Some Words on the Republican Party
Here’s what I expect from Republicans
1) Immigration reform. They want it, they need it. If Boehner is smart (and he’s not stupid, despite what people think), he’ll tie it to the Grand Bargain. Some money for southern States and municipalities. A hard lean on Republicans in states which have passed anti-immigrant bills, a sudden rediscovery of the freedom of immigration, and a lot of talk about farmers. Latinos aren’t innately loyal to the Democrats, who have treated them awfully and Republicans need it to go back to a 60/40 split. If they’re smart they’ll have Republican legislators stand up and start making statements about how America is land of immigrants, framing it as a matter of principle.
2) No more rape comments. Many Americans don’t like people justifying rape, that much is clear. They’ll still be anti-abortion, but not pro-rape (at least, not in public).
3) The presidential candidate in 4 years will be a tea-party type who isn’t connected to the nasty anti-immigrant stuff, and who hasn’t made really offensive comments about rape. He will run on jobs, jobs, jobs (Romney tried, he wasn’t credible), and will be pushing fracking, while trying to reassure suburbanites that won’t mean flaming water for them. He will be going after the working class, hard, who will be desperate for a good economy by then.
This will represent a move slightly to the left on social issues though they’ll still be so far to the right they’re in danger of going off stage. It will not mean a move to the left on economic issues or security state issues.