Quick thoughts on potential Turkish responses
Ian believes that in a conventional war between Turkey and Israel that has escalated to full-scale armored warfare, the Turks have a significant advantage of having a larger, well trained, NATO-equipped army that actually has successful combat experience against guerrilla forces. The Turkish order of battle is impressive, but I think the logistics would not work for a large scale (corps or greater) attack into Gallilee from either Syria or Lebanon.
Update: I might add that in the case of a war between Turkey and Israel, if Turkey is serious, unless Israel uses nukes, my money is on the Turks. They have a huge armored corp, and the nations between Israel and Turkey aren’t going to say no if Turkey asks for access (because if they do, Turkey will just roll right through them.) Also if Turkey and Israel goes to war, it’s at least 50/50 the Egypt jumps in as well.
The problem is the road and rail network leading from Turkey to central Lebanon and Syria is not particularly dense. The Israeli air force has proven it can routinely penetrate Syrian and Lebanese air defenses. Turkish air defenses are optimized for fixed location defense instead of protecting mobile formations. Strike aircraft can create choke-points where any Turkish or Syrian forces will have to wait for engineers to repair and mobile air defense units to defend. Rinse and repeat several dozen times over three hundred kilometers and the Israeli worse case scenario of fighting a multi-front war against Western equipped foes does not materialize as Egypt would not get into such a fight where most of the IDF ground forces would have several days to a week to focus on Egyptian forward forces.
More importantly from the Turkish perspective is that a full-scale confrontation with Israel leads to strategic logistical failure instead of merely the operational failure I outlined above. Most of the Turkish air force is US designed, even if the air frames are assembled in Turkey. This means the Turkish air force is dependent upon a steady supply of American spare parts. Spare parts would be one of the first areas Congress would cut-off in support of Israel even as US cargo jets landed at Tel Aviv to deliver rush orders for the IAF. The same situation applies for a smaller portion of the Turkish Army’s heavy equipment. Only the Turkish Navy has few critical Achilles heels that the US could pierce by withholding spare parts as most of the Turkish Navy is German designed.
Full scale armored warfare does not make logistical sense for Turkey even if we assume a no-nuke scenario. Furthermore, it does not make strategic sense for Turkey to go to the mat for what is basically an insult to the flag instead of a threat to a vital interest. What would make sense for Turkey would be a punitive expedition or a coercive step that plays to Turkish strength (political, diplomatic and military) instead of Israeli strengths.
The Turkish Navy has fourteen modern, German designed submarines. It also has a reasonably large and modern frigate force with air defense capacity. The Israeli Navy is a coastal defense force with minimal deep-water anti-submarine or anti-surface capability. The Israelis have five modern German submarines, but at least three are tasked to monitor and threaten Iran. Two submarines, a trio of corvettes and a few light anti-sub helicopters can not protect Israeli trade from any Turkish distant blockade threat.
That again, would be a major escalation and could have unpredictable repercussions. The predictable repercussion of splitting NATO if the US Navy was ordered to escort merchant ships into Israeli Mediterranean ports is already severe.
Turkey has other ways of demonstrating its displeasure. There are a wide array of Turkish responses short of full-scale military invasion that play to Turkey’s advantages instead of Israeli advantages. Naval, intelligence and training responses are far more likely than any ground or offensive air operations.
The easiest is for the Turks to be very friendly with Iran, including sharing information with Iranian air defense planners concerning Israeli training patterns and proclivities. Further engagement in a low enriched uranium for medium enriched uranium escrow account holding for Iran is another easy step for Turkey to tell the Israelis to piss into the wind. Kicking the Israelis off Turkish training ranges will also be a very easy step for the Turks to take.
Full scale war between Israel and Turkey over this matter does not make enough sense for any of the major decision players at this time.
oh, you’re probably right, but when you send in military ships like that, the possibility of unintended escalation is always there. Let’s say the Israelis sink a couple Turkish ships with their air power… how are the Turks going to respond to that?
I do think such a war would be over in a few weeks, making the strategic supply issues not that critical, though it could be that Turkey has more shallow supplies than I think.
I think that you’re probably right, Dave. Full-scale, conventional war seems unlikely. And realistically, the other options Turkey has are probably far more damaging to Israel than a war.
But Ian has a point too. Assuming that the Turks put a naval escort on the next relief ship, a lot of things come to a head. Will Israel allow the blockade to be broken? Will the Turkish navy steam into Israeli waters? What happens if the Israelis sink a Turkish ship and 100 sailors die?
This situation calls for some serious statesmanship from a nation allied with both Turkey and Israel. Unfortunately we have Obama, Biden and Clinton. At least two are beholden to Israel and none of them show the least bit of aptitude for foreign relations…much less very delicate ones. The situation being made worse by Obama’s characteristic aversion to decision making.
though it could be that Turkey has more shallow supplies than I think.
I agree with this but this is Turkey we are talking about and not being as smart as everyone here I don’t remember in their history were they stepped aside or gave up. I truly hope this has a end were the citizens of Gaza and all others finally seen the light at the end of a tunnel that they didn’t start that is not death. This week will be interesting in that Obummer has a new small detail to deal with. The vote is he rolls over to support Israel?
I bet bp is happy to may be taken off the front page. I’m all for taking their asset in Amerika away, but it will never happen
While you are probably correct, I think that the one faulty assumption is that Turkey is a totally rational actor in the terms that you have announced.
You cannot underestimate the value of pride. Particularly as they would need to appease their domestic public.
In my mind, the Turks are pissed for a number of reasons. They are pissed for sitting in purgatory waiting for the EU to marry them and wondering if they ever will. They are pissed that to do so, they have had to crack down on islamic sentiment in the country to keep the state secular, which is not particularly publicly popular. They are additionally pissed that while the US funnels billions upon billions to protect Israel from their terrorists, the US don’t give a flying f*ck about their terrorists. So, you have to ask, at what point does Turkey say “I’ve had enough?”
And let’s not forget the long-term view.
If there’s bad blood between Turkey and Israel, it doesn’t matter to Turkey at all. they may well enjoy the room to start throwing their weight around a bit more internationally.
On the other hand, it matters a lot to Israel. Israel is isolated already, and having someone with powerful regional connections against them makes their lives that much more difficult.
As far as I can tell from my position of near-total ignorance, there’s an disparity there - Turkey doesn’t have anything to lose from bad blood. Hell, they might be able to extract concessions out of the US by ratcheting up the tension every now and again.
Couple of things need correcting here.
1. joe6pac writes: “I agree with this but this is Turkey we are talking about and not being as smart as everyone here I don’t remember in their history were they stepped aside or gave up.”
I can give you several very good examples of the Turks getting their asses handed to them by the Russians in the late 19th century. Remember: we are talking about what was once called The Sick Man Of Europe. Everyone is still stuck with this perception that the modern Turks are the same force that came bursting out of the Central Asian wastes and blew up the Byzatines at Manzikert. The Turks are s spent force, imperially and historically. Sure, they are regionally strong. But the vital essence is long gone.
2. Brandon writes: “They are pissed that to do so, they have had to crack down on Islamic sentiment in the country to keep the state secular, which is not particularly publicly popular.”
This is wildly incorrect. Islamists in Turkey are very analogous to Christianists in the US. They are a loud, ugly and very cohesive vocal minority, unlike the Secularists who run the gamut from the Generals, to the hard-Leftists to the Right wing businessmen from Izmir. Turkey, just like America has its ‘blue and red’ states/regions. The dynamic is very similar to that in the US, except it is an East (conservative, religious) versus West (cosmopolitan, secular). And like in America, the Secularists can’t unite to form a strong opposition, not to mention Edorgan’s very adroit economic policy.
3. What Lex says: “This situation calls for some serious statesmanship from a nation allied with both Turkey and Israel. Unfortunately we have Obama, Biden and Clinton. At least two are beholden to Israel and none of them show the least bit of aptitude for foreign relations…much less very delicate ones. The situation being made worse by Obama’s characteristic aversion to decision making.”
Absolutely spot on. If this thing is to spin out of control the fault will lay with the Israelis and the lack of imagination and decisiveness vis-a-vis Obama, Biden and Clinton.
Let me add one more thing: the Turks were integrated to the European state system a very long time ago. In the late 17th century to be exact, when the French used the Sublime Porte against the Austrians. And in that sense, they do give up–and have, unlike many Arab states who have a maximalist position on just about everything (there is a lot of truth to the old saw that the Palestinians never met a good deal they didn’t refuse) and are very recent newcomers to the Westphalian system, being created out of whole cloth by the Sykes-Picot agreement.
Yeah Sean,
“The Turks are s spent force, imperially and historically. ”
Google: Churchill Gallipoli
A man who carries the name of Sean ought well to remember.
http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/gallipoli.htm
Discussion of Turkey’s historical military capacity is ridiculous. Discussing the capabilities of the Ottoman Empire is akin to discussing Austria-Hungary as a Great Power–totally irrelevant to the modern day. Modern day Turkey has a modern, American and European-backed and designed military, and is certainly no pushover. They also have a GDP that is more than three times the size of Israel’s, and significantly greater manpower.
Additionally, they’re a NATO member. Israel is not. I’m far less certain than some here that the Obama administration will value our current relationship with Israel (especially given some of the recent strains, and Petraeus’ speech) over the continued existence and relevance of NATO. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see the US or any NATO power attacking Israel unless something monumentally stupid occurs between now and then, but I’m far from certain that the US and other powers would “deliver rush orders for the IAF” while restricting supplies to Turkey. I agree with Dave that full-scale military assault by Turkey is probably not on the cards, but if they decide to push a policy of brinksmanship, they have international opinion on their side, and I think Israel would ultimately have to back down–whether just out of common sense, or due to significant US pressure.
If the US is going to risk the dissolution of NATO, it’s going to be for something that is in the US’s interest, not to uphold the Gaza blockade. And if it comes down questioning to “what have you done for me lately” with Israel, I don’t think there’s much that they will be able to put forward. God knows the Israel lobby in the US is a strong one, but national security decisions (like the continuation of NATO) will trump political ones every time.
Also, S Brennan–Gallipoli, seriously?? I’m half Aussie, and I know damn well that the Gallipoli campaign was a poorly conceived fiasco from the get-go–it’s FAR from a demonstration of Turkish military might. We Aussies/Brits shot ourselves in the feet for months, and then left. No nation’s glory was won on those beaches.
this is a great post, and i wish i saw it before i commented in the other thread.
i think we are about to see a de facto cold war with israel and turkey, and in that regards israel has much more to lose. turkey could have a new motivation for sending syria, lebanon, and even iran, israeli technology and countermessures. they could certainly start having more military maneuvers with syria, possibly even modernizing their military and potentially creating a defensive pact with them. they could also severely damage US interests by not renewing the leases on american bases, and by denying access to american troops and supplies that are moving out of iraq. all of that would be hugely detrimental and costly to the US.
i don’t know exactly what will happen here; i do think this was a very serious incidence and turkey is a hyper-nationalistic society that is almost fully united against israel at this point, which means there will be a very real, very dynamic shift in the ME.
if was russia or even china, i’d be extending my hand to the turks right now.
To:
Gallipoli, seriously?? I’m half Aussie, and I know damn well… harlequin
“between May 1919 and October 1922. The war was fought between Greece and Turkish revolutionaries of the Turkish National Movement that would later establish the Republic of Turkey.
The Greek campaign was launched because the western Allies, particularly British Prime Minister David Lloyd George, had promised Greece territorial gains at the expense of the Ottoman Empire.
It ended with Greece giving up all territory gained during the war, returning to its pre-war borders, and engaging in a population exchange with the newly established state of Turkey under provisions in the Treaty of Lausanne.
The collective failure of the separate military campaigns of Greece, the Armenians, and the French against the Turkish revolutionaries forced the Allies to abandon the Treaty of Sèvres. Instead, they negotiated a new treaty at Lausanne. This new treaty recognised the independence of the Turkish Republic and its sovereignty over Eastern Thrace and Anatolia.
harlequin,
I don’t know why being half Aussie entitles you to some privileged position in life, last time I interacted with Australian soldiers a sense of entitlement from a vaginal descent was grounds for laughter.
As a US Army Soldier who trained with Turks:
The Turks take their history seriously.
They fight well and take great pride in their soldiering.
They have modern weapons and primal skill.
The Aussies might have been fuck-ups as you say, but few have come away with combat with Turks better off than when they started.
Still, I think Ankara will not have direct confrontation, the Israelis will use the Kurds/US and Turkey will begin it’s inevitable turn away from the west and see Iran in a new light.
…good work IDF
“Time and again, Israel tries to prove that what can’t be solved by force can be solved by more force. Over and over, the policies of force fail.”
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/analysis-israel-has-forgotten-the-lessons-of-the-exodus-1.293391
Wow, S Brennan, way to massively misconstrue my comment. Talk about a straw man. You totally missed my earlier post, it’s quite clear that I respect Turkish fighting capacity. I’m not saying that my being Australian gives me “some privileged position in life”–I’m explaining why I still care about Gallipoli–as would any of those Australians you claimed to have served with. But sure, go off on some random, unrelated tangent, if it pleases you.
Fact is, Gallipoli was a poorly orchestrated mess which had little chance of success from conception through its disastrous execution. The Turks have much better historical conflicts to refer to if they want to demonstrate their own military capacities. My major point, though, was that eighty year old conflicts are a poor representation of current Turkish military might. The fact that they can afford to spend double what the Israelis can on their military is a better representation of their modern capabilities.
Seriously, though, I very much doubt half of what you say if you claim to have spent some time with Australian soldiers and don’t know much about Gallipoli. 25 April is an important day on our calendar for a reason, and any Australian worth his salt would know why.
And what’s with the quote about the Greco-Turkish war?
I’ve always blamed the Turks for the existence of Fox News.
KEITH Murdoch was a brilliant journalist who stared down colonial imperialism and told the world about the suffering, ineptitude and futility of the Gallipoli campaign.
His 8000-word report saw the officer in charge of the Dardanelles campaign recalled and the troops withdrawn from the blood-soaked beaches and hills of Gallipoli….
Murdoch returned to Australia and became on of the country’s most influential newspapermen and was chairman of the Melbourne Herald on his death in 1952 and started the News Ltd empire. His son Rupert is chairman and of News Corporation.
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/04/24/166851_gt_features.html
harlequin115,
Anybody going up-thread will my original remark [not adressed to you..which points out how the Turks beat the living shit out of the commonwealth nations and named the chief architect of the West's idiotic plan...and yes, planning is part of war] and your condemnation based on you being born half Assie.
Good luck with your pathetic put-on, you’re an idiot to think it’ll sell.
S Brennan,
Look, I’ve got no interest in a flame war on such a distantly related topic, but you’ve got to phrase your arguments a little better. To claim the turks “beat the living shit out of the commonwealth nations” when referring to what was essentially a side conflict in the middle of the first World War is a massive overstatement. I’m glad you know Churchill planned and supported the Gallipoli landings, but it looks like you’re still missing the point. The reason I referenced being half Aussie, as I’ve stated, is that the Gallipoli campaign has a cultural impact. Clearly you know nothing of that, which, as I’ve said, for someone who claims to have served with Australians is pretty surprising.
You want to call what I’ve said a “pathetic put-on”, then go ahead, but it’s pretty embarrassing for you to think that anyone who knows anything about Gallipoli will think it was anything but a fiasco. I’m not, and never was, taking away from the Turks. I’m just saying that a) historical demonstrations of military might are useless in evaluating modern capacities, and b) Gallipoli is probably the worst example of a Turkish historical victory you could use. It’d be like arguing the US victory at New Orleans in 1814-5 as being a prime example of US military prowess–no it wasn’t, it was a fiasco on the part of the opposition, and far better examples of military capacity exist.
But sure, you served with Australians and Turks, so clearly that justifies every ignorant comment you’ll ever make on the subject.
Over the years Israel completely ignored their Palestinian neighbors and with a deceptive precepts and kept taken over and over again Palestinian life’s and land. EU and US has turned into two blind man, hearing yet ignoring the facts of Israels war crimes and most specially Jews terrible habit of land grab and stealing. Finally the collective punishment of people of Gaza that has been dragging along and no EU nation seems to pay attention to open prison Palestinians are forced to live.
With the latest event of activists massacre looks like finally Turkey had enough is enough with Israels nonsense and committing evil crimes under the false pretexts of being victim. They have always presented their offensive actions as “defense”. Bulldoze the olive trees and homes, kill the animals and children, cut off the water supply, build 20 ft tall miles of concrete walls for defense.
Total perversion of peace and harmony. Doesn’t sound like a big crocodile that lives in a small pond and eats every creature that comes to drink little water.
How long will the big croc be able to live in a small pond?
Turkey’s roots comes from ancient warriors and empires and deep historic roots, on the other hand Israel is a nation “just like a Somali pirates” all polarized under the umbrella of Israel but unfortunately the leadership of Israel doesn’t represent true Jews either. Gazing upon historic records don’t forget who crucified the Jesus. It was on that ancient land that innocent mans blood 2000 years a go was shed. Looks like an ancient Karma returns with a mighty momentum.
This will be the greatest test of the will of the Nations, but more so Test for Israel. Fear comes from guilt, we will see how this massive guilt consciousness persecution of Palestinians will cause Israel to act? Turkey has most definitely the will and the military power to act, hopefully this won’t turn in to a terrible middle east III ww.
According to: Blind Bulgarian prophet “Baba Vanga”
2010: World War 3 begins in November 2010. Starting as a regular war, it will progress to a nuclear and chemical war. Vanga says the war will be finished by October 2014.
Human greed and selfishness is the cause all evil and distraction.
harlequin115,
Read, learn and STFU, you are a stupid git
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia_Treaty_Organization
* Australia
* France
* New Zealand
* Pakistan (including East Pakistan, now Bangladesh)
* Philippines
* Republic of China (Taiwan)
* United Kingdom
* United States
NATO has added new members seven times since first forming in 1949 (the last two in 2009). NATO comprises 28 members: Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO
When I was in a lot of these NATO countries were not
S Brennan,
You can claim I’m a stupid git, but please tell me what SEATO has to do with anything? Or the fact that NATO has grown over the years? What is your point, and what in god’s name does it have to do with anything I spoke about?
Are you trying to say something about my contention that the US might value the NATO alliance above maintaining Israel’s blockade of Gaza? That’s the only thing I can think of from this page that might relate…..
And if so, what does that have to do with SEATO? They sound similar, but neither Turkey nor Israel ever were part of SEATO.
Please enlighten me.
S Brennan,
Are you trying to suggest that because SEATO was unsuccessful that the US doesn’t value NATO highly? I can’t imagine you are suggesting that, so I honestly don’t understand the relevance.
I look forward to your response.
Isn’t something missing here?
Besides the fact that wars are also fought through espionage, propaganda, diplomatic alliances, funding, terror, etc., the fact is that a war between the Zionist Entity and Turkey could never just involve only those two belligerents.
Also involved would be Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinians in general (in the ZEOP, the West Bank, Gaza, and outside Palestine), Jews in general, and Turks in General (including millions in Germany).
Any weakness in the Zionist Entity will be exploited by its enemies. Russia would not be uninvolved. Russia or Iran or Syria would be very careful not to get openly involved, unless they see a chance of getting rid of this plague for good. The Jews backed and armed and funded the Georgian assault on Russians in South Ossetia.
Also, any hostilities will exacerbate American military and diplomatic problems in Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Kyrgyzstan, etc.
In terms of international law, I’m sure that the Jews have no “right” to keep anybody from approaching the Gaza shore. It’s just that no other state has ever done it, since to do so would have been too risky. But now that the Turk’s blood is up, if their navy accompany ships into Gaza, having announced that Gaza is Palestinian and the waters are under the authority of Hamas, what will the Jews do? They will be asking, “Can we afford to allow it? Can we afford not to?” Finally a lose-lose situation for the Jews occupying Palestine!
Any successful Turkish landing in Gaza will set an international precedent.
If I were in charge of Turkey, I’d throw caution to the wind, and start supplying non-military small boats to the Palestinians in Gaza, supply them with Turkish naval escorts, dare the Jews to sink them, and get Hamas to declare the port open to international traffic. At the very least, international supporters of Palestine would organize further humanitarian shipments. I think this would be more stable than allowing the current status quo, since the Jews are year-by-year more insane, and will eventually cause a large regional war anyway, no matter what.
The real conflict is probably between the Turkish navy (and maybe air force) and the Israeli air force. In 1967 the Israelis attacked a U.S. navy ship and killed 34 sailors and wounded 171. They got away with it. If the US failed to defend the Liberty, the won’t defend Turkish ships either.
This comes down to two things: the Turkish air force vs. the Israeli air force. The Israelis enjoy established local bases. If Turkey makes this a prolonged conflict, Israel loses. If Israel can make this a quick conflict they will win.
The self interest of Israel would be best served by devising a solution for an independent, demilitarized Palestine. These actions are against the long term interests of Israel but, hey ….
Wow, sorry I opened up that can of worms.
All I will say is this: as I wrote before, Turkey is a serious regional power, one not to be underestimated.
That being said, I stand by my earlier comments: modern Turkey and Turks are not the same people who stormed the gates of Vienna, or tangled with Tamerlame at the Battle of Angora, or the same peoples who routed the combined armies of the West at Nicopolis. Turkey is now a nation of Turks (with a substantial minority of Kurds) with a homeland in Anatolia. The Balkan empire is gone. The Mahgrebi empire, stretching almost to the Pillars of Hercules is long gone. The Middle Eastern Empire stretching to the Persian Gulf and the Hejaz is gone.
Whether you like Israel or not, it is ridiculous to think that Turkey could take them Turkish forces would be destroyed before they came near Israel borders. Experience and survival outweigh simple numerical force as in Israel’s past conflicts.
Darrell,
I’d argue that’s a apples to oranges comparison. Turkey is a major regional power, and Israel’s never fought a nation like it. Turkey has the second largest military in NATO (after the US) and is a properly equipped fighting force. Israel spends more on its military than Syria, Egypt, and Jordan combined, and was able to decisively beat them multiple times because it had better technology and training. By contrast, the Turks spend twice as much on their military as the Israelis (just under $20 billion per year to just over $10 billion). You might be able to argue that the Israelis have better trained forces than Turkey, although it’s certainly not certain–the Turks train with the finest militaries in the world, and they’re engaged in constant guerilla conflicts–but the Turks have equally effective equipment, and more of it. They also have a Navy which dwarfs Israel’s, and an Air Force of comparable size and effectiveness. Whether they can effectively project power is a question, as they don’t have aircraft carriers, but Israel is in their neighborhood.
This is not a simple matter of Israel taking on a technologically and tactically inferior opponent who has numerical superiority. This would be a conflict with a military that is on par with Israel’s in terms of capabilities, but much larger.
If war happened when it made sense, it would never happen.
it does not make strategic sense for Turkey to go to the mat for what is basically an insult to the flag instead of a threat to a vital interest.
Uhm, Osama bin Laden thought the same thing. There is no U.S. vital interest in Afghanistan. Point being, nations get pissed when some jerks kill a bunch of their civilians. The Turkish pro-Palestinian activists gambled that the Israelis would behave like total schmucks, and the Israelis fell right into the trap.
Regarding the Turkish strategic depth: Turkey manufactures their own F-16 fighter jets under license and is pretty much self-sufficient there, manufacturing all of the common repair parts themselves. Their F-16’s have been modified to be able to fire French weapons so if the U.S. cuts them off, they just switch to French weaponry, no big deal. Their frigates are all U.S. build but use standard NATO munitions and have been upgraded with French missiles. Their tank force actually is the biggest problem, the Leopards of course are German but they still have quite a number of Vietnam-era M60’s that have been upgraded with Israeli turrets (to carry 120mm main guns) and Israeli-designed applique armor. Still, they have the capability to manufacture any repair parts they need themselves — Turkey has their own manufacturing base, they’re not Syria North.
I do agree that the most likely outcome if Israel escalates by sinking a Turkish military vessel would be a blockade rather than an invasion, both for the reasons mentioned above, and because an invasion would threaten the very existence of the Israeli state — and Tel Nof and the “Masada Option” *would* be activated at that point (i.e., if you’re going to die anyhow, might as well do it on your own terms by nuking your opponent’s cities first). Threatening the existence of a nuclear power is not something anybody’s in any hurry to do (thus why North Korea is so eager to have nukes)…
– Badtux the War Penguin
As long we are doing hypotheticals, as if the US would just be standing by.
All these hypotheticals have missed out on one thing. The galvanising of the Muslim-Arab world. If and When Turkey goes to war with Israel, don’t be too surprised Iran, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and not to mention Turkmen majority states like Azerbaijian etc. might just join in the fray. Resistance will be stepped up in Palestine itself as well as in Iraq. More American lives will go down the blood drain. If US sticks its nose in too deep on teh side of Israel, Russia and even China will step in. Israel has really screwed itself this time. The US should now abandon its stupid and blind support for a rogue state that actually has no respect for American interests or American values and even look down on Christianity. The dismantling of Israel will be the greatest global achievement ever conceived as it will lead to lasting global peace. Israel is a cancer who’s time has run out. Ahmedinejad’s comment that the Israeli regime will soon come to an end (No, he did not say he wants to wipe Israel off the map - that’s zionist media propaganda) may well prove to be prophecy after all!
Turkey, a NATO member, could then draw the same response of the IDF, which basically would turn this into an act of war.”
http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/06/01/free-gaza-flotilla-affair-stumbles-toward-open-war/
Bollocks. Boarding a vessel under turkish flag in international waters is an act of war, killing civilians in the act is a war crime. Israel can choose to acknowledge this by insisting that the soldiers were carrying out orders (sounds familiar), or it can try to evade the issue by surrendering to turkish investigation and handing over the suspects to be tried under turkish law for murder, disclaiming government responsibility.
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2010/05/the_legal_posit.html
Turkey would be in its right to demand NATO assistance already, but they have no reasons yet to embarrass the US and the Europeans as long as they have free license to embarrass Israel. The really relevant question is to what extent this incident provides ammunition for the domestic conflict between secular military and non-secular government – in Turkey, not Israel. In Israel, religious fanatics have corrupted both government and military beyond repair.
“it does not make strategic sense for Turkey to go to the mat for what is basically an insult to the flag instead of a threat to a vital interest.”
Simply entering into a state of hostility against the Jew state, even without any combat, would make Turkey the Middle East superpower, with the respect and support of most people in the region.
The Jews cannot defeat Turkey.
Th Jews can’t afford to have Turks as enemies.
They are already enemies of the majority of the Jordanian and Egyptian and Iraqi and Lebanese populace. (Look at Michel Aoun and other Maronites. They are now allied with Hizbollah. They recognize reality.) The Jews are already in a state of hostilities with Syria and Iran. All over the world, including even in the US, the shift of popular opinion going against the Jews.
The Turks don’t need to attack the Jew state. Simply declaring that they are in a state of hostilities would set a precedent. Syria and Iran will be emboldened. The three states would certainly be sure to get together and see if they could work out some sort of informal strategic alliance, setting out each other’s objectives, and finding out where they can support each other and where they can agree to stay out of each other’s way. They don’t need to be formal allies.
The point is, the world situation would shift.
The public in the West would feel emboldened to speak against the Jews in situations where no people stupidly fear being accused of “antishemitism”.
The gloves would be off. The “Oy Vey! Poor Juden! The Holohoax!” propaganda would fall on deaf ears.
This is correct: “If US sticks its nose in too deep on the side of Israel, Russia and even China will step in. Israel has really screwed itself this time.”
Some folk wisdom, which I agree with:
* The Jews always go too far. *
They can’t help themselves. Jewish society and culture is so diseased that they can’t stop themselves from self-destruction.
Their policies always lead to chaos. They are unstable, twisted, unbalanced.
If the Jews had any sense, they’d agree to a Arab-Jewish Palestinian confederation, or they’d come to terms with an independent Palestine and agree to a more modest Jewish state, abandon all “settlements” etc, end the “right of return” and so on. But this won’t happen. They are bent on going down in flames.
Correction
“no people stupidly fear being accused of “antishemitism”.”
Should be:
“now people stupidly fear being accused of “antishemitism”.”
“Remember: we are talking about what was once called The Sick Man Of Europe.”
Sick after ruling for 1000 years. Modern Turks are mostly Europeans, but never underestimate them. Their army is modern, they have plenty of people, history and they are the 16th world economy.