The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

More Notes on the Debt Ceiling “Negotiation”

If Obama didn’t want it to happen, if he didn’t want to “negotiate”, he would have:

1) raised the debt limit during the lame duck Congress.  He could have raised it enough to get him through 2 years.

2) Accepted the clean debt-ceiling bill, offered by McConnell, as noted by Stewart M.

3) simply refuse to negotiate.  “I cannot say what bills will or will not be paid if the US Congress does not increase the debt ceiling, but whether the debt ceiling is raised or not is a matter for Congress.”  I am quite sure that Wall Street and other corporations would bring the Republicans to heel so fast your head would spin.

This is all Kabuki.  Obama wants massive cuts.  He always has.  This “negotiation” is occurring because he wants it to, and would not occur if he did not want it to.

Further, if something like the Gang of Six suggestion passes, Obama will only win reelection if the Republicans nominate someone completely and utterly beyond the pale.  And maybe not even then.  Cuts of that magnitude will be to the economy what a nuclear bomb is to a city.

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101 Comments

  1. Diana Prince

    I think that’s why the stock market hasn’t “reacted”. They know he’ll cave and won’t default. It’s just theatre so that he can gut social services and give more money to rich people – just like they want too.

    sigh 🙁

  2. Quiddity

    Gang of Six? Looks to me more like the Gang of Seven (with Obama part of the team).

    I agree that this is a horrible situation that the president has steered us into. Also that Obama’s re-election is seriously in doubt if it passes.

  3. Quiddity

    Well, as long as I’m at this blog, here are some poems I’ve written:

    When the Obots see the budget deal,
    with a COLA that makes seniors squeal,
    they’ll shout out, “Don’t you know,
    this is only for show”,
    “What Barack signs will have more appeal”.
    (which it won’t)

    It takes a political dope,
    to think that there’s any faint hope,
    that the cuts to S.S.
    will have any success,
    stopping plutocrats’ financial grope.

    When Obama plays his kind of chess,
    even though it sure looks like a mess,
    you’ll hear words of praise,
    about all the ways,
    why the Beltway, he’ll surely impress.

    When Barack’s at the bargaining table,
    He tries hard, as much as he’s able,
    for a difference to split,
    ’cause he don’t give a shit,
    if you’re poor, elderly, or disabled.

  4. bob mcmanus

    Real nastiness (or paranoia) imagines Obama (and friends) deliberately created the crisis situation (Shock Capitalism) by for instance, ensuring the Spring 2009 stimulus package was ineffective and borrowing so much money to bail out the banks. This would include TARP in 2008, the choice to let Lehmann fall, the decision to blow off Pelosi and not end the Bush tax cuts in Jan 2009, the reappointment of Bernanke, and the structure and timing of the health care bill. IOW, the Lesser Depression is a deliberate tactic or strategy. I even think Greenspan could have engineered the housing bubble.

    I am unable and unwilling to predict anything 2 weeks or 2 years ahead. It appears the France and Germany have reached an agreement on Greece, so that may be punted another 6 months. Congress and Obama probably will raise the debt ceiling, with say a trillion dollar spending cut (few taxes) as a down payment to the House, and immediately start looking toward a Grand Bargain in the fall. I think this will happen maybe the middle of August to mid September after much damage has been done to the economy and the US credit rating.

    Then Europe, horrible fiscal policy, and Bernanke will send us into the 2nd leg of what history will eventually call the Greater Depression in early 2012. Romney or any Republican would have good odds in November, but I’m not sure it matters, because the real serious neo-liberalism will come down on us in 2013, no matter who is President.

    It’s gonna be a screaming nightmare.

  5. Jean Paul Marat

    Bachmann/ Rand in 2012 ’cause a swift thrust of the knife kills faster and cleaner than a thousand hopey-changey. Until it gets so unbearable, nothing will change. Its the frog in a pot being brought to the boil.

  6. Notorious P.A.T.

    Isn’t a debt ceiling a stupid idea in the first place?

  7. nick

    Obama in effect has the left Stockholmed in that he’s the goody the system has offered after a long round of abuse. To wander through metaphors, the left is watching its own destruction, half awake. All that will be left to do is to squabble over crumbs and corners, watching for pigs on the wing.

  8. Morocco Bama

    ……or, Nick, maybe it will allow for a new, prodigious opposition to arise from the ashes of the current “Left.” An opposition that is flexible, improvisational, not easily cowed or cornered…..an opposition that will ultimately get the job done and end this Class War once and for all.

    Of course, another perspective for this is that there is no “Left” and hasn’t been for quite some time in the U.S. Some would argue that there was never a “Left” recognized within the political establishment in the U.S. Considering this, what has been jokingly referred to as the “Left” is a mere illusion propped up to give the disaffected and I want to feel good without giving up my Volvo Liberals the idea that they matter, when in fact they don’t. What’s referred to as the “Left” in the U.S. is a hollowed out husk, and hidden within its innards are the Enemy.

  9. Morocco Bama

    Isn’t a debt ceiling a stupid idea in the first place?

    Isn’t debt a stupid idea in the first place? It is, quite literally, stealing the future until there is no future. and it makes slaves of all of us who are indebted, one way or another….which is most of us.

  10. Morocco Bama

    I think that’s why the stock market hasn’t “reacted”.

    The Stock Market is no longer a reliable indicator of anything, if it ever was. It’s the last leg that will get kicked out….it’s the leg that keeps the Middle Class from taking to the streets. Once their retirement goes….for the majority, then all hell is going to break loose, but not constructively, unfortunately. Scapegoats will be found. Pogroms will be launched and senseless, misdirected violence will rule the day.

  11. Z

    I wonder how limousine larry o’donnell will spin this? http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/obama-press-skeptical-house-senate-dem-leadership-on-big-deal-with-boehner.php

    Excerpt:

    A Congressional aide briefed on ongoing negotiations between House Speaker John Boehner and President Obama says the two principals may be nearing a “grand bargain” on to raise the debt limit which would contain large, set-in-stone spending cuts but only the possibility of future revenue increases.

    “All cuts,” the aide said. “Maybe revenues some time in the future.”

    He’ll probably trade cuts in medicare and ss just for an extension of unemployment insurance and extending the payroll tax cut for another year. That would be him, thinking that as long as he got something in return he can sell it to his followers as better than what could have been. It shows that he really cares.

    Like Ian wrote, obama is the one driving these cuts … he’s the one that wants them more than anything. But not only is he driving them, OBAMA WANTS CREDIT FOR THE CUTS … he’s not hiding behind a leiberman or a nelson or a baucus or the blue dogs or anyone else like he usually does. He’s front and center … for a change … putting his name all over these unpopular cuts. It makes no political sense at all … all the political justifications for them are lacking in logic becoz, if nothing else, they are going to hurt the economy and hurt a lot of people. He knows that.

    Well, fuck it … I’ll stop right there, becoz I’ve already made my beliefs known on this blog as to why I think he’s doing this.

    Z

  12. Z

    Addendum to my last post:

    He’ll probably trade cuts in medicare and ss just for an extension of unemployment insurance and an extension of the payroll tax cut for another year as well as some nebulous promise to close tax loopholes in the future.

    Z

  13. Diana Prince

    “The Stock Market is no longer a reliable indicator of anything,”

    I agree completely – and honestly, the fact that they only look to the reaction of the stock market is more proof that they really don’t care how these policies affect regular people. You have to have money to invest – so anyone living paycheck to paycheck generally speaking does not have money to invest. If they are lucky enough to have a job with a pension etc, their money is invested for them. And, for example when that money is invested in toxic waste to artificially inflate the housing market – if it fails, pensions are gutted and the taxpayer also pays for a massive bailout. Remember how Bush constantly would constantly talk about the “ownership society” and how the value of housing only went up? The reason we have a jobless recovery with apparently zero concern about massive mortgage fraud is why the “recovery” is jobless. At least with the internet “bubble”, it was new technology that created a new way of doing business so there was a lot of (crazy) speculation – and there still is regarding anything to do with computer “magic boxes”. I know it’s more complicated and there are other factors involved – but the housing market isn’t like that. It’s not like property laws weren’t established. They deliberately – and I think overtly – broke the law using MERS – and a variety of other ways (derivatives). It got worse and worse under Bush until everything exploded. Again – sorry, I know I’m generalizing again 🙁 but what a clusterfuck – srsly! 😉

  14. Cuts of that magnitude will be to the economy what a nuclear bomb is to a city.

    I’m imagining it would be more like the effect a nuclear bomb in a major city like NYC or LA would have on the economy – to throw it into a far worse condition than it’s in now. Am I being overly optimistic.

  15. Morocco Bama writes:

    Isn’t debt a stupid idea in the first place?

    No, debt is, if it’s used properly, a way of evening out our money supply in the face of our needs. That’s true at both a personal and a national level. Borrowing money to buy a house or a car is sometimes necessary, since we don’t generally have a few $100k lying around to pay for such things. Bond issues for specific projects are a similar expense at the government level. Spend that money unwisely, and yes, you’ll be worse off, but I don’t see anything implicitly evil about debt.

    At least, I don’t at an intellectual level. On a personal level, I hated being in debt when I bought my house. That’s a personal financial obligation that would give just about anyone pause, I think. So I don’t write this because I love using credit. I write it because, despite my own prejudices, I think it’s something that is good for an economy to have done.

    Heck, “money changers” have been around since Biblical times, at least. They provide a necessary service. It’s just one that most of us don’t like to use if there’s any way we can avoid it.

  16. Jack Olson

    Interesting idea, Mr. Welsh, that President Obama could have and should have raised the debt ceiling while his party still held the House. Instead, he gave up on the taxes increases, both the income tax increases which were due to happen automatically and the return of the estate tax–whose repeal he called “the Paris Hilton tax break” when he gave the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic Convention. Then, why did he do as he did, instead of raising the debt ceiling, as you suggest he should have?

    Most likely, because the previous month his party had taken what President Obama called a “shellacking” at the polls in an election where the biggest issue was the fiscal one. He doesn’t want the shellacking of 2010 to turn into the rout of 2012, when his own name will be on the ballot.

  17. nihil obstet

    Notorious P.A.T. asks “Isn’t a debt ceiling a stupid idea in the first place?”

    The debt ceiling was established by legislation in 1917, replacing individual bills of debt issuance. Its establishment has been variously interpreted as providing more flexibility for financing World War I or as setting a limit on how much the Wilson administration could spend on that European war, entry into which was very unpopular. So from the start, the debt ceiling was primarily a political maneuver.

  18. Notorious P.A.T.

    “He doesn’t want the shellacking of 2010 to turn into the rout of 2012”

    So he gave the rich a tax cut and is about to cut Medicare to pay for it. Great way to avoid electoral disaster!

  19. Jean Paul Marat

    He was defeated the moment he was elected.

  20. He was defeated the moment he was elected.

    Marat has it right.

  21. StewartM

    Jack Olsen:

    Most likely, because the previous month his party had taken what President Obama called a “shellacking” at the polls in an election where the biggest issue was the fiscal one.

    Wrong. The biggest issue in 2010 and continues to be in 2011 was/is JOBS and wages.

    He doesn’t want the shellacking of 2010 to turn into the rout of 2012, when his own name will be on the ballot.

    That’s why Obama wants to cut SS, Medicare, and Medicaid (72 % of Americans are against that) while not raising taxes on the rich and corporations (72 % of Americans are for that). Poll after poll shows that this is true across all subsets and persuasions, even including *Republicans*. Yet what we’re likely to get out of this sausage-making is just the opposite.

    Sure sounds like a way for Obama to make friends and influence people, eh?

    Ezra Klein showed a graph that shows the difference between Americans of different political persuasions in how they’d handle the deficit and debt–and:

    a) there’s less difference between the “average” Democrat and the “average” Republican than there is between the “average” Republican and the positions staked out by Republican leaders;

    and…

    b) Obama, who is mislabeled as a “liberal” by the conservative press and many in the mainstream press, has staked out a position *to the right of the average Republican*.

    I used to say that America doesn’t have center-right political opinion, despite the punditry; we have nominally “liberal” (for this country) political beliefs but *center-right leadership* no matter who wins. Now, with Obama, we don’t even have that, we have Right-Crazy Right leadership totally disconnected from what voters actually want.

    -StewartM

  22. StewartM

    Jane Hamsher has an interesting take on this over at FDL:

    http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2011/07/21/why-arent-the-banks-lobbying-over-the-debt-ceiling/

    The banks aren’t lobbying for an increase, even though they could lose a LOT of money in a default. Why this odd behavior? Here are some reasons she lists:

    They think it will just happen anyway and aren’t worried — O-kay. I can’t find anyone else who isn’t worried, so I’m assuming that the quality of their intel isn’t that poor.

    They are taking a short position — No rise in CDS notable, but there are other ways I suppose.

    They dislike Obama so much they’re willing to risk default to get rid of him — Unlikely. The banks well know that things are so fragile that a Lehmans II could take the whole place down.

    It has never been their job to whip debt ceiling increases, so they just didn’t think to do it — possible, but the banks usually figure out pretty quickly how to pick up a phone and start calling when their money is on the line.

    They think it’s “unseemly” — seriously? Since when did the banks give a shit about “decorum” when there was a dollar involved?

    They don’t think they have any control over the tea party — they may not, which means they just flushed $20 million down the drain. Boo hoo. But that leaves roughly 500 people who don’t fall into that category, and they aren’t lobbying them either.

    They have received private assurances from Obama that before it gets to that point, he will invoke the 14th Amendment, and they do not want to be blamed for raising the debt ceiling by publicly advocating for it.

    Jon Walker adds two possible more:

    The banks want to force the President to use the 14th amendment and take the debt ceiling increase votes off the table once and for all, because who knows what kind of nut might be in office 8 years from now

    The banks want to force Bernanke into some kind of mini-QE3 to send out Social Security checks, because that will be very very good for Goldman Sachs. In which case Judd Gregg should definitely go to jail.

    Comments? I’m voting either a private assurance of the 14th amendment strategy or the mini-QE3 play.

    StewartM

  23. StewartM

    Ian Welsh:

    Further, if something like the Gang of Six suggestion passes, Obama will only win reelection if the Republicans nominate someone completely and utterly beyond the pale. And maybe not even then. Cuts of that magnitude will be to the economy what a nuclear bomb is to a city.

    The supposed weakness of the Republican field? Maybe that’s not just coincidental?

    The Tea Partiers have shown themselves not easily managed by the banksters. Why should they want a Bachmann or Palin as President who might go off half-cocked and ignore them? Obama can do the their job a lot more competently, while neutering Democratic and progressive resistance and destroying the Democratic and liberal brand. In the meantime, Obama’s relection ensures the Tea Partiers can continue to whip up the fascist-leaning elements in the US to a white-hot frenzy and continue to dominate the news cycles as the only media-recognized “people’s protest”.

    I think the kabuki theater is trying to ensure Obama gets re-elected, no matter how bad it gets.

    StewartM

  24. Alex SL

    Cujo359,

    Well put. It could be added that a complex society without debt is simply not possible – one person’s debt is another person’s asset, and without debt larger economic undertakings would always be limited to the few who have accumulated large sums of money, and nobody could ever found a start-up company.

    But more importantly, all debt is not equal. There are at least three possible debtor categories: consumers, companies and the state. Companies, as mentioned above, simply need to have debt to function, there is no way around it. For them, it is the normal modus operandi, and no problem as long as they can expect to make more profit than they have to pay in interest.

    Consumers, on the other hand, should really think very hard indeed before ever going into debt. I think the only reasonable way of doing that is a mortage or student loan after a careful cost-benefit analysis has shown that it is affordable and a good investment for the future. Apart from that, debt is always eating the future for a consumer, and anybody who goes into debt to pay for consumption should get their head checked. What they should really do is save, and the money they deposit can then be lent out by the banks to the companies mentioned above.

    Finally, the state is yet another issue. Ideally from a Keynesian perspective, it should balance the other two “sectors”; when companies and consumers are doing well, lower state debt, when they suffer, go into debt to help them lower theirs and get the economy out of a slump. Once again, one person’s debt is another person’s asset, and this is the blatantly obvious point that debt-is-always-bad shouters fail to grasp. Such Keynesianism could probably work if everybody weren’t idiots and wouldn’t always fail to lower the debts during the good years.

    But even in the worst case, a state can simply go bankrupt or inflate the debt away. Companies and consumers obviously do not have the latter option, and companies may be physically destroyed by the former, but that cannot happen to a state. I have never quite understood why all this debt is taken so seriously. If worst really comes to worst (and it looks as if it will), simply do a currency reform and start completely anew, with all debts and assets destroyed. The important thing is that you still have the farms, mines, factories and the educated workforce. That is the machinery – the money is just the grease that keeps the cogs turning smoothly. Of course, such a move would require the state not to be completely beholden to the creditors…

  25. anon2525

    If Obama didn’t want it to happen,…

    Still no word on what the congressional democrats want. If they don’t want this, then it doesn’t matter what obama or the republs want.

    The telling event of the day is that obama’s trial balloon causes democrats to “erupt.” You only erupt if you’re surprised and opposed. And you’re only surprised if you are kept in the dark. obama is lieberman in the white house: he is opposed to democratic programs that were started by during democratic presidencies (especially, roosevelt’s and johnson’s) and he doesn’t even respect the democrats enough to include them in negotiations.

    So, Democrats, you have someone who is against your interests and who holds you in contempt. What’s it going to take for you to dump this guy?

  26. Tom Hickey

    Wall Street owns Obama. It was Wall Street money that got him elected, and even before the election, he delivered with the massive bailout. It’s been downhill since.

  27. Morocco Bama

    Alex and Cujo, you crack me up…really, you do. From your statements, it is implied that debt will always be with the human race, and I believe that is patently false and downright absurd. If we don’t extinct ourselves first, the notion of debt will be relegated to the history texts in two-hundred years. In fact, our survival as a species will depend on all debt being vanquished. In a world of finite resources, debt has only served to accelerate and hasten the theft of the future.

  28. Celsius 233

    Morocco Bama PERMALINK
    July 21, 2011
    Alex and Cujo, you crack me up…really, you do. From your statements, it is implied that debt will always be with the human race, and I believe that is patently false and downright absurd. If we don’t extinct ourselves first, the notion of debt will be relegated to the history texts in two-hundred years. In fact, our survival as a species will depend on all debt being vanquished. In a world of finite resources, debt has only served to accelerate and hasten the theft of the future.
    ==================================
    Now that is an interesting statement! No debt. But does that not presuppose no credit?
    I understand finite resources; but not in this context. Can you explain a bit further…or not…I’ll figure it out eventually, cheers…

  29. Alex SL

    Morocco Bama,

    let me get this straight: in two hundred years, nobody will be able to say, “could you borrow me five spacedollars for a drink, I’m gonna pay you back tomorrow?” And the survival of the human species will depend on making it impossible for people to say, “hey, I got this grand idea for a service, but no capital to open up a store, could you loan me 200,000 spacedollars?”

    That’s kinda like saying that there will be a future without communication. Without debt, everything more complicated than a lone hunter-gatherer on an island grinds to a halt.

  30. Morocco Bama

    That’s kinda like saying that there will be a future without communication. Without debt, everything more complicated than a lone hunter-gatherer on an island grinds to a halt.

    This is nuts. You have exalted the concept and practice of Debt and Lending to the status afforded the Monolith in Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey. Your statements imply a certain arrogance. The implication is that complex society, Civilization if you will, is superior to what came before, and for lack of a better term, what came before is the lowly, furrow-browed, slouched Hunter-Gatherer. Merely because our current social/economic/political arrangement is more complex does not in any way make it more superior, nor does it denote progress, unless, of course, we want to redefine “progress” for these purposes.

    Whether you like it, or not, Humanity is on a trajectory….one largely determined by forces well beyond your control, and my control. Current industrial growth, considering diminishing resources, is no longer possible. A growth model, of which Debt has been an integral part, although I would argue didn’t have to be but once the genie was out of the bottle it was here to stay until the economic model that is Civilization is no more which is now upon us, presumes an infinite abundance of resources. That assumption, obviously, is false, and so the model itself was always false and now Humanity’s at the Crossroad of Reckoning. From here on out, to exist as we have been for the past 10,000 to 12,000 years, Humanity has no choice but to deleverage and contract, and Debt has no place in such a scenario. There is no tomorrow in the context of this current system…only the illusion of one….and that illusion has been sold and resold, packaged and repackaged for at least thirty years now, and an argument can be made ever since WWII. Of course, some of the most brilliant minds on the face of the planet know this and have taken it well into consideration. It is the belief of many within the scientific community that we can overcome the restraint of finite resources and continue our quest to dominate not just Earth, but the entire Universe…..not as Biological Man….but as Digital Man….but can they erect Digital Man quick enough, and board that Digital Ark, before the miasmic deluge of Trading Down breaks loose? The world, if it still exists, will be a very different place in 200 years, and Humanity, if it still exists, will look upon this current debt-based system the same way you look upon the system(s) under which Hunter-Gathers operated….antiquated and inferior.

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7141762977713668208

    But hey, if it makes you feel better to believe Star Wars and Star Trek were documentaries and not ridiculous fiction, then far be it from me to stand in your way.

  31. Alex SL

    Er, what? You are raving, dude. I did not even make half the arguments that you just wildly swung at, and you do not exactly sound very coherent here…

  32. No, Alex – Morocco is making perfect sense.

  33. StewartM

    Anon2525:

    So, Democrats, you have someone who is against your interests and who holds you in contempt. What’s it going to take for you to dump this guy?

    Yes. That’ sums it up well.

    I remember all this gleeful talk by liberal Democrats in 2009 about how the Republican party was going to go the way of the Whigs and disappear. I never believed that; moreover as 2009 played out I thought that analogy was on the wrong foot, so to speak.

    It’s not the Republicans who are the latter-day Whigs. Whether they represent the anything more than 20 % of American opinion is besides the point; they’re cohesive and well-funded and serve a relatively non-diverse set of factions with less internal infighting. It’s the *Democrats*, not the Republicans who may go the way of the Whigs. The Democrats are the ones who are being torn asunder by competing interests, by trying to be for labor and for women and for gays and for Hispanics and for the environment while also being for Wall Street.

    The only glimmer to these dark clouds is that this might result int the destruction of the Democratic party and with it some of the leaders of America’s “left” which have sold us out. That might allow an opportunity for resistance.

    -StewartM

  34. ks

    No, Petro – Morocco is raving and beating his usual drums.

  35. @ks:

    Well, he may have pulled out a bazooka where a sidearm would’ve sufficed, but Alex’s unfortunate – and telling – metaphor of “spacedollars” nearly made my head explode.

    I think the conflation of credit and we-can-grow-forever is a valid one.

  36. Notorious P.A.T.

    Anon525 wrote:

    “Still no word on what the congressional democrats want. ”

    That’s not accurate. See this:

    http://www.talkleft.com/story/2011/7/14/1462/43320

    “The plan, which is being hatched by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), would ensure that over $1.5 trillion in cuts over ten years be passed into law. It would also grant President Obama the authority to extend the debt ceiling through the 2012 election season while requiring him to propose — but allowing him to ultimately veto — cuts beyond those initial $1.5 trillion.”

    Congress has offered Obama a squeaky-clean debt limit increase, and he turned it down to push for cuts to Medicare and Social Security, which another person here mentioned before (hat tip).

  37. Notorious P.A.T.

    How can we have a society without debt–without borrowing–unless we create a situation where everyone has the same amount of wealth? Actually, even then there could still be borrowing if some people want to take on a project that requires more resources than they immediately have access to. I don’t think our society can grow forever, but even a body that has stopped growing has to undertake new projects to replace old and worn-down parts.

  38. StewartM

    ks:

    “The plan, which is being hatched by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), would ensure that over $1.5 trillion in cuts over ten years be passed into law. It would also grant President Obama the authority to extend the debt ceiling through the 2012 election season while requiring him to propose — but allowing him to ultimately veto — cuts beyond those initial $1.5 trillion.”

    Word is, though, that Reid was doing this on orders of the White House. Which is another reason Senate Dems are angry, because the White House has meanwhile been undercutting them all along.

    http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/07/22/the-day-senate-democrats-got-angry/

    Senate Democrats are mad, not only because most of them had to hear about the all-cuts deal in the press, not only because they’re being cut out of the negotiations, but because they feel Obama walked past the endgame and forced a point-of-no-return big solution that cannot be delivered without an unbalanced deal.

    -StewartM

  39. @Notorious P.A.T. – Well, this is Ian’s house, after all – and he leans towards the pragmatic and dealing with the facts-on-the-ground as they are, as “society” is currently organized. And so it’s probably a bit rude to go to the place necessary to respond to your questions.

    However (isn’t there always a “however?”), as a general point, the maxim that the answer is embedded in the question applies here in spades. Meditation points:

    “where everyone has the same amount of wealth”
    “more resources than they immediately have access to”
    “stopped growing… to replace old and worn-down parts”

    I’d be happy to take that discussion over to my place. And, with all apologies to Ian, I sincerely do not mean to be blog-whoring.

  40. StewartM

    Yo, Jack! Lookie what Republicans are getting ready to campaign on:

    http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/07/22/republicans-already-attacking-proposed-social-security-cuts-from-the-left/

    Conservatives are already attacking President Barack Obama for cutting Social Security, before the ink is even dry on any deal that would accomplish this. While this tactic should in theory collapse under the weight of its own hypocrisy, it’s essentially the same script that won the Republicans the House of Representatives in 2010, and would definitely be a feature of their efforts in 2012.

    Of course, they’re hypocrites, just like Paul Ryan’s gutting Medicare attempt after campaigning to save it, but that’s never stopped them before.

    But note the public wants a “liberal” solution. The problem is, neither party will give it to them, they’re both bought by moneyed interests determined to treat the US like a cash cow industry and milk every dime out of it they can before closing shop.

    -StewartM

  41. StewartM

    This may be just a short-lived tempest that blows over quickly, but it’s the best sign yet:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/debt-talks-bring-tensions-between-democrats-obama-to-surface/2011/07

    With more concerns than details, Democrats lashed out, saying that deep cuts to federal agency budgets and entitlements were too steep a price to pay. They questioned whether Obama shared their core values, and they sought reassurance — at a hastily arranged evening meeting at the White House that lasted nearly two hours — that the final legislative package would be the balanced approach that the president had promised.

    [….]

    Often kept in check out of loyalty for their president, congressional Democrats have grown increasingly suspicious of Obama’s motives over the past year.

    Many in the House didn’t appreciate what they saw as meager support for Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) in her final, embattled months as House speaker before the 2010 midterm election.

    The Democrats could torpedo any deal other than a “clean” bill. A default could hurt everyone, but since it also hurts the banksters, while cuts to entitlements don’t, that is the preferred course for, um, “shared sacrifice”.

    I’m not getting my hopes up, as these *are* Dems, most of which fall into class Invertebrata.

    -StewartM

  42. BlizzardOfOz

    StewartM,

    Which is another reason Senate Dems are angry, because the White House has meanwhile been undercutting them all along.

    Obama undercutting Democratic constituencies? Truly shocking. Who could have ever seen that one coming.

  43. anon2525

    “Still no word on what the congressional democrats want.”

    That’s not accurate. See this:

    Sure, there’s that plan. And there’s also the “gang of six”, which includes three senate democrats, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which has proposed a “People’s Budget.” But the point is that when obama launches his trial balloons, he does it with republ input only. Where is the democratic congressional (senate and house, not senate-only) input?

    In theory, it works like this: “Hi. I’m a democratic president. You’re democratic congress members. Let’s work together to produce a bill that represents what Democrats think is the best way to address our problems.” Instead, obama ignores the House democrats (they’re a minority–losers, obviously), and only works with enough democrats in the Senate (conrad, warner, etc.) to get a majority (all republs, lieberman, and some democrats). That’s his strategy (if it wasn’t, then the Democrats would not have been surprised) to get what he wants–cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. (obama: “Party? What Party? Don’t you know who my mentor was? I’m like lieberman–I’m a party of one.”)

    Since obama has no loyalty to the democratic party, why does the democratic party still have loyalty to him?

  44. Z

    It’s almost as if obama is doing damn near everything he can to piss off the democratic party.

    Z

  45. anon2525

    The Decider obama from his speech today (transcribed from audio, with
    parenthetical commentary): (Part 1)

    I’ve already said that I’m willing to cut an
    historic amount of gov’t. spending in order to reduce the deficit.

    I’m willing to cut spending on domestic programs,
    taking them to the lowest level since Dwight Eisenhower.

    I’m willing to cut ‘defense’ spending at the pentagon
    by hundreds of billions of dollars (applause).

    I’m willing to take on the rising costs of health
    care programs like Medicare and Medicaid, so that these programs will
    be there for the next generation (hint: speech is in front of a
    college audience), for a population that’s generally getting older and
    living longer (“except if you’re poor–Die, losers!”), we’ve got to
    make sure that these programs, which are the crown jewels of our
    social safety net, that those are there for the future.

  46. Notorious P.A.T.

    “In theory, it works like this…”

    Okay, I see what you mean now.

  47. anon2525

    More from the Decider’s speech earlier today (transcribed from audio):

    And some of these cuts will just eliminate wasteful spending —
    weapons we don’t need, fraud and abuse in our health care system.

    (You mean like Medicare Part D? That kind of abuse? Like
    the “no-bid, cost-plus” contracts for your military operations?
    That wasteful spending?)

    But — I want to be honest — I’ve agreed to also
    target some programs that I actually think are worthwhile.

    Once again, the Decider decides for us. And it’s good to know that he
    wants to be honest. He was lying up until now.

    They’re cuts that some people in my own party aren’t too happy
    about. And, frankly, I wouldn’t make them if money wasn’t so tight.

    Translation: “Party” being a loose concept defined as when they agree
    with the Decider, he goes along with what they want. It’s not like
    they decide this together–not that kind of “party.”

    Again, he wants to be “frank” and “honest.” Not like every time in
    the past when he spoke. Money is tight? Let’s mention the decisions
    the Decider made that have lead to the deficit being so large:

    1) Support for the TARP and subsequent decisions to appoint Geithner and
    re-appoint Bernanke, and their decisions to prop up the insolvent large banks
    2) Continuing and expanding military operations to support the MIC and the
    fossil-fuel industry
    3) Continuing the bush/cheney tax policies
    4) Continuing the protection of the medical services and insurance industry

    Let us hear some “honest” and “frank” talk about the wrong decisions that
    you made and how you are going to reverse them, Decider.

    But it’s just like a family. Now, if you got to tighten your
    belts, you make some choices.

    Except the federal gov’t. budget isn’t “just like a family.” Also,
    the “you” in “you make some choices” does not mean you the
    listener. You don’t count. The Democrats you might have elected
    don’t count. The Decider will be making the choices.

    Now, here’s the thing–and this is what the argument’s about–we
    can’t just close our deficit with spending cuts alone…

    In other words, the “argument” is about what the Decider and the
    republs say it is about. The House Democrats don’t count.
    Much of the Senate does not count. So says the Decider.

  48. StewartM

    anon2525:

    Let us hear some “honest” and “frank” talk about the wrong decisions that
    you made and how you are going to reverse them, Decider.

    The easiest one to pick out, when he held all the cards, was in not letting the Bush tax cuts expire. All he had to do is NOTHING. How hard is NOTHING?

    What he get for that exactly? One of the promises I believe was that the Repugs wouldn’t hold the debt ceiling hostage. How’d that play out?

    Except the federal gov’t. budget isn’t “just like a family.

    Not to step in cowpile about whether or not debt is good or not going in this thread, the fact is that families DO engage in deficit spending and debt. All the time.

    …..

    That being said—Hurrah!! The “grand bargain” talks breaking down today is the best news out of DC in some time. It was the best of all likely outcomes for this mess. Now the focus will be on a “clean” debt ceiling increase.

    We’re not out of the woods by any means, indeed the future continues to look bleak in many ways, but at least we were spared this self-inflicted wound on the US and possibly global economy by idiotic $4 trillion dollar (mostly) spending cuts, cuts with the highest GDP multipliers (i.e., those that directly aid low- and middle-income people). We have a bunch of intransigent right-wingers to thank for this mostly more so than our “Democrat” president.

    Don’t you wish that progressives would fight as stubbornly for what they say they believe in?

    -StewartM

  49. Everythings Jake

    Would I be overly conspiracist to suggest that the ongoing drama has been “our lords and masters” (OL&M) manufacturing volatility to pay themselve a few hundred billlion more?

    I dunno. Seems like in the end it’s always about the graft. I wonder, the race must be on – first one to accumulate a trillion.

    Who else would be yanking Boehner’s chain, because in all respects default itself would seem to be very bad even for OL&M? I suspect the McConnel-Reid (clean debt ceiling) will prevail in the end.

    Also, straight up white, blond and blue-eyed right wing violence in Norway today. Not that any one in the media have apologized for leaping to the Islamist “jihad” narrative.

    Meanwhile, the earth – that pesky PPM thing.

    Glarb.

  50. anon2525

    The easiest one to pick out, when he held all the cards, was in not letting the Bush tax cuts expire. All he had to do is NOTHING. How hard is NOTHING?

    Why did Obama and the Democrats continue the bush/cheney tax policy in 2009? There is no obligation on any congress to continue the spending policy of the previous congress. Likewise, why did they continue the terrible bankruptcy law that the republs pushed through? Or the medicare part D that funnels hundreds of billions of dollars per year to the drug industry? Or the deregulation that was passed in the 90s and which lead to the housing bubble, the collapse, and the recession, and which continues to threaten the economy?

    These lead up to the question of the larger view: Why is it that the Democrats have not reversed everything that the republs have done the past thirty years, and yet are helping to reverse every good program that Democrats have put in place over the past seventy years?

  51. Morocco Bama

    but Alex’s unfortunate – and telling – metaphor of “spacedollars” nearly made my head explode.

    Yeah, mine too!! He could have at least used Space SDR’s instead of Dollars.

    Petro, I knew you would understand my point. A view of your blog shows that you, like myself, have explored those mental avenues. I like it (your blog), and will tune into it more often now that I know it exists. Thanks for whoring it. 🙂

  52. Celsius 233

    I hate the term used to describe the travesty going on in DC; Kabuki Theater; bullshit! It’s not theater; it’s out and out fraud!
    I am just plain underwhelmed (disgusted) by the criminal class flaunting their disdain for their electorate.
    Let the whole lot rot in a fucking prison; they’re the most over-rated, worthless pile of toxic shit that won’t even make decent fertilizer.

  53. Ian Welsh

    I used to discuss economic and social theory. A lot (back on BOP, sometimes at the Agonist and FDL.) Don’t anymore, there’s no point. I can tell you how to fix what’s wrong, and I can tell you why, but it doesn’t matter, because no one with any power wants to do it, and most Westerners don’t really want it. Even if they’re for some part of it in theory, their ideology is so screwed up that they’re against other necessary parts. It reminds me of my last regular corporate job, trying to explain to executives that they couldn’t pick and choose parts of a plan, that they were interdependent, and if they did only some it would be a clusterf*ck.

    Of course, they ignored me, and it was.

    Americans are like that, they’re angry at the GOP about the debt deal, but they also don’t want the debt ceiling raised, for example.

    On a theoretical level debt is necessary, yah, but a radically restructuring of how money works is necessary and that would include how debt works. A loan is permission to do something, right now we give permission for people to do unproductive and/or stupid and/or actively harmful things.

    But the bottom line in America is that you can’t have suburbia as consumption (ie. non productive suburbs) and fix what is wrong with America. And Americans have a super majority for doing whatever it takes to keep suburbia going, no matter who has to die.

  54. Formerly T-Bear

    @ 233ºC

    “Let the whole lot rot in a fucking prison; …”

    Better still, that lot is already in prison, the most escape proof prison there is, prisoners of their own minds, locked behind bars of ignorance, belief and hubris, shackled to ideology, chained to the weights of propaganda and delusion, there is no escape for them. That these creatures rule the dungeon as if lords does nothing to release themselves from their mean existence, they are incapable of using the keys to free themselves, they are the enslaved, the incurious, the brain-dead and will be for the duration of their days. Keep not their company.

  55. Morocco Bama

    It reminds me of my last regular corporate job, trying to explain to executives that they couldn’t pick and choose parts of a plan, that they were interdependent, and if they did only some it would be a clusterf*ck.

    Oh my, yes, been there and done that, and exactly the same experience. It’s one of many reasons I can never go back……to Corporatism.

  56. A loan is permission to do something, right now we give permission for people to do unproductive and/or stupid and/or actively harmful things.

    Reminds me of the mid-19th century morphing of corporations, from being chartered by government for specific large-investment endeavors to the “personhood” behemoths that are permitted to exist in perpetuity.

  57. StewartM

    Ian Welsh:

    On a theoretical level debt is necessary, yah, but a radically restructuring of how money works is necessary and that would include how debt works. A loan is permission to do something, right now we give permission for people to do unproductive and/or stupid and/or actively harmful things.

    Yes! Yes! Yes!

    I work in corporate America, and I see it all the time. Anyone who talks about “‘free market’ efficiency” vs. “government bureaucracy inefficiency” is either ideologically blind or has never worked for a private business. I have worked in the private sector all my life, and I can swap horror stories with anyone working in government. The fact is, both systems operate very much the same in practice–they share the same accounting systems, for instance, that divides money and capital up into individual department buckets so that quite literally one department would sooner let a piece of capital decay into obsolescence and disrepair unused because it was purchased with “their money” rather than to transfer to another department which *will* use it. The difference is one of perception, with government at least you do have reporters who at times will expose waste, fraud, and abuse to a much greater degree than they have access inside corporate America.

    Insofar as politics are concerned, it has long been my belief that the executives of today’s corporations run them for their own individual interest, and not out of any interest in the long-term welfare of the corporation. Else you’d see them breaking down the doors of Congress lobbying for real health care reform, which would lift the burden of health care expense from US companies and significantly improve their bottom line (and if Obama had been a *real* progressive, the first step in that direction when saving the auto industry instead of that loan and gutting UAW benefits would have been to offer to put the employees of all the Big 3 on Medicare; from what I’ve read that would have made them instantly profitable even with their other problems). But our executives don’t want that as it would translate to individually higher taxes on them personally, and they value their own after-tax incomes more than the welfare of the corporations they are entrusted to promote.

    -StewartM

  58. Notorious P.A.T.

    “I can tell you how to fix what’s wrong, and I can tell you why, but it doesn’t matter”

    I’d be glad to read what you have to say about this. I have plenty of time on my hands.

  59. Morocco Bama

    Great discussion of Peak Debt and Peak oil here. The comments are as valuable, if not more valuable, than the post itself.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8126

    I first heard this concept Peak Debt from a guy who posted at Calculated Risk. The crowd there gave him all kinds of grief, but I liked his schtick for the same reason I like Ian’s….he’s not afraid to get in people’s faces and express the cold, hard truth of the matter.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/5824/peak-debt

    I’m not saying I agree that everything he states will pan out as he says….although there’s still time for some of his specific predictions to come true because they extend through the 2020’s. However, the overall concept itself is accurate, in my opinion. The specific implications are anybody’s guess, but without a doubt, the halcyon days are a thing of the past…in fact, they never were more than just an illusion anyway, but what did it matter if illusion was one’s reality?

  60. Morocco Bama

    I’d be glad to read what you have to say about this. I have plenty of time on my hands.

    I’m afraid for him to answer it. I have a feeling he just my say “find a local gun store, secure a pistol, load it with a couple of bullets from Wal-Mart just to be redundant or in case you’re a bad shot, put said gun to your head, and pull the trigger….voila, problem solved. If you fail this ever important mission, bend over and resume taking it up the ass.”

  61. Jumpjet

    I went to see Captain America last night, and I enjoyed it a lot. It also gave me the perfect word to use in describing Obama, something that’s eluded me for a while now.

    Obama is a bully.

  62. Diana Prince

    “lift the burden of health care expense from US companies and significantly improve their bottom line (and if Obama had been a *real* progressive, the first step in that direction when saving the auto industry instead of that loan and gutting UAW benefits would have been to offer to put the employees of all the Big 3 on Medicare; from what I’ve read that would have made them instantly profitable even with their other problems).”
    —————————-
    Indeed, if I were a 11 dimensional chess playing superProg Dem President who had the House, Senate – and the Big Three by the bailout balls, I might have attached a few strings – like health insurance, no raiding of pension funds AND green hybrids with stellar gas mileage.

    Re prison – maybe their minds are already there, but I’d like to see their bodies in Rikers too 😉

  63. Ian Welsh

    A full explanation would take a book. However, some folks have been pushing me to reissue a book of essays, which would be a start, though there are parts there that wouldn’t be in a new book I wrote, because things are much more dire than they were when I wrote the essays. Those essays were presaged on the possibility of passing legislation and so on, a new book would include large sections on how to create another outside system, both for itself and as a way of forcing the normal “consumer” system to imrove itself. The loss of the communist threat, whether it was real or not (it was believed real by enough important people) was a huge loss. A new threat, one which is less evil (heck, even marginally good), is needed. Right now the elites think you have nowhere to go, not physically, but in the sense of “there’s no alternative system or ideology which would say how to create it.”

  64. anon2525

    …because things are much more dire than they were when I wrote…

    “That’s what the climate scientist said.”

  65. anon2525

    Obama is a bully.

    If by “bully” you mean “coward” and “liar,” then yes.

    From the Decider’s address this morning:

    For years, the government has spent more money than it takes in.

    Yes, it has, Decider. And where is your admission that you take responsibility for how your decisions have led to this, Decider? No mention? Lying by omission? No accepting of responsibility for all of your mistakes? Too cowardly to accept responsibility?

    Back to stating the obvious: There is nothing preventing Congress from acting. This week, the House republs at least voted on a bill, which the Senate subsequently defeated 51-46. Time for the Senate to vote on something that a majority would approve, or for the House to vote on something else. The Decider really has no say unless they let him.

  66. Jumpjet

    He picks on the weak and the helpless. He’s a bully and a thug.

  67. Celsius 233

    Formerly T-Bear PERMALINK
    July 23, 2011
    @ 233ºC
    “Let the whole lot rot in a fucking prison; …”
    Better still, that lot is already in prison, the most escape proof prison there is, prisoners of their own minds, locked behind bars of ignorance, belief and hubris, shackled to ideology, chained to the weights of propaganda and delusion, there is no escape for them. That these creatures rule the dungeon as if lords does nothing to release themselves from their mean existence, they are incapable of using the keys to free themselves, they are the enslaved, the incurious, the brain-dead and will be for the duration of their days. Keep not their company.
    ===========================================
    Ah yes, karma come full circle…

  68. Everythings Jake

    Holy S#&t, a “Super Congress.”

  69. Formerly T-Bear

    @ Everythings Jake

    Yup, “Holy S#&t, a “Super Congress.””

    I read that also, after 235 years, the constitution does not exist. It is time to quit paying for what the public is not getting – a functioning constituted government. Back to the drawing boards kids, design something that might work, the future is yours, make of it what you will and can live with; your history has been stolen from you. Finis

  70. Celsius 233

    We are all children in a vast kindergarden trying to spell God’s name
    with the wrong alphabet blocks.
    — Tennessee Williams, “Suddenly Last Summer”
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Kinda sums it up for me…
    But what makes it irrevocable is; we’re not learning the important lessons; never have been…

  71. Morocco Bama

    Let us hush this cry of progress until ten thousand years have passed.

    Tennyson, Locksley Hall 60 Years Later

  72. Celsius 233

    ^ 🙂

  73. anon2525

    … a “Super Congress.”

    And Super Optimist Ian Welsh thought the Super u.s. wouldn’t go Super Fascist until Super 2016. Anything to save the Super Banks. Just be sure to be done in time for your Super Vacation, OK, Super Congress?

    I think I’ll go have another Super Cup of Super Coffee.

  74. Formerly T-Bear

    Since it’s being done:

    I met a traveler from an antique land
    Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
    Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
    Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
    And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command,
    Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
    Which yet survive, stampt on these lifeless things,
    The hand that mockt them and the heart that fed:
    And on the pedestal these words appear:
    ‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
    Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!’
    Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
    Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
    The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

    “Ozymandias” by Percy Bysshe Shelley (1817)

    If anyone knows why this empire is different, speak now, or forever hold your piece.

  75. Ian Welsh

    It is different. Egypt was a colossus on the world stage (such as it was) for thousands of years. We don’t know how the long future will work for America, but it’s got a long way to go to equal the greatness of Egypt.

  76. anon2525

    Egypt’s economy did not destroy the natural world, or even effect it much. The economy of the industrialized world is doing that. In magnitude, the current “civilization” is worse than all of the others combined.

    Probably the greatest “civilization” that we know of, in terms of longevity, was the population that occupied the Americas mostly in harmony with nature for ten thousand years before the Europeans arrived.

  77. anon2525

    Following up on the Decider obama’s decisions to continue bush’s policies: Someone has posted this graphic which he says is from the nytimes: http://twitpic.com/5vdzkc

    It illustrates the costs of various new policies that were put in place by bush and contrasts them with new policies that were put in place by obama. This is presumably intended to show that bush is much more responsible for the current debt and its consequence for the “debt ceiling.” What is left out from the comparison is the cost of obama’s continuing those same costly programs:

    – Military operations, continued and expanded
    – Tax cuts, continued

    Also left out are the costs of not resolving the TBTF banks, the foreclosure fraud that is not being addressed, and the unemployment costs that are being paid out and the lost tax revenue from the unemployed due to the non-resolution of the financial crisis. Keeping the existing medical industrial complex in place is also adding to the growing cost of Medicare and Medicaid. And, as usual, money is being borrowed and interest costs increase.

  78. anon2525

    I forgot to include the following link in my previous post. It is a chart of fed. gov’t. debt provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve bank from 1966 to the present: Total Public (Federal) Debt.

    It can be easily seen that the rate of increase of debt has accelerated since 2008. This is because of the financial crisis/housing bubble collapsing, and the resulting recession. But the fact that it accumulating at such a high (and now accelerating) rate is due to the decisions that the Decider obama made to continue the bush/cheney policies. obama does not benefit from the housing bubble as bush&cheney did, despite bernanke’s attempts to inflate a new bubble.

    And now the Decider obama wants Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, among other gov’t. programs to be cut in order to pay for the consequences of his decisions.

  79. jo6pac

    anon2525 permalink

    July 24, 2011

    Thank You

  80. Has any government in the last few centuries had a balanced budget in wartime?

  81. Formerly T-Bear

    Rather than “kabuki”, what is being witnessed is political fraud of a scale equivalent to hyper-grand theft. Obama and the members of this congress must be removed, none are to be trusted with public office or with hands on national power. Withdraw your support for the perpetrators of this ongoing crime as well as the edifice they dishonoured and betrayed, the constituted government has been breached and cannot guarantee the security of its citizens, the government has fallen to corruption, the government is as fraudulent as its current president, the government has become illegitimate by its own long-held laws and treaties. There is nothing a citizen can do to remedy the state of the nation, it is beyond public capability to accomplish remedy, the public voice will not be heard nor advise be considered. It is still a republic, but its masters are no longer the public but the owners of the public. Deal with it!

  82. groo

    anon2525,

    i have been staring at those debt-curves for some time.

    it is always THREE debts.
    1) governmental/public
    2) private
    3) corporate

    The astonishing finding is, that total debt in different ‘western’ countries is quite similar.

    At least more similar, if You compare e.g. the public debts of maybe the US and Japan, where the US looks quite good.
    Total debt is much more similar.
    (in my phanatastic-logical-inference-days I see this as country-specific method to extract the most of the debtor-creditor- relationship, which are MORE private debt for the more individualistic countries, and more public debt for the more individualistically inclined countries. You can even include military spending in the US case and philosophize on its public-versus-private components, which continually seem to shift to the ‘private’ side –think Blackwater and the like.)

    On the other hand, there seems to be some shifting between the three, due to policy-changes or different strategies of different countries in the first place.

    Where corporate debt is the most obscure. Because of tax havens and the like.
    This is thankfully monitored by http://taxjustice.blogspot.com/ and now its US partner-site.

    So, what is obscured by that, is the basic mechanism of the relationship between individual/collective debtor and ist logical conterpart: The creditors.

    There has been some sloppy ‘statistics’ lately (Bloomberg), to indentify the relationship between in-country-debt versus foreign debt.

    With the finding, that 70% of US-debt is actually in-country-debt.

    Which means, that the dominant redistribution-‘pump’ actually is in-country, which, as surely all know here, constantly raises the GINI- index.

    So China and the other foreign debtors can conveniently serve als bogeyman, distracting from the in-country redistribution. which seems to be a valuable asset for the PTB, to have such a bogeyman.

    The BIG stick as an asset of last resort, so to say: War! the American way.
    Which frightens me, as a Foreigner, and gladly leave the 70% of the problem to You Americans to resolve.
    But won’t happen.
    Because nobody seems to be willing to make this important distinction.

    That this is not a sustainable situation, everybody able to do a little arithmetic knows, and finally it is in their bones, if they cannot resolve the ‘riddle’ by thinking/calculating.

    It is about making the obvious a ‘riddle’, where the Repubs increasingly have to resort to the Crazies (teabaggers), because for everyone else (in the whole world) it is in plain sight.

    Or am I too ‘optimistic’?

    With any retreat of reason the probability of war(s) rises accordingly.
    Communicating tubes, so to say.

  83. groo

    Seems I have to play the role of Herman the German, with some edgy moves of his limbs, revived by the benevolent Dr US-Frankenstein, who who revived the German Economy after WWII by applying some voodoo electricity by the Marshall-plan.

    Thank you guys. Now You seem to need some help by the Zombie of Your design.

    I am not very happy with that role, and actually do not want to be the Monster, healing its resurrector.

    But if the good doctor is transformed by his own methods into some some monster, and the creature, i.e. the German economy after WWII up to now seems to be healthy, but not different in kind –what to do?

    Actually ‘I’ do not feel part of this development.
    Only somehow infected, but a -hopefully- thinking individual, albeit of a different kind.

    Hope You understand.
    Thank You.

  84. jcapan

    “There is nothing a citizen can do to remedy the state of the nation, it is beyond public capability to accomplish remedy”

    T-B, always appreciate the sunshine but I disagree. Plenty can be done, up to/including dumping the fuckers in the gutter.

    Will anything (worth doing) be done? That’s another matter entirely, given the mass of men lead lives of quiet [brainwashed, anesthetized] desperation. The first step is awaking them from their Matrix-pod slumber. When dissidents move from the blogosphere to the street, it’ll begin.

  85. groo

    National identity.

    I would be equally appalled by anyone interfering with national issues, by what I have said above.

    But take care:
    You/We cannot have it both ways: Being sovereign, AND being global.
    where the question is: WHO wants to have it this way?
    Global corporations or ordinary citizens?
    Two different animals, whom we should not mix.

    We spoiled this issue.
    So, to DEGLOBALIZE down to the point of tolerability by the national populace seems to be the way to go.

    Isolationism is the trend du jour..
    No easy way, but seemingly a necessary one.
    To save ourselves.
    I do not like it, but think it is unavoidale.

    It is a question of degree, but in tendency: MORE either than less.
    (At least if You want to rescue ‘capitalism’ TM)

    How we could resolve global issues like global warming with a prescription like that, I do not know.

    One thing is clear:
    Gobal government in the near term is off the table.
    Neiter in the EU, nor much less on a global scale.

    The logical/plausible solution would be a regionalized UN-body.
    Five or so regions.

    Just to think a step further into the improbable.

    Sorry to extend the topic.
    But it belongs together.

    How these phantastic outlandish ideas could be put to work– who knows?

    On the other hand– they are almost rurally commonsensical.

  86. groo

    correction:
    …It is a NOT a question of degree, but in tendency: …

  87. anon2525

    “There is nothing a citizen can do to remedy the state of the nation, it is beyond public capability to accomplish remedy”

    T-B, always appreciate the sunshine but I disagree. Plenty can be done, up to/including dumping the fuckers in the gutter.

    It is true that there is nothing a citizen can do, but that has always been true. It’s always required collective action.

    I cannot think of anything that can be done non-violently besides protesting loudly and persistently at any public place where elected officials (and non-elected?) appear. Elections appear to have been “gamed” by the two major parties (or their primary contributors) so that elections are no longer a means to get representation. Elected officials are going to have to be told directly by the population that they cannot continue the class warfare.

    Another means would be wide-spread strikes. There are not the organizers for that at this time.

    Will anything (worth doing) be done? That’s another matter entirely, given the mass of men lead lives of quiet [brainwashed, anesthetized] desperation.

    I think that’s very possibly true (Thoreau’s “quiet desperation”), but people can reason about their interests if public discussions are held. What is lacking are the organizing structures that were used in the past: churches in the civil rights movement, unions in the labor movement. People are “quietly” desperate because they are not meeting with other people who share a common interest. Cuts to Social Security and Medicare may change this, at least for a segment of the population.

    Repeating what Ralph Nader said to Chris Hedges recently:

    While protests are useful, Nader does not see any possibility for reform until there is a widespread effort to organize a sustained and radical opposition movement.

    Nader: “…How many organizers are on the ground in the 435 districts? Could labor unions have been organized without organizers? Could the suffragist movement have been organized without organizers? Could the anti-slavery movement or the civil rights movement been organized without organizers? If you don’t have organizers on the ground you know ipso facto that your demonstration is going nowhere.”

  88. Morocco Bama

    What we need…is more of this….in droves.

    http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/07/26-13

  89. Formerly T-Bear

    @ Ian Welsh

    I used to discuss economic and social theory. A lot (back on BOP, sometimes at the Agonist and FDL.) Don’t anymore, there’s no point. I can tell you how to fix what’s wrong, and I can tell you why, but it doesn’t matter, because no one with any power wants to do it, and most Westerners don’t really want it. …

    Registering au contraire that there is not only a point but a need to your work on economic and social history that cannot be derived from the prevailing economic orthodoxy/ideology which is hard put to sustain rational thought let alone provide comprehensive overviews of current affairs. To begin, for economics to be understood it must be viewed as where economic considerations co-exist and are in conjunction with sociology, politics, history, law, anthropology, and even geography. Failure to adequately account for any of these disciplines will weaken if not destroy the possibility of finding a comprehensive economic opinion. As a highly complex subject matter where proofs are difficult if not impossible, opinion becomes a shortcut devise to enable conversation.

    All to often, as seen in the comments in these very journals posted by Ian, opinion becomes divisive to the point that distracts from necessary issues to be considered. Opinion can take on two forms, one being simple opinion, constructed from one’s past direct experiences, the other, also derived from experience but modified by external resources (e.g. reading, travel, studies, anecdotal stories and the like) that leave a patina of some consideration added to the opinion. Opinions have the same characteristics as beliefs, they are like flags unfurled to the prevailing winds, displayed to the happenstance direction of that wind. A change in condition of the wind’s direction also puts the flag (and the opinion) into unintended quarters.

    Returning to why it is important to pursue Ian’s essays is that it is necessary to establish a common definition of terms between participants in a conversation. The current state of political response to economic conditions is best put as economic babble, no coherency, (no tower), no economic solutions, cliff ahead – with real consequences. Once establishing common definitions suitable, a theory can be established (this is exactly the process used by the Chicago School of Economic Phrenology that currently overwhelms all economic thought) and alternatives be devised and considered under conditions that reflect the actual world, not a world of ideologically constrained or distorted perceptions. Without the ability to understand economic terms, it will also be impossible to understand associated political terms. Ultimately, it will take ideology to contend with ideology. An ideology based upon actuality should ultimately best those ideologies based upon belief.

    Adam Smith wrote the first economic essay(s) as a critique of the failures of mercantilism prevalent at the time to provide economic sustenance to the economic participants. Mercantilism did provide the wealth necessary to displace the feudalistic economic system and absconded with most of the political power feudalism wielded but was beset with its own internal disabilities. Today’s “capitalism” is not much more than rewarmed mercantilists with a modish coat, same disabilities apply. Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” gives an economic geography and history of his day. That economic geography and history can be put into current terms and become a basis to construct a more accurate mirror of economic functions being considered. In many ways Adam Smith pointed to a ‘greatest sum’ form of economics as opposed to mercantilist ‘zero sum’ before those terms came into use, but then reading the original can provide concepts and conclusions that no longer exist in todays anemic academia.

    Count this commenter as one who commends Ian’s continued economic essays without reservation. Of the great classical economic writers, five were English (Adam Smith, Malthus, J.S. Mill, Ricardo, J.M. Keynes) and one German (Karl Marx) whose writings have been eclipsed by the academic frauds at the University of Chicago and the Harvard School of Business. The health of a republic is dependent on the full understanding of economics, an understanding that has been occulted by a fraudulent ideology and the academic charlatans posing as authorities at those institutions. That disingenuous and deceptive guild must be broken. A new narrative is needed to displace and disgrace their malfeasant offerings.

  90. @T-Bear:

    “Count this commenter as one who commends Ian’s continued economic essays without reservation.”

    Strongly seconded. Ian’s writings have very specifically helped me to cut through much of the density (for me) of the dismal science.

  91. groo

    Morocco Bama,
    Formerly T-Bear,

    maybe I appear being a clown here, and all you wise lefties knowe the truth.

    I would hope so.
    And would hope that You actually make a differnce.

    Referring to the old authorities like Smith and Marx is somewhat helpful,
    but I must say, that ANYONE referring to hast to keep an ey on the present.
    And this is,
    a) Steve Keen,
    b) Michael Hudson
    c) William (Bill) Black

    in this order.
    a)Keen assumes that there is some mathematical essence, mediated by economic modelling.
    b) Hudson as the preeminent economist knowing history (HET) is someone i deeply admire
    c) Bill Black, who knows ‘reality’, or current practice.

    I dont know.
    Is this blog an assortment of ignorant idealists, or what?

    as T-bear writes:

    Of the great classical economic writers, five were English (Adam Smith, Malthus, J.S. Mill, Ricardo, J.M. Keynes) and one German (Karl Marx) whose writings have been eclipsed by the academic frauds at the University of Chicago and the Harvard School of Business.

    Do You want to bring owls to Athens,(i.e. readers of this blog)?

    The state of affairs is like this:

    The High Price of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors’ Failure to Read Akerlof & Romer

    by Bill Black
    http://www.benzinga.com/economics/11/07/1796051/the-high-price-of-the-presidents-council-of-economic-advisors-failure-to-rea

    I am somehow embarrassed by the intellectual Cheney-like shooting of lame ducks -or whatever- here.
    Not dumbness, ofcourse, but quite some endemic delusion of old hippie-belief or what have you.

    The elephant in the room ist clearly in sight.
    Or are You ‘lefty’ Americans not even able to see an elephant, or a violet cow, when there is one, right before Your eyes!

    Yes, You do. But You at least seem to attribute the wrong colours to it.
    Just to understand: Blowing up the planet because of colour-blindness .
    How silly is that?

    Swiss-violet-Milka-chocolate-cow.

    By which I mean: (btw, I am a hobby-Philosopher, trying to save the world in late afternoon)
    YOU OBVIOUSLY DO NOT SEEM TO BE ABLE TO SEE THE NONEXISTENT VIOLET COW, as what it is.
    A Fata Morgana.

    The deficit is not a deficit, but a convenient fiction and a virtual battle-ground.
    Between virtual debtors and creditors, connected by virtual contracts.

    You just have to believe.

    Hope You enjoy the calories.

  92. groo

    Morocco Bama,
    Formerly T-Bear,

    maybe I appear being a clown here, and all you wise lefties know the truth.

    I would hope so.
    And would hope that You actually make a differnce.

    Referring to the old authorities like Smith and Marx is somewhat helpful,
    but I must say, that ANYONE referring to hast to keep an ey on the present.
    And this is,
    a) Steve Keen,
    b) Michael Hudson
    c) William (Bill) Black

    in this order.
    a)Keen assumes that there is some mathematical essence, mediated by economic modelling.
    b) Hudson as the preeminent economist knowing history (HET) is someone i deeply admire
    c) Bill Black, who knows ‘reality’, or current practice.

    I dont know.
    Is this blog an assortment of ignorant idealists, or what?

    as T-bear writes:

    Of the great classical economic writers, five were English (Adam Smith, Malthus, J.S. Mill, Ricardo, J.M. Keynes) and one German (Karl Marx) whose writings have been eclipsed by the academic frauds at the University of Chicago and the Harvard School of Business.

    Do You want to bring owls to Athens,(i.e. readers of this blog)?

    The state of affairs is like this:

    The High Price of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors’ Failure to Read Akerlof & Romer

    by Bill Black
    http://www.benzinga.com/economics/11/07/1796051/the-high-price-of-the-presidents-council-of-economic-advisors-failure-to-rea

    I am somehow embarrassed by the intellectual Cheney-like shooting of lame ducks -or whatever- here.
    Not dumbness, ofcourse, but quite some endemic delusion of old hippie-belief or what have you.

    The elephant in the room ist clearly in sight.
    Or are You ‘lefty’ Americans not even able to see an elephant, or a violet cow, when there is one, right before Your eyes!

    Yes, You do. But You at least seem to attribute the wrong colours to it.
    Just to understand: Blowing up the planet because of colour-blindness .
    How silly is that?

    Swiss-violet-Milka-chocolate-cow.

    By which I mean: (btw, I am a hobby-Philosopher, trying to save the world in late afternoon)
    YOU OBVIOUSLY DO NOT SEEM TO BE ABLE TO SEE THE NONEXISTENT VIOLET COW, as what it is.
    A Fata Morgana.

    The deficit is not a deficit, but a convenient fiction and a virtual battle-ground.
    Between virtual debtors and creditors, connected by virtual contracts.

    You just have to believe.

    Hope You enjoy the calories.

  93. groo

    Morocco Bama,
    Formerly T-Bear,

    maybe I appear being a clown here, and all you wise lefties know the truth.

    I would hope so.
    And would hope that You actually make a differnce.

    Referring to the old authorities like Smith and Marx is somewhat helpful,
    but I must say, that ANYONE referring to has to keep an eye on the present.
    And this is,
    a) Steve Keen,
    b) Michael Hudson
    c) William (Bill) Black

    in this order.
    a)Keen assumes that there is some mathematical essence, mediated by economic modelling.
    b) Hudson as the preeminent economist knowing history (HET) is someone i deeply admire
    c) Bill Black, who knows ‘reality’, or current practice.

    I dont know.
    Is this blog an assortment of ignorant idealists, or what?

    as T-bear writes:

    Of the great classical economic writers, five were English (Adam Smith, Malthus, J.S. Mill, Ricardo, J.M. Keynes) and one German (Karl Marx) whose writings have been eclipsed by the academic frauds at the University of Chicago and the Harvard School of Business.

    Do You want to bring owls to Athens,(i.e. readers of this blog)?

    The state of affairs is like this:

    The High Price of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors’ Failure to Read Akerlof & Romer

    by Bill Black
    http://www.benzinga.com/economics/11/07/1796051/the-high-price-of-the-presidents-council-of-economic-advisors-failure-to-rea

    I am somehow embarrassed by the intellectual Cheney-like shooting of lame ducks -or whatever- here.
    Not dumbness, ofcourse, but quite some endemic delusion of old hippie-belief or what have you.

    The elephant in the room ist clearly in sight.
    Or are You ‘lefty’ Americans not even able to see an elephant, or a violet cow, when there is one, right before Your eyes!

    Yes, You do. But You at least seem to attribute the wrong colours to it.
    Just to understand: Blowing up the planet because of colour-blindness .
    How silly is that?

    Swiss-violet-Milka-chocolate-cow.

    By which I mean: (btw, I am a hobby-Philosopher, trying to save the world in late afternoon)
    YOU OBVIOUSLY DO NOT SEEM TO BE ABLE TO SEE THE NONEXISTENT VIOLET COW, as what it is.
    A Fata Morgana.

    The deficit is not a deficit, but a convenient fiction and a virtual battle-ground.
    Between virtual debtors and creditors, connected by virtual contracts.

    You just have to believe.

    Hope You enjoy the calories.

  94. Morocco Bama

    groo, why did you throw me in with your criticism of T-Bear’s post? Economists are like prostitutes….they’ll turn nice tricks for an agreed upon sum, and yet economists are held in high esteem and prostitutes are frowned upon. Go figure. Trying to understand the complexity of this system is a waste of time at this point. The complexity is a large part of the problem, because the more complex it becomes, the more cumbersome it gets, and considering the survival of the species issues with which we are confronted, we need lightning quick response and adaptation in order to minimize catastrophe (meaning significant die-off and a heretofore unwitnessed magnitude of suffering and death). Since there’s not a consensus, at least amongst us Plebes, about this very basic fact, the odds of Humanity avoiding a catastrophe, the likes of which will make the suffering and death in the World Wars pale in comparison, are slim to none. Point me to a whore….umm…I mean an Economist, held in high esteem, who is saying the same thing.

  95. groo

    Being a human with principles , versus being a mere politican/opportunist/bean-counter/Manchurian candidate.

    Norways Stoltenberg versus Obama.

    There COULD be change, even as low as firmness n position: Holding a position. against the tendency du jour.

  96. groo

    Morocco Bama,
    I am just expressing my deep frustration in an unduely manner onto the wrong people (here).
    See ‘Publikumsbeschimpfung’ by Peter Handke.

    I know this is dangerous, as can be experienced by the Norwegian freak.

    Positions drift apart, tension rises. Explosions can be expected.
    There even seems some rationality behind the actions, which need years to evaluate by our -ahem- top intellectuals. But then it is too late.

    I feel very sorry about that.

    And even risk being completely misunderstood.

  97. Formerly T-Bear

    @ Ian Welsh

    “…to discuss economic and social theory. A lot (back on BOP, sometimes at the Agonist and FDL.) Don’t anymore, there’s no point. I can tell you how to fix what’s wrong, and I can tell you why, but it doesn’t matter, because …”

    Appreciate that. Doubt the message would be heard above the noise. Each has their opinion, custom tailored to the poverty of their own experience and education, proclaiming possession of all the answers (none left over for everybody else), insisting to be heard at the top of their lungs and under a landslide of written opinion, that buries any voice not their own.

    But it would be a magnificent gift to give the grandchildren, none-the-less.

  98. Morocco Bama

    Appreciate that. Doubt the message would be heard above the noise. Each has their opinion, custom tailored to the poverty of their own experience and education, proclaiming possession of all the answers (none left over for everybody else), insisting to be heard at the top of their lungs and under a landslide of written opinion, that buries any voice not their own.

    How humble of you to describe what is uniquely you. I get the distinct feeling, silly notion, I know, that I should refer to you using “vous” versus “tu”. One man’s/woman’s message is another man’s noise, I suppose. I rather like the noise….it’s the heart beat, afterall. Without it, the Cerebrum is merely Sweet Bread.

  99. jcapan

    Mo-Ba:

    Whenever I see hostility on the left (i.e. whenever I observe the left), I think along these lines:

    “In a real revolution – not a simple dynastic change or a mere reform of institutions – in a real revolution the best characters do not come to the front. A violent revolution falls into the hands of narrow-minded fanatics and of tyrannical hypocrites at first. Afterwards comes the turn of all the pretentious intellectual failures of the time. Such are the chiefs and the leaders. You will notice I have left out the mere rogues. The scrupulous and the just, the noble, humane and devoted natures, the unselfish and the intelligent may begin a movement – but it passes away from them. They are not the leaders of a revolution. They are its victims – the victims of disgust, disenchantment – often of remorse. Hopes grotesquely betrayed, ideals caricatured – that is the definition of revolutionary success. There have been in every revolution hearts broken by such successes. But enough of that. My meaning is that I don’t want you to be a victim.”

    –Joseph Conrad, Under Western Eyes

    Remove all the would-be sadists and egomaniacal misanthropes and who’d be left? IOW, if Zinn had lived to see his vision for America enacted, he’d have been imprisoned or executed.

  100. Morocco Bama

    jcapan, it is quite the conundrum, I will concede that. Thus far, it appears the choices, for the conscious and conscientious, have been victim…..and victim.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5_ISC1EbCM

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