meditation brings up, go through it, and learn to not care or judge, it loses its powers.  The fears, the lusts, the hates pale, and rust and blow away.  The repetitive thoughts slow (and for some, go away completely), and if you engage in them, you tend to do so consciously, rather than unconsciously.

The fixations, the chatter, stops commanding you nearly so much.  You gain a certain amount of mental freedom: to think about what you want to think about, or nothing at all.  To truly put down the traumas of the past.  To look clearly at lusts and desires and decide to act on them or not, but not care much either way.

But it’s hard work, and it hurts, and that’s why most people don’t get very far with it.

Oh, there are types of meditation which avoid the hard work for a time: chant mantras, for example, and keep your mind constantly occupied, and you can avoid your demons.  But generally, still the mind, and your ring-fencing thoughts die away then your demons step through the gaps and face you with yourself.


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Israel

2014 June 30
by Ian Welsh

1) Israel is a settler state.

2) Israeli land was, mostly, taken from other people, by force.

3) Thus the vast majority of Israelis live on land taken by force from the indigs.

4) The “settlers”,are simply the leading edge of taking land and destroying homes, by force, from the indigs.

5) Israel is, also, a religious ethnic state where you only have the full rights of citizenship if you are of the correct religion.

If you are a believer in modern secular democracy, it is hard to see any solution for the Israel/Palestine issue which is not a single state solution.  Give everyone in Palestine full citizenship rights, including the right to vote.

It happened in South Africa. It may happen in Palestine.  If it doesn’t, the other routes out are uglier: full-on ethnic cleansing, or a loss by Israel of its “Jewish legal identity” in war (no, their nukes won’t protect them.)

America isnt’ going to be able or willing to support Israel’s colonial ambitions forever.

None of this is to say that Israel’s crimes are unique.  Conquering indigs and taking their land is old-hat. Those of us who live in North America are lucky—our genocide was long over before most of us were born, and much of it was done by germs.  We keep the few remaining indigs largely on reservations, where they live in squalid 3rd world conditions, far from the sight of their conquerers.  Israelis live right on top of those they are conquering, and have to become indifferent at best or monsters who regard Palestinians as sub-human at worst, in order to function.  After all, the Palestinians are still right there, in their face, daring to look like humans who some mother loved.

“The weak do what they must, the powerful what they will” – Thucydides.  And the Palestinians are weak.  And the Israelis are still (comparatively) strong.

They won’t be forever, however.  When they aren’t, they should worry that they will reap as they have sowed.

Have Sanction Threats Brought Russia to Heel?

2014 June 26
by Ian Welsh

Russia has ended its claim to a right to protect Russians in the Ukraine.  Putin has supported the cease-fire.  And America and Germany have continued to threaten Russia with sanctions if the rebels in the Eastern Ukraine don’t lay down their arms.

In related news, the Supreme Court ruled against Argentina on its debt default, stating they must pay investors who did not take the deal offered by Argentina to pay part of their debt, not the whole.

These are related because of the payment system: Argentina can’t pay one set of investors (those who took the deal) except by using the payment system, which runs through New York. So they either default on everyone, or they have to pay the hold-outs.  But if they pay the hold-outs, those who took the deal will have been screwed, and Argentina’s sovereignty will be a joke.

As long as the US in particular, and the West in general controls the world payment system, they can inflict crippling sanctions on any country they choose.

Russia and China, and the BRIICS in general have made a huge mistake in not setting up their own, alternate payment system.  The Chinese have taken steps, but only steps.  Until there is an alternate payment system, no country except the US is truly sovereign.

Of course Putin may be playing for time, and he may still get what he wants: a federalized Ukraine (though, clearly, the Ukraine won’t join his customs union.)  And as IMF and EU austerity destroys the Ukraine, Russia may have another chance to pull the Ukraine back into its sphere.

Likewise, I imagine the Russians have learned this lesson: that they are not sovereign, and that they must arrange an independent payments system.

 

Stirling Newberry on Post-America

2014 June 23
by Ian Welsh

Stirling is writing again, and this is an important, though very long piece, touching on ancient history, dating of events, climate change and much more.

This is an age of post-. We talk of ourselves in terms of our weights from the past, and in terms that show we are not really after a cataclysmic change, but, instead, before one. People look back most when there is a large stretch of years that seem to imply an order to the world, and a stability. Our present is defined not by what we hope for, but by how we justify a position of wealth and privilege which we are no longer earning, but are determined to keep. At the same time, what we are post- is a rent, and the burden of that rent is strangling us, as a polity, as a society, as a country, and as humanity in general. The cost of the privilege, feels heavier, than the lift it provides.
Go, read.

Matters of Character

2014 June 19
tags:
by Ian Welsh

Over the past year I’ve written a large number of pieces on ideology, and quite a few have been about character: how it is created by experience, and how specific types of character (like sociopathy) are selected for amongst our leadership classes.

Let’s spell this out:

1) Character (personality), determines how people act.

2) While part of character is clearly genetic, much of it is a matter of our experiences.  Different experiences create different types of character.  As a simple thought exercise, you would be a very different person if you had been born five hundred years ago in, say, Central Africa, than you are today.

3) As children our primary experience is of school.  We are a very schooled society, with the upper classes starting school at age 5 or so, and continuing into their mid twenties.  Twenty years of schooling is not uncommon.  Fifteen to sixteen is completely normal.

4) This schooling takes place when we are forming much of our character: when we are most susceptible to having our character changed.

5) In addition to this we are influenced by media of various kinds (including books); our parents, and our peer group.

6) Different time periods form different characters, as do different nations, because people born in those times and places have different experiences.  The more synchronized events are, as Newberry has noted, the stronger this is.  In a mass media society with relatively fast technological and social change it makes sense to speak of generations.  The character of people born 20 or 30 years apart in modern societies will be different, and within cohorts similar experiences will tend to create somewhat similar patterns of character.

7) Society is nothing except people and their creations and interactions over time.  Walk down an old neighbourhood one day, and look at the buildings, the road, the trees and think about all the people who made everything you see, and all the people behind those people.  Read the laws, and know that people made those, and enforce those.

8 ) Because society is just people, past and present, the nature of society is formed by our character.

9) If we want a different society, then, we must deal with matters of character.

10) Because we should be leery of engaging in eugenics, for reasons which should be obvious, changing society involves changing character through changing our lived experiences.

11) Everyone’s character matters, but some people’s character matters more than others.  The more power someone has, whether that power comes from political position, charisma, force or money, the more their character matters.

12) Leaders inform the character of people.  People tend to act up, or down, to their leadership.

13) Money is permission.  The more money you have, the more you get to decide what other people do.  This can be directly through hiring them, or indirectly by buying the products of other people’s time.  As the market society has spread to more and more of our lives, what we do is what gets paid for.

14) Who we give money to, and be clear that what banks, government and financial institutions do is decide who gets money, and what they get to spend it on, determines much of the lived experience of adults, and indeed of children outside school, and with the rise of for-profit schooling, inside school.

15) Money positions are of three main types.  Elected (taxes); officers (CEOs and so on who control a lot of money that isn’t theirs); actually rich (the money is their own.)

16) In all 3 cases who gets that money is a social choice.  Billionaires are a social choice, created by government policy including tax policy, and the entire structure of how profits are booked.  Multi-millionaire CEOs are a social choice, created by tax and other laws as well as social norms.  And politicians are a social choice, especially in a democracy, but even in autocracies, though in such societies few people’s active and passive consent is needed.

17) If we select for positions of power, whether monetary, political or charismatic, people whose character is such that they do not insist on good outcomes for the majority of people, then those outcomes will occur only by chance, if the happenstance of technology and environment aligns in what amounts to random fashion. Having not been planned; having not been understood; any such prosperity and freedom will not last.

18) If society is just us, and is a matter of our character combined with environment and technology, then we must consciously choose what we want our character to be.  If we look at how we raise children and see that it is not creating the sort of people required for a happy, free, healthy and prosperous society, then we need to change how we rear children.  This is a social decision, not an individual one: we can choose a different type of learning (not necessarily schooling); we can choose a different type of media; we can choose to encourage different types of parenting (parenting styles have changed massively over the last 100 years, more than once.)

19) We can also change how we select our leaders, both political and economic; who we give money too, and for what purpose.  We already do, who makes money is a social choice, embedded in our tax code, laws (like “IP”), and monetary system.  We can make other choices and create a system where people make money because they do good, not because they do evil (see “bankers”).

20) We can change our adult experience of the world, and when we change how goods and services are distributed (note that I did not use the word “money”), we will change our experience of the world, and in so doing we will change our character.

21) We can do so even if our current character is flawed.  The politicians who ended Jim Crow were themselves mostly racists.  They were racists who knew that racism was wrong. It is possible to look at one’s own character and know that it is simply a product of experience: to say “I am racist and sexist but I still know that is wrong.”  It is possible to be involved in corruption (Kennedy Sr., the first SEC chairman) and decide to help clean it up: to end it.  It is possible to have all the accoutrements of privilege (FDR) and turn around and change society mostly for the better.

We are all products of our time and place.  We are all products of our parents and our experiences; millions of small events which shaped our character, for good, for ill, for kicks.

All of us (except maybe a few enlightened sages.)

The full realization of how shaped we are is one of the watersheds of any voyage worth having. If you cannot look at yourself, and see how shaped you were, then you are trapped by those experiences, an even more limited and fine being than  you need to be.

Once, however, you see the shaping; feel it, know it, and acknowledge it, why then you are not free, you only have the potential to be more free, to change what you are and who you are, both individually, and as a group.

Character matters.  It is destiny.  Change your character, change your destiny.  Change the character of nations; change their destiny.

Change the character of humanity; change our destiny.


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Developments in Iraq

2014 June 18
by Ian Welsh

1) An official says that three-quarters of the largest refinery in Iraq, in Baiji, has fallen to ISIS.  Maliki claims otherwise.  I’ll believe Maliki when there’s independent confirmation.

2) The Kurds have moved some troops into ISIS’s way.  How committed they are to defending Baghdad remains to be seen.  It’s unclear if they will.  The talk I constantly hear from Iraqi Shia is how they want to gt revenge against the Kurds for cooperating with the Americans.  So—do they help in hopes of ratcheting down the enmity, or do they say “not our problem, given we know you hate us?”  Personally, if were them I’d have a chat with Al-Sistani, along the lines of “if we do, we will you use your influence to make sure we do get credit?”

3) Iran has said that they will intervene to stop destruction of Shia holy sites.

4) Saudi Arabia has warned that “outside powers” (aka, Iran) should not intervene.  After all, ISIS are their proxies.

The problem here, to my mind, is that the status quo has to end even if ISIS is defeated (and I don’t expect it to be allowed to take Baghdad.)  By which I mean, Maliki has to go.  He couldn’t create an army which would fight, and that disqualifies him from his job even leaving aside his other failures.  Perhaps Iraq should just be split up into three areas.  Perhaps a new unit government should be created. I don’t, frankly, know.  I don’t know enough about Iraq’s internal politics.  What I do know, though, is that the current government is a failure.

(Edit: 5) It seems the US official policy is now that they won’t help unless Maliki steps down.  I am amused.)