The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Britain

The Establishment Is Losing Control: Britain Shows Us Change Is Possible

The Guardian is widely considered a left-wing newspaper:

Guardian cover says Labor Lost Because Not Right Wing Enough

Guardian Cover Shot

When the election results first became clear, I pointed out that Thatcher’s real victory was not the policies she had put in place or the changes she had made to the UK, it was that the main opposition party had become neo-liberal as well. This meant that her project would continue, no matter who was elected.

Neo-liberalism is successful because it is the only alternative to itself; there is no other option but neo-liberalism. Of course, you can choose between flavors of neo-liberalism (“How fast should we do this project?”, “How cruel should we be to poor people?”, and “How quickly should we divest the public sector and the population of their income and wealth and give it to the rich?”), but all you’re choosing between is how quickly the neo-liberal project (which includes austerity as  its logical late form) will proceed.

Other than the process of how actual material circumstances turn into ideology, which then turns into action, nothing is as important as controlling the acceptable matrix of options.

What the Guardian is doing here is attempting to make sure that in response to its loss, Labor becomes even more right-wing, even more dedicated to neo-liberalism. One can equally and easily make the case that Labor was not left wing enough, and that’s why Scotland went SNP (which was more left-wing than Labor); and that’s why left-wing voters didn’t turn out to vote. But that’s not what The Guardian has chosen to do. The Guardian chose to put, on their front page, the assertion that Labor lost because it was not right-wing enough.

Note that most people read only headlines and that the most important headline is the one on the front page. Yes, The Guardian has published articles suggesting that labor wasn’t right-wing, but most people will never read those articles. In “journalism,” as in real estate, the three most important things are location, location, and location.

Do not think that The Guardian’s editors do not know this, or do not understand the consequences of what they are doing. This is their business, and they are good at their business. The conclusion which should be drawn, absent strong evidence otherwise, is that if they are taking an action likely to push Labor right, they know they are doing it, and they want to do it or they wouldn’t do it.  (Since, again, writing the opposite article would be easy enough.)

Now note that this system is breaking down on the peripheries. The Scots voted for the SNP, which was very left-wing by current standards. Albertans recently voted for the Canadian New Democratic Party, the most left-wing party in Canada, which the establishment never thought stood a chance of winning, and which ran on (among other things) increasing the corporate tax rate.

These are glimmers: sparks and little more. But they and the rise of other third parties, including ones I would argue are failing (like Syriza), indicate that the establishment is losing control of the democratic process; their framing is not sufficient.

Given an opportunity to vote for what appears to be a real alternative to the status quo (as opposed to a fake alternative like Labor under Millibrand), many people are starting to do so. This isn’t limited to the left-wing, mind you. UKIP, the anti-immigrant, essentially-fascist party in the UK got over 10 percent of the vote.

In Scotland’s independence referendum, the young voted for independence–it was the pensioner class that kept Scotland in the union.

The winds are shifting, and opportunities are arising. Many people in the core nations know that their lives are getting worse, and they are looking for political options to change that. Note that many of them aren’t that fussy–as in the 1930s, this doesn’t have to head towards anything good. A man on horseback who promises jobs and security and to stop bailing out bankers could easily take power in many countries.

Nor is the time quite here yet for major change, I think. Give it five to ten years, for simple demographic reasons. The new generations must rise, the old generations must get older, and in many cases, die, in order for change to be possible beyond the margins.

Nothing lasts forever: no regime, no form of government, no ideology. Neo-liberalism has gone from middle-aged to old, but still clings to power with an iron gauntlet. But concealed beneath that gauntlet is a shaky hand.

The time is soon. The young, even most of the middle-aged, will see it. Whether that time leads to a better world, or a worse one, is yet to be determined. Pick your sides.


If you enjoyed this article, and want me to write more, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.


Conservatives Appear to Have Won in the UK: What the Left Should Do

Or so the exit polls are showing.  A likely bare majority government.

The consequences of this are likely to be severe; I would expect most of the remains of the post-war welfare state to be swept away.

I am torn between two reactions:

  • Although this is only a bare majority government, people did vote for Conservatives enough for them to get in and it’s not like they didn’t know the consequences. They have had years of Tory austerity. As H.L. Mencken once said: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it, good and hard.”
  • On the other hand, Labour under Miliband ran as Tory Lite; as the lesser evil. Voters tend not to be inspired by the “not quite as bad as the other bloke, but they’ll get in eventually and do what they were going to do anyway.” And that was his platform.

I’m seeing a lot of despair from my British friends on the left. And my British friends on the sane, for that matter. Here’s what to do: Either take over the Labour Party, or, if you think that’s impossible, pile into the Greens. Or, heck, create a new party.

I will point to Alberta, where the left-most party in Canada won on a platform of, among other things, raising taxes.  They came, essentially, from nowhere.

Want to win from the left? Be left-wing. Offer a real alternative to neo-liberalism.

I note, also, that Scots may really be regretting not voting for independence. Most of the wonderful social policies Scots value more than the English will now be taken away from them.

Failure of courage when there is a real alternative will reap the expected results.

This is all very sad, but the post-war welfare state has been under assault in England since Maggie Thatcher’s election in the 1970s. The true magnitude of Thatcher’s victory was not her policies, it was that Labour became Tory Lite; she changed the acceptable policy matrix for not just the Conservatives, but for the main opposition party as well.

Until that “acceptable policy window” changes, the trend will continue right–it cannot do anything else. Each Labour interregnum will be just that, a period in which neo-liberal policies are pursued at a slower rate than during Conservative governments, but in which the trend is not reversed.

This is true in almost every country in the West of which I can think (Iceland and perhaps Finland being the lone exceptions).

Offer a real alternative, with real left wing policies. If you can’t capture an existing major party, pile into a minor party or create a new one.


If you enjoyed this article, and want me to write more, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.

The UK is a Propaganda Society

People cannot make correct decisions if they believe lies:

In May 2013 the reputable polling company ComRes asked a representative sample of the British public the following question: “How many Iraqis, both combatants and civilians, do you think have died as a consequence of the war that began in Iraq in 2003?”

According to 59% of the respondents, fewer than 10,000 Iraqis died as a result of the war.

This is similar to the fact that on the eve of the Iraq war, 70% of Americans thought that Saddam was involved in 9/11.

The information problem, that people believe what they hear repeated, and the way it interacts with our media system is another problem we’re going to have to tackle if we want a long cycle of prosperity after this cycle ends.

1984 Was Not A Manual

But the people running England, or at least London, certainly think it is.  CCTV cameras are everywhere you go, in large numbers.  On one Underground  platform today I counted 13.  Of course, with that many CCTV cameras there is no way they can actually effectively be monitored in real time, so they prevent crime only by threat of being caught later, and thus have no preventative effect that I can see against anyone who doesn’t care (like, say, suicide bombers).

But, of course, if you have nothing to hide, I’m sure you don’t mind the government recording everything you do, eh?

Oh, and men with submachineguns at Parliament?  Don’t make me feel safer, quite the reverse.  But, of course, they aren’t meant to make me or any other ordinary person feel safe, just like Britain’s government policies aren’t intended to make ordinary people more prosperous.

Other than that, very much enjoying London.  Cool Britannia’s days may be numbered, but it ain’t quite dead yet.

What would Turkey’s NATO allies do in the case of a Turkish/Israeli throwdown?

The general assumption has been that if push comes to shove between Israel and Turkey, that NATO allies will not support Turkey, and that the US will supply Israel, but not supply Turkey.

I wonder if those two things are both true.

It’s interesting to note that Britain, normally a staunch Israeli ally, in response to the attack on the aid flotilla in international waters called for an end to the Gaza blockade.  As with both Turkey and Israel’s actions, one imagines this may be driven by domestic political concerns.  To put it simply, Britain has a lot more Muslim citizens than Jewish ones, and England’s Jewish residents tend to be liberal and unlikely to become radicalized and blow things up.  Electorally, helping Palestinians may be a winner.

In the US, AIPAC and the Jewish lobby are generally considered amongst America’s strongest lobbies.  But it’s worth putting in perspective—when George Bush senior tackled AIPAC, he crushed them.  The vast majority of likely Democratic voters aren’t that sympathetic to Israel.  And to mess with Israel, all Obama has to do is stop protecting it at the UN, which is completely under his control, and not preferentially ship supplies to Israel in the case of a crisis, something which is also 100% inside the executive’s purview.

Obama has been snippy with the Israelis in the past, as when new settlements were announced during vice-President Biden’s visit.  While it’s hard to read Obama, I think it’s clear that he hasn’t appreciated the way Israel has taken the US’s support for granted.

And hey, changing the conversation from the BP oil spill can only be good.

I also don’t think it’s clear that Israel can use its nukes on Turkey without any other nuclear power threatening retaliation.  Glassing a major metropolis is not something likely to make Britain, the US or France happy.  In the US the idea of using nukes seems to occasion something of a yawn, but in the rest of the world it is the ultimate taboo.

Likewise, I’m not entirely sure that if Israel attacks Turkey’s military vessels in support of what may soon be considered an illegal blockade of Gaza, that other NATO nations won’t back Turkey up if it responds with a naval blockade of its own.  In particular, I’m not sure that the new British government comes in on Israel’s side, nor am I sure France does.  And either of those nations is more than capable of slapping Israel around if Israel gets too big for its britches.

Israel’s been pissing off its friends for a long time now.  This particular attack seems to have been done for domestic political reasons, and was a deliberate flouting of international law, a slap in the face “you won’t do anything about this, we can do whatever we want.”

Works, until it doesn’t.  I don’t know if Israel has crossed the line, but I think it may have.  For Britain, in particular, to come out with a statement calling for the end of the Gaza blockade is not a small thing.

All of which is a long way of saying, I’m not so sure the US, and particularly Britain, will automatically support Israel in any confrontation with Turkey.

Nice country you have there, be a shame if anything happened to it

is the title of an email a friend sent to me about the threats made by Britain and the Netherlands to Iceland, when Iceland’s President refused to ratify a bill which would have required Iceland to pay 5.5 billion US to the Netherlands and Britain.  When Iceland’s banks failed, Britain and the Netherlands made up the deposits, and now they want Iceland to pay.  If Iceland doesn’t, they have threatened to spike both its entry to the European Union and its 10 billion dollar aid package from the IMF.

The President’s decision means there must be a referendum to determine the fate of the bill.  A lot of folks are decrying this and insisting that Iceland should pay, but the background and the consequences aren’t that simple.

First, by European law, only the first 20K of each account is covered.  Iceland already passed a bill in which they agreed to pay that back, and that bill was not vetoed.  England and the Netherlands insisted that they cover all of the money, not just the amount legally required.

Second, Iceland is a small country,with a population of 316,960.  That isn’t even as large as most Canadian suburbs.  The cost per citizen, including children, people out of work, and seniors, would be $17,352.  Given Iceland is in complete economic collapse, that is a massive burden they simply can’t afford.

Third, the banks were essentially unregulated.  Britain, yes Britain, gave them licenses to operate despite the fact that other European nations lobbyed against it.  Given how lightly regulated British banks were, this means that Icelandic banks were being used by the City (London) to do things too dubious even for the City.  And given what the City was (and is) willing to do, that means they were black holes. You put your money in a country like Iceland where the banks are set up for those sort of unregulated operations, you take your bloody chances.  The old saying “you can’t cheat an honest man” applies.  The depositors wanted largely unregulated earnings.  In exchange they need to accept the risk that comes with it.

Fourth, a fifth of the population had signed a petition asking the President to block the law and force a referendum.  Responding to that is democracy.

Fifth: the corporations are limited liability corporations.  Are countries responsibility for all the debts of limited liability corporations in their country?  I don’t think so.

Britain and the Netherlands are extorting money with what amounts to threats to turn Iceland into a third world country where people may well starve to death.  They are doing so to bail out depositors who were greedy or stupid enough, or both, to be put money into banks set up precisely because they were doing stuff too risky even for London to do and which are limited liability companies.

After Gordon Brown used anti-terrorism laws to seize Icelandic assets, this is a further descent into thuggery and blackmail and those who say that Icelanders should pay it all off should think very carefully if they want their country to be forced to pay off all its private companies debts to foreigners.

For shame.

Brits Attempt to Snoop On Everything And Tell Anyone

The UK is already the most surveiled society in the world, with more cameras per capita than any other country.  There’s no evidence that this reduces crime, but that isn’t stopping the government from wanting to spy even more.

Recently they’ve proposed  spying on social networking sites:

“The UK government, which is becoming increasingly Orwellian, has said that it is considering snooping on all social networking traffic including Facebook, MySpace, and bebo.

They have also attempted to bypass current privacy protections and share private info with the private sector, other governments, departments and, well, pretty much anyone:

“Clause 152 of the Coroners and Justice Bill, currently being debated by the UK Parliament, would allow any Minister by order to take from anywhere any information gathered for one purpose, and use it for any other purpose. Personal information arbitrarily used without consent or even knowledge: the very opposite of ‘Data Protection.’ An ‘Information Sharing Order’, as defined in Clause 152, would permit personal information to be trafficked and abused, not only all across government and the public sector — it would also reach into the private sector. And it would even allow transfer of information across international borders.

Fortunately public uproar made them withdraw this particular anti-privacy provision.

The UK has been leading the US and other Western nations in the march closer and closer toward surveillance states.  I hope the rejection of the sharing provisions means a reversal in trend, but I suspect it’s only a small setback to those who believe that taking away citizens’ privacy and liberty is the route to security.

Page 9 of 9

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén