Wikileaks has dumped a bunch of internal Stratfor documents, which they presumably received from Anonymous. Years ago I used to read Stratfor’s briefs. After a while I stopped, because their economic analysis was absolutely awful, straight up cookie cutter consensus macro, which missed the important events. Since Stratfor’s briefs were supposed to give insight into what was going to happen, and since they were wrong about something so important, I decided they weren’t worth reading except as a gloss on what a certain part of the foreign policy establishment was thinking (the guys who think they’re cowboys.)
I think that Michael Brenner’a appraisal of Stratfor themselves, that they’re a immature, unprofessional and hustlers is true. The incredulity, reading them, is “people pay for this?”
Which leads to the question of how much of worth there is in the files. The main problem isn’t whether the files are really from Stratfor, I believe they are, the problem is that Stratfor seems somewhat clueless. So, for example, if true, that Russia and Israel sold out those who bought military equipment from them is fascinating and important:
According to the leaked document, Israel gave Russia the “data link codes” for unmanned aerial vehicles that the Jewish state sold to Georgia, and in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for Tor-M1 missile defense systems that Russia sold Iran.
I’m inclined to believe it, but really, who knows. I should add that countries who are serious about their defence, really should make their own equipment if they can.