Thirty percent to 29 percent for the Republican/UDI coalition, with the socialists (who aren’t actually socialists), coming in at 22 percent.
Many political analysts stressed the impact of the Paris terror attacks could have on voters’ opinions. They contributed to raise the popularity of the three main parties, but the far right has also especially benefitted.
Another factor was the fact that the social democrat government of Francois Hollande has been losing more and more support among the population for failing to solve the issue of high unemployment rates while implementing measures of economic austerity (i.e. restrictions on public spendings). (sic)
There is nothing worse for the left than “center left” parties who follow right wing policies like austerity.
As I, and others, have warned repeatedly, if other groups cannot solve the very real problems exaggerated by austerity, voters will eventually hand power over to real radicals with a mandate to do “whatever it takes,” and I do mean “whatever.”
The radicals may be to the left or the right, but every time someone like Hollande takes power as “left” and then wimps out on actually fixing things, it discredits the left.
The fascist right will continue to rise as the center, right, and center-left all hue to neo-liberal orthodoxy, which got us into this mess and cannot get us out of it.
And so, the men and women on horseback are coming. In America we have Trump, in France they have LePen, and there will be many others.
A government which continually fails the people will be replaced, one way or another.
We live in a pre-revolutionary and pre-war world and the risks are ratcheting up every year. It is this that those of us who fought the ideological wars of the early 2000s were trying to avoid. We wanted changes made that would not require vast war and revolution, because we knew, and still know, the river of blood from which such change is born.
We had our chance. We failed, as those who came before us failed. Aye, and those before them.
And so the world will convulse in blood and terror. The old regimes are not yet dead, but they are bleeding out, and as they do so, they continue to loot and fornicate, pretending all is well enough.
And why not? Those who made this world are the richest rich the world has ever known. To them, this is the best of times.
They will reap as they have sown, but those who failed to stop them, or rather, their children, will reap an even more bitter harvest.
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thwap
I think we’re headed towards something awful too. And the insane/stupid people still control the narrative. So even when they fail, and things turn to crapola, they’ll have lots of foot-soldiers to attack the scapegoats. (Of whom, we’ll be some.)
ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®©
There is nothing worse for the left than “center left” parties who follow right wing policies like austerity.
Agreed, look at what the corporate Dems have done for/to us in the U.S.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/democratic-blues-121561
~
Ivory Bill Woodpecker
The elites believe they will survive and rule, no matter what happens. I’m not certain they’re wrong about that.
Ivory Bill Woodpecker
@Thunder: Do you come here to say the things you’re not allowed to say on Driftglass’s blog, like I do?
Ian Welsh
I’ll write that up as an endorsement. “Gotta say it somewhere, no one else will let me”.
Errr, maybe not…
Ivory Bill Woodpecker
@Ian: Drifty’s a good soul, but he feels guilty about making any but the mildest criticisms of Obummer, even though Drifty has probably never said or done one racist thing in his life.
He was a perfect mark for the Democratic Establishment’s 2008 “Non-Support of Obama is Racism” trope.
Ivory Bill Woodpecker
Trump will become President of the USA if, and only if, the Deep State wants him.
If not, a scandal will be found, or manufactured–or a “lone nut” or “terrorist” will appear and shoot, or Trump’s airplane will crash “accidentally”.
Ivory Bill Woodpecker
Oh, I forgot one other possibility–the unaccountable, computerized voting machines will simply be adjusted to favor Hillary, if she does not actually get more votes.
Mel
So who is this we, and what do we do to avoid the river of blood?
After all, it’s not like we failed: somebody else failed for us. Only that stupid public can’t tell the difference.
Ivory Bill Woodpecker
I agree with Mel on this one.
As Spidey said, “With great power comes great responsibility.”
This implies that with zero power comes zero responsibility.
Jeff Wegerson
We could do anything we wanted. If everybody did x then we could get y result. Or if enough people did x then y. We just need to figure out how many is enough for a given x and which y is the one we want. That’s all.
DMC
Old Vulcan saying: “Only Nixon could go to China.” As has been suggested, it may be that things have to get worse before they get better. Americans(at least) will take a very great deal to stir them out of complacency. And even then, they may fall prey to the first charasmatic type who says “Follow me!” and “I have a plan” and marches a quarter of them off to the gulag.
VietnamVet
Foreign armies and militias in Syria/Iraq are Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the United States.
Plus, there are thousands of volunteer foreign fighters supporting the Islamic State and fewer aiding the Kurds.
Foreign Air Forces bombing Syria/Iraq are Russia, Turkey, United States, France, United Kingdom and Israel. Jordon, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have ceased bombing for now. Germany will assist the West’s bombing campaign.
This is a World War. The left will not admit this. Its acquiescence to the perpetual war against Islam and the proxy wars fought against Russia are the causes of the current blowback. The radical right will use economic austerity and fear to seize power. That is unless Russia and the USA get into an apocalyptic end of days war first.
Spinoza
@Mel
The only power we have is popular power. We do not have riches, reach, or resources. If the public remains resistant to our vision then we, as radicals or populists or whatever, are indeed the ones who have failed. Without people-power we are nothing. To prevent the river of blood or the slow tide of tyranny will demand a dam of people refusing to be damned.
Steeleweed
“When you have a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, the government is only as good as the people.”
h/t Stonekettle Station –
http://www.stonekettle.com/2015/11/gravity.html
Now it’s “A government of the people, by the plutocrats and for the plutocrats.”
We as a people have in fact failed, seduced by the crumbs of the riches looted from the periphery of the empire.
Mandos
Libération proposes that anti-FN voters in France now have to unite to stop the FN, suggesting that this can only be accomplished by voting for Sarkozy the next time around.
http://www.liberation.fr/france/2015/12/06/ennemi_1418769
Rough, unprofessional translation: “As the victor the coming Sunday in many regions, the FN could gain the managerial credibility that it is missing, reassuring tempted voters who still doubt and making use of a platform and means that it lacked until today. A third of the French public has voted for them. But two thirds do not want their politics. Under these conditions, the classical logic of the principal enemy must come into effect. Between the right and the extreme right, we must choose the lesser evil. Every republican must understand that the worst is yet to come — and do everything to avoid it.”
Whether or not you agree, to me the biggest point (and danger) is the obtainment of managerial experience and credibility. That is the thing that left-wing alternatives have never taken seriously and usually lack.
S Brennan
Except Ian;
Trump wants to preserve SSI, or increase it…and he think the Russians are doing us a favor in Syria. He also think the idea of hiring terrorists to effect regime change is as dumb as regime change itself. Whatever his rhetoric, his policy on things that he could have actual control of is to the left of Obama & Hillary.
Now granted, Obama & Hillary, whatever their rhetoric are in actuality right wing thugs, so it’s not hard to be to the left of either of them.
Cloud
What Brennan says, I’ve noticed that too.
different clue
What Brennan and Cloud say, I’ve noticed that three.
S Brennan
oh to be able to edit a post….
Ian Welsh
Yes, there is a chunk of stuff where Trump is to the left of Clinton, et al. I’ve noticed that and even written on it. But his willingness to demonize the other inside American society appears to rise to the level of fascism. I don’t say this lightly, I gave Trump a lot of rope.
dgfb
People forget that the lesser-evilists actually prevailed in Weimar Germany, rallying under the slogan “Better a zero than a Nero”. (I.e. better Hindenburg than Hitler.)
Moderation won the day, Hindenburg won the presidency…and went on to appoint Hitler Chancellor.
Oops.
jklf
He was a perfect mark for the Democratic Establishment’s 2008 “Non-Support of Obama is Racism” trope.
It’s not really believable that 7 years on he still doesn’t see through such a transparent ploy, though.
S Brennan
If you look at history, not everybody who says stuff to get NOMINATED actually follows up, after the nomination…indeed, the blowhards have a long history of doing the opposite. JFK springs to mind.
Or you could compare Wilson to Teddy Roosevelt. Urbane talking Wilson would never declare his racism* publicly, but he acted on it with a unique vigor. Teddy, always a loose cannon wound getting power and using it to great benefit of US society…one would have never guessed that from his rough campaign language.
Trump would hardly be the first man to go full macho to secure a nomination, only to change overnight for the general. Keeping the fascist right off your back with outrageous statements is an old play, I’m surprised so few commenters on the left know of it….but clearly, the right does and they VERY worried about Trump getting through and turning left.
*and I am glad it’s finally getting called out, it’s been a national disgrace for a while.
Ivory Bill Woodpecker
SB–Yeah, I wish we could edit posts, too. Sometimes I make multiple posts, because I have afterthoughts after I post. (Honest, Ian, I’m not trying to spam your blog.) :blush:
BDBlue
The problem, it seems to me, is that when any politician flames the hatred of the other, it’s not as easy to walk away from as, say, a promise to pass Card Check. Because the strong emotion released against those unlucky enough to be on the receiving end of the rhetoric is not easily bottled back up and can come out in ugly ways beyond and separate from whatever policies the politician may or may not pursue if he or she is elected.
Olivier
Correction: to hew, not to hue to something.