Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a two-world system. If you didn’t like the deal that US was offering you, you could go the USSR. If you didn’t like the deal Russia was offering you could go to the US.
While the US probably offered a better deal, especially in later years, you could have a pretty decent life as a client state to the Soviets. Cuba under Castro had a higher standard of living in practically every way than it did pre-Castro, when it was an American client state.
Equally, you could play the two off against each other, looking for the best deal. This made it harder for them to screw you over.
As the USSR weakened, the deals became worse. The USSR of the 80s could not offer what the USSR of 50s could. Still, the ability to tell the superpower of your choice, who feared and hated the other superpower, that they had to treat you at least slightly right had benefits.
I certainly don’t want to romanticize the cold-war period. There were ugly coups, torture regimes and wars. There was famine. But while we have less of that today, we don’t have less of it because of the end of the cold war. Indeed, we have more failed states than we did during the cold war, because it is in no one’s particular interest to pick them up.
So one of the events that I have been tracking since the early 2000’s (as has Stirling) is when a viable second bloc would emerge.
To be viable, a bloc must be able to:
- Provide relatively high technology;
- Provide development: power, roads, railways, etc;
- Provide the consumer goods people want;
- Provide credit;
- Feed countries which need food;
- Provide energy (which still means oil and other hydrocarbons, though that’s changing);
- Provide some sort of credible military aid or umbrella.
Yesterday I wrote about Russia creating its own bank payments system to compete with the West’s SWIFT. This is important, because since the fall of the USSR, the West (or more accurately, America) has increasingly used this to punish those nations it does not like. Piss off Washington and they will shut down your ability engage with global credit markets, and even the ability of your citizens to use credit cards. Pretty soon you can’t buy what you want, even if you have the money, or you pay a huge premium.
So the creation of a Russian SWIFT, while woefully inadequate by itself, was a first step towards meeting one of the needs of a new bloc with rivals the West.
The linchpin nation in any new bloc would be China. China can credibly provide development, credit and consumer goods (they make much of them anyway.) But China will also need countries which can supply oil and raw materials: Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Argentina, and so on. Much of South America would rather sell food and raw materials to China (or Russia, or whoever) than to the US, because they remember, well, not being treated very well by America during and after the Cold War.
Russia’s military technology, while not as good as America’s, is good enough for most purposes, and China, as is usually the case, has vast amounts of shipbuilding capacity for those who want a navy. America’s space program is charging forward (mostly privately) but Russia still has plenty of lift capacity for satellites, and China is working hard on its space program.
The BRICS have created their own development bank, as well, so combined with an expansion of the new SWIFT, credit which can be used to buy almost anything you want, or need, will be available.
This, my friends, is the configuration in which the unipolar moment (which has lasted two and a half decades so far) ends.
It was always going to end, for all things do, the question was how soon. American actions have accelerated what should have taken a couple decades more, significantly, by marginalizing too many countries. Marginalizing or destroying the occasional country was acceptable, but the number marginalized is just too high, and they have too many resources. Combined with a great manufacturing nation, they have essentially everything they need: they don’t need the West.
And they may be wondering why they are paying intellectual property taxes (that’s what they are) and interest fees to the West, when the West clearly isn’t acting in their interest. Why have America and Britain gain all this, when they can reap the money themselves.
Oh, there are still some areas where the West is clearly ahead, from turbines to aerospace. But they tighten by the year, and they aren’t anything necessary any more. Virtually everything you want, save a few luxury items, you can get without America or Europe being involved.
The question now, then, is the timing and the exact events. But the broad outline is visible and will accelerate, because it is in too many countries self-interest.
The Great Game, the Great Game never ends.
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V. Arnold
“After the game, the king and pawn go into the same box.” — Italian Proverb
I for one, do not want a two world system; I would prefer a multi-polar world system and that is what I seem to see happening.
Militarily there may be as many as 4 players; U.S., Russia, China, and India in that order.
Russia and China are at least as capable as the U.S. in potentiality and I would rate Russian scientists very close to the U.S.. Just check out the S-400 missile defense system; the U.S. and Israel are scared shitless of it because they know how good it is. The U.S. is in grave danger of losing #1 to Russia; just look at NASA, bloody hell, they can’t even get a man into orbit much less space.
History tells us much. Persia, China, India, and Russia used to exceed the west in science and math, and may well do it again.
Twelve years away from the puffery and a clearer picture emerges…
markfromireland
@ Ian
Generally in failed states I’d expect to find a high to very high incidence of malnutrition of increasing severity range from Malnutrition to Severe Acute Malnutrition. You might find the International Food Policy Research Institute’s publications of interest.
mfi
markfromireland
PS: For those interested but new to the topic the WHO/UNICEF joint statement “Child growth standards and the identification of severe acute malnutrition in infants and children” is a good start – 12 page PDF including tables. Child growth standards and the identification of severe acute malnutrition in infants and children
James O'Keefe
Two crony capitalist blocs will help the resource exporters keep their prices up, but aren’t likely to help anyone else.
For all the USSR’s many problems, at least it provided a vision of a more economically just worker-focused world. That vision moderated the rapaciousness of US & European capitalists and helped workers’ incomes grow faster than the elites (at least until the 70s). I doubt we can count on that dynamic this time around.
Ian Welsh
One of the most interesting figures of the last few years is that Indians eat less calories now than they did 30 years ago.
Large chunks of India amount to failed states. People concentrate too much on what is still a very small middle class.
Reading your reference MFI.
jo6pac
This banking thingy is going to be very interesting in the near future, Thanks
V. Arnold I caught this today at FDL while they were up. These Russian jet fighters are amazing and there is no way f-35 or 22 could play this game. About 5 min. The Syrians have been told by the Russian to go ahead and turn on the S-300 systems when needed. They aren’t the 400 but the updated 300 no one has seen it work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK7ulDQ5h8Y&feature=player_detailpage
Jim
“Virtually everything you want, save a few luxury items, you can get without America or Europe being involved.”
I wonder a little about semi-conductors. Where do you place Taiwan (TSMC) and South Korea (Samsung)?
Aside from them the major fabs seem to be solidly in the US block (in the US itself, Europe, Israel). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants
Ian Welsh
Good point. Both those nations are solidly in the American bloc.
Though, honestly, I don’t think S. Korea would stop selling China semis — that would be desperately unwise given their geopolitical situation.
Michael
America is consumed with the idea that It is the Only Superpower and none can challenge that dominance. This is certain to create hostility in the rest of the world, even if America were totally just and correct in all her actions few enjoy being treated as inferiors. Much of America’s recent history insures that hostility will create alliances that might not have a chance of forming in a more just world.
China no longer must accept second class status, the Chinese Economy will continue to grow. It will eclipse the US economy and at some point the Chinese will expect to have a greater say in the Global Economy. China doesn’t want a military confrontation, they have a much better chance in an economic showdown. So I agree the Russian alternative financial clearance system is important.
America’s nuclear arsenal is intimidating but it is as it has always has been a suicide weapon. America’s true super weapon is the Dollar and the global economy’s dependence on that currency. Crashing the Dollar is Global suicide today, that will change if Russia provides the Chinese with a alternative financial framework.
But I think China has good reason to be wary of blindly joining Russia in hostile confrontation with America. Russia isn’t ready to accept another second place status to just to escape its current circumstance. China appears confident that it can deal with America but it’s relationship with a newly empowered Russia might inspire a high degree of caution. China is unlikely to unleash Russia just to speedup her goal of eclipsing the US, but if China can keep Russia in check while kicking America out of the driver’s seat it will happen.
S Brennan
Not in the “glamor” category of weapons systems, but vitally important nonetheless:
The EMBRAER KC-390 Medium-Range Transport Aircraft it may look like a Brick with with wings, but it has some very good numbers…much better than the USA’s KC-130…
The USA’s most important weapons contributions in WW II were not P-51’s, [as great as they were], but DC-3’s, Jeeps, Higgins LC’s and Liberty ships…also having production to arm the Soviets & English.
The KC-390 looks to be in C-17 performance territory and would be a great pairing with it…politically impossible…of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS5M1VmeKdQ
The Tragically Flip
I agree with the above concern that the new multipolar world will lack the ideological divide the Cold War had. This for example will mean that the previous incentives the Western Capitalists had to treat workers better than they do now was premised on a fear that the workers would turn East. Without a coherent counter ideology, I suppose individual workers can emigrate but there’s no competition vision, just the same vision with a different set of players.
Still, overall America deserves to lose its perch as the sole superpower. They got their chance to rule the world and failed miserably to do it any better than any previous superpower. Perhaps some competition will incent them to behave better even if it probably won’t incent the non-state actors to do so.
V. Arnold
@ jo6pac
February 16, 2015
Incredible; I’ve never seen a western fighter do those moves. Absolutely incredible.
Thanks for the link…
America has put it all out there; perfect target for Russian and Chinese technologies. I am of the opinion America’s technological expertise is vastly overrated, or at least Russia’s, specifically, is vastly underrated.
Exceptionalism is the beginning of denialism leading to the downward spiral…
karenjj2
i’m not sure about “semi-conductors” production, but do recall post 2000, Intel built an $8 billion chip plant in China. Also note made in China is on a lot of electronics including TV’s, computers and smartphones. I keep thinking that the Chinese have to be laughing at all the electronics they have sold to the US that are in DC, on board ships and in planes.
the recent uproar over the Samsung TV’s that can “look and listen to you in your living room” are probably old hat to the Chinese. If I could think of it when I heard about the Intel chip plant, I’m sure there were a few Chinese that were way ahead of me.
just think what you could do with a plane’s autopilot system with the chip’s program. i suspect there is a lot of little stuff lying dormant until the right code is transmitted.
Gaianne
jo6pac–
Thanks for that amazing link. Rumor has it they don’t do badly in combat either.
Michael–
I mostly agree with your points except with your last. The Chinese have clearly, though quietly, stated that they agree with the Russian perception of NATO expansion–and the implication that the Russians are now in a fight for national survival that (if they manage it carefully) they will win.
Both China and Russia are trying to buy time, both understand that time is on their side. They both know the US is trying to force military confrontation, but the longer they can forestall open war, the more likely the US will lose. The ideal is a sharp, regional encounter with conventional weaponry that does not force an escalation to nukes. This may not seem likely, but it is the best chance for avoiding global nuclear war.
Avoiding global war per se is no longer possible.
–Gaianne
V. Arnold
Avoiding global war per se is no longer possible.
–Gaianne
Agree and a case could be made we’re in it now.
This link is a vid of two supersonic Russian cruise missiles hitting a ship using a bow shot. The kinetic energy alone is stunning and deadly;
http://xbradtc.com/2014/10/15/russian-supersonic-cruise-missile/
Just one more example of Russian advanced technology in action.
V. Arnold
Well, America’s propaganda machine still works for (against?) its citizens. A recent Gallop poll says more Americans now consider Russia the #1 threat to America, WTF???
Link here;
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/gallup-americans-fear-of-russia-soars.html
But then they bought the Iraq lies, didn’t they; so different day, but nothing changes…
Lee Doran
Thanks Ian… provocative as always… I’m not sure I see why in principle two is better than 4 or 5…I get that competition through various levels and intensities of physicality and fighting are essential to human male behaviours but I don’t really agree that they are or should be models for human behavior on a full planet moving into the future…. surely when we decide to incorporate the human ♀♀’ very different take on life and living — including getting along with others — we will have a lot more sharing and cooperation and a lot less competition and fighting … just saying..
Keep up the pushing on that envelope… it benefits us all,
Kind regards,
L.
Jim
@korenji “Intel built an $8 billion chip plant in China.”
Yes, but if you look at the fab-list you’ll see that it’s a 65nm fab, so a long way off the current process (which is 14nm, so 65nm is old [we’ve been though 45nm, 32nm, 22nm and now 14nm since then, making 65nm eight or ten years behind the cutting edge]).
Michael
Avoiding global war per se is no longer possible.
–Gaianne
I believe Putin feels that it is underway, the unusual oil price situation looks suspicious to me.
While I agree that Russia has significant technology in the military area, I don’t think Russia is
eager to engage in overt military actions outside of their efforts to reclaim control of the client states that were lost when the USSR disintegrated
Putin will setup traps to draw the US into conflict, but direct confrontation seems unlikely. Recently a Russian Computer Security firm announced that it had discovered that the US government had access to Hard Drive OS Source Code. What Snowden provided to Russia is unknown, possibly nothing but it is also possible that Russia has information just as dangerous to American Interests as its Military weapons.
I remain doubtful of China’s desire to create disruption in the world economy. China is on course, it gains nothing by adopting a more hostile approach. I do expect China to be supportive of Russia both to disadvantage the US and to preserve the option of more overt tactics if their goals are thwarted.
Ian Welsh
A China with a prosperous population sells to itself and hundreds of millions to billions of other people around the world.
Besides the “they’d never because of money/customers, etc…” argument has failed many times. WWI most famously.
But more to the point, this doesn’t “harm” America, it protects China from America.
markfromireland
@ Ian
Except of course that as far as the Government of America and their shills are concerned anything that lessons their ability to engage in violence without consequence to America or Americans is harm.
mfi
VietnamVet
A multi-polar world would sure be preferable to the current unipolar insane asylum. Moderate jihadists are being trained to provide laser targeting for B1-B bombing raids in Syria. Green lighting the neo-Nazi anti-terrorism campaign that united ethnic Russians to fight against Kiev. Bombing the hell out of Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Yemen or Somalia. Forcing Greeks to accept either austerity or defaulting. Tell me this will turn out well.
X
One of the most difficult things is to watch people who can’t wake up. Reading this, “Twelve Caesars” came to mind, a disturbing bit of history, but an instructive one. Still, on the bright side, if people can see that others can not wake up, then most likely, they are awake. Sometimes in history, that is all one can do for a time. (X)
markfromireland
@ VietnamVet February 17, 2015
Jihadi fighters in arms by definition cannot be described as “moderate”. Describing them as such is to allow others to hijack the narrative.
mfi
Formerly T-Bear
As for conflict the nineteenth century history records a one of the quietist of the modern era. Then there were five ‘great powers’: Britain, France, Austria, the formation of modern Germany and Czarist Russia. It was not until the end of the nineteenth century that the United States joined the great power club, as an indisputable economic power, having equaled or surpassed the economic production of Britain itself. The notable characteristic was that no one of the great powers had it in their ability to succeed in displacing another great power without resort to alliance with another great power. The more ‘great powers’ there are the less likely one will overcome another without the abetting of another. Although it is no guarantee that conflict will not erupt for example in the Franco-Prussian war, the more great powers without dogs in the mêlée the less likely full conflagration war as witnessed by The Great War and WWII. A sole ‘hyper-power’ is obviously a highly unstable construct that if only for stability requirements needs be changed. Sometimes that can be the hardest part. Everyone’s survival requires the attempt.
FkDahl
I happen to work in the semiconductor field…. it can be divided into 3 big blocks
Processors – advanced CMOS. TSMC and Samsung are world class.
Memory – advanced CMOS. Hynux and Micron for example
Specialty – analog, power, precision, RF. A lot of military style electronics come from this domain, think GaN radars for fighter jets, infrared optical sensors for AA missiles or power control electronics.
US and Europe has a lead in the last category – for now. China does not yet have any truly advanced CMOS fabs, but advanced CMOS is not that important for purely military applications. They can always buy a gazillion standard CPUs and parallel them. In all these sectors there are a lot of Chinese who might be tempted go back home given the right incentives.
Bear in mind that the F-22 fighter has a 386 CPU – which is beyond ancient. The reason is part mil-spec, part long development cycle!
Stirling Newberry
“The real Jihads are down the road apiece, we are just moderate jihadists.” says the Americans
markfromireland
@ Stirling Newberry February 20, 2015
When one looks at American policies and far more importantly American actions the only reasonable concusion is that they want to create failed states.
mfi
Stirling Newberry
Genau!
V. Arnold
@ Formerly T-Bear
February 18, 2015
Even Chomsky voiced his fears when the Soviet Union collapsed; he knew what America would do with no opposition.
We need Russia and China for some semblance of sanity; India, not so much, but they will be a player if they can resolve their dysfunctional society.
Now if Europe could wean itself off of the American tit, that would make five.
markfromireland
V. Arnold February 20, 2015
There are movements afoot in that direction but it’s very early days. Then again, the Americans are increasingly treating their allies with contempt and their behaviour is also starting to hurt an increasing number of the middle classes. As this begins to bite the process may speed up a bit.
mfi
markfromireland
I find this somewhat depressing but not even slightly surprising:
Read in full: Greece deal is first step on the road back to austerity | Business | The Guardian
Somewhat more detail from the Financial Times:
Athens and its eurozone bailout lenders agreed an 11th-hour deal to extend the country’s €172bn rescue programme for four months, ending weeks of uncertainty that threatened to spark a Greek bank run and bankrupt the country.
The deal, reached at a make-or-break meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Friday night, leaves several important issues undecided — particularly what reform measures Athens must adopt in order to get €7.2bn in aid that comes with completing the current programme.
The new Greek government is to submit those measures for review to the International Monetary Fund and EU institutions on Monday, and officials said if they were not adequate another eurogroup meeting could be called on Tuesday.
Critically, Friday’s agreement commits Athens to the “successful completion” of the current bailout review, something the new Greek government has long vowed to avoid. “As long as the programme isn’t successfully completed, there will be no payout,” said Wolfgang Schäuble, the powerful German finance minister.
Still, the agreement avoids what eurozone officials feared would be market turmoil if the bailout had expired at the end of next week and should stem the mounting deposit withdrawals from Greece’s banking sector, which officials said were reaching close to €800m per day, creating a situation at risk of becoming a full-scale bank run.
[snip]
The decision to request an extension of the current programme is a significant U-turn for Alexis Tsipras, the Greece prime minister, who had promised in his election campaign to kill the existing bailout.
It also leaves the IMF and EU institutions — the European Central Bank and European Commission — in control of evaluating Greece’s economic reform measures and the disbursement of bailout funds, despite Mr Tsipras’ vow to rid Greece of the hated “troika” of bailout monitors.
[snip]
One senior official involved in the talks said the rapidly deteriorating fiscal position put pressure on Athens to cut a deal. “Their backs are against the wall,” said the official.
[snip]
Among the concessions made by Athens was an agreement to “refrain from any rollback” and “unilateral changes” of existing reform measures. The deal also fails to cut Greece’s debt levels, another promise Mr Tsipras had made during the campaign.
The deal also unexpectedly requires the eurozone’s bailout fund to take back €10.9bn in bonds currently sitting in Greece’s bank rescue facility, an unusual move that reflects the lack of trust between Athens and its eurozone creditors. The money would still be available for bank recapitalisation, but it would be disbursed by eurozone authorities rather than Athens, which previously had joint control of the funds.
[snip]
But the last-minute deal could raise questions among far-left hardliners within Mr Tsipras’ Syriza party who have already been grumbling about concessions made by the new government.
“The Greeks certainly will have a difficult time to explain the deal to their voters,” said Mr Schäuble.
Read in full: Greece and eurozone agree bailout extension – FT.com
V. Arnold
markfromireland February 21, 2015
Well, we can only hope the EU still has some sane people with some influence.
Syriza is evidence there are some who see, however, I do not know what to make of today’s deal on the loan extension…
If Tsipras sells out then that dooms most everything.
The sheer lack of understanding of the puppetry playing out, with the US as the puppet master, just means Europe is lost in subservience.
The full spectrum propaganda blast by the US is unprecedented in my life time.
Literally, every time the US “speaks”, it’s a spate of outright lies; a total twist of reality. And too many are buying the koolaide…
Mandos
Yanis Varoufakis came to office attempting to reconcile two things that cannot be reconciled: the desire of Greeks to remain in the Eurozone and avoid the likely minimum two years of suffering an exit would entail — and their desire to end the longer-term/slower scourge of punitive austerity and structural adjustment. These are not possible things to reconcile, but it was the strongest mandate the Greek electorate was prepared to give.
And the truth is, the threat of a Greek exit is only as strong as how heaviy his opponents think they will be damaged by it. As the Germans believe the only damage that matters is the damage to the banking system (long term political sustainability of the Eurozone is totally irrelevant to them, because the structural adjustment magic canmustwill work, it’s the LAW I tell you), and they believe that they’ve protected themselves against that type of damage, Grexit was never actually a usable threat.
Up to this point, I have to say, relative to how things could have gone, Yanis Varoufakis has done the best he probably could and deserves praise. He’s Vercingatorix surrendering to Caesar, making absolutely sure everyone knows what has really happened. I know some people evaluate with respect to absolute results, but politics is deeply relativist and political outcomes can only be evaluated in a “Bayesian” way: relative to some prior expectation. Which was, in this particular negotiation, low.
Xca
Speaking of koolaid…Vercingatorix…Bayesian…postitively Python-worthy.
Mandos
Some people are just determined to be permanently negative all the time. Any attempt at salvaging a bit of progress out of a bad situation is called “kool-aid”. This tendency is deeply embedded in the modern left but enjoyed a particular boost after Obama’s election didn’t mean that the forces of neoliberalism suddenly retreated or the establishment became something other than what it is.
Snatching more defeat whether it be from the jaws of victory or from the jaws of defeat.
Xco
“The mugger made off with my wallet and all my valuables but at least he isn’t kicking me in the groin anymore. Progress!”
Mandos
Indeed. In the absence of a policeman that’s on your side or an effective weapon, it is actually progress. You should acknowledge this.
Greece had neither, so what did you expect? A Greek exit from the Eurozone, by the way, would have turned the ongoing mugging into one of those basement horror scenes. We see how thin-skinned neoliberals are.
Mandos
The German public, by the way, has been whipped up into a bloodthirsty rage by the thought of bare-chested lazy Greeks sipping ouzo on the beach bought with money they got by breaking into granny’s house and stealing her piggy bank. If you are able to read the German press, German web sites and forums, etc, it is difficult to express how much the governing German coalition has come to depend on racist stereotypes of lazy Greeks for their day-to-day political survival. It is appalling but there you have it.
jump
I think Greece is buying time. They may need to eat some crow and bow down before the troika for a time to keep some stability while negotiations go on elsewhere (Russia, China?) if they cannot come up with a list of reforms the EU will accept by Monday. I don’t think they are going to give up this fight and I’m sure they have a plan ‘B’. What’s to lose?
Mandos
I mean apparently there is some awful practice called “fakelaki” that Greeks do, apparently, that is approximately somewhere between defecating in your neighbour’s kitchen and female genital mutilation, and it happens all the time and is indeed the fundamental basis of Greek society, and you mean you want to give these people billions of dollars so they can keep doing “fakelaki”? Surely someone must do something to take their ouzo away, maybe after a few years of deprivation of Vitamin O will they stop fakelaking…
Xco
Mandos reminds me of the sort of Japanese WWII apologists who insist on pointing out that sex slavery was less dangerous than getting gang-raped by soldiers in the street.
(Even though it wasn’t)
Mandos
Greece is one of those countries whose politics and electoral system offers a realistic opportunity to choose to exit the Eurozone. Greek voters have shown no sign *as yet* that they are willing to give this option a chance. It may be the case that after a few years, Greece would be better off than its current course (I actually think so), but Greek voters haven’t yet agreed to take this risk. They voted for Syriza, which in practice is an old-school social democratic party (and that is radical these days) which is pro-EU and effectively pro-Euro. They made their priorities known.
Anyone negotiating with such a mandate has very narrow straits through which to pass. As far as I’m concerned, Tsipras and Varoufakis came through with the best outcome possible short of calling a bluff they were not elected to call — meaning, not a great outcome, and we’ll find out on Monday how bad it really is, but it’s the best anyone could do. To me, that is praiseworthy. Now we’ll see whether the Greek public really expects a return to fiscal sovereignty (in which case, Syriza will likely collapse, and anti-EU forces will take power) or prefers a slower course, or even wants to return to political “normality”. Actually, the Greek people should have pulled the trigger much earlier than this, when the Eurozone was in immediate danger, but again, they were not willing to play Samson — they were still voting for ND and PASOK!
Xco, if you are living in Greece, in close contact with Greeks, or a Greek citizen, and you prefer that Greece leave the Eurozone, you should convince your friends and neighbours that they should push for that the next time they have an opportunity.
If you are living in another country, likely it is also constricted by neoliberal political corsetry. In that case, you remind me of the sort of progressive who wants other people to do the revolutioning for her/him, as well as the sort who snatches total defeat from every bad situation. Your disappointment is a disappointment in the Greek people. And trust me, you will be grateful when the mugger stops kicking you in the groin.
Xco
Whenever the Greeks elected someone who wouldn’t go along with the neoliberal agenda, he was simply replaced by outside fiat. How does that square with
or
?
Mandos
The replacements so far have taken the form of intra-party putsches among elected establishment parties. Maybe you know recent Greek history better than I, but I do not recall a case where a politician outside the ND/PASOK political complex was substituted with the leader of another party. So far, it is remained (largely) within Parliamentary procedure, even if the moral legitimacy has been dubious and the outcome, practically treason.
Greece has proportional representation and a communist party, the KKE, that is in Parliament (it has been part of Greek politics for a long time) and has an explicit demand to leave the Eurozone, and no apparent interest in instigating a wider-ranging Eurozone reform. Greeks instead chose an upstart party that advertised itself as a Europeanist party that promised to participate in a long-term process of change within the Eurozone. If the KKE or GD comes to power and then is forcibly replaced or fails to follow through, we can say that the electoral choice of Greek voters to leave the Eurozone has been betrayed. Otherwise, within the framework of electoral politics, Greek voters have never so far chosen to accept the consequences of Grexit.
This would strictly limit the parameters of negotiation, but a more important limit exists: Germans don’t care if Greece leaves, and the immediate consequences to the European banking system have (they *believe*) already been resolved.
Badtux
The notion that the Chinese are going to make any abrupt moves defies all we know about China’s leadership. They are cautious and play the long game. They will carefully cozy up to Russia because they need access to Russian resources, same reason they carefully cozy up to the Ayatollahs in Iran. But they will not burn any bridges to any other nation unless forced to do so by circumstances.
The United States is going down, but I don’t think it will be in the next decade. The full effects of the US gutting its educational system on the twin altars of privatization and No Child Left Behind will not be known for some time, though we’re already getting glimpses as American military contractors find it increasingly difficult to find competent employees capable of contributing to military projects (for national security reasons they cannot employ foreign nationals for those projects, so cannot take advantage of the importation of foreign labor that keeps Silicon Valley competitive despite the lack of educated Americans to staff their companies). The fact that the world economy is reaching the limits of dollarization means that income from seigniorage will decline, but it’s unclear how fast that will happen and whether that will actually result in a change in the global status of the US. The slow collapse of the US infrastructure is taking longer than I expected too, even with the slow dwindling of resources states are still managing to keep major highways open and serviceable, though many secondary highways are starting to revert to gravel, mud, and dirt. Still, the trends are all clear, the United States has developed Soviet Disease and allowed ideology to overcome practicality, and when that happens nations rarely last long.
So there will arise a multipolar world as the US declines and Western capitalism as a whole completes its fatal slide into oligarchical serfdom. But I think the notion of Russia and China as close allies in that multipolar world is probably not going to happen, because at that point China will not need Russia as a close ally (Chinese economic power will maintain access to the resources it needs), and Russia will balk at being merely a Chinese client state. China will likely guarantee the independence of Russia against external (likely European) threats, and will establish and maintain close trade ties, but I don’t see them as forming a new bloc to take the place of the United States as entities dominating the world. That simply ignores too much history and too much about the leadership of both nations.
In short: yes, the bipolar world was good for many, in that it provided an alternative if Western capitalism attempted to impose serfdom and thus caused Western capitalism to ameliorate many of its worst attributes. But I see no way that the current situation could ever go back to that bipolar world. There simply is no unifying ideological framework offering an alternative to Western capitalism right now, leaving only national self-interest, and national self-interest is too limited a viewpoint to create an entire bloc opposed to Western capitalism’s road to serfdom. Someone else mentioned Western Europe during the 19th century, which had multiple power blocs allying with each other in varying combinations as national interests shifted. That seems far more likely to me than the bipolar world of the mid 20th century, which was an anomaly that seems to me increasingly unlikely to happen again.
Xco
That’s like calling Petain’s ascension an intra-French putsch. Nobody was under any illusions about how the “technocrats” got installed.