The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: April 2021

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 11, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

The Biden Transition and the Fight for Real Hope and Change This Time

Podcast: Are We Winning A New Political Era? (Exclusive for Subscribers) Discussion with Anand Giridharadas

David Sirota [Daily Poster April 5, 2021]

Grassroots pressure has forced Joe Biden to discard parts of his past record — and may finally be ending the Reagan Era.

Beginning at 21:20:

Having a debate about new bills, not being consumed by deficit anxiety… is a profound cultural turning point [that] augers en entirely different era…. We have to be mindful of how cultures change [and] hat it looks like when what you’ve been fighting for begins to bloom….

Four Ways of Looking at the Radicalism of Joe Biden

Ezra Klein [New York Times, April 8, 2021, via The American Prospect 4-9-2021]

Most discussions of the renewed ambitions of the Democratic Party focus on ideological trends on the left. The real starting point, however, is the institutional collapse of the right…. The long campaign against the ideological compromise that was the Affordable Care Act is central here, but so too was then-Speaker John Boehner’s inability to sell his members on the budget bargain he’d negotiated with President Barack Obama, followed by his refusal to allow so much as a vote in the House on the 2013 immigration bill. And it’s impossible to overstate the damage that Mitch McConnell’s stonewalling of Merrick Garland, followed by his swift action to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, did to the belief among Senate Democrats that McConnell was in any way, in any context, a good-faith actor. They gave up on him completely.
The result is that Obama, Biden, the key political strategists who advise Biden and almost the entire Democratic congressional caucus simply stopped believing Republicans would ever vote for major Democratic bills….
The backdrop for this administration is the failures of the past generation of economic advice. Fifteen years of financial crises, yawning inequality and repeated debt panics that never showed up in interest rates have taken the shine off economic expertise. But the core of this story is climate. “Many mainstream economists, even in the 1980s, recognized that the market wouldn’t cover everyone’s needs so you’d need some modest amount of public support to correct for that moderate market failure,” Felicia Wong, the president of the Roosevelt Institute, said. “But they never envisioned the climate crisis. This is not a failure of the market at the margins. This is the market incentivizing destruction.”
…. Even beyond climate, political risks weigh more heavily on the Biden administration than they did on past administrations. This is another lesson learned from the Obama years. The Obama team had real policy successes: They prevented another Great Depression, they re-regulated the financial sector, they expanded health insurance to more than 20 million people. But Democrats lost the House in 2010, effectively ending Obama’s legislative agenda, and then they lost the Senate in 2014, and then Donald Trump won the White House in 2016, and then Democrats lost the Supreme Court for a generation.…
Even when Biden was running as the moderate in the Democratic primary, his agenda had moved well to the left of anything he’d supported before. But then he did something unusual: Rather than swinging to the center in the general election, he went further left. And the same happened after winning the election. He’s moved away from work requirements and complex targeting in policy design. He’s emphasizing the irresponsibility of allowing social and economic problems to fester, as opposed to the irresponsibility of spending money on social and economic problems. His administration is defined by the fear that the government isn’t doing enough, not that it’s doing too much.

Biden Can Go Bigger and Not ‘Pay for It’ the Old Way

Stephanie Kelton [New York Times, April 7, 2021]

Last week, President Biden introduced a $2.2 trillion infrastructure plan in a speech, calling it “a once-in-a-generation investment in America.” And on Wednesday, he and the Treasury Department outlined many of the package’s details, including how to “pay for” it. A close look at those so-called pay-fors, however, shows Democrats are thinking about fiscal responsibility the wrong way. They could be on the verge of sparking some unpleasant short-term overheating of the economy, in which price increases accelerate and the purchasing power of our dollars falls somewhat. If the final legislation were to grow much larger — toward the $10 trillion level many progressives in Congress are pushing — it could send such inflation soaring….

Open Thread

Use comments to this post to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

American Suicide Numbers Dropped Last Year

So, we kept being told Covid was causing increased suicides and it turned out not to be true.

I suspect this means is that American bosses are so shitty that a pandemic combined with massive economic problems is preferable to working with them in close quarters.

One of the great problems with “capitalism” is that businesses break people and aren’t stuck with having to clean up the mess they made. This is particularly noticeable, lately, at Amazon, who, in at least one case, kept an ambulance outside its warehouse because it knew enough workers would collapse and need it. Or who schedules its delivery drivers so tightly they shit in bags and piss in bottles and get UTIs.

Walmart built its business on underpaying workers and sending them to get government benefits; meaning, it wasn’t actually paying for the cost of its labor. By doing so, it wiped out businesses who did pay the cost of their labor.

Capitalism, for most of its history, has required not paying either cost of its labor practices (the human damage it does) or the cost of the resources it is permanently destroying (most recently, we are on track to kill about 50 percent of all known living species, which have both monetary and non-monetary value).

A system which throws off that much damage is obviously deranged and its “gains” are obviously unsustainable. Humanity has a limited set of resources off of which it has to live (including an ecosphere) and no, “technology” cannot replace them all. We don’t even understand the interactions of a properly functioning ecology enough to create a simple one in a biosphere; we can’t fix, or heal, what we break, any more than companies who compel employees to suicide can bring them back.

None of this is particularly necessary. Our problem is that we are STUPID. Capitalism has obvious problems that we refuse to acknowledge or deal with. We need a new way of managing our economy, one which also manages ecology and resources like, oh, THE Amazon.

This is not going to be possible if we base economic decision-making on supply and demand as we currently understand them. Nor is it going to be possible with the version of democracy or one-party states through which we have been running our society. (Nor is green fascism a solution, since fascism bottlenecks decision making.)

Money, based on debt, of which our society runs huge chunks around for almost all of our history, will also have to be completely re-thought because money has a strong tendency to reward people who abuse at scale, and always has.

None of this is impossible, though we’ve left it too late, so we’re going to eat the bitter fruits of our actions. I suggest, among other things, working to be sure that those with the most power, rather than using that power (money is power) to avoid the consequences of their actions, are forced to gorge on what they have done.

Letting bygones be bygones is a very large mistake when the bygone is multi-species genocide.

More on the rest, later.


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Only Zero Covid Worked and Everyone Knows It

Vietnam has a population of 96 million and 34 Covid Deaths.

America has a population of 328 million and 550,000 Covid Deaths.

 

Australia has a population of 25 million, and 909 deaths.

The UK has a population of 67 million people and 127,000 deaths.

 

South Korea has a population of 52 million, and 1,752 deaths.

Germany has a population of 83 million, and 77,136 deaths.

 

Now here’s the thing, this has been known for at least six to eight months.

You shut down everything except actual essential services until cases are essentially at zero. You track and trace. You quarantine travelers. Any outbreaks afterwards, you shut down the area, HARD.

You can avoid mass lockdowns ONLY if you track and trace furiously at the start, with immediate traveler quarantine, and local quarantines as necessary, along with a mask mandate and other such policies. (See, Taiwan.) Never let Covid get out of control, and no widespread lockdown is necessary.

This works.

Taiwan, population 23 million, 10 deaths

New Zealand, population 5 million, 26 deaths.

Sweden, population 10 million, 13.5K deaths.

So, any government which had the capacity to do this and did not, after the first wave proved it worked, essentially chose to kill a huge number of people who didn’t need to die. Mass negligent homicide, at best.

It also turns out, to the surprise of no one with two brain cells, that Zero Covid produces better economic results than reopening repeatedly and allowing multiple waves.

What Zero Covid doesn’t do, however, is make the rich much, much richer while everyone else suffers. US billionaires increased their wealth 44 percent; 1.3 trillion, over the course of the pandemic until March.

That is SWEET. Forty-Four percent in about a year. Holy shit. This last year has to be one of the best times ever to the filthy rich.

Each US Covid death was worth $4,268 to America’s billionaires.

Is it any wonder that Covid was allowed to reign largely unchecked?

What a great time to be a billionaire! And it isn’t even over yet!

Edit: Article corrected to include the strategy which works with no or limited lockdowns.


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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – April 4, 2021

by Tony Wikrent

Strategic Political Economy

The Biden Stimulus: If You Think Inflation is the Problem, Just Wait

[YouTube, March 1, 2021]

Very informative part is Blyth’s reply beginning at 4:06.

So essentially what we’re doing is a 2 trillion dollar experiment in different theories of inflation. Why does that matter? The progressive side of the Democrats think of the world in this way: the fundamental problem [is that] wages for 60% of Americans haven’t moved almost since the 1970s.  And up to the 50th percentile of the income distribution Americans earn $20 an hour or less. You can’t run this country with that degree of working poverty.  That’s what’s behind the anger; that’s what’s behind the populism. We need to spend a lot of money to make the economy run hot. We don’t need to worry about inflation because interest rates are low for a lot of reasons and there’s been no inflation for 40 years. We can boost wages—and if we do, we stabilize the situation, and a lot of the bad shit we’ve been dealing with for the past several years will not come back.

On the other hand you have the deficit hawks, the Republicans, the centrist economists saying, no no , you’ll have terrible inflation. They’re essentially saying things are okay, and the reason you have populism is: yeah, there’s been some people who have been left behind, but there’s a lot of racism there, and this is a cultural struggle. Really the economy is doing fine and this is far too much stimulus.

Now what you see there are basically people using economic arguments to bolster their priors. So if you think populism and the ills of the US is about low wages, you will say inflation is not a problem. If you don’t think that then you don’t say that it is a problem. I doubt that it’s really about people worried about inflation. But I worry because I buy the argument that wages matter. And I worry that if we don’t try this in this moment you’re not going to get wage growth—and if you don’t get consistent wage growth over the next couple years the Democrats are dead when it comes around to the mid terms.

The minimum wage would be $44 per hour if it had grown at the same rate as Wall Street bonuses

[Business Insider, via Naked Capitalism 3-30-21]

Four Numbers That Show the Cost of Slavery on Black Wealth Today

[Bloomberg, via The Big Picture 3-28-2021]

At the end of the Civil War, Union General William Tecumseh Sherman promised some 4 million freed slaves land that they would own, live, and work on to build an economic future for themselves — also known as 40 acres and a mule. “Genuine freedom required some kind of economic base,” says Eric Foner, a professor emeritus of history at Columbia University, on episode 2 of The Pay Check podcast. “And in an agricultural society that meant owning land.”

Open Thread

Use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Has the Era of Ordinary Americans Thinking They Are “Pre-Rich” Ended?

Nice statistic here:

Buried in the new Morning Consult/Politico poll is an eye-popping statistic: Voters by a 2-to-1 margin prefer a $3 trillion infrastructure bill that includes tax hikes on $400K+ and corporations over one that excludes those tax hikes.

For most of my life, tax-cuts were the mantra of the generation and tax-raises were automatically bad. These tax cuts went overwhelmingly to the rich, but Americans, Canadians, and Brits were all for it.

As many observed, it seemed they believed that one day they would be rich, and therefore that high taxes on rich people were bad.

Now, that seems to have changed, and I suspect it’s that Americans have finally got it through their thick heads that no, most of them will never be rich, and moreover the reason they’ll never be rich is because the people who already are, are kneeling on their necks (fortunately, just on their windpipes, not a full blood choke. Well, for most people the rich are only on their windpipes — most.)

This changes things. Certainly many politicians want to do what the rich want done, because the rich will take care of them, their families, their friends, and their mistresses and boy-toys, but there are always some who are more interested in power and winning, and if the rich don’t offer the best path to victory, they’re perfectly happy to stick a shiv in them and display the bleeding body for the masses.

Yup, that’s where we are. The Pandemic, with the rich getting massively richer while the working class died, was evicted, and generally suffered so that the wealthy and upper middle class could sip delivered lattes in their houses while tapping delicately into their computers, having Zoom meetings, and feeling sorry for themselves may well have been the straw that finally broke the back on the delusion of being “pre-rich.”

We aren’t all in this together, and we never were. It’s been class warfare for as long as humans have lived in “civilizations” (and often enough, before). Some people benefit by hurting other people. Since about 79/80, the rich have been clearly winning the class wars, driving their enemies before them, and thrilling to the lamentations of their men and women.

It’s been glorious! The modern rich are the richest rich to have ever existed, richer than in the Gilded Age. Shitting in golden toilets is nothing; these people travel the world in yachts the size of a village or on private jets, between their half dozen mansions or hotels which charge $50K a night, whose entrance you or I would never be allowed to see.

All while overseeing economies which have broken the backs of the poor and middle class and are on track to kill half the world’s species and over a billion humans.

Clarity having arrived at last, it’s time to break the rich even more than the Great Crash, Great Depression, and marginal tax rates of 94 percent did. Slap on the wealth taxes, raise the marginal tax rate on income more than 10x median to 99 percent, tax corporations, disallow share buy backs, kick foreign money out of real-estate markets, tax empty homes, create a wealth tax on anything more than 30x median, and slap an estate tax on anything over the same; your kids don’t get to rule over everyone else because you were rich. (Yes, yes, put in an exemption for actual family (small) farms and actually family (small) businesses.)

Drive the rich to the edge of extinction, into utter despair. Thrill to the lamentations of their men and women.

And don’t feel bad about it, they’ll just have to get by with, say, three or five times the median per year.

What a horror. They might only live three to five times better than most people ever do.


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