Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: Trump Impeachment

Why Impeachment Has No Traction

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On December 2, 2019

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There is a right way, and a reason to do things, and a wrong way and reason to do things.

Democrats are impeaching Trump for the wrong thing, in the wrong way.

As a result, polls show virtually no movement in support for impeaching him or effect on his approval ratings.

Why?

Because they are impeaching him to protect the Democratic front-runner. Trump has done many bad things, starting with being a walking emoluments violation. The Democrats did nothing until he went after Joe Biden pressuring the Ukrainian government while Joe Biden’s son Hunter had a position on the board of a Ukrainian company he had zero qualifications for, except for being Joe Biden’s son.

Joe and Hunter Biden may have done nothing illegal, but they were involved in corruption, and anyone with sense can see it. Legal and right aren’t the same thing, just as illegal and wrong aren’t identical.

So the Democrats are going to the wall, not to protect Americans, but to protect Joe Biden, Democrat, and his son, who are, at the least, involved in unethical, but legal, corruption.

Yeah, Trump blackmailing the Ukrainians to get dirt on an opposition figure is wrong, but Hunter Biden didn’t have to take a job for which he wasn’t qualified and which he had to know he was getting only because Ukrainians wanted to pander to his very powerful father.

An impeachment based on hitting Trump with all the things he’s done illegally, starting with emoluments (remember that Jimmy Carter had to sell his peanut farm to be President, where Trump hasn’t even put his assets and companies in trust), would have been going after Trump for the right reasons.

It would also have allowed an endless parade of clearly corrupt activity, rather than what looks to ordinary people like Trump using the office for partisan political ends, which is gross, but a lot less gross.

Impeachment, done right, for the right reasons, was a virtually sure winner, in the sense that it would harm Trump.

But when you do the right thing for the wrong reason in the wrong way, people see it for what it is, and you lose a lot of the benefit.

Bottom line is that Pelosi never seemed to really care about Trump being corrupt, or about him hurting ordinary Americans. But the moment he goes after Biden, well, she goes for him. She’s acting as nothing but a partisan, and as such, why should Americans care?

Do the right thing, the right way, for the right reasons. Not everyone will notice or care, but enough people will–enough to matter.

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Hunter Biden’s Corruption

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On October 1, 2019

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So, this has been covered, but is worth emphasizing:

Let’s start with Hunter Biden. In April 2014, he became a director of Burisma, the largest natural-gas producer in Ukraine. He had no prior experience in the gas industry, nor with Ukrainian regulatory affairs, his ostensible purview at Burisma. He did have one priceless qualification: His unique position as the son of the vice president of the United States, newborn Ukraine’s most crucial ally.

Pretty clear. It may not be illegal, but it is corrupt influence-peddling.

Lots of people get upset at me for saying the problem with Biden, Sr., and many others, is how they prioritize family…

Recently, Hunter Biden told The New Yorker that “the decisions that I made were the right decisions for my family and for me.”

Yeah. Self-dealing and making sure your family is rich, even though they have no qualifications, is exactly corruption. Exactly.

This family worship among public servants, politicians, and even corporate officers has to end. When you’re in a position of trust, your salary and your self is all that your family should get out of it. Not a cushy goddamn job for which they are in no way qualified.

This stuff is rampant in DC and elsewhere. A ton of corruption is semi-hidden. The politician doesn’t seem to take a lot of money, but their husband or wife, or their kids and their friends, well, they’re well taken care of.

This is a large part of how routine “in-office” corruption happens. After office, of course, those who play the game are given low, seven figure salaries, but before that, they wash it through the family.

Give me bachelors and spinsters every day. Give me people estranged from their families.

Your family love is your biz, but should have nothing to do with your public service.

And because corporations have the rights they do because they are supposed to be acting in the public interest, that applies to corporations as well.

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Pelosi Moves to Impeach Trump

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On September 24, 2019

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Nancy Pelosi

This is a good thing. Trump’s done more than one thing that was illegal and impeachment-worthy.

It is interesting and amusing that what finally got her to do something was to attack Biden–someone she knows well–rather than all the crimes against people she doesn’t care about, but if that’s what it takes, so be it.

Impeachment, done properly, is about using the power of the House to control the narrative and build the case. It was not popular when it started against Nixon; it was the impeachment hearings themselves that made the case.

One hopes that Pelosi and her team will take this into account, and showcase Trump’s various misdeeds properly. One also hopes they will stop playing patty-cake with Trump officials and use Congress’s powers of inherent contempt on those who refuse to testify, or who lie.

Of course, Trump will not be convicted. But he can easily be damaged, and his ability to enact his policies can be crippled. Clinton’s impeachment attempt was followed by two Republican presidential terms.

It will be interesting to see if Pelosi has any ability to follow blood in the water.

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Why Republicans Are Unlikely To Impeach Trump

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On June 6, 2018

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This is why the bar for impeachment is so high.

In Alabama, GOP voters delivered a rebuke to incumbent Rep. Martha Roby, who is headed for a runoff against former congressman Bobby Bright — whom Roby defeated in 2010 when Bright held office as a Democrat.

Roby angered constituents by un-endorsing then-candidate Donald Trump after the 2016 release of the “Access Hollywood” tape in which he bragged about groping women. In TV ads, Bright accused Roby of “[turning] her back on President Trump when he needed her the most.”

The Access Hollywood tape was the “grab them by the pussy” tape.

The base supports Trump. You have to get past the base in primaries to be a candidate in the general. This is why the fact that Democratic primary voters are basically ok with Democrats makes change from the left hard: they did mostly vote for Hillary, Bernie’s won independents.

The right did take over the Republican party, and they did it by winning primaries. Every recent attempt by the left to do the same in the Democratic party has failed.

Trump has very consistently acted to frame Mueller’s investigation as partisan, so that whether to impeach him becomes a political decision. In any Congress where Republicans have enough votes to stop impeachment, it will be very hard for Republicans to vote to impeach Trump: doing so will mean a serious primary challenge they may well lose.

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