Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: Venezuela

The Big, Wet Venezuelan Coup Flop

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On May 1, 2019

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Maduro

Well, it seems to have gone pretty much nowhere. A big flop. Far from being a dictator, Maduro appears to be running for the most forgiving person in power on the planet. A dictator would have had Guiado shot; a normal politican would have had him arrested for treason by now.

Remember when the CIA was feared for being good at coups? (Well, to be fair, they’re still racking up some: The Color revolutions and Maidan, in particular.)

One of the reasons the US keeps invading and bombing countries is that the CIA keeps failing; they couldn’t overthrow Saddam, Khomeini, Assad, Castro, or Gaddafi. The black boys having failed, the military is then the last resort.

It would be better if the US just let other countries run their own affairs and dealt with whoever wound up in charge. The coups usually backfire (as with overthrowing Iran’s elected government and installing the Shah), and the wars leave failed states and refugee crises behind, while fueling violent terrorism and powerful militias. But some empires never learn, I guess.

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The Coup Attempt in Venezuela

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On January 24, 2019

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So, Juan Guaido has declared himself the President of Venezuela. (He wasn’t elected as such.)

The US and Canada have recognized him, along with Brazil, Argentina, and Peru, among others. (Freeland, the Canadian Foreign Minister did so while on stage with Brazil’s Bolsonaro, who won an election after his main opposition was locked up. The person responsible for that is now his Minister of Justice.)

All perfectly above board, I guess.

I’ve never been a huge fan of the Bolivaran revolution, mostly because it was mismanaged. But this is clearly a foreign-supported coup against an elected leader. Venezuela’s election was no more compromised than, say, the 2000 US election–or many other elections.

It’s probably just a coincidence that Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves.

The Venezuelan situation is complicated, but there appears to be no question that the opposition forces (pale, middle, and upper class) have done everything they could to sandbag the government, up to and including destroying consumer goods so they could enhance shortages. Meanwhile, Maduro has generally had the support of the darker-skinned, lower classes descended from Indians.

Meanwhile, the US, of course, has punitive sanctions on Venezuela.

The Bolivaran revolution has not been well managed, but the criticism that “socialism always fails, because the US always makes it fail” is looking more and more valid.

The US has said “all options” are possible if Maduro crushes the opposition, which is code for using military force.

Maduro, of course, is perfectly within his rights to use force to capture someone declaring themselves President without being elected.

This has been coming for some time.

So far, despite his various failings, Trump has not been as bad as Obama simply because he has not started a war. (Yes, yes, he has been nastier to various people in the US rather than people who live in other countries.)

If he starts a war here, this will no longer be the case.

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A Quick Note on Venezuela

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On August 5, 2017

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The common cry in right-wing circles to anyone who suggests anything resembling socialism is: “It failed in Venezuela.”

What failed in Venezuela was being a petro-economy, not diversifying the economy. Chavez spread money around, but was never able to get off oil.

When you combine that with US hostility, which included sanctions and robust support for opposition groups, along with the world system’s basic set up at this time (which is meant to make it impossible for countries to be able to meet their own needs), you have Venezuela’s downfall.

None of this is hard to predict. Back in 2004 or so, on the late BOP news, I wrote an article criticizing how Chavez was running the economy, very specifically on these exact points.

Socialism works when it is done correctly, just as capitalism does. Back in the 30s, if you were a capitalist, every time you tried to argue in it’s favor, I’m sure someone would say, “What about the Great Depression?”

It is also, again, hard to run a socialist economy in this world economy, because the world’s super power and most of the great powers will be hostile. If socialism is seen to work, after all, it could threaten the wealth and power of those who run capitalist countries.

I favor a mixed economy, with some role for the free market. But Venezuela’s problems prove nothing except that resource economies are vulnerable and that the world system and its super powers are hostile to socialists.

(See also: 7 Rules For Running A Left Wing Government.)

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What the Melian Dialogue tells us about the End of Empire (Venezuelan security threat edition)

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On March 10, 2015

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The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

I’ll just point out that in no way can Venezuela be considered a security threat to the United States.  And the “human rights violations”, while some are real are far less than routinely committed by many US allies, including Saudi Arabia, while Venezuela is more democratic, again, than many countries the US has not imposed sanctions on.

This sort of bullying is exactly the sort of thing which will lead to the end of American hegemony.  Though less severe, one is reminded of the Melian dialogue.  The Athenians argue that the powerful do as they will and the weak as they must, and that the Melians should surrender.  If they do not, the Athenians will slaughter the men and sell the women and children into slavery.

The Melian reply in part, is thus:

But do you not recognise another danger? For, once more, since you drive us from the plea of justice and press upon us your doctrine of expediency, we must show you what is for our interest, and, if it be for yours also, may hope to convince you: Will you not be making enemies of all who are now neutrals? When they see how you are treating us they will expect you some day to turn against them; and if so, are you not strengthening the enemies whom you already have, and bringing upon you others who, if they could help, would never dream of being your enemies at all?

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The irony of the Melian dialogue is that both sides are right: the Melians are destroyed, and would have been better off if they submitted.  But the destruction of Melos is indeed one of the contributing factors to the eventual fall of Athens, because while Sparta may be nastier internally, they are also less dangerous to other city-states than Athens is.

The analogy is not perfect, because even with all of Venezuela’s problems, much of the population is better off resisting the US than it would be conceding (the poor and the darker colored citizens have benefited immensely under the Bolivaran revolution).

But America, and the West’s continued insistence that nations will kneel or suffer is very similar and is already damaging American power.

The Venezuela edition of “imports will kill’ya”

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On January 30, 2015

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So, the New York Times has an article on how Venezuelan stores are running out of basic goods, because they import so much, and with the drop in oil prices, they don’t have enough hard currency to buy what they need.

Repeat after me for the 100th time, “all resource booms end.”

All of them.  Always.  Gold, oil, rubber: it always ends.  Period.  The question is only when.

Back around 2004, myself and Stirling pointed on the late (and defunct) BOP News that Chavez was screwing up his revolution.  That’s not a way of saying I disapprove of his goals, I very much agree with what he was doing in general terms. But in specific, he was not making his country independent of high oil prices.

What a country needs it must either be able to produce, or have product it knows it can sell to someone who can produce what it needs, and who is a reliable partner. (No Western country is a reliable partner to an actual left wing revolutionary government.)

Period.

If you do not, things may go well for a long time, but you are ALWAYS vulnerable to the hegemonic economic state and its allies.  Right now that’s the West.  For a long time, if the West were jerks to you, you could run to the USSR, but right now there is no complete replacement, though China, as leader of the BRICS, is coming on strong.

Note that when the USSR fell, Russian support for Cuba almost entirely went away.

It was a huge shock, but Cuba survived it.

Chavez was a great friend of Castro’s, but he did not learn from Castro.  He did not figure out how his country could survive being cut off from what amounted to essentially it’s only source of support (in his case, oil sales).

Now Venezuelans pay the price.

Learn the lesson.

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