The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Month: June 2016 Page 2 of 3

The Gun Control Sit-In

I’m in favor of some form of gun control in the US, but this sit-in is so that people who are on the no-fly list can’t buy guns.

This is a terrible idea. There is no due process to such lists. You get on them for reasons you can’t determine, and you can’t get off them.

You do not have the right to see the evidence against you, to face your accuser, or to have any sort of trial. You’re just on it, sucker, too bad.

No punishment without a fair trial is one of the cornerstones of Western liberty and civilization. The no-fly list and all similar lists are abominations which should not exist.

If you want gun control, start by banning all assault rifles and restricting clip sizes. I’d be totally fine with banning all automatic and semi-automatic weapons, with the exception of old style pistols. Hunters should be using bolt or lever action rifles and pump shotguns (at most). Maybe then they’d learn how to shoot.

I’d extend these restrictions to the police, by the way, with a few years for phase out time.

Drop the penalties for non-violent crime, jack up the penalties for any crime committed with banned weapons; criminals actually do tend to respond to such incentives.

I think there’s a strong case to be made that the US should have properly regulated militias and that the US government has failed in its duty to make sure such exist, but I am not sold on the broader 2nd amendment argument.

I do have much more sympathy than most left-wingers for the “guns against tyranny” argument, but the US is vastly armed and it hasn’t done any good. See “no-fly list” and “most incarcerated nation on Earth.” What matters in violence is organized violence.

In any case, whatever one thinks about gun control, using the no-fly list or any similar list is a terrible idea. Western civilization spent a thousand years fighting for the right to fair trials and due process. It would be wise not to confirm the adage that all you have to do to get people to beg you to take away their rights is make them a little scared.


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The White Opiate “Epidemic” Is Not About Pain Killer Prescriptions

I’ve spent a lot of of my life in pain, and often in a LOT of pain. I’ve taken a lot of pain killers.

The best, in most cases, were opiates. Codeine and morphine (forget all the fancy pills designed to cost more, morphine does the job).

Now, in the US, white middle class people are getting addicted to opiates in large numbers and there are screams to make it harder to get opiate prescriptions for pain.

But the simple reality is this: According to the large, annually repeated and representative National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 75 percent of all opioid misuse starts with people using medication that wasn’t prescribed for them–obtained from a friend, family member or dealer.

In general, new addictions are uncommon among people who take opioids for pain in general. A Cochrane review of opioid prescribing for chronic pain found that less than one percent of those who were well-screened for drug problems developed new addictions during pain care; a less rigorous, but more recent review put the rate of addiction among people taking opioids for chronic pain at 8-12 percent.

It is already hard to find a doctor who will prescribe opiates for chronic pain. They’re worried about law enforcement coming for them, and they’re paranoid about addiction. When I was in my 20s and in a lot of pain, it took me seven doctors to find one who who would prescribe opiates, and I was in so much agony, standing from sitting down was nearly impossible and I often didn’t sit at all, knowing I might be stuck for hours.

This level of pain, in Canada, and it took seven doctors before one was willing to chance that I might not be lying. One asshole rushed me out of his office after screaming at me that I was a fucking addict who just wanted a fix.

In one of those neat catch-22’s, if I hadn’t been in so much pain, I would likely have beat him to a pulp.  (Yes, yes, I said that someone like that is someone I would have broken if I could. It took almost a month for me to find a doctor who would help me, that man put me through agony most people cannot even imagine.)

People who are in serious pain need serious pain killers. That often means opiates, sometimes it means cannabis. People who stop chronic pain sufferers from getting the pain relief they need are responsible for huge amounts of suffering.

Don’t do that.

When I was in hospital, in so much pain I could not even push myself up in bed, I said to my doctor at the time, “What if I get addicted?”

He replied, “Take the pain relief you need and we’ll worry about the addiction later.”

Later I was slightly addicted–I couldn’t sleep without a pill. One night I simply stayed up until I slept without it. As it happened, that was about a 40 hour day. But the addiction was broken, and it wasn’t much of an addiction to begin with.

Even if it had been a terrible addiction, I still would have said that the pain killers were worth it, because without them I was in so much pain I could barely walk. I remember taking well over ten minutes to walk a single block. I once ate breakfast at a restaurant standing up, because I knew if I sat down I might not be able to stand again.

Pain.

It sucks.

Don’t deprive people who need pain killers of them.


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The Continued Rise of the Populist Right

For the majority of people in most developed nations, the last 20 to 40 years have been periods of economic stagnation or decline. Their incomes have either stayed steady or dropped, while both productivity and the income of the wealthy have soared.

Since 2008, this trend has accelerated, going from “stagnation” to “decline” in many countries, including the US, Britain, and the south of Europe.

Now we have clueless wonders (in the UK, chinless wonders) trying to figure out why the populist right is rising.

They are gaining traction because most people’s lives are getting worse and the populist right offers an explanation and a cure. The explanation is mostly wrong, the cure mostly won’t work, but they have an explanation (immigrants!) and a cure (no more immigrants!).

Trump has focused on two things: immigrants and trade. Immigrants and trade.

This is not an insane explanation: Trade deals have, indeed, hurt ordinary people, and immigrants compete with the lower and working class for wages. There is an argument that immigrants bring enough demand to outweigh the supply (a.k.a., that enough jobs are created to make up for their presence by their presence), but it is not insane to say “more workers = lower wages,” when your lived experience is that you’re competing with immigrants for jobs and they are willing to take worse wages than you are.

If you are a neo-liberal you cannot be effectively against fascism or right-wing populism because the policies you support create the necessary conditions for both. You are the enablers and you have no story about how life can get better for the people who are looking for one. You’ve been in power for about 40 years now, your methods have been tried, and all they have done is make ordinary people poorer and create lots and lots of billionaires.

You may say you oppose fascism, but you are creating the conditions under which it flourishes. This is true of Cameron, Blair, Thatcher, both Clintons, both Bush’s, Reagan, and every politician who supports or supported neo-liberal policies.

You are enablers of fascism. The post-war economy was created to make sure that something like fascism could not happen again, and you dismantled it.

You worthless, greedy, foolish, stupid wastes of human skin.

To fight fascism, you must offer an explanation for why the economy keeps getting worse for ordinary people and offer a solution for it, both of which must be believable and actionable.

“Do more of the same but change our rhetoric” is not a solution. This is not a PR problem, this is a reality problem: Our elites really did fuck up the economy in most countries for most people. This is a REAL problem and people are looking for a solution.

If you are the sort of clueless putz who says “globalization and lower wages are inevitable, there is nothing we can do” you are a Nazi enabler, as well as a worthless waste of skin and a moron. (Especially as I’ve noticed that most people who say this happen to be doing just fine, thank you.)

Trump did well because he offered a problem statement and a solution (albeit somewhat incoherently). Sanders did better than any socialist has done in decades for the same reason. Corbyn is Labour leader because he offered a solution as well.

All of these people are offering solutions which are not tweaks to the status quo: They are massive changes. Slapping a 35 percent tariff on all overseas-made goods (Trump) is not a small thing, it is a radical overthrow of the current world order.

Re-nationalizing swathes of industry in the UK, which Corbyn wants to do, is also a radical change in how the country is run.

Neoliberalism is dying because it cannot offer a solution to problems it created. The problem is that it is dying in a way which may lead to a revival of fascism, an age of revolution, and an age of war.

Neoliberals are monsters. It is a philosophy born in the sentiment, “Fuck you Jack, I’ve got mine.” People who supported neoliberals (like Reagan Dems) were either clueless or monsters (or both). The results reaped by neoliberalism are exactly what was predicted by its critics.

There will be war. There will be revolution. There will fountains of blood in the streets. There will be refugee crises that make the current one look like a piss in the wind compared to a hurricane. All of this is because neoliberals ruled for 40 years and their policies are reaping exactly the results predicted by those who opposed them.

So enjoy your fascists. They won’t be going away any time soon, and if they are defeated again, it will be in rivers of blood, like last time.

That’s what you were voting for when you voted for neoliberals over and over again.


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Reaping as One Sows: Brexit Edition

European Union FlagSome polls are now showing majorities for Britain exiting the EU.

That this is surprising to many is surprising to me. The status quo has been failing the majority of British for going on 40 years now.

The EU is part of the status quo. A lot of people will vote against it.

The jobs have rushed in London and London is unaffordable, because the government refuses to create and enforce laws against absentee owners who neither live in nor rent their property. The financial collapse saw the banks made whole and the people slaughtered. Good jobs have been gushing out of England for two generations now.

Once more: Repeated failure causes people to despise whoever they consider to have been in charge during the repeated failures. Britain has been part of the EU for a long time.

This same dynamic is working for Trump and it worked for Sanders. It is why Corbyn is now Labour leader and not some Blairite, “New Labour” sort.

These are the early spasms. If things keep getting worse (and they will), there will be spasms of real violence.

I have no sympathy left for all this. Too many people on all sides failed and failed and failed. Too many people wanted to believe in absolute bullshit: “We can all pay less taxes and be greedy bastards and get rid of regulation and send our industry overseas and it will all work out wonderfully because the market fairy will always ensure we live in the best of all worlds.”

You have exactly what you or someone else fought for you to have. Nothing more. Your lords and masters cut deals with proles only when they have no choice. Cameron and Blairite Labour types want you to live a life of complete misery, because they believe you are useless wastes of space who are lazy and are the reason why Britain is in decline.

It’s all on the proles; it certainly isn’t on the people who have led Britain for the past 40 years, because they know they are the bestest, and brightest, and the hardest working, so it sure as hell couldn’t be them.

You are walking meat-sacks with no intrinsic worth to your masters. They will give you as little as they can get away with, and your suffering, or your death, means nothing to them. To look at how pathetic and worthless you are simply reinforces their knowledge of how wonderful they are.

These people regard you as their meat, if they think of you at all. You should think of them in the same way. Any MP or CEO or executive who has repeatedly worked against you is your enemy. And that is almost all of them.

Most politicians aren’t your friends. Their job is to fleece you for corporate masters. There are rare exceptions, like Corbyn, but they are exceptions and you can tell them in part by the relentless hatred the rest of the master class has for them. Men like Corbyn (and FDR in the day) are traitors to their own people, and they are treated like traitors.

So Brits may well leave the EU. Doubtless they will be punished, because leaving neo-liberal organizations must be met with pain, or other people might do the same. International organizations like the EU, IMF, and WTO are how the elites make sure that neo-liberalism continues, because their rules make it impossible to run non-neo-liberal economies.

A lot of this is ugly, of course. Because the left won’t lead, the front men are right-wing nativists and racists, who at least have the guts to fight.

In a sense, this is hopeful. Almost the entire establishment is for staying in the EU and a lot of British have just tuned them out. Not listening to the master-class’s lies is the fist step in being free.

So, I am not running around scared of Brexit. I don’t much care whether Britain stays or leaves. That puts me on the outside of the cultural left’s consensus, but so be it. Leaving the EU will make things worse for Britain, but it will also free Corbyn to do what is necessary if he wins. We will see how it plays out.


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Trump vs. Clinton

This is the problem that Democrats are ignoring:

It is simply not clear that Trump will harm more brown people than Clinton, because she has a record of being good with killing brown people in large numbers.

Now Trump has said all sorts of things at this point. Who knows what he’ll do? I get that, but here’s what I also get: We all know what Clinton will do.


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Identity Politics and Interest

identity2Identity is not nonsense.

The stats on rape or attempted rate for women are somewhere between one in four and one in six. Those are high stats.

Women earn less money than men in general. Yes, an unmarried, white professional woman without children probably does as well or even better than an equivalent male, but a lot of women want to get married or have children and not suffer financially for it. (Males do better when married.)

If you are black, you get about half the interview request from resumes that a white would on the same resume. You are subject to “driving while black.” For the exact same crime, you are more likely to be arrested, you are more likely to be convicted, and, if convicted, you will almost certainly suffer a greater penalty than a white would.

As a result, you have interests in common with other people with the same ethnicity. This is true of males, whites, Latinos, and so on. White males are an identity group with shared interests.

Identity is not a bad parser of interest. You do have interests in common with the average person of the same identity. Especially given identities which usually cannot be chosen like your biological sex or your skin color.

There are three issues with identity and interest.

The first is that not everyone who has the same identity markers as you puts their identity as their most important interest. Obama is black. He has done very little for blacks as blacks.  There are plenty of woman politicians who do nothing for other women, including on basic women’s issues- like abortion.

This is the second issue. Identity as, say, evangelical Christians may be more important to them, or they may simply be acting out of more narrow self-interest.

Since it is the topic du jour, let’s discuss Sanders and Clinton.

Bernie is as good as Clinton in feminist issues, better on race issues (at least according to Black Lives Matters and, well, Clinton’s record), and better on economic issues.

There is a tendency to assume clustering. If a person is a lesbian (in Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, in the US, Liz Cheney), many assume she is also a left-winger in general. Wynne has been very good on gay issues in Ontario, but she is terrible on economic issues. She is a neo-liberal economically, a left-winger socially.

This is super common. Clinton is a left-winger for women, and a conservative for pretty much everything else. She has no actual beliefs on non-female social issues. If it is politically expedient, she’ll talk about black super predators and support terrible criminal policies which punish blacks. She’ll be against gay marriage. But she’ll be for this stuff, too, if she thinks it’s expedient.

Identity does not have to cluster. It is less likely to cluster in important people, who identity strongly with other important people.

This leads to the third issue: You have interests as your primary identity, but you have other interests with which you may not identify as strongly (or not strongly enough to vote or act on them).

Poor whites who want to keep down ethnicities and thus vote hard conservative are hurting their economic class interests, yes. But they are competing with new immigrants for a lot of the same bad jobs. Business owners whine that native born Americans don’t want shitty jobs, but they’ll do them if they pay more, and are treated better. Minus immigrants, a lot of jobs that couldn’t be moved overseas would have to pay more and treat people better.

This is not irrational. It is based on daily lived experience. It is, I believe, a mistake.  Immigration is a secondary effect, and there are better ways to make labor markets tight, which generally involve what an economic left-winger would call “class solidarity.”

From an identity point of view, class solidarity is just taking your class identity as a primary interest.

Still, there is no question, you can hurt yourself really, really badly by parsing the world in identity terms. Most of the people who voted for Clinton in the primary will do worse under her than they would have with Bernie as President.

Clinton can be expected to continue neo-liberal policies. Under Obama, those policies made only about the top three to five percent of the US population better off. If you aren’t in that class, Bernie is a better bet. Again, he’s as good as Clinton on women’s issues, and better on race and economics.

Most people don’t think this way. They don’t go the extra steps. They choose a primary identity, assume anyone else with the markers is like them, and vote on that identity.

They may also simply decide that the identity IS more important than their other interests. I doubt most Clinton supporters would admit “I”ll lose money under Clinton, a lot more people will die overseas, but I think having a woman as President is more important because it will change how people think about gende–even if Bernie’s policies were every bit as good.”

Most wouldn’t, but some certainly do. And that is the implicit argument.

If you want to change behaviour, your job is to change the cluster with whom people identity. This isn’t some post-modern realization; communists, socialists, and Marxists have been obsessed with this issue for as long as they have existed (read Mobilization theory for the Marxist/Conflict Theory take).

People use shorthands to think. They mostly don’t think, actually–they use emotion to make decisions. This is a really good way to make decisions as a hunter-gatherer in a band where you’ve known everyone since you or they were born, whichever is shorter, and where most decisions are about environments you know very well and where, if you fuck up, you’re very likely dead.

It is a bad way to make decisions in our world, where you don’t really know important people, where most decisions will kill you years down the road, not now, and where lots of people are effectively con-artists using your mental shortcuts to fleece you.

Being gay, or female, or colored is a really strong asset when dealing with most modern left-wing types because they tend to assume clustering, discount sell-outs and not understand that their assumptions are being used against them by con-artists.

This is the critique of modern identity. That it has led to a lot of bad decisions about who to trust and that biological marker identity is often not the most important identity.

Is that right? I suppose it depends. Some groups have done very well in this era–gays, for example.

But others, like women in the US (losing effective abortion treatment, but a general reduction in rape), have mixed records; while still others have done terribly over the last few decades (African Americans). The Black Congressional Caucus has been particularly bad for poor blacks, and includes some of the biggest recipients of, for example, payday loan industry money.

Visible identity is a terrible parser of whether someone will act in your interests, especially if you assume clustering. This is especially true when someone has a record, like Clinton and Sanders do. We know who they are, because they have very long records.

So, identity is basic to humans. It is a way of quickly making sense of the world and choosing who you can trust because they have interests and experiences in common with you. But it has serious limits. It is subject to manipulation. And which identity you take as primary is very important if you’re going to make decisions based on identity.

Women are right to think men keep them down; blacks are right to think that whites keep them down; gays that straight people are a problem.

Etc.

But that does not always mean that someone who has the visible signs of that identity will act on those interests when in power (i.e., Blacks and Obama). Even if it does, it does not mean they will act on clustered interests (economic, local, your industry).

Those interests might, an outside observer would think, outweigh the pure identity interests. If you lose your job and wind up on the street, an economic populist might point out, the rest of it is crap.

But for those who are trying to change how people act, the real lesson of identity is that changing how people think about identity matters.

And perhaps the other lesson is to teach people just not to trust anything powerful people say, but instead watch what they do, because powerful people are far more likely to be con-artists than Jane or Joe on the street.


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How Bernie Gives Hope for the Future

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Sanders-021507-18335- 0004

A self-identified socialist won 22 states.

He did FAR, FAR better than any left-wing candidate has in years. Yes, he lost, but he showed very clearly that the country IS changing.

He won super-majorities of young people.

The model under which I have been operating for some time, following Stirling Newberry, is that the US doesn’t have a real chance at change until 20-24, because older cohorts need to die and younger cohorts need to replace them.

I am uninterested in “convincing” most people who voted for Clinton of anything. They are not reachable. To reach them, a candidate like Bernie would have to compromise himself so far that he couldn’t do the right things upon getting into office.

This is not the 2000s or 90s. This is not the age of compromise. The fruits of neoliberalism, neoconservatism, and oligarchy are being reaped; the youngsters have now grown up and never known a good economy. Many barely remember a time when the US wasn’t at war.

Clinton or Trump will have their time. There will be another socialist candidate and another, whether called that or not. Odds are that either fascism or socialism will win the US. The conditions in the US make that most likely.

As for Clinton supporters, they won. That is reasonable. Most Democrats did want Clinton. More Republicans did want Trump–and most Independents (now the most left-leaning group in America) wanted Sanders.

The Democrats are the conservative party right now. They are about the status quo: Keep neo-liberaling, keep bombing and invading brown people’s countries, keep shoveling money to the rich.

Republicans under Trump are the right-wing populist party.

Clinton supporters were not Sanders to win, because Sanders could not be Sanders and win them.

Most of the worst catastrophes are already locked in. Acidification of the oceans, loss of essentially all fish stocks, far worse climate change than the current consensus models, and the rise of fascism, men-on-horseback, and radical leftists.

The time to cut that stuff of was the 2000s. Obama was the last chance, and Obama chose to bail out oligarchs.

So now we play it out. But Bernie has been a hopeful sign, a sign that the youngs have had enough. Whether they will stay that way, we will see. But I think they will, because they have little choice: They are not the children of prosperity like the Boomers–their backs are against the wall. They win, or their lives are garbage. Those are the stakes for them.

So we wait, and we see. But Bernie lost in a genuinely hopeful way, showing that a socialist is now viable in the US and that young people are massively against the status quo.

That matters.


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Well America Has Their Thatcher; Congratulations?

Hillary Clinton Secretary of State PortraitIf Clinton becomes President she will kill and impoverish a lot more people than Sanders would have.

If Trump becomes President, well, Sanders was more likely to win a general election against him.

Bernie might be flawed, but he was significantly better than Clinton on almost every axis than Clinton.

If you are one of Clinton’s retainers, she will take care of you. ‘Grats.

If you are in the top 3 percent of the population, you should do well under her policies.

Everyone else will do badly under her policies, or no better than they would have under Bernie.

As for brown people overseas, well, no one who voted for Clinton actually gives a shit about whether they live, die, or suffer.


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