Most favored cartels and car bombs
Escalation in violence and expansion of tactics is often the steps taken by a group that is losing a fight. I have thought that systemic attacks on Mexican state and economic infrastructure would be initially engaged by groups that are losing ground under the current set of rules and norms that limit violence to personal weapons.
One of the options for managing violence in northern Mexico is for the government to embrace a most favored cartel (mfc). Since at least April of this year, the Sinaloa cartel has been rumored to be a contender for the spot of the most favored cartel. The argument is that there is a tacit agreement that the MFC and the Mexican government would cooperate with each other to suppress other cartels. The MFC would agree to divert some of its kickbacks to the relevant governmental elites as well as maintain urban security with a tolerable and much lower level of violence as its competitors would no longer be alive or competing with it.
If this is true, or perceived to be true by groups that are getting pushed out of their turf and their market space by a combination of Sinaloa Cartel and government pressure, then escalation is a reasonable alternative to surrender and death. And it appears that the car bomb in Juarez is part of a strategy or at least a PR push to wedge the government from the perceived MFC. The El-Paso Times has more:
The unsigned message told the FBI and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration to investigate authorities that support the Sinaloa drug cartel.
Otherwise, there will be another car bomb placed in Juárez to kill federal police, the threat stated.
“If in 15 days, there is no response with detention of corrupt federales, we will put a car with 100 kilos of C4,” the message read.
100 kilograms of C-4 or more likely commercial grade Tovex plastic explosive is the size of a market-busting, high fatality car bomb that we routinely see in Iraq. If an attack is aimed at hard target such as a Mexican Army base compound, it should breach the walls and cause significant casualties. If such an attack is aimed at soft targets such as a market, a park or a soccer field, civilian casualties could be very high. Either way, if an attack goes off in the next couple of weeks, it is a predictable escalation of violence from losing groups. From there, economic systems disruption is not too far of a step.
Comments are closed.
We are living sci-fi. As I recall,Neal Stephenson’s Snow Crash had the Italian-American mafia in the MFC position in the USA—one of the few remaining forces in favour of an orderly society.
What civic-minded extortionists! They’re not demanding the US Government pay ransom or release of a prisoner, they’re asking for FBI and DEA agents to conduct a criminal investigation– or watch out America, we’re going to bomb… Mexico.
I like where their head is at, but I think they need to work on some game theory. The US Government doesn’t care about violence in Mexico, it cares about violence in the US. Perhaps a better sales pitch would have been to contact Uncle Sam quietly and propose a deal, the cartel will keep drug trade in the United States nonviolent and away from minors and other civilians — they’ll even throw in stopping illegal border crossings, in exchange the US Government will help their new most favored cartel take out the rival cartels and their patrons in Mexico.
Thanks for tracking this, Mr. Anderson. It’s downright fascinating. Christ, the externalities of this drug “war.” It’s putting me past anger… and that can’t be good…
@Mandos
Forget sci-fi. Think “Kennedy assassination” and MFC (Mafia.)
If and when the U.S. legalizes ALL drugs; the cartels will retreat to insignificance. But on the other hand; since when has Victorian, Christian, fundamentalist, under educated, provincial, ignorant, Norte Americanos understood much of anything regarding social responsibility?
I was on vacation and the motel had Fox News running in the lobby. The story was about Mexican border crossing and showed film from a vigilante group that was monitoring a stretch of border. The reporter said that Mexicans were paying $75,000 for the service.
This got my head to spinning. Nobody spends $75 K to get a $5 an hour job and the economy is working against much more for the unskilled. The rich and educated or just the rich can arrange legal immigration for less than $75 K. This is either a complete lie or it represents something else. Well, my thought was that the losers in the drug war need to get out and need to go incognito. They have money, lack time, and may not have official connections.
This article fits right in with my theory. Does this exodus remind anyone of “Scarface”? Tony Montana. Tell me again how we can afford a million people in jail or prison for drug crimes when we can’t repair highways or bridges, keep schools going, or pay unemployment or future Social Security benefits. Are these people nuts or just selfish and amoral? Both?