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Brexit Open Thread

2016 June 23
tags:
by Ian Welsh

It’s the day. Odds seem to be in favor of Remain. Feel free to discuss here, or other things.

39 Responses
  1. markfromireland permalink
    June 23, 2016

    Too close to call – for example storms and flooding in London and South East will probably affect turnout in a densely populated and strongly “Remain” part of the country.

  2. Paul permalink
    June 23, 2016

    As I understand it, major banks are the only people performing exit polls today. Those should be generating some statistically significant data by now. Sterling and (less so) shares seem to be on something of a rip.

  3. Hugh permalink
    June 23, 2016

    I think it is too close to call. Usually close polls result in the status quo winning. But just because today is sunny doesn’t mean it might not rain. Saw a segment on CNBC with a London oddsmaker. He said that more than 70% of the money was on Remain, but that this was because Remain bets were about 6 times bigger than Brexit bets. The majority of bets were actually on Brexit.

  4. markfromireland permalink
    June 23, 2016

    @ Hugh,

    Yes you’re right. BUT the pollsters really got it wrong last UK election. As a Labour friend of mine put it – what we were hearing on the doorstep was different from what the pollsters were getting.

    That could be the case again.

    One thing I find very disappointing is how few voices on the left were raised in favour of exit and yet I know plenty of committed socialists who want out.

    It was (I think) a serious mistake to let the right dominate the exit campaign. (And yes I’m aware of the “it’s an internal Tory spat” school of thought.)

    I think there’s a groundswell of not so much left as anti-establishment feeling. A convincing socialist movement could go far but so could a right-wing populist movement. We may yet see a Tory split.

  5. markfromireland permalink
    June 23, 2016

    No idea what in my last comment triggered moderation. Anyway it’ll be a few hours before there’re meaningful results. At present there’s a poll 52% remain and 48% leave and just to make it fun there’s another poll that’s 48% remain and 52% leave.

  6. June 23, 2016

    Still early… but “leave” is ahead.

  7. Oaktown Girl permalink
    June 23, 2016

    Just got home, I have no idea what the status is right now as far as results. I sure wish theses comments had a time stamp! (But I appreciate the open thread, Ian).
    7:09 pm Pacific Time : )

  8. Lef permalink
    June 23, 2016

    Bloomberg seems to have up to date results:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-referendum/

  9. Thomas permalink
    June 23, 2016

    Please, some updates.
    I live in the Sierras of Mexico,
    high up, and want to know what
    the hell happened.
    Please, a short update.

  10. Lef permalink
    June 23, 2016

    a few more

    google brexit results:
    https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=brexit

    and Zero Hedge, if you can put up with it… suggest you avoid their comments section:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-23/nailbiter-continues-here-are-first-official-results-and-they-give-bremain-some-hope

    Bloomberg still seems to be the most quickly updated.

  11. Michael permalink
    June 23, 2016

    Leave is ahead by almost 500,000 votes.
    BBC world service has a chap from Oxford with an RP accent saying this result is a bombshell.

  12. Oaktown Girl permalink
    June 23, 2016

    Thank you, Lef! Time stamp, folks, time stamp!

    I saw this awesome re-tweet on Ian’s twitter feed –
    https://twitter.com/polizeros/status/746050798790991873

    8:09 pm Pac Time – just on GP, not that this comment is time sensitive. 🙂

  13. Thomas permalink
    June 23, 2016

    Thanks for the Bloomberg-link.
    Looks ansolutely GREAT at this time !!!
    51.2 for leaving !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Hope that will solidify as the night grows…

  14. Charlie Dozen permalink
    June 23, 2016

    BBC just called it for Leave.

  15. lef permalink
    June 23, 2016

    As much as zero hedge is a giant pile of racist dog shit, their page gives some timely market details. It’s interesting to see the GBP swing and other markets move as the results creep in.

    On the plus side, Cameron is out either way. On the downside, what Oaktown Girl said.

    “A little bit of imagination”, that’s what my 4 year old student kept saying yesterday when he was having trouble with the puzzles he was trying to solve. If a 4 year old can figure out how to move forward, we should take a look at his playbook.

  16. anonymous coward permalink
    June 23, 2016

    BBC declares Brexit has won.

  17. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    Telegraph headline:

    Brexit wins as Britain votes to leave the European Union

    Financial Times:

    EU Referendum — Market shockwaves as results point to Brexit

    BBC

    BBC forecasts UK vote to leave EU

    Guardian Summary as :

    We’ve had 319 out of 382 results in now. Here are the figures.

    Areas

    Remain: 102

    Leave: 217

    Votes

    Remain: 12,991,972 (48.4%)

    Leave: 13,842,109 (51.6%)

    I’m looking at various investor feeds – they’re in shock and indices plumetting. The conventional wisdom amongs the financial parasitic class was that the British would do as they’re told. The pound appears to be in free fall.

    1 USD = 0.742475 GBP 1 GBP = 1.34685 USD

    1 EUR = 0.813799 GBP 1 GBP = 1.22881 EUR

  18. NLK permalink
    June 24, 2016

    That was a nice kick to the balls to neoliberals.

  19. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    Next stop: Scotland votes to leave UK.

    Sweden and Denmark will be the next EU referenda (at a guess) thereafter there’s large and growing larger movements for referenda in France and the Netherlands.

    The German demand for a drang nach osten appears to have backfired a bit. Merkel almost as badly wounded as Cameron.

  20. Shh permalink
    June 24, 2016

    Ah the proles are at it again. tee hee. or should I say “tick-tock”

    And on a wholly unrelated note: @Oaktown Girl: f”reals? O’town is my town and glad to see I’m not the only one. Ghost town coming up!

    As I was sayin: a symbolic vote ain’t moving the needle. Personally I say fuck the EU and the hypnosis of the hive mind or borg or whatever the hell kool-aid, cultish cracker ass shit people are on. Time for the paradigm to die. This time, let’s try for a lot less blood shed and a lot more growth…psychic, not economic.

    Sham! I cast out the demon of neoliberal narcissism! be gone devil of paternalistic Capitalism and tiny peni!!

    Remember, evolution occurs along many continua, consciousness among them. Punctuated equilibrium…let’s punctuate this mo’ fo’ fo’sho’

  21. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    EU referendum: Full details of every Scottish result

    Every area voted to stay in the EU, with the UK heading for Brexit.

    05:58 24/06/2016 UK Time

  22. Oaktown Girl permalink
    June 24, 2016

    US cable news media saying the Brexit vote was almost all about anti-immigrant sentiment, and they seem to be almost giddy with their comparisons to Trump voters.

    So far I’ve seen only brief (and and mostly dismissive) comments from the “Experts” about people voting for their economic interests, but even those comments are are framed in terms of “feelings” with no discussion of facts, i.e. “People *feel* they’ve been left behind by globalization, and “People *feel* free trade has not been good for them.”

    And of course lots hyperventilating about where the Prime Minister goes from here – even more material to avoid talking about substantive issues.

  23. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    @ oaktown girl:

    I’d stick to UK media if I were you. Most American “reporters” and “commentators” haven’t the faintest idea about anything that happens outside the US and they’ve been pretty crap about events and trends in the US.

    http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Hot+Topics/EU+Referendum~Brexit

    or any major uk newspaper or aunty

  24. Oaktown Girl permalink
    June 24, 2016

    @Shh – Hello there!
    And hello to all the rest y’all, too!

  25. Another Anon permalink
    June 24, 2016

    Some anonymous Labourite low-life quoted in the Telegraph said he hoped that the referendum would lead to an early election which Labour would lose as this would be a quick way to get rid of Corby.
    1:17 AM EDST

  26. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    And now the Article 50 Process will be invoked. Here’s the text in full:

    Article 50

    1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

    3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

    4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

    A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

    5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

    The kicker is in Nº 2 and 4:

    It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

    and

    A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

  27. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    Oops I forgot to mention above that the Financial Times has dropped their paywall for UK Referendum coverage.

    https://next.ft.com/eu-referendum

  28. Some Guy permalink
    June 24, 2016

    I said I would be shocked if ‘Leave’ won, and so I am, but pleasantly so I must say.

    I can’t improve on NLK’s concise comment, but just before the votes started to come in, the Guardian live feed posted a pair of pictures, one from a ‘remain’ event and one from a ‘leave’ event:

    Link

    The ‘remain’ photo was a group of happy young photogenic people of the sort you might see in a corporate brochure standing and cheering. The ‘leave’ photo was an overweight middle-aged woman, with a large frown and seemingly alone in the room, per the photo.

    I saw it and I thought to myself, what a perfect example of how disgusting and morally bankrupt the neoliberals and their media toadies have become, god I hope leave wins.

    And so it did.

    I briefly tuned in to some of the ITV coverage hoping to see some very sad faces, and did I ever!

    The working class hasn’t had many victories in the last 35 years, but they earned one tonight. Bravo.

  29. Ian Welsh permalink
    June 24, 2016

    Wow, I am genuinely surprised. Post on consequences written and now at top. (Would have commented earlier, but was in bed. And a lovely sleep it was.)

  30. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    As of 06:40 24/06/2016 UK time only three constituencies have yet to declare results. Remain would now need more votes than there are left to count. The UK has voted to leave the EU.

  31. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    This is twice the polling firms have got it badly wrong.

  32. Oaktown Girl permalink
    June 24, 2016

    @Another Anon – way to get me pissed off and riled up right before I have to go to bed and face another day of neoliberal workplace misery. Not that I’m complaining since I did my own bit of “share the misery” with my cable news comment. It’s nice to have a place to vent among people who understand why you want to tear your hair out. And thanks for your time stamp – East Coast!

    @MarkfromIreland – thanks for the links and updates. I will have to wait until tomorrow to dig into Article 50. Thanks for your time stamp – even though I know you’re across the pond it’s still cool to see that.

    @Some Guy – you didn’t even need to post the photo link you described it so well. Thanks for sharing the misery.

    Good night, everybody.
    11:02 PM PST

  33. June 24, 2016

    Fee at last! (sic)

    Only the current generation of neoliberal elites could fuck it up twice. UK rejected the euro, and is now rejecting the whole thing. now the question with a leave UK is how badly does the EU want the British in.

  34. June 24, 2016

    ooo… PM out.

  35. markfromireland permalink
    June 24, 2016

    @ stirling – I don’t expect Osborne to last long either ( or Carney come to that ).

  36. June 24, 2016

    He already exited.

    The question is… do they want a Thatcherite Tory party or a socialist labor party or will something, out of the midst?

    that something about leave … it makes politics exciting again.

  37. June 24, 2016

    INDEPENDENCE DAY! 51.9% vote to LEAVE the abominable European Union.

    For the past four weeks I have been up campaigning from 5am to 5pm. I registered as an independent campaigner and produced my own leaflet. In Ealing, West London we achieved 40%, which is way ahead of expectations for London. I produced my own leaflet, which you can find on jepoynton.com.

    The future is bright. The future is INDEPENDENT! Phew! What a relief! I am now going on holiday to France!

  38. Jill permalink
    June 24, 2016

    I’ve been reading what many ordinary people are saying and they certainly do see the Brexit as taking back their democracy from powerful, unaccountable oligarchs. The oligarchs have been shouting that anyone who voted for Brexit is racist and ignorant. It is this point I would like to address.

    The oligarchs are racists. They don’t call themselves that and their adoring fawners never mention it either, but it doesn’t mean they’re not . Making war on black and brown people across the globe, destroying natural resources in the lands of “inferiors”, ruining people of color in one’s own nation is racist.

    What the powerful have going for them isn’t some moral superiority, its ownership of communication. This allows them to avoid being called on the carpet for their own racist actions. Yet, truth telling about the powerful is precisely what is desperately needed.

    The oligarchs are also classist. So when you hear the oligarchy accusing the troglodytes of serious moral flaws I would keep in mind that our moral “betters” are strip mining the entire earth, wreaking it and putting great numbers of people into deep poverty. Job Well Done-here, here!

    I’m certain the empire will strike back. Corporations and their political minions are not going down without a fight. However, we can deprive them of one of their most powerful weapons, propaganda, by turning the lens of race and class onto their actions.

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