The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: ISIS

The burning of the Jordanian pilot

I’m with Robb on this.  It’s barbaric and no one should be burned alive.  I also strongly believe in good POW treatment (though, obviously, ISIS is not a party to the Geneva conventions.)

But pilots are more hated than virtually anyone.  They kill and maim (and often burn people to death) and they do it with what seems like complete impunity.  The Afghans used to throw Soviet pilots to the women, and, well, you don’t really want to think about what happened to them.

Pilots aren’t given sidearms to kill the enemy with if they are shot down.  They’re given sidearms to kill themselves.

The Kipling rule applies: always save the last bullet, for yourself.


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Obama’s Speech on War with the Islamic State

Let’s just quickly point out the obvious: air power only works if you have effective ground troops backing it up, or your enemy is easily dissuaded from war by losses of infrastructure. Otherwise it wrecks great destruction, and does little more.

To put it simply, this strategy will certainly help those fighting the IS, but it won’t make that big a difference, and it isn’t new, it’s what the US has been doing for some time.  Failure to coordinate with Syria is a mistake, and the only people in the region who have significant numbers of troops capable of defeating the IS are Iran and Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is unlikely to move large numbers of troops into Syria out of fear of Israel attacking them, and there is no assurance Obama can give them of that not happening, because America answers to Israel, not Israel to America.

Meanwhile the US is still giving arms to so-called moderates like the FSA, which wind up in the hands of ISIL.  The Peshmerga have proved largely incapable, though they are more willing to fight than the pathetic Iraqi army, and the IS is filling up with ex-Baathists: very capable soldiers.

The alliance is also laughable: Turkey has been funneling weapons to the Syrian opposition for some time and Saudi Arabia is the spiritual home of the form of Wahhabism the IS believes in.  That said, I do believe that the Saudi royal family is soiling themselves over the IS, because their ideology requires them to overthrow the corrupt rulers of Saudi Arabia and conquer Mecca as part of their caliphate.  The Saudi royal family deserves nothing more, this is an exact result of their pushing Wahabbism as the ideology of Jihad for decades.

And so it goes.  Obama hasn’t managed to fight a war yet that didn’t destabilize multiple countries.  I wouldn’t expect this to be any different.


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Belief

The rise of the ISA is a demonstration of the simple principle Napoleon once summarized as “The moral is to the physical as ten is to one.”

We have seen this for years, and the lesson is never learned by the West.

People who believe in what they’re fighting for, who are willing to both kill AND die are far better soldiers (and pretty much everything else) than those who aren’t.

This has been demonstrated, over and over again.  The Chinese in Korea, the Vietnamese, Afghanistan, Hezbollah.

Moreover endless low-grade war is moronic.  I once noted that Hezbollah was the perfect Darwinian organization; it had learned all the lessons Israel had taught.  It was used to fighting while outgunned and outnumbered.  It learned when not to use modern communications, to operate as a secret state, and so on, from Israel.

The modern form of electronic and surveillance warfare that the US practices is all very nice, and it is powerful, but the US and its proxies have been at war with the Islamic world for decades  The West, basically, does not learn. Its militaries are not getting better (though many will claim they are), except in terms of equipment.

The militaries of those who fight the West, on the other hand, are improving by leaps and bounds.  They move fast, give power to local commanders, isolate and destroy enemies, and regularly surprise their foes.  The ISA, to an extraordinary degree, chooses where to fight and when.  Of course they are winning.  The only people in the Middle East who are almost certainly the ISA troops equal are Hezbollah (and I would expect, their betters.  We’ll find out.)

When you fight wars as a superior power, you want to make them quick, over and out.  An America which invaded Irak, stayed in Baghdad for only two months, and installed the Colonel of its choice as the new leader would still be a US which terrified the Islamic world.

The ISA, I suspect, has another great advantage over the militaries it faces.

It doesn’t use much in the way of electronic communication (those commanders who do, get dead.)  This means that once units are given orders, the local commanders are free to execute those orders as they see fit, rather than being micromanaged by generals in the rear line.  No single person, or even staff, can react as quickly as the commanders on the ground can, or as appropriately.

The sheer stupid of Israel, of America, of the West is stunning to behold.  “Here, let us teach you how to beat us by engaging you in years of inconclusive warfare.”

The correct policy, from a hegemonic point-of-view (not what I would prefer), is to let them have their governments, let their elites rule, and if they get out of hand, knock them over.  Maintain the fear.  Let them get a bit soft and fat, let them have something to lose.

Failure to do this, and coddling of Saudi Arabian Wahhabism, has led to the rise of a truly barbaric form of militant Islam, which also happens to be startling effective on the battlefield.

Don’t teach people how to actually fight you.  Don’t support barbaric regimes like Saudi Arabia’s in exporting their loathsome ideology.  If you’re going to be an imperialist, learn how to actually play the game.


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It seems the Kurds had to retreat because they ran out of ammo

No, really.

Maybe instead of giving weapons and ammo and money to the Iraqi army so they can abandon it on the field to ISIS (now calling themselves the Islamic State), the US should be supplying the Kurds, who will actually fight.

Just a thought.

As for Iraq, the government policy of trying to fiscally strangle the Kurds is coming back to bite them,hard.  If they’d let the Kurds sell some oil, the Kurds might be holding ground.

I’m sure the supply situation will change. Once it does, there’ll be a real test of the Kurds ability to defeat ISIS.  They’ve taken two towns back with American air support, but they will have to do far more to defeat ISIS.

I suspect part of the problem here is that others who could help, like Iran, Syria, and Turkey are not doing so, since they all have Kurdish minorities and rather like the idea of Kurdistan being defeated and Kurds being slaughtered.

That’s a big mistake.  The Islamic State is far more dangerous to them than the Kurds ever were.


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A Transcript of Abu Bakr’s Speech

Can be found here.

It’s an interesting document, and worth reading yourself.  Contrary to media intimations of evil, and raving, it’s a pretty sane document.

I’ll highlight this bit:

Terrorism is to refuse humiliation, subjugation, and subordination [to the kuffār – infidels]. Terrorism is for the Muslim to live as a Muslim, honorably with might and freedom. Terrorism is to insist upon your rights and not give them up.

But terrorism does not include the killing of Muslims in Burma and the burning of their homes. Terrorism does not include the dismembering and disemboweling of the Muslims in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Kashmir. Terrorism does not include the killing of Muslims in the Caucasus and expelling them from their lands. Terrorism does not include making mass graves for the Muslims in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the slaughtering of their children. Terrorism does not include the destruction of Muslims’ homes in Palestine, the seizing of their lands, and the violation and desecration of their sanctuaries and families.

Terrorism does not include the burning of masājid in Egypt, the destruction of the Muslims’ homes there, the rape of their chaste women, and the oppression of the mujahidin in the Sinai Peninsula and elsewhere. Terrorism does not include the extreme torture and degradation of Muslims in East Turkistan and Iran [by the rāfidah], as well as preventing them from receiving their most basic rights. Terrorism does not include the filling of prisons everywhere with Muslim captives. Terrorism does not include the waging of war against chastity and hijab (Muslim women’s clothing) in France and Tunis. It does not include the propagation of betrayal, prostitution, and adultery.

It sort of speaks for itself, in the “you call me a monster?  Look in the fucking mirror” vein that is rather hard to argue against when your leaders have just invaded multiple countries on flimsy pretext leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands, minimum and the creation of millions of refugees, the vast majority of whom just happen to be Muslim. And when the leader of the “free” world brags about how great he is at killing, while he force feeds men who, in many cases, haven’t been convicted of a damn thing.

I despise everything ISIS stands for.  But it’s simply impossible to defend what the West has been doing to Muslims for the past 20 years, or to note that ISIS doesn’t exist as a force worth worrying about with George Bush’s illegal invasion of the Middle East.

You look back to the 50s and 60s, to Iraq and Iran, and you see states trying to be democratic, whose version of Islam is mild and moderating; whose women are becoming more and more free and educated (the same is generally true of Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Pakistan goes really off the rails when it starts being used as a throughfare for arms and money to Afghan Mujahadin.)

Prosperity, and democracy, and hope of a better future.  A belief in truly universal human rights, and that Muslims get to have elections and keep the results of them too.  Or that if they have democratic elections and do manage to keep the results (Iran), that they won’t be enbargoed so their children die due to lack of medicine.

If you won’t offer people freedom and prosperity and autonomy; if you won’t respect their democratic decision-making, why would you be surprised if, after bombing them into the ground, they become unpleasant people?  They are only learning the lessons you have taught them, that might makes right, that there are no “human rights” that apply to Muslims which aren’t bought at the end of a gun (perhaps there aren’t any for anyone, but there certainly aren’t for Muslims.)

Abu Bakr is Bush and Blair’s love child. He is the the great grandchild of the CIA spooks who overthrew democratic elections in the middle East.  He is the step-child of the Egyptian police state, which has proved over and over again that Islamists can”t take power peacefully, because the people with guns won’t allow it.  He is the grandchild of Madeline Albright, who throught that half a million Iraqi children were “worth it.”

An evil man, to be sure, Abu Bakr. But a man who does not exist absent the great and extended efforts of men who were, judged by the number of dead and wounded and dispossessed, even more evil than he.


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Al-Sistani calls on followers to fight ISIS

As I said, ISIS will be defeated, if at all, by Shia militias and/or Peshmerga.  That doesn’t mean they’ll retake Mosul, it means they will stop ISIS’s advance.

Heeding the call to arms by Ayatollah Sistani, Shiite volunteers rushed to the front lines, reinforcing defenses of the holy city of Samarra 70 miles north of Baghdad, and helping thwart attacks by Sunni fighters of the radical Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in some smaller cities to the east.

The Iraqi army is worthless.  It will not fight.  Any attempt to use it for more than bombardment, only strengthens ISIS, as it captures the army’s equipment.  The army should just hand any equipment which doesn’t take a lot of training to use over to the militias. (Yes, I know it won’t, and I know why.)

The West Should Just Stop Intervening

Half a Million Flee Mosul according to estimates.  Reading through, there is some fear of ISIS and there is some fear of the fighting in general: which is wise, because the government’s only likely response is to either call out other militias (who can actually fight, unlike the army) or to use air power.  Indiscriminate bombing, as in Fallujah, isn’t good for civilians.  A lot of people fled because they saw others fleeing.  But the lesson of Syria (and pretty much every other war) is this: you don’t want to be caught in a disputed city.

However, many others have been happy to see ISIS conquer Mosul, and are rallying to it. 

The bottom line here is that the Iraqi army collapsed: it did not fight.

Some people want the US to go back in.  That is a mistake.  The Iraqi government was never likely to survive on its own, as constituted, any more than the Afghan government will survive the American pullout.  The Iraqi government was artificial, without an actual power based which believed in it enough to fight for it.  The same is true, again, in Afghanistan.

You can only keep such tools in power by main, external, force.  If you go back into Iraq, you can’t leave because America is incapable of setting up a government which will be able to maintain control: people will not fight and die for the sort of deeply corrupt thugs that America today always puts in charge.

ISIS is a deeply problematic organization, as is the Taliban, but here’s what they have going for them: they believe and they’re willing to fight and die.

The situation in Iraq will be determined on the ground, by those people willing fight and die: the Kurds, ISIS, various non ISIS aligned Sunni militias, and the Shia militias.  It will be determined by Iran, who is the only country which could intervene and maintain the peace otherwise.

If the US chooses not to accept this, not to allow this to play out, it will be stuck in Iraq for another ten years, and during that time Iraq will stay destabilized and more and more people will die

There are no good options here, but whatever solution is come to, it must be determined by people who have a real stake in the area, who are willing to fight and die for their beliefs. Only they can impose a peace.  There’s a very good chance that it will be a very ugly peace, much like the Taliban imposed in Afghanistan.

So be it.  I don’t like it, but there are NO other solutions which are better.  American intervention again is not a better option.

If you want to support someone on the ground, support to the Shi-ite militias.  They and the Peshmergas, are the ones who will defeat ISIS, if ISIS is defeated.  Forget the government, it’s failed. It failed on day one, because it could never keep the peace because no one believed in it.

And stop aiding the insurgents in Syria.  Again, this is a cost of the Syrian intervention.  ISIS is LOSING to the Syrian forces and Hezbollah and has, in part, been pushed into Iraq.  The other reason for them going into Iraq is to cut the Iranian supply lines to Syria and Hezbollah (something the West has no problem with.)

The West must stop intervening in other parts of the world.  Getting rid of Qaddafi destabilized not just Libya, but two others.  Attacking Afghanistan has destabilized Pakistan. The.  Stop. It. The West doesn’t know how to do it successfully. It always makes things worse.  Don’t intervene militarily and stop intervening covertly, as in Ukraine.

Just stop.


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When the terrorists treat you better than the government

How ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant) appears to be acting in Mosul, after taking it from the Iraqi government.

Many facebook statuses and tweets then started documenting Mosul post-capture, in a surprising twist to usual media narratives on ISIS’s politics in sieged cities. Reports that only army vehicles and headquarters were burnt and destroyed, but barricades that once adorned every street were removed, and for the first time as one facebook user claims “ I managed to drive freely in my city”. Other residents also claimed that the armed groups were helping young men patrol and protect their neighbourhoods from any possible looting, and were active in protecting banks, abandoned homes and roads.

Interesting testimonials from several residents in Mosul which clash with the main narrative circulated in Media that the city is in fact in more danger than it used to be. Several political analysts on Iraqi non-governmental TV channels claimed that this ‘dignified treatment of civilians’ is something they are pleasantly surprised with and also prefer to what they described as a continuous dehumanisation and humiliation of the Iraqi Army in checkpoints around the city. This could be very much understood as sectarian bias against the army,  but it also serves as an indication that the armed-groups are indeed not targeting civilians in the city (yet).

When people prefer ISIS to you, you might be doing something wrong.

 

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