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Egypt: those who make peaceful change impossible —

2014 June 7
by Ian Welsh

To point out the obvious, Egypt’s judges have effectively gone over to the junta.  What this means, if you are in the opposition (violent or otherwise) is that if there is another revolution, those judges go.  You completely sideline them from power and rip out the heart of the current judiciary, along with ALL senior civil servants (since they sabotaged the previous, democratic government, by making sure basic services like power didn’t work.)

You can’t have a revolution in Egypt which accommodates anyone who was in bed with the previous regime.  Sadly, this will include much of the secular opposition, who supported Sisi’s coup.  Having proved that they do not believe in democracy, and that they can’t be trusted not to back the military, they will have to be sidelined, though since they have no actual power nor the willingness to engage in violence, they need not be killed (they don’t have the guts, themselves, to pull of a coup.)

This is a basic application of JFK’s maxim that that those who make peaceful change impossible, make violent change inevitable.  I don’t like how the Muslim Brotherhood ruled, but Sisi is far, far worse.  Those who oppose him are entirely justified in their use of violence, and have so far been more discriminate in its use that the army or the police.

Egypt’s economic situation will continue to get worse over the long run.  The country cannot feed itself, and offers little that the world needs.  The fat classes (and in Egypt it easy to tell who is part of the system and who isn’t, because their poor people aren’t fat), will eventually lose power.  When they do, those who take control will not be, as Morsi was, willing to make accommodations with the old regime.  Nor should they.

2 Responses
  1. Celsius 233 permalink
    June 8, 2014

    It’s not just Egypt; it’s the world wide alignment, and that’s spooky.
    Orwell’s 1984 had an alignment consisting of;
    Oceania covers the entire continents of America and Oceania and the British Isles, the main location for the novel, in which they are referred to as ‘Airstrip One’.
    Eurasia; covers Europe and (more or less) the entire Soviet Union.
    And Eastasia; covers Japan, Korea, China and northern India.
    I’m assuming all of Asia (Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao, Malaysia, etc.)
    It would appear this is exactly the dynamic of now!
    Talk about self-fulfilling prophecy…

  2. Sterling86 permalink
    June 8, 2014

    Modern Turkey provides an interesting example, there were several populist / islamist presidents that made it into power only to be thrown out by civil service. The ergenekon trials were able to overthrow the deep state recently without causing huge disruption. If one were to fire all of the civil service at once then you run into the same problem that Morsi ran into where the power, water, food, security, et cetera stop working all at once. Then you lose whatever popularity that you had to begin with, and it becomes easier for the now out-of-power ex-civil service to push you out.

    The civil service is the real power in any country. So if you want power you can be like Hezbollah and build a parallel state which has its own civil service, or you can be like Fethullah Gulen and conspire to place your own ideological supporters into the civil service.

    http://takimag.com/article/the_shadowy_imam_of_the_poconos_steve_sailer/print

    I know that its Steve Sailer, but the readers here should hold their noses and take the time to read it with an open mind.

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