The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

One of the silver linings of the State tax crisis

is that for the first time in 38 years the state prison population has dropped:

Professor Chris Uggen, at Public Criminology, summarizes the causes identified by the report:

Pew attributes the drop to greater diversion of low-level offenders and probation and parole violators from prison; stronger community supervision and re-entry programs; and, a quicker release of low-risk inmates who complete risk reduction programs. State budget problems have likely played an important role in accelerating each of these trends.

The decrease is certainly better than an increase, but Uggen notes that it is quite small.  The prison population dropped by only 0.4%, or 5,739 inmates.  Further, the decrease in the state prison population was outpaced by the increase in the federal prison population, which went up by 6, 838 inmates.  Even so, Uggen argues, this is significant: “…any change in direction is meaningful after four

I’d go further and say it was definitely caused by the economic crisis.  Suddenly locking up dark people and non-violent drug offenders doesn’t seem like such a good use of money. One can hope that this will continue.

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4 Comments

  1. David H

    PEW lists a hell of a lot of causes for a .4% drop. Seems like it could just as easily be someone forgot to carry the one, so to speak.

  2. Tom Hickey

    Suddenly locking up dark people and non-violent drug offenders doesn’t seem like such a good use of money. One can hope that this will continue.

    I suspect that this will not happen in conservative states. They will cut social programs instead. Locking dark people up or deporting them is part and parcel of the conservative mindset that wants to “take our (white) country back.”

  3. Jay

    I would expect conservative states to respond to this revenue problem by focusing more on extracting value from prisoners, by cutting expenditures for food, clothing, shelter, and counseling for inmates, as well as expanding forced labor.

    As life gets harder for ordinary Americans, more and more people are coming to resent the fact that American prisons are not as hellish as they could be. I expect our prisons to abandon the pretense of being civilized institutions aimed at rehabilitation and become something akin to Stalinist gulags.

  4. beowulf

    The most optimistic reason would be, maybe state officials have read Mark Kleiman’s book. :o)
    http://whenbruteforcefails.com/

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